Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Tropical Alert - Hurricane Norbert (man it is hard to take the name seriously)

Norbert just got a little better looking for SoCal...and while it hasn't moved into our swell window or anything it is showing a better forecast track and the potential for some SE swell for the upcoming weekend.

Check out Norbert's latest forecast track (from the NRL forecasts)

You can see that the new forecast run has Norbert moving a little further west into the SoCal swell window before he starts to recurve back into Baja Sur. I wish that he spent a little more time in our window and got a little further west but this is much better than what I was seeing yesterday.

Current forecasts have him topping out around 80-knots with nearly 100-knot gusts with most of his strengthening occurring in the SoCal swell window.

Here is the latest satellite photo...

And this is a satellite shot with a bit wider angle so you can see his relative size (he is actually a pretty good-sized tropical system...estimated 180-220 miles across)

From a surf standpoint it is still a little early to get a great read on what we can expect swellwise...there is still a lot that can happen to poor little Norbert before it can send us some waves. Right now I would expect some new tropical swell, probably around shoulder-head high at the better spots, to arrive late Saturday and peak into Sunday before fading out fast early next week...but like I said this is still a ways from forming.

I will keep you posted as the storm continues churning along...who knows maybe the forecast track will improve a little more tomorrow.

A note on Baja Sur - This storm is a definite wave-maker for Baja Sur...in fact new SE-S swell should be filling into Cabo as I type this. Well-overhead surf will peak more on Wednesday/Thursday for the exposed areas along the tip for the next couple of days and then shift more to the Pacific Side as the storm tracks further west. There is a lot of potential danger from this storm as it nears land later this week...lots of wind and rain and flashfloods as it makes landfall. So if you are planning a trip to get hurricane swell in Baja you definitely want to err on the side of caution and pay close attention to the latest tropical updates from authorities.

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