Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Tropical Alert: Tropical Storm Marie - New storm forms in the East Pacific

Well the East Pacific Tropics had been pretty quiet over the last few weeks but it looks like conditions, especially the upper level winds, have improved and we are seeing the storm production turn back on.

Tropical Storm Marie formed this morning already inside of the Southern California swell window. She isn't the biggest or most intense storm yet but she is expected to intensify over the next 24-30 hours. Current forecasts are showing her reach really close to hurricane speed sometime Thursday afternoon, but not quite get all the way there.

Here is the NRL forecast for can see the slight NW jog she makes over the next day...and then sadly she veers out to the west and weakens.

Here is a shot of her from the GOES Satellite...she is showing some decent cloud rotation and circulation on both the upper and lower levels.

Finally here is the current National Hurricane Center forecast...looks like she will stay pretty slow moving over the next few days before pushing off to the west.

From a surf standpoint Marie doesn't look like the best least right now. She isn't all that wide, and forecasts don't have her more intense winds extending very far from the core of the storm. At this point I am looking for a moderate waist-chest high S-swell (180-190) from Marie, likely starting to arrive late Saturday and then peaking on Sunday before dropping off on Monday. The problem is going to be finding this swell since it will be mixing with SSW swell from the Southern Hemi, some WNW swell from the NPAC, and some good-sized wind-bump from increasing local NW winds. Really I am just expecting this tropical energy to add to the overall swell mix and, if our local conditions permit, help to give us a touch more size and consistency as everything comes together.

If I see any significant changes, or get really bored, I will send another update as this storm develops.


er said...
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er said...

A second Low Pressure off of Mexico has potential to form into a depression, so let's hope for consistency.