Friday, October 3, 2008

Waves for the Weekend - A little stormy but with plenty of swell

We are going to have a bunch of waves this weekend but the weather and winds don't look like they are going to cooperate enough to make it very fun.

On Saturday we are going to see a mix of SSW swells, local windswell, WNW energy, and some increasing tropical S-swell energy in the afternoon.

Wave heights are going to hold in the chest-shoulder high range at most of the decent breaks (both WNW and S facing). Top spots, particularly the S-facing standouts, good winter spots, and excellent combo spots will have shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in.

Unfortunately winds/weather will be the issue on Saturday. There is a new storm front that is forecast to move through SoCal bringing some increasing S-SW winds and rain through the morning...and then more rain and SW-W winds around 20+ knots by the afternoon. Check out the COAMPS model.

Here is the weather model for the morning as well...looks like most of the rain will be up in LA, Ventura, and Santa Barbara areas.

Now there may be a surf-pocket in the morning...particularly for the spots that are further south (OC and SD). A lot depends on the front and when it actually arrives. If it stalls out we may see cleaner conditions. Personally I think it is a good idea to give the cams a quick check in the morning and see if the winds and rain have head off. Here is a shot of where the front is as of this afternoon.

On Sunday we are going to see more swell as the SSW'ers hold, the windswell increases with the storm, and more WNW swell and tropical S swell build into the mix. Wave heights will be similar to Saturday but with a bit more size. Average spots will be in the shoulder-head high+ range while the standouts see overhead+ sets.

Shape isn’t looking great...usually we get strong NW winds that push in behind a front and they have a tendency to really slop things up. There may be a couple of protected spots but in general I am expecting mostly poor shape and crappy water quality if we get any sort of significant rainfall. Here is a shot of Sunday's winds...again they look on the lighter side in the morning but the onshore flow builds in really fast as we head to midmorning.

Here are the tides for the weekend...cross your fingers that the winds stay lighter than the forecasts...and have a good one!


01:19AM 3.1' High
04:59AM 2.7' Low
11:40AM 4.9' High
07:58PM 1.1' Low


12:21PM 4.6' High
09:30PM 1.2' Low

1 comment:

pushingtide said...