Tropical Update – Norbert is not quite a bust but it is looking smaller

I was just going over the buoys this afternoon and despite the nasty slop that we are seeing on the beach there is some tropical swell hiding in the background. I even saw some sets sneaking into some spots exposed to the SE’er but sheltered from the windswell which indicates we should have a better chance at some surf tomorrow.

Right now the Dana Point Buoy is pulling in about 3.5-4 feet of energy out of the S-SE, which for some reason this buoy always registers these swells as nearly due south no matter how much SE is in them.

Anyway here is a shot of the latest buoy update…



You can see the energy hiding under the windswell…with most of it coming in from 10-14 seconds, and some limited energy coming in from 14-17 seconds.

What does this mean?…well the assload of windswell we currently have blasting through the outer waters isn’t doing this SE swell any favors, mix that with the fact that the NHC downgraded Norbert’s storm strength in a key area of swell production and it looks like we are going to have to back down the wave sizes for tomorrow, which is a freaking bummer.

Check out the newest estimation of windspeeds from the www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/tropical.html site.



I still think that the exposed areas will have some fun…but the average spots are going to be closer to the chest-shoulder high range. The top SE facing breaks, mostly through North Orange County, should be in the shoulder-head high range on most waves with some overhead+ sets at times.

Winds still look much better for tomorrow and Monday as the Santa Ana conditions start to move in…lets cross our fingers that enough tropical swell (and the windswell combo) will stick around long enough for us to get a few waves from it.

Waves for the Weekend - Tropical SE swell and Santa Ana Winds

Let me start off this forecast by saying...Saturday is probably going to suck. I know the title of the post says "Tropical SE swell and Santa Ana Winds" but the winds don't get good till Sunday or Sunday afternoon.

Sorry to be a Debbie-Downer but I wanted to stop you guys from tearing down to the beach with your demented imaginations conjuring up surf porn featuring 100-yard tropical swell barrels getting blown open by toasty warm offshore winds. (I do the same thing).

Yes, the tropical SE swell hits on Saturday, but so does a buttload of W-NW winds. NWS is issuing Gale Warnings for waters out in the Nearshore islands tonight and they expect a good chunk of those onshore winds to hit our beaches on Saturday...at least 15-20+ knots in some areas. Also, just to jump on the dead-horse and beat it some more, the SE'er is going to be very select in what spots will pull in the full shot of energy. So the combo of onshore winds and a limited swell angle sort of poop on Saturday's waves.

Surfwise I am expecting a waist-chest high+ combo of SSW-SW and local NW swell for the average exposed spots on Saturday. The SE swell will be moving in steadily through the morning and should begin peaking in the afternoon. Those average SE facing breaks will eventually start hitting the shoulder-head high+ range, while the SE standouts see some sets going several feet overhead before sundown.

(Check it out...some of the Norbert swell is starting to hit the SoCal Buoys this afternoon.)



Sunday the winds for the morning are still a little iffy (it depends on how fast Saturday's junk blows through), but by midday and into the afternoon it looks like winds shift to the N-NE around 10-15+ knots and set up Santa Ana conditions. This will continue through the evening and into Monday.

Check out this Sea-Level-Pressure map from the University of Hawaii.

now that is surf porn!

This one is actually for Monday morning...you can see the position of the high-pressure over the Pacific Northwest, and the interior low down by the Sea of Cortez. Most importantly is the way the pressure gradient (the red lines) sets up over SoCal. You want to see that funky little dogleg that almost makes the lines look like they come up from the SE (my red arrows are sitting right on top of it).

Anyway surfwise on Sunday we can basically expect the same thing as Saturday afternoon. Most spots see average waves in the waist-chest high+ range. Top spots will be around shoulder high on sets. The SE facing spots will be running shoulder-overhead for areas with ok exposure. Standout SE facing breaks in N.OC and a few other areas will be running consistently overhead with sets going several feet overhead at times.

Surfing this weekend will probably take a little patience, and if you can spare it, I would probably spend a little time on the computer checking the cams/winds/buoys just to see how everything is coming together. I know it is can be a drag but it will definitely help you from getting burned by this mix of funky weather and swells. Obviously if I only had one day to surf I would pick Sunday hands down, the swell mix will be peaking and the winds look better. Remember to pick a SE facing spot if you want the bigger waves.

Here are the tides for the weekend.

Saturday
01:33AM 0.4' Low
07:48AM 4.8' High
01:47PM 1.4' Low
07:34PM 5.0' High

Sunday
02:00AM 0.5' Low
08:07AM 5.2' High
02:24PM 0.8' Low
08:16PM 5.0' High

Have a great one!

Swell Alert - Hurricane Norbert sending SE swell to SoCal

I am getting sort of sick of this storm...but fortunately I don't think I will have to issue too many more forecasts for Norbert. Looks like Norbert is finally starting to dial into a more consistent forecast track and some of the bigger differences between the models have started to resolve, which is just "fancy speak" for we now have a better idea of what this storm is going to do and how strong it will be when it does.


just waiting to f%#k up Baja Sur

They have revised the storm strength back to a Cat-3...sort of in the middle of the Cat-3 range. It is sort of hard to tell if the NHC has just downgraded winds or if the storm has weakened...there is actually a pretty big difference when it comes the swell it creates. Weakening storms are never good, even if they are just barely weakening compared to sustained wind speeds. Anyway, despite the wind difference there is going to be some surf from ol Norbie...so we can plan on riding some waves.



Currently Norbert is about 300 miles SSW of the tip of Baja and is moving NW around 8-10 knots with wind speeds holding around 100-knots and gusts topping out around 120-knots. Right now the combination of Norbert's storm track and intensity as well as movement speed are all pretty good for swell production. I still wish he was either further west or was planning on spending more time in our swell window.

Unfortunately the SE swell direction (160-165 degrees) that Norbert will be sending us swell from is a pretty steep angle...it is one of those angles that really "warps the perception" of the swell since the exposed spots have the potential for large surf while the lesser exposed breaks will be considerably smaller. If you pick the wrong spot you could be very left out.

I never really want to name spots since I like to surf uncrowded waves as much as the next guy but I do want to give you guys a chance at finding waves. So check out this very simple map that sort of highlights what areas will be the most exposed to the SE swell. Green is good, Red still gets waves, and areas without any coloring are sort of screwed (from a tropical swell perspective...there will be some SSW swell and WNW energy out there too so it won't be totally flat or anything).



At this point we can expect new tropical energy to start arriving on the buoys late in the evening on Friday and then on our beaches on Saturday. The Peak of the SE swell will hit Saturday afternoon and hold through Sunday before starting to slowly back off as we head into next week.

Sizewise we can expect areas with average exposure to this swell, spots in Ventura, parts of N. Los Angeles, S. Orange County, and a few in N. San Diego, to see consistent tropical waves in the shoulder-head high and sometimes overhead range. Standout SE facing breaks in North Orange County and a few other select areas will have surf going overhead to well-overhead on sets...with the potential for some of the top breaks to near double-overhead on the biggest sets.

Remember if you are looking for larger surf it is important to pick a well exposed break...there is going to be a very big size difference as you move from the top exposed breaks down to less exposed ones.

Oh and winds are looking a bit funky for Saturday (much cleaner on Sunday)...I will give you a better update on Conditions tomorrow.

Tropical Alert - Hurricane Norbert - Looking even better

The National Hurricane Center updated his positioning and forecast track and Norbert got even better looking this morning.

It looks like Norbert may have moved into the very SE portion of the SoCal swell window around midmorning here on Wednesday...and the extended forecast has him moving further westward and staying in our swell window longer than the previous updates.

Norbert has also intensified and is being classified as a "Major" hurricane with wind speeds holding steady in the CAT-3 range (100-knot sustained winds and 120-knot gusts). Looks like he could even get stronger as we move into Thursday (NRL has him reaching 120-knots sustained and 140-knot gusts...which, if you don't mind the expression, is pretty f-ing gnarly). Check out the latest NRL forecast.



From a swell making perspective it is Thursday into early Friday that is really going to make (or break) this swell. The forecast models are calling for the storm to intensify as it pushes almost directly towards SoCal.

Check it out...see the N-NNW track as the storm hooks into its recurve back into Baja Sur



Since Norbert moved into our swell window a bit earlier that I was anticipating I am going to push up the swell arrival times on this tropical SE swell (160-165). Right now it looks like the longer-period energy will start arriving later on Friday, mostly near the end of the day unless Norbert moved into our window a lot earlier than the satellites indicated. The peak of the swell will hit by Saturday around midday and then hold strong into Sunday before fading out.

There are still a couple of things I don't like about this storm... I wish it was a little further west in positioning (or was planning on moving more westward), just so that the swell angle wasn't so SE. The SE angle is going to really limit what areas will be able to pick it up. At this point I think that North Orange County will see the lionshare of the energy, with a smaller amount making it into North LA and a few other spots that have some limited exposure. I also wish that it was going to spend a little longer in our swell window before turning around to wreak Baja Sur...a couple of extra days in our window would have us in waves for days instead of turning of the swell rapidly as it moves back out of our window.

Anyway, and this is me being super conservative, I am now expecting shoulder-head high surf for most of the average SE facing spots. Top SE facing spots in N. Orange County will have overhead+ sets as this peaks.

Maybe Norbert will stop messing with me now and stick to a forecast track so that I don't have to send out many more updates. (I am sure I will be back talking about Stupid Norbert tomorrow).



look into my eye

Tropical Alert - Hurricane Norbert (man it is hard to take the name seriously)

Norbert just got a little better looking for SoCal...and while it hasn't moved into our swell window or anything it is showing a better forecast track and the potential for some SE swell for the upcoming weekend.

Check out Norbert's latest forecast track (from the NRL forecasts)



You can see that the new forecast run has Norbert moving a little further west into the SoCal swell window before he starts to recurve back into Baja Sur. I wish that he spent a little more time in our window and got a little further west but this is much better than what I was seeing yesterday.

Current forecasts have him topping out around 80-knots with nearly 100-knot gusts with most of his strengthening occurring in the SoCal swell window.

Here is the latest satellite photo...




And this is a satellite shot with a bit wider angle so you can see his relative size (he is actually a pretty good-sized tropical system...estimated 180-220 miles across)




From a surf standpoint it is still a little early to get a great read on what we can expect swellwise...there is still a lot that can happen to poor little Norbert before it can send us some waves. Right now I would expect some new tropical swell, probably around shoulder-head high at the better spots, to arrive late Saturday and peak into Sunday before fading out fast early next week...but like I said this is still a ways from forming.

I will keep you posted as the storm continues churning along...who knows maybe the forecast track will improve a little more tomorrow.

A note on Baja Sur - This storm is a definite wave-maker for Baja Sur...in fact new SE-S swell should be filling into Cabo as I type this. Well-overhead surf will peak more on Wednesday/Thursday for the exposed areas along the tip for the next couple of days and then shift more to the Pacific Side as the storm tracks further west. There is a lot of potential danger from this storm as it nears land later this week...lots of wind and rain and flashfloods as it makes landfall. So if you are planning a trip to get hurricane swell in Baja you definitely want to err on the side of caution and pay close attention to the latest tropical updates from authorities.