Sunday, September 7, 2008

Tropical Update: TS Lowell – A sketchy lad

So I saw this TS Lowell tropical system form up Saturday night but held off until tonight to post anything on it, mostly because I didn’t like how the adverse upper level winds suddenly went “magical” and allowed the storm to develop. That is a hell of a lot of energy to reroute/disperse in such a short time. Turns out it was a pretty good call to hold back a bit.

During the first model run it looked like we might be “full systems go” for some tropical swell later this week…but watch what happened.

Forecast Saturday night.

Then Sunday morning

And Finally Sunday evening

As you can see it doesn’t paint a lovely picture…here is the kicker...even though the storm center skirts over the shadow it doesn’t bring a lot of energy with it.

I would still look for a slight increase in tropical SE swell (mostly short-period…almost like SE’erly windswell) by Tuesday evening and then holding into Wednesday before fading out later in the week. Likely this will get lost in the more dominant SSW swell…but we can always cross out fingers and hope that TS Lowell pulls his head out.

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