Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Wednesday's Waves - Small and Clean

Wednesday is looking pretty weak...overall I don't think it is going to be much of a surf day.

Our SSW swell will have mostly faded out while WNW energy (mostly local windswell) will remain on the small side. Add in that we still have some pretty fat (no ph in this one) tides and I think that we have a recipe for small gutless surf.

Average spots will be in the knee high range with some rare waist high sets. Expect almost all of the surf to mush/shorebreak out as the tide fills in midmorning.

The top S-SW facing spots will see mostly knee-waist high waves on inconsistent sets through the morning. A few of the best breaks may have some chest high waves sneaking through at times. The building tide-swamp will kill off any sort of fun at these spots too.

Winds look good for the morning...mostly light and variable to light offshore. Winds pick up out of the W-NW around 10-15 knots (surprise!) by the afternoon.

Personally I am not going to spend a lot of time thinking about surfing on Wednesday...I may load up the longboard or my small wave fishy board and swing by the beach in the morning but I think it is going to be hard sell to get myself to paddle out. If you aren't close to the water I wouldn't spend any significant time/money/gas trying to check it...maybe just a camera check on the lower tides in the morning and then get back to surfing your pillow.

Tides for Wednesday

04:15AM 1.5' Low
10:20AM 5.7' High
05:20PM 0.3' Low
11:22PM 3.9' High

Monday, September 29, 2008

Swell Alert for NorCal - Did someone order winter swell?

Hey gang...looks like the NPAC is starting to get pretty active...current forecast charts are calling for a strong storm to form in the Gulf of Alaska in about 4-5 days.

I wanted to give you a heads up but personally I am still sort of taking the current North Pacific long-range forecasts with a grain of salt...they get a bit squirrely as we switch seasons and sometimes they can overcall the first few swells before they get dialed in. Hopefully this will come together like the model is indicating but I would definitely plan on waiting for updates before committing any money or travel time to this one.

Based on the current forecasts we are going to see this new storm move into the Gulf with 40-knot+ winds, and seas in 30-35' range. A lot of the seas will be raw sloppy storm swell but there will be some pretty significant medium/long-period swell energy hiding in there as well.

The majority of the energy from this system will be aimed at Northern and Central California...SoCal will get some swell from this storm but Point Conception and the Nearshore islands are going to shadow most of the energy and wave heights will be much, much smaller than spots further north.

Check out the WavewatchIII forecast...this is about 4.5 to 5 days out...

You can see on this model that most of the fetch and large seas are going to sit outside of the SoCal window.

Northern and Central California on the other hand are going to get the full dosage of the swell and probably weather as well. Hopefully the swell energy will be able to outrun the storm itself and set up a couple of days of heavy surf before the weather turns nasty.

At this point I am looking for this new W-WNW swell (280-300) to start hitting Northern and Central California late on October 4th...and then peaking with double-triple overhead+ surf by Oct 5-6th.

SoCal will see this energy late on the 5th...filling in the Northern Counties (like Santa Barbara and Ventura) before sunset...but the main push of NW swell (290-300) will hit on the 6th and hold over into the 7th. I am looking for the better winter spots to see shoulder-head high surf at this point...maybe a few bigger sets at the top spots.

As always with these types of storms a lot depends on how the system actually develops...so make sure to check back for updates (maybe SoCal will get lucky with more fetch in our window!)

Tuesday's Surf - Smaller but cleaner

Tuesday isn't going to be much of a surf day but there may be a couple of rideable pockets in the morning.

Our swell mix will be fading and the tides will still be pretty high throughout the day which is going to hurt shape even more. Our mix of SW swell that peaked over the weekend will continue to fade on Tuesday as well as our background WNW windswell.

Average spots will see inconsistent surf in the waist high range with a few waist high+ sets at the average combo spots.

Standouts, and I use the term loosely, will be more in the waist-chest high range with a few sets that near shoulder high on the right tides.

Winds will finally start to improve on Tuesday and we should see mostly light and variable conditions through the morning with even a few areas of light offshore flow. Check out the NRL COAMPS model...this is for tomorrow morning at 5am.

You can see some light offshore flow for a few areas tomorrow..and some sort of funky variable stuff around South OC/North SD. I would probably use this wind forecast with a grain of salt and plan on mostly light winds for the whole SoCal region then if it is actually cleaner than that it is a bonus.

I wish that we had a bit more swell tomorrow, or at least enough to break through the higher morning tide. Fortunately the high tide peak is now around 10am, which should give us a slightly larger dawn patrol window. Look for the biggest waves in the OC/SD areas with southerly exposure. It won't be worth spending any sort of time on the road to surf on Tuesday but if you need to get a surf in try and get it early in the morning...it will be better than watching the stockbrokers randomly jumping out of windows as the market continues to crash.

Tides for Tuesday

03:53AM 1.1' Low
09:57AM 5.7' High
04:41PM 0.2' Low
10:40PM 4.3' High

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Monday’s Surf – Less swell with some funky weather

I don’t know who ordered spring weather for the fall but I am filing a complaint…this is getting lame. The weather should be clear, crisp and cold in the AM with some offshore fall cleanliness…not foggy and bumpy with W-WSW winds. Anyway I don’t know about you but I am over it.

Monday will be much like the weekend, sort of surfable at the right spots, but textured and sort blah everywhere else. Not really a surf day but rideable if you are desperate.

Our swell will be a mix of SSW’ers, one fading and a smaller one limping in over the remnants of the first one. There will also be some minor WNW energy in the background but not enough to do anything surfwise.

Average spots will hold around waist-chest high. The better SSW facing breaks of Orange County and San Diego will have shoulder high sets. Top spots may be slightly bigger on inconsistent sets through the tide push.

Winds are forecast to be light onshore through the morning, generally below 10 knots but putting up some bump in the more exposed areas. Afternoon winds come onshore out of the WNW around 12-15 knots. The fog will be on it again in the morning so expect some nastiness from that as well.

If you have a spot that can knock down the wind then the morning is going to be your best call..but try and get on it early the 5.5’+ high tide is going to kill shape by midmorning. After that we are pretty screwed…expect bumpy/swampy shape until late afternoon…then we can just expect bumpy shape.

Here are the tides for Monday.

03:29AM 0.7’ Low
09:33AM 5.7’ High
04:04PM 0.3’ Low
10:00PM 4.8’ High

I am going to watch Dexter dismember some bad people…maybe that will make me feel better about the surf.

Friday, September 26, 2008

Waves for the Weekend - Tide Swamp, Fog, and Surf

Saturday and Sunday will have enough swell to be surf days...but the combo of tides, fog, and winds will work hard to hamper our enjoyment.

We will have a couple of SSW-SW swells overlapping this weekend that mix with a bit of background NW windswell and a touch of longer-period (10-12 second) NW swell.

Average S-facing spots, mostly through North LA and a few of the other spots that are sort of on the bubble, will be in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets.

Standout S-SW facing breaks through Orange County and San Diego will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger head high sets at the top spots.

The lame fog will continue at least through Saturday morning (but probably early Sunday as well)...so look for hard to see and lightly textured conditions through the dawn patrols. The fog is forecast to burn off in the afternoons but onshore winds out of the NW at about 12-14 knots slip into its place and helps to slop things up.

Tides will continue to be an issue, particularly through the mornings...we see a 5'+ high tide peak both Saturday and Sunday around 8:45-9:00am both days. This higher tide is going to make the wave heights seem a lot smaller, and shape will suck for many spots, but the swell is out there so we just need to cross our fingers that the tide will drop, the fog lifts, and the winds stay down long enough for conditions to pull themselves together.

If you have to get out and surf early I would try and pick spots that have a little shelter from the foggy onshore texture (spots with high cliffs or a pier/jetty/kelp...something to knock down the light breeze)...you are also going to want to try and hit up a break that can handle the high tide.

Here are the tides


02:35AM -0.1' Low
08:43AM 5.3' High
02:48PM 0.8' Low
08:40PM 5.5' High


03:03AM 0.2' Low
09:08AM 5.5' High
03:26PM 0.5' Low
09:20PM 5.2' High

The Cosmic Creek contest is down at Salt Creek in Orange County this weekend...so if you weren't planning on watching a contest then you might want to avoid the spot. They are going to be surfing on both Saturday and Sunday so expect limited access to the surf there. If the fog burns off...the contest is sort of cool...you have to ride 70's shapes, which makes for some interesting heats. They always have some sort of other nonsense going on down at the beach so if you got time to kill it might be worth walking down and checking it out.

Have a great weekend...hope you guys can dial in a few waves between all the funk!

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Surf on Friday – New SSW swell filling in

Friday will be a surf day…but it will have its issues.

Tide swamp, building onshore winds, and sort of walled up shape at the beach breaks…you know…the usual problems you have on SSW swells.

Our new SSW-SW (185-205) was just starting to fill in on Thursday…and it will continue to fill in more on Friday, eventually peaking on Saturday. We are also going to see a bit of WNW energy trying to leak around the corner…but most of it is pretty NW and above the 300-degree shadow. Hopefully (and I am not real optimistic) we will have enough background WNW-NW energy from the mix of medium-period and windswell that it will break up the SSW’er.

Check out the Dana Point buoy this afternoon. (I made sure to put my professional opinion of new swell on the image…man I should make art for a living).

On Friday we can expect the average spots to see surf in the waist-chest high+ range with some shoulder high sets.
Standout spots in Orange County and North San Diego will have more consistent surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets slipping through at the top breaks.

Winds look decent in the morning. Mostly light and variable with some light texture here and there. Onshore breezes pick up around 10-14 knots out of the W. Here is a shot of the winds about 7-8am tomorrow.

I would expect sort of a slow start in the morning…the tide is going to peak with a 5’+ high around 8-9am and that is going to burger out a lot of spots. You might be able to get a few fun waves before the high tide peaks but you are going to be rolling the dice if head to a spot that “has” to have a low tide. I am expecting the points and reefs to have the best shape on Friday…the better sandbars that can handle a little higher tide might be a good fallback but I would still watch out for wally shape. I don’t think it will be worth burning a lot of gas...so try and stick with your local S swell spots. (and if you live in Santa Barbara do some sort of magic wave dance to see if you can get some of the NW swell to sneak around the corner. Yeah good luck with that.)

Here are the tides for Friday.

02:02AM -0.3’ Low
08:17AM 4.9’ High
02:06PM 1.2’ Low
07:57PM 5.7’ High

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Thursday's Surf - Coming up a touch

Thursday looks like it will try and be a surf day...but I am not totally sold that it will be able to pull it off.

We are going to see a bit more swell from both the Southern Hemi and a touch of WNW background energy but neither of them are looking very healthy...just better than they did on Wednesday.

Our SW'er (190-205) will be filling in as we move throughout the day...but these are just some lead elements of the bigger SSW swell that hits more Friday/Saturday. The WNW energy is mostly coming in from over the 300-degree cutoff so Point Conception and the Nearshore islands will shadow almost all of that energy.

The average S facing breaks and the average combo spots will be around waist-chest high on sets on Thursday. Top SW facing breaks, mostly South Orange County and North San Diego, will have some chest-shoulder high sets through the morning and then will get a bit consistent in the shoulder high+ range by the afternoon.

Winds are forecast to be on the light side through the morning but we are expecting another heavy fog bank holding over SoCal so we may have some light fog texture as that bank moves around and tries to burn off. Look for W winds around 10-15 knot range by the afternoon.

Like I said I am not totally sold on Thursday being a decent surf day...since we will have more size and a bit more consistency I think it will be more fun than Wednesday...but that really isn't saying that much. I would still plan on using your smaller wave gear for most spots...but maybe move up to your fishier shapes if you are going to be surfing some of the more exposed areas.

Oh here is probably one of the most confusing forecast models you can look at...but it is showing that new SSW swell arriving later this week. (I am not sure who at CDIP made the call to turn the SoCal map on its side but I can tell they must get really lost a lot using roadmaps). Anyway if you can wrap your head around the image it is sort of cool to look at. You can find all the live data at this link...

CDIP Recent Observations

Here is the image...

Tides for Thursday

01:26AM -0.3' Low
07:50AM 4.6' High
01:21PM 1.8' Low
07:09PM 5.7' High

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Waves on Wednesday - Getting better...slowly.

Wednesday will be a little more surfable but still not great overall. We will have a touch more swell coming in from everywhere (SPAC, NPAC, and the local waters) but it doesn't amount to a ton of size. Tides will still be an issue but they are starting to shift around that we will see some better tidal windows.

A shot from the CDIP model from this afternoon...it will look sort of like this with just a touch more size.

Most of our surf will be off a mix of S-SW swells that have been limping out of the South Pacific and mixing with a bit of local WNW windswell.

Average S facing breaks will be in the knee high range with some waist high sets. Standout S-SW facing areas, mostly in Southern OC and Northern San Diego, will have more consistent waist high waves with some rare chest high sets.

Winds are looking light through the morning keeping us in clean conditions through midmorning. Onshore flow moves in through midmorning and eventually tops out near 10-14 knots this afternoon.

Personally I don't think that Wednesday will be very fun from a surfing perspective (but any day surfing is better than working or doing chores so it is all pretty relative). The swell will still be fairly small overall and the tides still a bit too high to set up much in the way of workable shape...it might be fun on your small wave gear, which means basically longboards for most people...(maybe a fishy shape for you tiny rubber guys).

A camera check is still a pretty good idea in the AM...just so you don't drive down and find that your spot is a lake thanks to the high morning tide.

Tides for Wednesday

12:41AM -0.2' Low
07:22AM 4.2' High
12:27PM 2.4' Low
06:13PM 5.5' High

Quick Heads Up - Some better waves coming

So I was looking at a few of the charts a little closer today and after getting some better data over the last couple of days I think that we could have a fun run of waves coming through in a few days.

It isn't really going to be big enough to get super fired up about but it will be better than the dribble that we have powered through over the last several days.

This is the storm that I was looking at in particular...it pushed through our swell window fairly fast so it didn't throw up any "hey look at this" sort of flags, but after seeing some altimeter and wave-model data it looks like it kicked out a playful size shoulder-head high swell for the standout spots in SoCal.

Check out these QUIKscat readings

Like I said nothing really that exciting but better than we currently have.

I am looking for some of the smaller lead elements of this S-SW swell (185-205) to start pushing in on the Friday (9/26) with the peak of the swell arriving on Saturday and Sunday (9/27-9/28).

Sizewise look for surf in the waist-shoulder high range at the average S facing breaks. Standout spots in Orange County and San Diego will be more in the chest-shoulder high+ range with some inconsistent head high sets as the swell peaks.

Winds and tides look decent for the weekend...and we may even see enough background WNW energy and local windswell to help break up the Southern Hemi at the more open combo breaks.

All-in-all we could have a few surfable mornings on tap as we head into the end of the week and the weekend. Make sure to check the blog for more details as we get closer to the end of the week.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Tuesday's Surf - picking up a touch but fighting the tide

Tuesday will be another rideable day but again I wouldn't venture to call it an actual surf day. There will be a touch more swell, cleaner conditions, but the tide continues to shaft us through most of the day.

We are going to see another small pulse of SSW energy arrive and overlap with our current SSW'er and mix with the background WNW windswell.

The average spots will continue to run in boggy knee-waist high waves. Standout SSW-SW facing surf breaks, mostly through Orange County and San Diego will be in the waist-chest high range on the sets.

Winds are looking much better tomorrow...mostly light/variable for the whole region with just a couple of small pockets of light-onshore texture here and there. Afternoon winds pick up out of the W around 10-12 knots.

Overall I wish we had more swell with the higher tides that hold throughout the day (crap even the low tide is a 3') but we don't so I should quit whining. The combo of small sizes and swampy tide is going to give plenty of spots some lovely mushy shorebreak shape. If you have to surf plan on hitting a spot that can handle a bit more water. I might hunt around for some mini-waves in the morning (just because I want to ride my new board)...but I am not going to be very motivated about it.

hmmm a little swampy

Tides for Tuesday

06:52AM 3.7' High
11:13AM 3.0' Low
05:03PM 5.3' High

John Severson @ The Surf Gallery

Hey gang...my friend Will is putting on another art show at The Surf Gallery down in Laguna Beach. It is a John Severson show...with what sounds like a lot of cool orginal stuff.

Anyway there is going to be live music...(and sometimes Will throws in beer/wine too...hmmm beer.)

Here are the details.

What: JOHN SEVERSON show at The Surf Gallery! John will make a live appearance at The Surf Gallery in Laguna Beach for his newest exhibition of paintings, prints and new line of Fender guitars!

When: Saturday, September 27, 2008 > 6-10 p.m.

Where: The Surf Gallery
911 S. Coast Hwy. Laguna Beach, CA 92651

Notes: Stop by to check out John's latest work. Original drawings start at @ $225 & watercolors start at $575 framed. Two signed guitars will be given away!


Sunday, September 21, 2008

Monday’s Surf – Smaller and with more eddy

Monday will be surfable but not what I would call a surf day. Our swell will be fading, looks like there will be some eddy winds in the morning and to top it off the tides sort of honk us up a bit as well.

The small pulse of SSW swell that came in over the weekend and tried to help prop up wave heights will be on its way out…leaving us with mostly leftover SSW energy and small WNW windswell. Here is a shot of the CDIP model…not very exciting.

On average most breaks will hold around knee to waist high…and will stay soft on the higher tides.

The standout combo breaks, mostly the beach breaks with a really good sandbar and some exposure to the mix of swells, will be in the waist-chest high range on the better sets…but mostly they will hang in the same sort of knee-waist high range.

Winds also look a little funky…forecasts are showing the eddy spin up tomorrow, which will be better for water temps but not for super clean morning conditions for some areas. This is a shot from the NRL COAMPS model…check out the swirly winds…that is the eddy forecasted to center around Catalina Island.

Right now the South Bay, N. LA, and Southern Ventura look like conditions will be ok…a touch warbly but cleaner than other areas. OC and SD will have the light onshore S-SW winds. W winds around 10-12 knots build in for all areas in the afternoon.

I don’t think there is really going to be a best bet tomorrow…if you find waves close to home get on them…they probably won’t last long as the tides swing and the winds increase. Personally I am going to take the morning on the slow side…maybe check the cameras and see if I can find something that makes me want to drive down and look at it in person…I am not holding my breath though.

Tides on Monday

06:11AM 3.4' High
09:01AM 3.3' Low
03:32PM 5.2' High
11:45PM 0.1' Low

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Waves for the weekend - a little breezy at times

It looks surfable this weekend but there may be a few issues with the wind particularly on Saturday.

Swellwise for both days we are going to see a mix of SSW swells (185-205), increasing local windswell, and some background WNW energy.

Most spots will hold around waist high with the mix of SSW swell and windswell. The average S facing breaks will be in the waist-chest high with some occasional shoulder high sets.

Standout S facing breaks of Orange County and San Diego will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with inconsistent head high sets. Spots that can combo up on both the SSW'er and the windswell will be a lot more consistent than spots that are working just off the southern hemi swell.

Unfortunately winds will be a little funky, especially on Saturday. It looks like the NW flow that picked up to pretty brisk speeds on Friday will continue to hold overnight into Saturday morning. It should lighten up some but not enough to get the morning sickness off the more exposed beaches.

So for Saturday look for onshore bump out of the W-WSW around 3-5-knots...not enough to blow it out...but expect some slop. Check out the NRL COAMPS forecast...you can see the lighter winds near the coast are just hiding the stronger breeze off the coast.

Things look cleaner on Sunday...the winds back off a bit more Saturday night and maybe open up a better pocket of light winds through the morning. Compare Sunday's COAMPS to Saturday's...lots more of the light blue near the coast which is a good thing.

Like I said...I do think it will be surfable over the weekend...it won't be great but if you have something (like a jetty, pier, kelp, ect) to knock down a little of the wind you can probably find a couple of shwackable sections on the lower tides. I would probably try and surf on Sunday if you only get one shot to surf this weekend...but even then I would probably get a surf camera check in the morning before burning a lot of gas getting to the beach.

Tides for the weekend

01:41AM 3.2' High
05:58AM 2.4' Low
12:41PM 5.6' High
08:49PM 0.5' Low

04:06AM 3.0' High
06:42AM 2.9' Low
01:54PM 5.3' High
10:26PM 0.4' Low

Have a good one!

P.S. Hope any of you watching the Oakley Newport Pro webcast got a good laugh at me up in the announcers booth with Dave Stanfield.

Quick morning surf report for North OC – A bit funky out there

I just took a quick tour of the North Orange County beach breaks and things a looking a bit funky. Sort of like chicken that has been in the fridge just a bit too long…suspect, if you know what I mean.

There is plenty of size…lots of chest-head high waves…even some overhead sets at the good sandbars. Shape though is pretty walled. There are a few dumpy closeouts if you like pulling into barrels and getting blown up…but don’t expect to make many of them. I watched the Edison High School surf class getting mental on a few of the bigger thumper sets…a lot of those kids charge even when it is breaking in about a foot of water…must be nice to weight 85lbs and be made out of rubber.

Winds are light but there is some bump to it, so I don’t think the winds ever really laid down last night (at least not until right before dawn). Onshore breeze is already picking up and it should just continue to get stronger and come more onshore throughout the day.

All in all if you are planning on surfing in this area I wouldn’t expect a ton from it. Look for a lot of lined up sets, and some occasional makeable sections. Lots of side current and rips. The building tide and increasing winds aren’t going to help much either.

Friday's Surf - SSW swell continues

Friday is looking like a surf day...but if you want clean conditions you had better try and surf during the first few hours of daylight.

Our SSW swell (185-205) will slowly start to fade on Friday but it will continue to send in enough decent surf that we should have plenty of fun at the exposed breaks. The local WNW windswell will continue slip through in the background but won't do a ton to break up the SSW'er

Sizewise the average spots, breaks that have some exposure to the SSW swell and some of the local windswell, will hold around waist-chest high with some inconsistent shoulder high sets showing on the lower tides.

Standout SSW facing breaks, mostly Orange County and North San Diego (with a few spots in North LA), will see chest-shoulder high surf on the average sets and a few head high faces on the less consistent bigger sets.

Winds look mostly clean in the morning but there will be some onshore texture building in from Santa Barbara down through North OC...not enough to blow it out but enough to put some texture on it. SD areas may see a bit of eddy texture. Again most beaches will have winds below 10-knots but a few of the more exposed areas won't be totally clean. Afternoon Winds build in out of the W around 10-15 knots.

Here is a shot of what the winds are supposed to look like tomorrow at 8AM…looks a little breezy as you move into North OC and regions further north.

I am still thinking that the points and reefs are going to be the best call on Friday. The beach breaks are still pretty lined up, particularly as the tide fills in...(the SSW swell isn't dropping enough on Friday to get us past the usual wally shape of a dominant S-swell.) That being said, the points/reefs are probably going to get a little crowded since it is the end of the week...so a good beach break sandbar, especially if it is near a pier or jetty, will be a halfway decent fallback if you aren't sold on battling it out with the crowd.

With the wind and the semi-wally conditions I think this is sort of a borderline swell to spend a lot of time hunting around for waves...personally I am going to try and stay local and see if I can find some fun ones close to home.

Tides for Friday

12:18AM 3.7' High
05:27AM 1.9' Low
11:51AM 5.8' High
07:22PM 0.4' Low

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Surf for Thursday - Fun SSW swell

Thursday will be a surf day...we have a new SSW swell peaking so a lot of the summer spots will continue to see playful surf while the standouts see some halfway decent size.

Like I said the new SSW'er (185-200) will peak on Thursday...it is coming in from a decent angle, and we have a bit 'o windswell to cross it up, which is nice. Most S-facing spots, (the average breaks in OC, SD, and the top spots in N. LA), will be around waist-shoulder high on sets with maybe a rare bigger wave coming through.

Standout S facing spots, particularly those in OC and North San Diego, will have shoulder-head high sets, with an occasional overhead wave sneaking through.

Winds will be ok...just a touch of texture in the morning and then building W winds around the usual 10-12+15 knots by the afternoon.

I actually got a chance to surf a bit this afternoon and the new swell was starting to fill in...the beach break that I was at was a little walled and I expect that to continue tomorrow as well. There were a few little corners but it was mostly fast, semi-walled lefts. With that being the case I think that the points and reefs are going to be the best call tomorrow since they will have longer more makeable sections. Beach breaks will be an ok fall-back if they have a decent sandbar and can handle the higher tides that push through around midday.

Thursday's Tides

04:59AM 1.4’ Low
11:11AM 5.9’ High
06:16PM 0.3’ Low

Oh and here are the stats for my new board…I was so tired I forgot to post them with the picture last night.

Length - 6’6” Width - 20.5” Thickness - 2.75”

Check out Tim’s other shapes when you get a chance (if you order one tell him you saw it on the blog!)


Tuesday, September 16, 2008

My new board - just arrived from another dimension

My new board - just arrived from another dimension

It has 4 fins and it looks like it will go really fast.

It was nice to have Tim Stamps shape it out of some sort of weird space crystal.

Anyway it is late…and the newborn sleep depravation (and playing with photoshop) is starting to make me see weird things.

I will have the real details on my new gear tomorrow as long as it doesn't blast me into space or something

Surf on Wednesday – F_@k wallstreet I am going surfing

Wednesday is looking like another surf day…we will have a little more swell and I think that the exposed combo beach breaks should be pretty through the morning.

We are going to have a mix of SSW swells on Wednesday…one fading and a new more southerly one filling in…both of which will be mixing with some increasing NW windswell.

Average spots with S exposure will be in the waist-chest high range…with a few shoulder high sets sneaking through on the lower tides.

The top spots, meaning the well exposed S-facing breaks…mostly in OC and SD, will be chest-shoulder high on most of the waves. The bigger sets should be topping out around head high or so.

Winds are expected to be light in the morning…mostly light and variable but we may see some S-SW texture for the SD and OC areas (sort of depends on how much the eddy sets up tonight). Afternoon winds pick up out of the W around 10-15 knots.

I think with the windswell helping to combo up the SSW swell that the beach breaks will be a decent call tomorrow morning, particularly if the winds stay light. The points and reefs will still be fun as well but they may not connect as far as they would on a pure S-SW swell. Midmorning will probably be the most fun…but you are going to want to get on it before the 5.8’ high tide swamps things out around 10:45am.

Here are the tides for Wednesday

04:32AM 1.0' Low
10:37AM 5.8' High
05:22PM 0.3' Low
11:20PM 4.3' High

Monday, September 15, 2008

Tuesday's Surf - a little more swell

Tuesday will be a surf day...nothing exciting sizewise but it will be rideable particularly during the lower tides.

We will have a mix of fading SSW swell from the weekend, a new (but small) pulse of SW energy (195-205), and some local NW windswell.

Most spots will continue to hold around waist high, with the average S-facing breaks hitting chest high+ on inconsistent sets.
Standout S-facing breaks, particularly the good SW facing surf spots in South Orange County and North San Diego, will have waist-shoulder high surf with an inconsistent bigger set sneaking through at times. The bigger waves will be pretty sparse in the morning...but consistency should improve by the afternoon as the new swell fills in more.

Winds should be decent in the morning...mostly light and variable early on...then onshore out of the WNW around 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

Overall I expect Tuesday to be on the slow side...there will be surf...but the wait between waves and the higher tides will keep it sort of fair, rather than fun. I think the small wave gear will probably be the best call, that way you can make the most of the in-betweener sets, and not just sit around shooting the shitola. I would probably try and get on it early before the higher tide shuts it down...plan on surfing around the higher tides if you can.

Here are the tides for Tuesday.

04:05AM 0.5' Low
10:08AM 5.6' High
04:35PM 0.4' Low
10:32PM 4.8' High

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Monday’s Surf – looking a little sketchy (sort of like those calls in the Chargers game).

I am going to say at this point…Monday is not looking like much of a surf day. There may be a few pockets of surfiness but overall it isn’t going to be very appealing.

We are going to have a steady but sort of slow SSW pulse (190-205) and some increasing local NW windswell. If there was a bit more SW swell we might actually pull off a decent combo swell but I don’t think that small 3-4 second period NW will be able to carve much out of the SSW swell.

Sizewise look for a slowdown at most spots. Average breaks will hold around the waist-chest high range. The better SW facing breaks of Orange County and North San Diego will see surf in the chest high range with some less consistent shoulder high sets sneaking through.

Winds are going to be a bit of a pain in the ass…I was just out walking around outside and using my keen meteorological senses I noticed that the winds were still blowing onshore…(never a good sign once the sun has set)…so I went back and looked at the charts and it doesn’t look like the winds are going to really calm down even in the morning. Oh it will be surfable but expect some onshore bump for most areas. Santa Barbara and LA will have predominantly W-NW flow around 10 knots while the areas further south see a more westerly-SW’lery texture in the morning.

Look for increasing NW winds around 15 knots on tap for all areas by the afternoon.

I think it is going to be one of those compromise mornings, where you give up size to surf a more protected spot…or get a little more consistency out of one break and give up shape. Needless to say I wouldn’t spend a lot of time hunting around. Just find a fun section that you can live with close to home and go to work (metaphorically speaking I would never actually condone going to work when you can surf).

Friday, September 12, 2008

Waves for the Weekend – You guessed it…more SSW swell

Looks like both Saturday and Sunday will be surf days this weekend.

We are going to have a mix of fading SSW energy that peaked earlier in the week and a new SSW’er (190-205) that will move in as the first swell drops off.

There isn’t going to be a huge change in the surf size…just a bit more consistency and a few bigger sets mixing in as the second swell peaks. Expect a slightly slow start early Saturday as the first part of the swell arrives…but then things pick up more Saturday evening and into Sunday.

Look for the average surf spots (those with a little bit of S-SW exposure) to see surf in the chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder-shoulder high+ sets.

Standout surf breaks, mostly through Orange County and the summer spots in San Diego, will have consistent shoulder-head high sets with some head high+ waves mixing in as the swell peaks.

Winds are still going to be a little funky but we should have surfable conditions through the morning on both days. Expect onshore breezes to increase (probably the usual Westerly 10-15 knots) through the afternoons.

Here is a quick shot of the CDIP model…(I’ll give you a hint…don’t surf Santa Barbara if you are looking for bigger waves this weekend. It is just a feeling that I have).

I think that the points and reefs will continue to have the best shape over the next couple of days…there still isn’t really enough windswell (or WNW energy) to break up the more dominant SSW swell. The sandbars could still be fun but expect some close-out shape on the bigger sets.

I would probably consider this a sort of borderline swell to drive around on…there will be size but the spots that have the best shape will likely be crowded…and piling on won’t really make it any more fun. Personally I am going to hunt around the local beach breaks and hope that there is enough sand piled up somewhere to set up a makeable section.

Have a good one!

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Surf on Friday - A little smaller but still fun

Friday will be surf day...there will be a little less energy than the past few days but there will still be some playful waves.

Our SSW swell mix that peaked midweek will continue to slowly back down while local WNW windswell comes up a notch.

Average spots, with some exposure to the SSW swell, will be in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets. Expect a few longer waits between the bigger waves.

Standout S-SW facing surf spots, again mostly through Orange County and parts of San Diego, will have surf consistently in the chest-shoulder high range with a few inconsistent head high sets at the top breaks.

Winds are expected to be light again in the morning but with a few pockets of onshore texture at the more exposed beaches. W winds around 10-14 knots move in as the overcast burns off through the afternoon.

I think the beach breaks will be more of an option on Friday as the SSW'er backs off a bit more and we see a little more WNW energy to cross it up. The best surf will still be at the points/reefs but those top sandbars will look a bit better than they did through the middle of the week. Unfortunately with the swell backing off it means that the tide is going to be a bit more critical...you are going to want to try and get to the beach really early to beat the morning 4' high tide or you will have to stick to the spots that like a bit more water. It probably won't be worth driving around to hunt for surf either...try and find some fun ones close to home if you can.

Here are the Tides for Friday

2:26AM LDT 0.0' Low
8:41AM LDT 4.3' High
2:05PM LDT 1.9' Low
7:57PM LDT 5.6' High

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Surf on Thursday - Now with a more coherent forecast!

Thursday will be yet another surf day.

The lovely run of SSW swell will continue on Thursday but it will start to slowly lose a little steam...there will be still plenty of waves at the exposed breaks but the bigger sets will lose a little of the oomph.

Look for the average S facing spots throughout SoCal to have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head high sets.

The standout S-facing surf breaks, mostly through Orange County and Northern San Diego, will have surf in the shoulder-head high range with some overhead sets pushing through. (this is starting to sound like a broken record...a glorious broken record).

Winds look pretty darn good for Thursday...look for light to calm winds through the morning and just W winds around 10-12 knots on tap through the afternoon. Areas with some protection from the afternoon breeze (spots with kelp, high cliffs, or some sort of wind break) may even see a bit of a clean-up late in the day...so there may be some hope for the after-work surf crowd.

The points and reefs are going to be the best call again on Thursday...they are going to be the best at cranking out some long surfable sections. The exposed beach breaks are just too walled with too much current to be much fun. If you have to surf a beach break then try and hit up a spot with a stellar sandbar...preferably with something like a jetty or a pier to help break up the swell. There should be enough swell that the tide won't be that much of a factor but try and pick spots that will work the morning high-tide rather than against it.

The tides for Thursday

2:00AM 0.2 Low
8:25AM 4.0 High
1:32PM 2.3 Low
7:21PM 5.4 High

Another Tropical Update (outside of our area) - Texas is about to get bent by Hurricane Ike

Again I have been sort of straying outside of the SoCal focus of my blog...but when you see something like this as a forecaster it is difficult not to pay attention to it.

If you have been watching the news or listening to the national weather you know that Hurricane Ike has been careening around the Caribbean like some sort of drunken sailor causing all sort of havoc.

Well he has finally cleared Cuba and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Now that Ike is back over water (and the nice warm/wet air-mass that sits over the Gulf) he is starting to intensify again and is forecast to cap out with wind speeds gusting near 135-knots (holy crap!).

Right now his current forecast track has him basically cornholing Southern Texas somewhere between Galveston and Corpus Christi late this week...likely later on Friday. (Though with New Orleans' luck he will probably recurve at the last minute and mow down Louisiana instead).

Ike is a pretty solid storm both in diameter and intensity. NHC is calling for the 50-knot wind radius in both the NE-NW quadrants to extend out to about 120-150 miles from the core (which with his current movement track is sometime referred to as the "death-zone")

Check out the current NRL Storm Track

And here is a visible-satellite shot

Surfwise Ike is moving slow enough that he will be kicking out swell all over the Gulf of Mexico from Texas all the way back through the Panhandle/West Coast of Florida.

Naturally the biggest swell will be directly along the storm path so Southern Texas will see some very large surf...there may even be a small window of surfable conditions to go along with the first part of the new swell. I am expecting new swell to arrive late tonight and to continue to build through Thursday (and really continue to build until the storm makes landfall).

If it is going to be surfable Thursday will be the day, but please listen to the local authorities and if they say to evacuate the get the hell out of the way of the storm.

Here is a great look at the significant wave heights moving into the area...this is a great local swell model that Mark Sponsler over at Stormsurf.com has on his site.

Waves hitting Texas

If any of you Texas surfers get a chance to surf some of Ike's swell send over some pictures!

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Surfer Poll + 5 Crown&7-up's = no forecast

Sorry guys...I went to surfer poll tonight and didn't get a chance to update the forecast...so this is going out pretty darn late.

Looks like the SSW swell (190-205) will continue to peak tomorrow morning so the S facing spots will continue to see a decent amount of swell. I would try and get on it early again. The average spots will continue to run in the chest-shoulder high+ range while the standouts see head high and overhead sets.

The best spots will continue to be the points and reefs...with the really good sandbars (with something like a pier or jetty) a decent fall-back spot.

Winds will be similar to Tuesday...so look for some slight eddy texture to the more exposed breaks but mostly clean conditions in the morning. W winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.

Here is the CDIP model for the evening...it is showing the areas you want to hit.

I am tired...the whisky was a little too much for a Tuesday night (who has a party on a Tuesday anyway? and why was I invited of all things?). I might be surfing my pillow tomorrow morning but if you had a healthier night than I did you should try and pick off a few in the AM.

Oh and here are the tides...by request...for Wednesday.

1:32AM 0.41 feet Low Tide
8:21AM 3.89 feet High Tide
12:56PM 2.78 feet Low Tide
6:50PM 5.18 feet High Tide

(Maybe I will get a nifty graph in the future.)

Time for sleepy.

Monday, September 8, 2008

Tuesday’s Surf – Turning up the volume a notch

Tuesday will be a surf day.

There will be more SSW swell (190-205) mixing in with our slowly fading SW swell (210-220) and a touch of the nearly ever-present but not particularly good for much local windswell. (well I take it back…right now there is just enough windswell to help peak up the SW’ers which doesn’t make it totally useless). Check out the latest CDIP model…

Average exposed spots that can pick up some of the S-SW swell mix will be holding around chest-shoulder high. Standout S facing surf breaks, mostly through South Orange and North San Diego, will have surf in the shoulder-head high range with inconsistent overhead sets.

Winds will be fairly similar to the last couple of days. Mostly light and variable with some slight onshore texture showing at the more exposed breaks through the early morning. Onshore texture will pick up by mid-morning and we can expect onshore W winds around 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

Size- and Shape-wise those South OC and North SD points and reefs are going to be the best call. They are more exposed to the swell mix, they have the sea-floor set up to hold together a longer wave (with less closeouts), and they will actually start getting a bit more consistent as the new SSW swell fills in. Too bad the contest is shutting down access to Lowers but the other breaks around the region should be fun as well. I think this swell mix will be worth driving around a bit…not a ton…but enough to find a something a little more fun.

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Monday’s Surf – SW swell fun with a slight chance of homicide

Ok this is going to be a short post since my wife said she would stab me if I spent a single minute more on the computer tonight. (See what sort of risks I take for you guys). Plus I have to watch that show about the human Tetris thingee on fox tonight.

Anyway getting down to the brass tacks…Monday will be a surf day.

The new SW swell started filling in on Sunday and will peak into Monday as it mixes with some leftover S energy and some local windswell. Most exposed breaks will continue to hold around waist-shoulder high on sets while the standout breaks, mostly down in South OC and through most of North San Diego, will have some shoulder-head high sets…maybe even a few plus sized waves on the better tides. I still think there will be some consistency issues at times but the new size should make up for the gaps between the bigger waves.

Winds will be light again in the morning, with a slight bit of onshore texture at the really open beaches. All spots see onshore W winds around 10-12 knots by the afternoon.

Best spots will be the points/reefs that are exposed to the swell…breaks in North LA should be ok…but the points/reefs of SD/OC will be the best. Beach breaks will be ok…but a little walled and will probably have some current. Try and surf early to beat the wind.

OK got to go…I can hear her sharpening up the knife in the kitchen…

Tropical Update: TS Lowell – A sketchy lad

So I saw this TS Lowell tropical system form up Saturday night but held off until tonight to post anything on it, mostly because I didn’t like how the adverse upper level winds suddenly went “magical” and allowed the storm to develop. That is a hell of a lot of energy to reroute/disperse in such a short time. Turns out it was a pretty good call to hold back a bit.

During the first model run it looked like we might be “full systems go” for some tropical swell later this week…but watch what happened.

Forecast Saturday night.

Then Sunday morning

And Finally Sunday evening

As you can see it doesn’t paint a lovely picture…here is the kicker...even though the storm center skirts over the shadow it doesn’t bring a lot of energy with it.

I would still look for a slight increase in tropical SE swell (mostly short-period…almost like SE’erly windswell) by Tuesday evening and then holding into Wednesday before fading out later in the week. Likely this will get lost in the more dominant SSW swell…but we can always cross out fingers and hope that TS Lowell pulls his head out.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Waves for the weekend - try and surf early

It will be a surf weekend...not super great overall but with enough energy to keep us in the water.

About the only thing that sort of sucks is the wind...looks like it will get pretty breezy by midmorning and then stay steady through the afternoon/evening. Like the title of the post says...try and get on it early to beat the bump.

Surfwise we are going to see a mix of fading S swell and local windswell on Saturday. Most S facing spots will hold around chest high with some random shoulder high sets. Standout S facing breaks and good combo spots in the OC and North San Diego will have some head high-head high+ sets coming through on the better tides.

Sunday we will have the fading S swell and local windswell still in the water but we will also have a new SW swell (210-220) that will move in and start peaking by the afternoon. This one is a bit shadowed, both by the SPAC islands and the big lumps of dirt we call the Nearshore Islands, so don't expect a ton out of it. Wave heights will remain nominally the same...lots of chest-shoulder high+ stuff for the average spots and some head high waves at the standouts. The top breaks in South OC and North SD counties will see shoulder-head high+ surf with a few inconsistent bigger sets mixing in. Remember that the contest will be down at Lowers this weekend...which is sort of a bummer...I hate to see a good spot taken out of the surf equation when we haven't had quality surf for a while.

Like I mentioned before winds are going to be a little problematic...it looks clean early, with just some light texture...but the winds pick up around 8-9am and don't look back...they will eventually top out with 15-knot white cap junk by the afternoon.

Shape at the beach breaks will also be a bit suspect...the S swell will be pretty lined up at most of the more open beaches. Hopefully the crappy afternoon winds can kick up enough local windswell to fold in a few peaks at the ol' beach breaks.

Have a great weekend...check back I will probably post some sort of random nonsense about the East Coast being completely destroyed by hurricanes or something.

(Man I need a beer...)

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Friday's Surf - Will work for combo swell...surfing closeouts sucks

Friday will be another surf day...still a little wally at the beach breaks but fun at the points and reefs (if you can wade through the crowds).

We will have a mix of slowly fading S swell (170-180) and increasing local NW windswell. Most spots with S exposure will continue to have chest high+ surf. Standout S facing breaks in Orange County and North San Diego will have sets in the shoulder-head high range. The bigger ones may be a bit less consistent as the swell fades but there should still be some fun ones on the lower tides.

Winds may be a little funky (like we saw on Thursday)...it looks like we will see light W winds around 2-4 knots coming onshore through the morning...basically stretching from Santa Barbara through North Orange County. San Diego will be cleaner but may still have a little bit of light SW-W texture as well. All spots will have W winds around 10-12 knots by the afternoon.

Check out the latest NOAA graphical forecast for tomorrow morning...looks like a lot of "crappy pink" from OC northward. Stupid wind.

I think tomorrow should still be OK despite the bump...particularly if your spot has a little protection...like say the inside sections of the good point breaks, high cliffs, piers, or jetties...basically something that can knock down a little of the breeze. Fortunately those are the same sort of spots (if they have south exposure) where you are going to find the best surf shape.

Beach breaks will be a bit walled again, along with some fun current, but we might start to see a few more creases in the S lines as the windswell comes up slightly.

For some reason I am not really fired up on this swell, I still don't think that it is worth driving very far to surf. Yeah a few spots have had some size but the breaks that can hold a decent wave have been pretty slammed. Maybe it is the just the "crazy-talk" of man with a newborn at home...but I would probably just try and stick it out with the local spots and make due with what I find rather than wasting much gas to sit in a crowd.

Fortunately there are some more waves on tap next week...check out this lovely post on all of the renewed activity in the South Pacific.

Swell Alert - The South Pacific is coming back online

Swell Alert - The South Pacific is coming back online

After what seemed like f-ing forever (but was in reality about 2-1/2 weeks) the South Pacific finally started getting its shit back together.

This S swell we have had over the last couple of days was the first real pulse of energy that we had seen in a while. Fortunately it is not a one-hit-wonder...in fact it eroded the blocking high-pressure that had been kicking our swell-window "right in the junk" and helped open up a gap, which allowed a couple of following storms to set up some decent fetch for SoCal, Baja, Mainland Mexico and Central America.

These storms were positioned a bit more on the SW side of the swell window, which means that the swell they kicked out will arrive in SoCal about the same time they hit Mex and Central America. I will get into the surf details in a bit...

OK there are actually 2 swells currently heading our way with a 3rd potentially brewing out the back. (I am not holding my breath on that one though).

Swell #1

The first swell arriving in this new batch will be a SW'er (210-220)...it has some decent energy but there are a couple of things I don't like about it for SoCal. First off is the swell angle...it has a lot of west in it, which means it had to pass through the SPAC island shadow and probably had a lot of the consistency chewed out of it. Secondly the more westerly angle also means that the Nearshore Islands (like the Channel Islands, Catalina, and San Clemente Island) will also get into the mix at shadowing this swell.

Check out the shadowing on the WavewatchIII swell-period model

That being said...it still has some OK energy making it through the gaps...I am expecting this swell to hit in SoCal late on the 6th...and then peak on Sunday/Monday (Sept 7-8th). Sizewise it looks good for chest-shoulder high surf for the average spots. Standout surf breaks, basically in San Diego and South Orange County, will have shoulder-head high+ sets. Unfortunately there is a surf contest at what would probably be the best spot for this swell. (you can probably figure it out).

Travel spots like Baja, Mainland Mex, and Central America, will be less shadowed and more consistent. Look for most of the "average spots" to be around shoulder-high to overhead on sizes while the deepwater breaks of Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America see sets going a few feet overhead and even a little bigger at times.

Swell #2

The second swell is a little more of a SSW’er (190-205) and it was both a little more intense and it made it a touch closer to our region than the first storm. With the better direction, less shadowing, and more intensity I think this will end up being the better of the swells. Here check out the Quikscat from this storm…

This one will arrive on Sept 9th late in the evening and then peak the 10-11th before slowly fading out. I am expecting surf at the S facing spots to be in the shoulder-head high range while the standout breaks, mostly in Orange County and San Diego, see sets going a couple of feet overhead as the swell peaks.

The travel spots will also see decent size ff this swell…it will actually arrive a bit earlier for most of those areas, filling in on the 8-9th for most of Central America/Mainland Mexico, and more of the 9-10th for Southern Baja. Sizewise those areas can expect surf running shoulder-overhead at the better breaks while the top spots go a several feet overhead…probably 8’+ faces (and sometimes bigger) at the standout deepwater breaks.

So all in all it should be a decent run of swells…I wish it could be a little better aimed for SoCal (or at least that we could get a combo swell to help cross it up) but it is better than the flat spell we just waded through.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Thursday's Surf - Even more S swell!

The S swell was showing pretty well on Wednesday...but, like I thought, it wasn't that great at the beach breaks...the points and reefs were definitely the call if you didn't mind battling it out with 200 of your closest friends.

Check out the scene at Malibu today...(I screen grabbed this about 4pm).

"got next!"

Anyway Thursday will be a surf day too...

The S swell will continue to hold throughout the day and we may even see an increase of local windswell. I don't think the windswell is going to be able to break up the S swell but it may help a little bit at the better combo breaks.

Average spots will continue to see surf in the chest-shoulder high range with a few head high waves.

Standout S facing breaks, mostly through Orange County and Northern San Diego, will have shoulder-head high surf with a few overhead waves mixing in.

Winds will be ok…mostly light and variable in the morning with building W’erly flow through the afternoon, eventually topping out around 10-12 knots.

Points and Reefs will be the call again on Thursday…maybe a couple of the good sandbars (like the ones near piers and jetties) as well. The more open beach breaks will still have some shape issues…lots of walls and lots of current at times. I am not sure home much this swell is worth driving for anymore…most everyone is on it, which means that most of the good points and reefs will look a lot like that Malibu picture…you will have to weigh your need for quality surf vs. how aggravated a crowd can make you.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Waves for Wednesday – More S swell!

I like waves…even if they are a little closed out. Waves are definitely more fun than no-waves. Now that I got that off my chest…it looks like we are going to have some more waves tomorrow.

The new S swell started showing a bit on Tuesday…it even got an earlier start than I was anticipating. Check out the Dana Point buoy this afternoon.

yeah I have got issues

This new S swell will fill in more overnight and peak on Wednesday as it mixes with some minor NW windswell.

Most spots with some S exposure will be around chest-shoulder high…with a couple of sets sneaking through on the lower tides.

Standout breaks, mostly through Orange County and North San Diego, will have surf in the shoulder-head high range with overhead sets mixing in.

Shape is going to be a bit suspect…beach breaks are going to be pretty walled, and the will be some current to go with it…so if you are looking for “quality” waves you are going to have to stick with the reefs, points, and the really good sandbars. I wish there was a little more windswell to break it up…but we are going to have to make do with what we got.

Winds will be light through the morning with some areas of light-onshore texture. W-NW winds around the normal 10-12+ knots will be on tap for the afternoon.

Considering the wave-drought we had over the last couple of weeks I think this swell will be worth driving around a bit to find quality waves. Remember this isn’t a macker swell or anything so don’t get too crazy with your wave hunting. And also keep in mind that this is the first swell we have had in a while so a lot of people are going to be trying to get some as well. (at least school has started for a lot of people). Have a good one…drop me a line if you get a few fun ones tomorrow.

Tropical Update – TS Karina – straight out of nowhere

Things pull together pretty fast in the tropics…yesterday we had a patch of badly organized thunderstorms…then the upper level winds shifted and bam!...we have a new tropical storm.

Unfortunately TS Karina doesn’t look like much of a wave maker…she is in our swell window but she is small and her core winds are just barely reaching TS strength.

Forecasts are showing her dropping back to a depression by Wednesday evening.

From a surf standpoint I would expect a bit of short-period S swell for Baja Sur but any swell that can actually make it up to SoCal will likely be lost in the more dominant Southern Hemi energy.

It is worth keeping an eye on her though...with such a slow movement path, and a decent storm track, we may see her strengthen enough to generate some better surf. I am not holding my breath though.

Monday, September 1, 2008

Tuesday’s Surf – Thanks for the holiday now get back to work!

Tuesday is looking like a surf day…and there is going to be a little more swell filling in on the mix we already have showing.

We will mostly see a mix of the leftover S-SW mix, and local NW windswell that we have been slogging through for the last couple of weeks. The morning will start off particularly slow as those swells continue to limp in. A new S swell (175-190) begins filling in with some long-period forerunners around midday and we should start to see some new sets arriving around sundown.

For Tuesday mostly spots will continue to hold around waist-high+…with just a few inconsistent chest high waves mixing in. Standout S-SW facing breaks and the top combo spots will be more consistently in the chest-high+ range with some shoulder high sets at times.

The best breaks in Orange County and North San Diego may even have some head high waves hitting by sundown…conditions won’t be that good…but maybe, just maybe if we all wish really really hard we can see some sort of a clean up as the new swell starts filling in. (I am not going to hold my breath or anything).

I still think that your small wave boards, fishy shapes, eggs, longboards…are still going to be the most fun on Tuesday. You might be able to get away with a more “performance” board if you weigh like 90lbs or something.

Conditions look decent as well…mostly light and variable through the morning, with a couple of small pockets of onshore texture. W winds around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.

Really I am getting a little more fired up about the peak of the S swell that arrives on Wednesday and Thursday…sizewise it should top out around a consistent head high…maybe even a few head high+ waves at the best spots…bout time we had a swell with a little ass in it.

Hope you guys had a great weekend!

Monday Morning Surf Report - A few fun eddy textured ones

There are a few fun waves scattered around this morning. Nothing worth hacking your way through the crowds later today...but if you are close to a halfway decent break you might want to try and pick off a couple.

We still have the mind-numbing mix of small S-SW swell and local NW windswell showing this morning but both of them got a little boost of energy thanks to increasing local winds, and a small reinforcement from the Southern Hemisphere.

Most S-SW facing spots and the combo breaks are running around waist-chest high. A few of the Top combo spots in Southern Ventura, South Orange County, and San Diego are seeing some inconsistent shoulder high sets.

Shape is a little textured...there is some slight eddy S winds showing through Orange County and parts of LA...but areas with high cliffs or something to break up the light winds are still pretty glassy. Look for W winds around 10-12 knots by this afternoon.

Like I said it isn't really worth battling it out with the beach crowds today (and I have a feeling that blackball will be descending fairly early this morning)...but if you are desperate it might be worth checking the nearby spots.

Really I would be saving my “free-time” for later this week…the new S swell that hits (late Tuesday) but peaks Wednesday/Thursday should be pretty fun…and big enough to break us out of the groveling wave sizes. I just wish my new board was going to be ready!

Swell From Hurricane Gustav – Texas is Going off

I was checking the a few of the Texas surf cams to see if any swell got kicked out by Hurricane Gustav as it headed on its way to Louisiana.

It looks like some of the areas are getting some pretty good looking sets.

In particular look at this shot from South Padre Island. (I found it on http://www.spadre.com/surfcam.htm). It is going off on the outside…it is hard to tell how big it is but the winds are offshore and there are some definite corners lining up. The right looks particularly good.

Anyway it is better looking than anything in California this morning so I thought I would share.

Hey if there are any Texas surfers (or guys that have surfed South Padre before) out there, drop us a comment, let us know how big this. Those look like some pretty big oil rigs out there near the break.