Tropical Alert - Hurricane Celia goes Category 5

The National Hurricane Center estimates that Hurricane Celia reached Category 5 strength this afternoon. Sustained winds are around 140-knots with gusts reaching 170-knots.



What does this mean for her swell?

Well these storms are notoriously finicky…and even the ones that look like home runs can fail to produce swell. Remember Hurricane Norbert from a couple of seasons ago...

http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/search?q=norbert

read the posts below the hurricane outlook and you can see how a storm (Hurricane Norbert) that was even better looking than Celia (not as intense, but with a much better track and a lot closer)…totally busted.

From a forecast perspective...you guys know that I like to keep things conservative. So until I see some real satellite data, not just visible images, but actual measureable wind speeds I am going to keep wave heights on the lower side.

Still...because she is more intense, and I am seeing some good winds leading into the storm from the ITCZ, I will add some size to the forecast.

At this point it looks like the average S-SE facing spots will be more in the shoulder-head high range with some overhead sets when the swell peaks on Monday. Top SE spots will likely have sets going a couple of feet overhead and maybe a little larger on some of the bigger sets...I don't think I would add much more than that right now.



That being said…if I was made of money, and had a lot of spare time, I would probably try and get in position to see if I could get a lucky break and have this swell come in bigger. But at the same time I wouldn’t totally count on Celia producing. It is nice that we have an ok southern hemi SSW-SW swell to backstop the tropical stuff.

I will let you guys know if I get some solid data...there should be some better information tomorrow.

Tropical Alert – Hurricane Celia moving into the Socal swell window

Hurricane Celia has finally tracked far enough west to to reach the Southern California swell window…well at least the extreme SE portion of it…and in the process she has managed to intensify and become more organized.



Celia’s current wind speeds are holding around 100-knots with gusts hitting 120-knots at times, which classifies her as a Category-3 (Major) Hurricane…and is sort of the tropic’s way of saying…”bite me” to La Nina. (La Nina hasn’t actually formed yet…we are still in El-Nino/Neutral…La Nina is supposed to set in over the next 3 months…but Celia can still give “cooling trend” the finger).

Right now Celia’s storm-track is going to continue to move her through warm water for the next couple of days, possibly letting her reach Category-4 strength sometime on Thursday…and then finally starting to weaken on Friday. Her current movement path is WNW (280) at about 8-10 knots which isn’t bad considering that the storm has estimated tropical storm strength winds stretching for almost 200 miles in the NE and SE quadrants, which is where any swell that she sends our way will develop.



From a surf standpoint…Celia is looking better and better…her strong wind speeds, decent diameter, and favorable movement path/speed, are all combining nicely and if she holds together we will see some pretty good swell from her.

Finding swell from her, on the other hand, may be a little tricky at first. Since the core of the storm is just starting to move into our swell window today it means that conceivably there will be some new SE swell (155-160) arriving later on Friday, June 25th…but counting on that swell will be a little dicey. Due to its extreme SE angle only a handful of areas will see that energy…and then you have to add in the fact that tropical swells are pretty fluky in general…all of which makes committing to any real jump in tropical surf size on Friday pretty hard. The way I would look at it is like this…sure there is a shot at some new tropical swell Friday evening, but I probably won’t waste much time checking it. If I happen to be close by a SE exposed spot and the winds look decent Friday afternoon…then it might justify a quick look but I would keep my expectations low.

The meat of Celia’s swell is likely to arrive over the weekend…peaking late on Saturday through Sunday, and possibly into Monday (if the storm holds together). By then the swell direction will be more Southerly (170-180), which means more spots can pick it up…and more of the storm’s outer winds will have moved into our window (a couple of days before) allowing more fetch for swell production. Sizewise it is still a bit hard to gauge…but it is looking like consistent shoulder-head high surf for most S facing spots and then sets going overhead, to possibly a couple of feet overhead at the standout S-SE breaks.

What is nice about this storm in particular is that the tropical swell is going to be mixing with some decent sized SW swell, which while it isn’t coming in from the same swell direction, should offer up enough to surf to keep us from getting burned by Celia if the hurricane fails to produce somehow (which tropical storms, even good looking ones, often do). With the SW’er in the water you will have a good chance of getting fun waves this weekend, particularly on Sunday, and if Celia comes through then there could be some legit size at the S facing spots as well.

ONE MORE THING…

TS Darby formed up last night…and while he isn’t in our swell window it looks like he will reach hurricane status over the next 12-18 hours while he moves into the SE swell window for Baja Sur. If you are heading to Baja, or Central Mainland Mexico…you are definitely going to want to keep an eye on him.



...so much for a quiet tropical season...

Tropical Alert – two tropical storms, one in our window, and the other heading our way

Over the last week or so the tropics have gone from 0-60…and it looks like it is just going to pour on the activity over the next few days.



We have two storms moving through the East Pacific Tropics this morning. The first system is Tropical Storm Blas…who formed up on June 17th. The first few forecast runs had TS Blas being a relatively weak system who would have dissipated back to a remnant low before hitting the Socal swell window…fortunately tropical systems like nothing better than to screw with the computer models…and so instead of weakening, Blas has intensified, shifted his track (to a better direction) and is now moving into our swell window. Blas will start to weaken again as he reaches cooler water but it looks like he will manage to send us some swell before he starts to fall apart.



At this point it looks like we will see a little SE swell from Blas…nothing outstanding…but there should be some rideable surf pushing into those little SE facing nooks and crannies that can only pick up the SE swell. We will see this new tropical energy moving in late on June 22nd…but with the peak of the swell hitting mostly on the 23rd. Wave heights won’t be that impressive, most spots will be the knee high range…but a few of the top SE facing spots, mostly through Orange County and a few other SE facing beaches will get a little punchier and a little bigger, tapping out in the chest high range…with a couple of bigger sets now and then.



The second system, TS Celia, is cranking along in the coastal waters just off of Central America. She is already a pretty strong Tropical Storm and she is intensifying rapidly, with winds hitting 55-65 knots at times in the key areas of the fetch . The hurricane model has her reaching hurricane strength early on Sunday and then holding that way for a couple of days. Unfortunately the storm is still a ways from the Southern California swell window…(well at least right now)…but the latest forecast are showing this storm moving further west, eventually reaching our swell window, in about 4 days…if this happens we would likely see another, possibly stronger, shot of tropical SE-SSE filling in around the 26-27th.

There is still a couple of days of swell formation so make sure to check back for the latest swell details as we get closer. Have a great father’s day!

Tropical Update – Hurricane Rick – Chewing bubblegum and kicking a$$

I think that Hurricane Rick may be all out of bubblegum…because he is becoming a seriously angry looking storm.

Check out the latest Satellite photo from NOAA…you don’t draw hurricanes that look this perfect…let alone see one on a satellite photo.



The National Hurricane Center confirmed that Rick’s new estimated core winds are sustained at 155- knots with gusts reaching the 190-knot range…so we are talking about 186-mph sustained winds and gusts topping out near 230-mph, which is pretty ridiculous. Hurricane Rick is definitely well into the Category 5 storm range and is expected to maintain this intensity for the next couple of days.

Man even the NHC is getting almost poetic in the description of Hurricane Rick…check out what they wrote in the latest update….classic.

HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE WORD...SPECTACULAR. THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES ONE COULD SEE THE SUNLIGHT REFLECTING OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYEWALL AND THE STADIUM EFFECT THAT IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE HURRICANES.



At this point it looks like Rick may actually gather a little more strength over the next 12 hours and then go through what is called an “eyewall replacement/replenishment phase”, basically the storm becomes so intense that it actually sort of chokes itself off…as it does this the organized convection/spin that forms the hurricane “eye” is disrupted and the storm is forced to sort of check itself before it can gather its intensity again. Usually as this occurs we see the sustained winds take a decent drop in speeds…and it takes some time before the storm can gather its strength again. Unfortunately in this case the forecast models are also showing a change in the overall atmospheric conditions, with the introduction of some upper level sheering, at about the same time that Rick hits cooler water...which will likely speed up his destabilization and weaken the storm significantly from its current strength.

I know…I know… “That is great Adam, but how does that help me get waves”…damn you guys are impatient I was just getting to that. :)

Ok from a surf perspective…Rick is basically going to kick out some serious swell for all of the nearby areas…namely Mainland Mexico, which is so close that the affected areas are likely seeing some adverse weather possibly winds from him, and the Tip of Baja which he is traveling towards.

Since Rick has been hanging out and strengthening for the last couple of days I wouldn’t be surprised if new SE swell wasn’t already showing along the Tip of Baja…it won’t be huge yet…but the main push of swell will be arriving over the next day or so. With a storm this intense it is a little hard to gauge size…but conservatively the directly exposed areas would be consistently in the 10-15’ face range…with bigger bomb sets likely hitting 20’ (hell maybe bigger if the storm gets a good run at this Cat-5 strength). Personally I don’t think that the directly exposed spots will even be very surfable…just too much water moving around…but some of those partially exposed areas up in the Sea of Cortez both on the Baja Side, and potentially on the Mainland Mexico side (as the storm moves further west) could be a bit more survivable…not that I would ever advise anyone to go towards a Cat-5 storm.

How does this affect SoCal…at this point not much…the storm is still outside of our swell window. But, and this is sort of a big but, the forecasts are showing Rick potentially hitting the eastern edge of our swell window sometime early Monday morning…and still holding onto some of its intensity. I am not to stoked on the odds of this happening, mostly because storms have a tendency to hook back to the NE this time of year…and if the forecast run is already showing that recurve there is a good chance that it will be more defined by the time it actually happens, which means that it might not even reach our window before going back to the NE and crushing Cabo or something.

But let’s get hypothetical for a moment and say that the forecast is correct…if the storm does follow the current track, it would put it inside of our swell window for about 12-20 hours as it hooks back to the NE, still around Cat-4 strength. We get a bonus in that the storm is still very strong, has established sea-state, and is moving even more towards us (so does the Pacific Side of Baja Sur)…we get a negative for only a portion of the storm making it over the swell window shadow, and the relatively short time it would have to generate fetch/swell. So potentially we could see a new SE swell (155-165) heading our way for the 21st…likely in the head high to overhead range on the sets, and possibly bigger if the storm moves further into our swell window (or hangs in place for some reason).

So that being said…I am not putting much faith in a significant swell for Southern California at this point…most of us know that a hurricane/tropical system can pull up lame in the swell-department for all sorts of different reasons. I am however sort of cautiously optimistic that Rick can reach our swell window…and I will definitely dial in the forecast sizes/arrival times as this becomes more likely. In the meantime…I will have to continue to watch the stupid computer and see what Mr Ricky does…stupid hurricanes.

Swell Alert - Hurricane Norbert sending SE swell to SoCal

I am getting sort of sick of this storm...but fortunately I don't think I will have to issue too many more forecasts for Norbert. Looks like Norbert is finally starting to dial into a more consistent forecast track and some of the bigger differences between the models have started to resolve, which is just "fancy speak" for we now have a better idea of what this storm is going to do and how strong it will be when it does.


just waiting to f%#k up Baja Sur

They have revised the storm strength back to a Cat-3...sort of in the middle of the Cat-3 range. It is sort of hard to tell if the NHC has just downgraded winds or if the storm has weakened...there is actually a pretty big difference when it comes the swell it creates. Weakening storms are never good, even if they are just barely weakening compared to sustained wind speeds. Anyway, despite the wind difference there is going to be some surf from ol Norbie...so we can plan on riding some waves.



Currently Norbert is about 300 miles SSW of the tip of Baja and is moving NW around 8-10 knots with wind speeds holding around 100-knots and gusts topping out around 120-knots. Right now the combination of Norbert's storm track and intensity as well as movement speed are all pretty good for swell production. I still wish he was either further west or was planning on spending more time in our swell window.

Unfortunately the SE swell direction (160-165 degrees) that Norbert will be sending us swell from is a pretty steep angle...it is one of those angles that really "warps the perception" of the swell since the exposed spots have the potential for large surf while the lesser exposed breaks will be considerably smaller. If you pick the wrong spot you could be very left out.

I never really want to name spots since I like to surf uncrowded waves as much as the next guy but I do want to give you guys a chance at finding waves. So check out this very simple map that sort of highlights what areas will be the most exposed to the SE swell. Green is good, Red still gets waves, and areas without any coloring are sort of screwed (from a tropical swell perspective...there will be some SSW swell and WNW energy out there too so it won't be totally flat or anything).



At this point we can expect new tropical energy to start arriving on the buoys late in the evening on Friday and then on our beaches on Saturday. The Peak of the SE swell will hit Saturday afternoon and hold through Sunday before starting to slowly back off as we head into next week.

Sizewise we can expect areas with average exposure to this swell, spots in Ventura, parts of N. Los Angeles, S. Orange County, and a few in N. San Diego, to see consistent tropical waves in the shoulder-head high and sometimes overhead range. Standout SE facing breaks in North Orange County and a few other select areas will have surf going overhead to well-overhead on sets...with the potential for some of the top breaks to near double-overhead on the biggest sets.

Remember if you are looking for larger surf it is important to pick a well exposed break...there is going to be a very big size difference as you move from the top exposed breaks down to less exposed ones.

Oh and winds are looking a bit funky for Saturday (much cleaner on Sunday)...I will give you a better update on Conditions tomorrow.

Tropical Alert - Hurricane Norbert - Looking even better

The National Hurricane Center updated his positioning and forecast track and Norbert got even better looking this morning.

It looks like Norbert may have moved into the very SE portion of the SoCal swell window around midmorning here on Wednesday...and the extended forecast has him moving further westward and staying in our swell window longer than the previous updates.

Norbert has also intensified and is being classified as a "Major" hurricane with wind speeds holding steady in the CAT-3 range (100-knot sustained winds and 120-knot gusts). Looks like he could even get stronger as we move into Thursday (NRL has him reaching 120-knots sustained and 140-knot gusts...which, if you don't mind the expression, is pretty f-ing gnarly). Check out the latest NRL forecast.



From a swell making perspective it is Thursday into early Friday that is really going to make (or break) this swell. The forecast models are calling for the storm to intensify as it pushes almost directly towards SoCal.

Check it out...see the N-NNW track as the storm hooks into its recurve back into Baja Sur



Since Norbert moved into our swell window a bit earlier that I was anticipating I am going to push up the swell arrival times on this tropical SE swell (160-165). Right now it looks like the longer-period energy will start arriving later on Friday, mostly near the end of the day unless Norbert moved into our window a lot earlier than the satellites indicated. The peak of the swell will hit by Saturday around midday and then hold strong into Sunday before fading out.

There are still a couple of things I don't like about this storm... I wish it was a little further west in positioning (or was planning on moving more westward), just so that the swell angle wasn't so SE. The SE angle is going to really limit what areas will be able to pick it up. At this point I think that North Orange County will see the lionshare of the energy, with a smaller amount making it into North LA and a few other spots that have some limited exposure. I also wish that it was going to spend a little longer in our swell window before turning around to wreak Baja Sur...a couple of extra days in our window would have us in waves for days instead of turning of the swell rapidly as it moves back out of our window.

Anyway, and this is me being super conservative, I am now expecting shoulder-head high surf for most of the average SE facing spots. Top SE facing spots in N. Orange County will have overhead+ sets as this peaks.

Maybe Norbert will stop messing with me now and stick to a forecast track so that I don't have to send out many more updates. (I am sure I will be back talking about Stupid Norbert tomorrow).



look into my eye

Tropical Alert - Hurricane Norbert (man it is hard to take the name seriously)

Norbert just got a little better looking for SoCal...and while it hasn't moved into our swell window or anything it is showing a better forecast track and the potential for some SE swell for the upcoming weekend.

Check out Norbert's latest forecast track (from the NRL forecasts)



You can see that the new forecast run has Norbert moving a little further west into the SoCal swell window before he starts to recurve back into Baja Sur. I wish that he spent a little more time in our window and got a little further west but this is much better than what I was seeing yesterday.

Current forecasts have him topping out around 80-knots with nearly 100-knot gusts with most of his strengthening occurring in the SoCal swell window.

Here is the latest satellite photo...




And this is a satellite shot with a bit wider angle so you can see his relative size (he is actually a pretty good-sized tropical system...estimated 180-220 miles across)




From a surf standpoint it is still a little early to get a great read on what we can expect swellwise...there is still a lot that can happen to poor little Norbert before it can send us some waves. Right now I would expect some new tropical swell, probably around shoulder-head high at the better spots, to arrive late Saturday and peak into Sunday before fading out fast early next week...but like I said this is still a ways from forming.

I will keep you posted as the storm continues churning along...who knows maybe the forecast track will improve a little more tomorrow.

A note on Baja Sur - This storm is a definite wave-maker for Baja Sur...in fact new SE-S swell should be filling into Cabo as I type this. Well-overhead surf will peak more on Wednesday/Thursday for the exposed areas along the tip for the next couple of days and then shift more to the Pacific Side as the storm tracks further west. There is a lot of potential danger from this storm as it nears land later this week...lots of wind and rain and flashfloods as it makes landfall. So if you are planning a trip to get hurricane swell in Baja you definitely want to err on the side of caution and pay close attention to the latest tropical updates from authorities.

Tropical Alert: Tropical Storm Marie - New storm forms in the East Pacific

Well the East Pacific Tropics had been pretty quiet over the last few weeks but it looks like conditions, especially the upper level winds, have improved and we are seeing the storm production turn back on.

Tropical Storm Marie formed this morning already inside of the Southern California swell window. She isn't the biggest or most intense storm yet but she is expected to intensify over the next 24-30 hours. Current forecasts are showing her reach really close to hurricane speed sometime Thursday afternoon, but not quite get all the way there.

Here is the NRL forecast for Marie...you can see the slight NW jog she makes over the next day...and then sadly she veers out to the west and weakens.



Here is a shot of her from the GOES Satellite...she is showing some decent cloud rotation and circulation on both the upper and lower levels.



Finally here is the current National Hurricane Center forecast...looks like she will stay pretty slow moving over the next few days before pushing off to the west.



From a surf standpoint Marie doesn't look like the best wave-maker...at least right now. She isn't all that wide, and forecasts don't have her more intense winds extending very far from the core of the storm. At this point I am looking for a moderate waist-chest high S-swell (180-190) from Marie, likely starting to arrive late Saturday and then peaking on Sunday before dropping off on Monday. The problem is going to be finding this swell since it will be mixing with SSW swell from the Southern Hemi, some WNW swell from the NPAC, and some good-sized wind-bump from increasing local NW winds. Really I am just expecting this tropical energy to add to the overall swell mix and, if our local conditions permit, help to give us a touch more size and consistency as everything comes together.

If I see any significant changes, or get really bored, I will send another update as this storm develops.

Another Tropical Update (outside of our area) - Texas is about to get bent by Hurricane Ike

Again I have been sort of straying outside of the SoCal focus of my blog...but when you see something like this as a forecaster it is difficult not to pay attention to it.

If you have been watching the news or listening to the national weather you know that Hurricane Ike has been careening around the Caribbean like some sort of drunken sailor causing all sort of havoc.

Well he has finally cleared Cuba and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Now that Ike is back over water (and the nice warm/wet air-mass that sits over the Gulf) he is starting to intensify again and is forecast to cap out with wind speeds gusting near 135-knots (holy crap!).

Right now his current forecast track has him basically cornholing Southern Texas somewhere between Galveston and Corpus Christi late this week...likely later on Friday. (Though with New Orleans' luck he will probably recurve at the last minute and mow down Louisiana instead).

Ike is a pretty solid storm both in diameter and intensity. NHC is calling for the 50-knot wind radius in both the NE-NW quadrants to extend out to about 120-150 miles from the core (which with his current movement track is sometime referred to as the "death-zone")

Check out the current NRL Storm Track



And here is a visible-satellite shot



Surfwise Ike is moving slow enough that he will be kicking out swell all over the Gulf of Mexico from Texas all the way back through the Panhandle/West Coast of Florida.

Naturally the biggest swell will be directly along the storm path so Southern Texas will see some very large surf...there may even be a small window of surfable conditions to go along with the first part of the new swell. I am expecting new swell to arrive late tonight and to continue to build through Thursday (and really continue to build until the storm makes landfall).

If it is going to be surfable Thursday will be the day, but please listen to the local authorities and if they say to evacuate the get the hell out of the way of the storm.

Here is a great look at the significant wave heights moving into the area...this is a great local swell model that Mark Sponsler over at Stormsurf.com has on his site.

Waves hitting Texas

If any of you Texas surfers get a chance to surf some of Ike's swell send over some pictures!

Tropical Update: TS Lowell – A sketchy lad

So I saw this TS Lowell tropical system form up Saturday night but held off until tonight to post anything on it, mostly because I didn’t like how the adverse upper level winds suddenly went “magical” and allowed the storm to develop. That is a hell of a lot of energy to reroute/disperse in such a short time. Turns out it was a pretty good call to hold back a bit.

During the first model run it looked like we might be “full systems go” for some tropical swell later this week…but watch what happened.

Forecast Saturday night.



Then Sunday morning



And Finally Sunday evening



As you can see it doesn’t paint a lovely picture…here is the kicker...even though the storm center skirts over the shadow it doesn’t bring a lot of energy with it.



I would still look for a slight increase in tropical SE swell (mostly short-period…almost like SE’erly windswell) by Tuesday evening and then holding into Wednesday before fading out later in the week. Likely this will get lost in the more dominant SSW swell…but we can always cross out fingers and hope that TS Lowell pulls his head out.

Tropical Update – TS Karina – straight out of nowhere

Things pull together pretty fast in the tropics…yesterday we had a patch of badly organized thunderstorms…then the upper level winds shifted and bam!...we have a new tropical storm.

Unfortunately TS Karina doesn’t look like much of a wave maker…she is in our swell window but she is small and her core winds are just barely reaching TS strength.

Forecasts are showing her dropping back to a depression by Wednesday evening.

From a surf standpoint I would expect a bit of short-period S swell for Baja Sur but any swell that can actually make it up to SoCal will likely be lost in the more dominant Southern Hemi energy.

It is worth keeping an eye on her though...with such a slow movement path, and a decent storm track, we may see her strengthen enough to generate some better surf. I am not holding my breath though.

Tropical Update: New Tropical Storm Iselle

Hey gang...we had a new tropical storm spin up pretty fast this morning...basically it jumped from a tropical wave (which is usually a concentrated area of thunderstorms and weather disturbances) to Tropical Storm Iselle with winds already above the 35-knot range in just a handful of hours.


Currently she is about 600 miles SSE of the Tip of Baja moving WNW around 7-9 knots. Forecasts have her strengthening over the next couple of days...possibly becoming a very strong tropical storm or even a weak hurricane.

You can see on the NRL Satellite picture she is already starting to show some signs of convection and rotation both in the upper and lower levels of the storm.




From a swell perspective this storm is already in the Tip of Baja swell window and should be generating waves for those exposed breaks. Based on today's forecast I would expect new tropical SE-SSE swell to begin slowly building on Friday, likely peaking overnight into Saturday with surf in the chest-shoulder high range...and maybe bigger if she gets more intense or slows down in her movement a bit more.

She isn't as well positioned for SoCal though. At her current rate Iselle has about 30 hours of traveling before she reaches the SoCal swell window and there is still a lot of things that need to come together for us to get swell from Iselle...

If I were overly optimistic, (which I am not at this time), based on today's forecasts I would be on the lookout for new tropical SE swell to show at the exposed spots of mostly Orange County, late on Sunday and into Monday. In reality I think that we have about a 50/50 shot of SoCal getting much surf from Iselle...cross your fingers...maybe we will get lucky and she can hit our window with a halfway decent storm track and lots of power.

Tropcial Alert - Hernan...starting to kick a little ass

Our latest tropical system...TS Hernan is looking a bit better than he did yesterday. He is slowing down and becoming more intense and more organized...all of which were issues that I was having with him yesterday. (Really he sort of needed to sack up a little bit with a name like Hernan...)

Current forecasts have Hernan moving WNW (285 degrees) at about 12 knots. His wind speeds are already up into the 55-knot range with gusts hitting about 65-knots which puts him right on the edge of becoming a hurricane. In fact the current forecast model says that he will reach CAT-1 strength sometime in the next 12-15 hours (sometime late Thursday night or early Friday morning)...it also shows that his swell-producing wind radius will grow as he intensifies.



You can see in the satellite that he is already becoming more organized...with the upper level circulation beginning to match the surface level winds.




This is a QuikSCAT pass that caught him as he started to intensify this morning.



And finally here is the current NHC forecast track.




Now that he has started to make some improvements I will go ahead and revise my forecast as well...I still expect the mix of S-SE tropical swell to start showing some very minor energy late on Saturday (mostly after sundown). The swell will continue to build into Sunday and will eventually peak Sunday evening into Monday. At this point I am expecting the decent S facing spots to have chest-shoulder high sets with some bigger waves mixing in.

Standout S facing breaks, particularly breaks that focus tropical swells like those in North Orange County, will be closer to shoulder-head high on sets with a few bigger waves mixing in at times.

Tropical Update - Tropical Depression 09e (likely to become Tropical Storm Hernan)

So we had a new tropical depression (9E) spin up this morning...and so far it is continuing to quickly become more organized. Current NHC forecasts are calling for this depression to become named Tropical Storm Hernan within the next 24 or so hours.

As you can see from the charts this storm is already positioned within the SE portion of the SoCal swell window...though in its current form it isn't much of a wave maker.



TD-9e's current forecast track is showing a WNW movement at about 16 knots which is not that conducive for swell production.




It does look like the storm may take a bit more of a NW-WNW movement angle and slow down just a touch as it intensifies. At this point I am not super impressed with this storm...it is a bit small, moving too fast, and not really intense enough to generate quality surf...about the only thing it does have going for it is that it is already in our swell window...so any improvement it makes will automatically get passed into the swell it kicks out (so no waiting for the storm to actually become unshadowed).

From a surf standpoint, based on today's forecasts, I am expecting a minor...waist-chest high (at best) S-SE swell moving into expose SoCal beaches later on Saturday...and likely peaking on Sunday.

Baja Sur will be better exposed to this swell, particularly on the Pacific Side, and should have waves moving in on Friday and peaking Saturday before fading out...I would plan on waves being in the chest-shoulder high range for the exposed areas down there...with bigger sets as the tropical swell mixes with some southern hemi energy over the weekend.

And finally here is a satellite photo from the NRL...check out the lower level clouds (the darker grey ones)...they are already starting to show the classic "spin" of a tropical system.

TS Genevieve - total underachiever

I was checking out Genevieve...our only still active tropical storm in the EPAC...and it is still hard to get a read on her.

The National Hurricane Center has increased her intensity but hasn't quite pushed her into actual hurricane strength. At the same time she is showing some good rotation and a well-defined eye-wall on the latest satellite photos. Likely she is teetering on the edge between storm and hurricane.

She has moved into our swell window...but her track is still out west...and she is expected to start to weaken over the next few days. She isn’t the biggest storm either, which doesn't help swell production.

Here check out this sat photo and you can get a better "big-picture" perspective of her size.



Based on timing it looks like we are going to see some tropical swell from Genevieve arrive in SoCal over the weekend. There will be a slight pick-up in SE energy later on Saturday with the bulk of the SE swell (that slowly turns more southerly) arriving on Sunday.

At this point I am not expecting much over chest-shoulder high for the better spots...maybe a few bigger waves at the standouts. It will be in the 10-12 second period range so even the top spots will be sort of gutless and windswelly. Fortunately we will have some more SSW southern hemi swell on tap so we might see a halfway decent cross-up at the combo breaks.

Tropical Storm Genevieve - Looking a little better

I am still not totally sold on TS Genevieve in terms of her being a swell producer but she is starting to improve a little in the current forecast run.

The NHC and the NRL have both slowed down her rate of forward movement to about 6-8 knots which is much better than the 15-knots she was cruising at before. This gives her a little more time to produce waves before moving off the "sea-state" that she has generated.

Unfortunately her track is still very westward, which puts her at an oblique movement path to SoCal which isn't that great. Sort of a trade off between the storm speed and forecast track at this point. Check out the NRL forecast...



One point in her favor is that she is still supposed to strengthen into a Hurricane in the next couple of days...and do it inside of our swell window. If this occurs and we get a little more WNW out of her track I will get a little more excited...as it is I think SoCal is going to see some minor S-SE swell from her...most of which will mix in with a more dominant S swell from the Southern Hemi.

Check back I will have more details on her if she continues to improve.

Oh and here is one more pic from the satellite...which is sort of cool...you can see a lot of the "spin" in the image.

Tropical Storm Fausto - Waves on the way

Fausto had a pretty good run over the weekend...and in fact he was just downgraded to a tropical storm this afternoon, so he had some legs.

We actually have 2 tropical systems cruising in the EPAC right...check out the latest NHC update...



TS Genevieve is still a ways to the SE and out of our swell window but Fausto has spent the last 24-30 hours cruising right on the edge of the SoCal SE window.

The most interesting thing is that Fausto made a more NW'erly jog on Sunday and strengthen up to Cat 2 while he was doing it. Both of these things are pretty good swell generators...here check out the University of Hawaii's Tropical Page...(the solid lines are actual storm track while the dotted lines are forecasted track and strength.)



With the NW'erly track, the increase in wind speeds, and the storms close proximity, I am looking for another decent shot of tropical S-SE swell (160-170) to arrive later this week. At this point I think that we will see a slight increase in tropical swell on Tuesday but the bulk of the swell energy won't arrive until Wednesday-Wednesday afternoon. About the only think limiting the swell will be how close the system was to the edge of our swell window, which basically translates to how much of the storm (and its swell producing winds) were being shadowed by the Baja Spur.

Sizewise I think that we are going to see another shoulder-high+ SE swell from Fausto, probably bigger (closer to overhead) in North OC, and it will peak Wednesday afternoon. At the same time we will have a new SW swell filling in from the SPAC so even the spots that aren't so exposed to the SE angle should have some waves coming through as well.

Tropcial Alert - Tropical Storm Genevieve

TS Genevieve formed this morning and is currently positioned about 300+ miles off the Coast of Southern Mainland Mexico. She is moving west at a pretty fast clip...almost 14-15 knots.

She is expected to intensify over the next few days...potentially becoming a hurricane later this week.

Right now forecasts are not really looking that good for swell production. Baja and the Tip will see waves from her but they won't be as good as what we had from Fausto.

Her fast movement, the westward movement track, and lower wind speeds are all going to hamper swell generation.

She is worth keeping an eye on...but at this point I am not expecting a ton of surf from her...particularly for Southern California.

Tropical Storm Fausto - Potential Wave Maker

Man I think we should go back to naming storms after the wives and girlfriends of the forecasters in the National Hurricane Center...Fausto is sort of a lame storm name. Better yet we should just name them after swear words...this one could be Tropical Storm Mother F-er or something. You have to admit that you would pay a lot closer attention to a Hurricane Asskicker than to a Fausto. (yeah I know I got some issues)

Anyway TS Fausto formed up here on Wednesday and is forecast to strengthen as it tracks to the WNW at around 13-14 knots.

Current forecasts have Fausto nearing Hurricane strength, possibly becoming a hurricane, somewhere late on Friday or early Saturday, which is also when they have the storm moving into the SoCal SE swell window.

So there is potential for Fausto to be a wave-maker but there are still a couple of days of development before that becomes reality.

It is in a better position to send waves to the Tip of Baja...and as it strengthens it likely will send in some building SE swell into the exposed breaks. At this point I would expect those waves to arrive on Saturday, peak on Sunday/Monday and then fade out. There will be a bigger S swell from the Southern Hemi hitting right around that time so it might be a good time to roll the dice for a trip.

Here is the latest NHC forecast for Fausto



And here is the latest Sat Pic from the NRL.

Tropical Storm Douglas - setting up some waves for the Tip of Baja

Well we went from almost from 0-to-60 in the tropics over the last few days. We have had 3 named storms develop since June 27th and now the National Hurricane Center is forecasting another named system to develop in the next day or so.

Currently one of the three named storms is the former TD-4E which strengthened into Tropical Storm Douglas earlier this morning.

Check out the latest forecast run for TS Douglas



Waves for SoCal (yeah not so much)
As you can see from the red line TS Douglas is still out of the Southern California swell window but he is inching closer as he tracks to the NW at 8 knots. At this pace it looks like the surf-generating parts of the storm (the NE and SE) won't actually move into the swell window until some time later on Friday...unfortunately it doesn't look like Douglas is going to get much stronger so I don't think he will be much of a wave maker for SoCal...some small waves...but nothing to get real fired up about. If anything shows it won't be until we move into the weekend...likely later on Saturday and into Sunday.

Waves for Baja Sur
Baja Sur, in particular the Tip, is looking much better in terms of getting surf from TS Douglas. He is positioned only a few hundred miles from Cabo and while he doesn't have great overall wind speeds he is well-positioned and moving the right direction which really help generate swell. At this point it looks like the expose areas around the Tip and the East Cape will start to see new tropical S swell move in on Thursday afternoon and then peak into Friday. I expect wave heights to hold in the shoulder-head high range at the better exposed S facing breaks. Remember those sizes are at the Tip...wave height and set consistency will drop off the further north you move up the Pacific Side.

Waves for NorCal
We have a tropical region?