Friday, October 24, 2008

Waves for the Weekend – SW swell holds while new NW swell starts to arrive

It is going to be a surf weekend. We are going to have a mix of SW and WNW swell, warm weather, light to light-offshore winds, (and probably plenty of crowded lineups to go along with it).

Our surf will be a mix of SW swell (190-210), that holds into Saturday before slowly fading out on Sunday, and small WNW energy that sort of hangs around through Saturday but increases as a new WNW pulse (290-300) starts to hit the northern counties (Ventura and LA) on Sunday before finally pushing into OC and SD later Sunday evening (and holding into Monday).

Here is a shot of the swell mix from this afternoon…you have to love SW swells sometimes.



And here is a shot of the CDIP forecast for the next few days…yes the sideways images are always annoying but once you get oriented you can see where the swell mix shows a bit better.



On Saturday average spots see chest-high+ surf while the average SW facing breaks see chest-head high waves. Standout SW facing breaks in Orange County and North San Diego will have some overhead faces through the morning.

Sunday will start out a little slower…more in the waist-chest high range at the average spots. A little bigger at the average SW facing breaks and close to shoulder high+ at the standout combo breaks. Looks like a few of top combo spots could see some chest-head high faces on the bigger sets in the afternoon (if you can find a spot not buried by the tide).

Winds look good for both days…look for light/variable to light offshore flow for the mornings and light/moderate onshore bump for the more exposed breaks through the afternoons.

I wish that there was a bit more WNW energy pushing through over the weekend…or at least the swell we are seeing would come in a bit more westerly. As it is…it looks like the SW swell is going to stay pretty lined up at the beach breaks…so we can expect some hollow but mostly closed out lefts marching down the beach. Points and reefs are going to have much better shape but since the beach breaks are sort of a lost cause it looks like the other spots are going to get pretty slammed crowdwise. I would plan on it being a bit frustrating at times.

Personally I am holding out some hope for Sunday/Monday. With a little luck the new WNW pulse will be strong enough to break up the fading SW’er…I don’t know about you but I am willing to sacrifice a little size to get a (mostly) uncrowded peak on a beach break somewhere…who knows maybe you like closeout lefts and crowded pointbreaks, you freak.

Have a great weekend!

Oh here are the tides...

Saturday
01:23AM 0.5’ Low
07:39AM 5.4’ High
02:03PM 0.8’ Low
07:50PM 4.7’ High

Sunday
01:54AM 0.8’ Low
08:04AM 5.7’ High
02:42PM 0.3’ Low
08:35PM 4.5’ High

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Just curious, how come these SW swells nail HB but when you drive just a little bit north (ie Bolsa) the surf is significantly smaller? You can see this on the CDIP models. Is it shadowing or something else?

Anonymous said...

Ah yeah, such an epic Friday!

Anonymous said...

World class. Jordy, Reyes and a host of supporting QS/locals surfing Indo lefts & Backdoor rights. Lots of cameras - look for coming pics.

The NSSA is having a contest on the s south. Poor kids - top-bottom rifling lefts promising mayhem.

southerncalisurfer said...

hey.. during the morning I just scoured redondo beach hoping for some surf.. but it was breaking right onto the sand :( i ended up at burnouts at the end.. but it was still ridiculous trying to get out before the wave smashed down on the sand :/ think tomorrow will be any better? and what tide would you say is best?

Anonymous said...

The contest at Base was epic!!!

Anonymous said...

Yeah, I had forgotten all about that. What a score this late in the season.

Now the Werewolf fog is in, wrecking any chance of a morning session. Gotta look for a place that holds the afternoon westerlies.

Anonymous said...

what NW swell Adam? Sunday sucked, what are you talking about bro?

Adam Wright said...

That NW swell is out there...but it depends on where you were surfing. Where did you paddle out?

If you were south of Ventura you won't see that WNW'er until this evening and into Monday. I have mentioned in my forecasts that I am not expecting much from that swell...maybe a few chest-shoulder high+ sets at the standouts in San Diego, Southern Ventura, and a couple of South Bay spots...but that peak day for the southern counties won't be till Monday.

Really the SW swell is much more dominant and if you were trying to find waves you should have been looking at SW spots not NW ones.

Anonymous said...

haha yea.. but i couldnt get to the sw spots.. got a ride from someone else :/ and it was redondo beach

Adam Wright said...

I usually hijack the car before I let it get to that point. :)

Anonymous said...

haha.. thanks for the advice :D