Friday, October 17, 2008

Travel Alert (and Waves for SoCal) - South Pacific Brewing up a new SSW swell

Over the last couple of days we have had a nice looking storm has pull together down in the South Pacific that will be sending out a new SSW-SW swell for Southern California, Baja Mexico, Mainland Mexico, and Central America that will hit during the second half of next week. (Oct 22-25th depending on Location).

Satellite passes recorded 40-45+ knot winds and seas in the 30-35 foot range, which is fairly decent by storm strength but not super intense overall. (Don't get me wrong I would still poop myself if I was caught in a boat in the middle of this...but it isn’t really that strong of a storm from a weather perspective).

Fortunately the storm has some good duration, a large fetch, a decent storm track, and was positioned so that its swell doesn't have to pass through the South Pacific Island Shadow, all of which are good things from a surf standpoint. Also since it is a little late in the SPAC swell season it is worth mentioning when a better SSW swell is heading our way.

The majority of this new swell will be heading towards Mainland Mexico and Central America but both Baja and Southern California should have plenty of fun waves from this swell as it peaks. Here is how it will break down.

Mainland Mexico & Central America

Since the swell is pretty SW (210-225) for these areas it hits about the same time across the region. Look for new long-period SW energy to start pushing in on Wednesday Oct 22 but with the peak of the swell hitting on Thursday-Friday 23-24th and then slowly backing over the following weekend. As this swell hits we can expect most SW exposed breaks to see consistent overhead surf while the standout spots see sets going several feet overhead at times. Deepwater spots may see bigger sets as well.

Baja Sur

The SW'er hits about the same time it does in Mainland Mexico but it won't have the same sort of wave heights. Look for some energy to start pushing through exposed breaks on the 22nd but the peak of the swell hitting the 23-24th and then a slow fade starting on the 25th. This swell will primarily hit the Pacific Side areas with the average exposed areas seeing shoulder-head high+ surf and the standout exposed spots seeing overhead+ sets.

Southern California

The SSW swell (190-205) has to push up a little further to reach SoCal so we can expect the swell arrival to be a bit later and the wave heights to be smaller that the other areas. Look for the long-periods to start arriving through the day on the 23rd and the peak of the swell hitting Oct 24-25th. Average breaks can expect surf in the chest-shoulder high+ range while the standouts, mostly in Orange County and San Diego, will have surf in the shoulder-head high range with inconsistent overhead sets at the top breaks. Even though SoCal will be a bit smaller that other areas on just this SSW swell, there is a good chance that we will have some WNW swell moving in about the same time...nothing huge, but enough to combo up the SSW'er, which is always nice.

1 comment:

spidah da kneeridah said...

Yes, yes, please make mine a combo meal thankyou...