Sunday, November 30, 2008

Monday’s Surf – The new WNW’er peaks

Monday will definitely be a surf day. We have the new WNW swell (that really starting to grind its way into SoCal) and decent winds for the morning and most of the early afternoon. About the only lameness is a consistent layer of thick fog that is going to swing back and forth across the coastal areas.

Swellwise the majority of the energy hitting SoCal tomorrow will be the WNW swell (285-300) but there will also be some S swell (180-190) hiding in the background. Check out the CDIP…the swell is finally starting to show more around 290-degrees compared to a lot of the initial energy that was coming in closer to 300-degrees.

Most spots with some WNW facing exposure will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets. The standout NW facing spots, mostly in San Diego but also in the Ventura and South Bay areas, will have consistent shoulder-overhead sets. Top spots in San Diego will have sets going 2-3’+ overhead at times.

Winds look good…mostly light and variable through the morning but watch for some funky texture from the fog winds. Overall I would expect cleaner conditions at spots with some protection from light winds…the more open beach breaks may be a touch bumpy at times.

There is still going to be a pretty big size difference between the top NW facing spots and the average breaks…so if you are looking for bigger surf you are going to want to check those winter standouts. San Diego will have the most consistent, and the biggest, surf but Southern Ventura and the top South Bay spots will have some size as well. With the fog I am not so sure how worth it will be to do a lot of driving…you might spend a bit too much time on the road and not be able to see the surf when you get there. But if you are fine rolling the dice there will definitely be plenty of energy if you stick to the better areas.

Have a good one…here are the tides.

12:01AM LST 3.3’ H
03:39AM LST 2.9’ L
09:54AM LST 5.3’ H
05:53PM LST 0.1’ L

Surf Photos: A few shots of that WNW’er as it hits the Central Coast

Hey gang…here are a few shots that my buddy took (thanks Clint!) on Saturday as that swell was starting to hit up along the Central Cal coast. These guys were towing…and the wave was a ways a away but it still looks pretty heavy. Look close…the surfers look like tiny ants.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

NPAC Swell Update: Buoy 46059 is seeing the bigger WNW swell

I am sure that a lot of you are already watching the buoys waiting for the new WNW swell to arrive.

Well a chunk of the swell is already starting to hit up in Northern/Central California and will likely peak up there tonight and into tomorrow. Check out the current CDIP map for Central California.

My buddy, who is up in that area sent me a text that the swell, and I quote, “It is looking gnarly, lots of raw swell. Double overhead already and likely 15-18’ faces by sundown”…fricken sweet.

It won’t be that big in SoCal but we can expect consistent shoulder-head high surf for the average WNW facing spots. Top NW spots in San Diego, Northern Baja, as well as parts of Ventura, will have overhead surf with sets going 2-3’ overhead at times.

Check out the latest observations from the California Buoy (Buoy #46059). You can see that the peak of the swell pushed through closer to late afternoon…so SoCal should see the peak of the swell around Sunday afternoon/Monday Morning (at least these will be the surfable times…the swell really peaks overnight).

Here is the wave heights timeline…you can see that the buoy has been running about the same size for both of the NW swells that are currently showing…but…

…the swell period is quite different. The first swell, the smaller of the two, peaked around 16-17 seconds. The second swell is peaking at almost 20-seconds, which means it has a LOT more energy.

who does number 2 work for?

Anyway I just wanted to post a quick update. If you are looking for larger surf…make sure to check spots that have good exposure to the NW (290-300) and can focus the longer-period energy. Spots that need a more westerly swell angle (Like Santa Barbara, North LA, and OC) will have waves too but they will be smaller…so if you want big waves you might have to drive around a little.

Friday, November 28, 2008

Waves for the weekend – New WNW swell lining up for Sunday/Monday

We are going to have a surf weekend. New WNW-NW swell will be arriving over the next couple of days and winds and weather are expected to really clean up as well. About the only issue will be water-quality…thanks to the rain that pushed through earlier in the week…but by the time the swell starts to hit we will be a couple of days past the heaviest rains so hopefully there won’t be that much poo.

Swellwise we are going to see a couple of new swells from the North Pacific and a little bit of background SSW energy (so little that it will mostly get lost in the bigger NPAC swells). The first swell won’t really be that big…and it is coming in from a steeper angle which limits what areas can pick it up.

The first NW’er (290-300+) arrives late Friday night and peaks through the day on Saturday. On Saturday most spots will be in the waist high+ range. Standout NW facing spots in San Diego and Ventura will pick up more energy and will be in the chest-shoulder high range with a couple of shoulder high+ sets on the lower tides.

Sunday we will get a much stronger and slightly more westerly WNW swell (285-300+). This one will arrive with longer swell periods (it will start filling in with 20+ second periods but the peak of the swell will still be around 16-17 seconds and will arrive later Sunday afternoon and into Monday). Since this swell is bigger and coming in from a better angle most exposed spots will see more size. Look for average W facing breaks to build into the chest-shoulder high+ range by Sunday afternoon. Standout NW facing spots, particularly in San Diego (as well as Ventura and the South Bay), will have surf in the shoulder-overhead range with some sets going a couple of feet overhead on the lower tides.

Check out the CDIP forecast model (this is the weird sideways one).

If you look a little closer at the Dec 1st section of the model…you can see how that new WNW’er will wrap into each area. (Since the map is set for Dec 1st at 1am it actually means Sunday night…not Monday night).

Even with the new energy and the longer periods the larger surf from this swell is still going to really be focused in select areas. There will be waves at most exposed spots but if you are looking for larger waves try and aim for spots in the circled areas.

Wind and weather are looking better for the weekend (and Monday) as well. Saturday may have some morning fog but this burns off and we see sunny skies and mild weather through the rest of the weekend. Winds will be light and variable to light offshore through the mornings and NW winds will hold around 10-knots for the afternoons.

It really looks like Sunday afternoon and Monday will be the peak of the new swell that hits over the weekend (too bad it couldn’t have hit more on our Vacation)…so if you are looking for larger surf you are going to want to try and surf during that time frame. There will be plenty of playful sized surf for the rest of the weekend…nothing spectacular but enough that we can have some fun, especially as the weather starts to improve. That new WNW’er that will hit on Sunday does look good enough to do some driving if you need overhead waves…I wouldn’t spend hours on the road or anything but it will be worth heading down the road a little further to find a spot with good NW exposure.

Here are the tides…have a great weekend! (hope you aren't forced into too much shopping)

02:34AM LST 2.6 L
08:48AM LST 5.7 H
04:32PM LST -0.3 L
11:11PM LST 3.4 H

03:05AM LST 2.7 L
09:20AM LST 5.5 H
05:11PM LST -0.1 L

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Turkey Day Surf - A little sloppy with a high chance of afternoon coma

The surf isn't looking so good for Thursday. It will be rideable but there will still be some rain, some wind, and some nasty water quality to contend with.

In the water we are going to have a mix of WNW windswell/storm swell, some S swell (180-190), and some steeper NW swell hanging in the background.

Most spots will see some waist-chest high sets while the standout W facing breaks as well as the top combo spots, mostly through San Diego, see some shoulder high+ faces on the lower tides.

Kaser you can skip this part - Winds are looking light...but with consistent onshore flow out of the W around 5-knots through the morning. Afternoon winds pick up out of the WNW around 10-12+ knots. Periods of rain showers will continue to push through throughout the day as well. Check out the NWS winds for tomorrow morning.

Overall it looks like Thursday is going to be a bit sloppy...not totally blown out...but not clean either. Most spots are going to see semi-mushy/gutless crossed up peaks with short swell periods. Occasionally there may be a little punchier set if your spot has S facing exposure. The SD top spots look bigger and bit more consistent than other areas but the winds look stronger down there as well. You will also have water quality to worry about it...It dumped some rain at my place last night and I expect that was the case in most areas...water quality is going to be pretty poopy for the next couple of days until the bacteria counts start to drop. All in all it might be good to take it easy tomorrow...or at bare minimum try and avoid areas with heavy runoff.

Here are the tides

01:38AM LST 2.3 L
07:49AM LST 6.0 H
03:21PM LST -0.5 L
09:47PM LST 3.5 H

Happy early Thanksgiving! (man I am fired up for Turkey)...just an FYI - I will be skipping the forecast tomorrow so I can hang with the family and go into a turkey coma during the afternoon while watching football (which = awesome). I will be back at it on Friday.

Have a great one you guys!

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Wednesday’s Waves – Getting funky now

So I was just going over the WX charts for tomorrow and even though the storm is moving over Southern California it does look like we might have a couple of surf pockets. I think it will be a far cry from a surf day but if you have the day off, don’t mind rain or potentially poop filled water, then you might get a chance to snag a couple of waves.

We are going to have a mix of medium-short period W-WNW storm swell, some slightly longer-period NW energy, and some building S swell (180-190). On a side note I got out and caught a couple of waves at the local beach break (on Tuesday afternoon) and the S swell was doing most of the work…the tide was low, and there was a little west crossing it up, but a few of the sets were legit shoulder high+ on the face. There was no real point to that story except to say that the S swell was doing ok at sending in some inconsistent sets. Hopefully it will just get bigger as it combos up with the W energy.

On Wednesday the average spots will be in the waist-chest high+ range. The standout S facing breaks, standout WNW facing spots, and the good combo breaks will be in the shoulder-head high range on sets. Shape will be funky for most areas but winds should be swirling out of the S-SE so there will be some spots that will have semi-rideable waves.

These spots should not be hard to find…just grab a map and a pencil. Align the pencil so that the tip is pointing to the NW…that is the direction the wind is going to be blowing. Hold the pencil over the coastline and if the pencil is perpendicular to a beach then there is a good chance it will be clean(er) than other spots. That is my poor man’s MacGyver forecast tip of the day.

Winds tomorrow are going to be the funky part…basically they are going to be all over the place as the storm front moves over the area and starts to move inland. If the front hasn’t arrived or is just starting to, then winds will be S-SE…if it has passed your area then you are likely to get the W-NW clearing winds that follow a front. Want to see what I mean about “all over the place”…this is the COAMPS forecast for Wednesday morning…

According to this model SB has some WNW winds, but light. North LA, the South Bay, and North OC see N winds. And San Diego gets a mix of S winds for North SD and WNW winds for the South SD area. Freaking weird.

What this really means is…keep in mind that there may be some surf tomorrow in almost any area. Check the cams, call the lifeguard reports, and look out the window. If the swell holds, the tide drops, and the winds cooperate we might get a few waves before the holiday.

Here are the tides…good luck!

01:11AM LST 2.1 L
07:21AM LST 6.0 H
02:47PM LST -0.5 L
09:07PM LST 3.6 H

Buoys creeping up – more W swell for this evening

The race is on…the “outer” nearshore buoys are starting to see the new W swell, and a little bit of it is trickling in to our beaches as the tide drops.

Hopefully we will have the swell continue to build in fast enough that we can get a few waves before the winds and rain start to fill in as well.

Check out the harvest buoy…

It is nice to see the jump in the W swell…try and get some in a few hours if you can.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Tuesday’s Surf – A little surf window opening up

Over the weekend it looked like Tuesday was going to be pretty sloppy but as I looked at the charts this afternoon it looks like Tuesday might be a surf day.

There will still be some rain, maybe even some slight texture from light winds but overall it isn’t looking totally sloppy.

Right now we have this funky little low hanging just off the California coast. It even has some decent winds in the core of the storm and it is relatively close to SoCal…in fact it is right in the middle of our W swell window. Check out the satellite shot of this little spinner.

Swell from this storm should actually start filling in tomorrow (along with the weather)…it won’t be huge but it will definitely be bigger than what we saw on Monday. There will also be some new S swell (180-190) starting to fill in that might be able to cross up a few of the combo breaks.
For tomorrow I am looking for most of the average spots with some exposure to one or both of those swells to be holding around waist high…maybe waist high+ (with some bigger sets) on the lower tides.

The standout W facing breaks, mostly in Ventura and San Diego, as well as some of the really good combo breaks, will have some waist-chest high sets through the first part of the day but should start to see some shoulder high waves for the afternoon.

Winds for tomorrow morning look light…mostly light/variable with a semi-consistent onshore bent to it. Winds go more onshore in the afternoon but generally remain below 10-knots. Looks like the rain moves in by the afternoon for most areas. Here is the COAMPS wind forecast for Tuesday morning.

Now that I am seeing this storm holding off the coast I am a little more interested in surfing tomorrow. I am not totally committed yet…there are still a few things that bother me about tomorrow…

#1 is the morning tide – the high morning tides seriously need to fuck off.

#2 the approaching cold front – weather models almost never get these right, particularly when the storm is smaller and located around the mid-latitudes (the GFS has a weakness in the mid’s for some reason…usually undervalues wind speed projections).

#3 Rain – while it keeps the crowd down at the beach it delivers a lot of poo into the lineup…I am not sure I want to surf through another poo-slick.

Basically I am planning on keeping an eye on it through the morning…waiting for the tide to drop and crossing my fingers that it drains out, the swell comes up, and the winds stay down long enough to get a little session in. I would suggest taking it easy through the morning and getting in a camera check before driving down to the beach. Also try and stick with spots that have good exposure to the swell mix...either a really good WNW spot, good S facing spot, or good combo break.

Here are the tides…

12:42AM LST 1.9’ L
06:55AM LST 5.9’ H
02:13PM LST -0.3’ L
08:27PM LST 3.6’ H

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Monday’s Surf – fading and starting to get fugly

Monday will have a few waves but it looks like the weather starts to get funky and the swell will be fading.

Unfortunately the WNW swell that hit over the weekend is dropping fast…looks like it didn’t have enough fetch in our swell window to help it string together more than a couple of sessions. I was actually a little disappointed with how the WNW swell showed around my neck of the woods (North OC)…a few spots close by got fun on Saturday but I was always behind the eightball with other shit I had going on…by the time I could break free the wind had got to it. Sunday that swell was basically sad leftovers…some longboard fun but nothing to get fired up on. It looked like SD and Ventura did pretty well…particularly on Saturday. If anyone got photos and fee like sharing…email over if you get a chance

Anyway with the WNW swell dropping and just a small SW swell holding in the background there isn’t going to be a ton of surf tomorrow. Plus we got a high tide pushing through early in the morning which is going to honk up the dawn patrol.

Expect most breaks to have surf in the knee-waist high range while the standout combo spots in San Diego, and maybe South Orange County, see some waist-chest high+ sets. Expect soft slow shape early with some wind texture as well. Sets will be on the inconsistent side too…man I am just filled with great news.

Weather is looking funky…we have a new low hanging off the coast that will start to edge over SoCal later in the day. Winds are forecast to be light/variable through the morning but a general S-SE flow may start to develop around midday and then strengthen into Tuesday. Chance of light rain by the afternoon as well.

Really I am not planning on surfing tomorrow…nothing I saw forecast-wise is motivating enough to get out of bed early on Monday. Things do get better later this week as more S swell and more WNW energy starts to arrive, and next weekend is hinting that we might see some more Santa Ana flow as well. Sorry to be cryptic...I am burned out on typing right now...I post some more stuff on the longer-range set up tomorrow.

Here are the tides.

12:12AM LST 1.6’ L
06:28AM LST 5.8’ H
01:38PM LST -0.1’ L
07:42PM LST 3.6’ H

Swell Alert: Hawaii is about to get whacked

So this is a random swell alert but it is looking damn impressive.

Over the last couple of days the North Pacific storm track has really started to wake up, and like most of us it really isn't a morning fact it is really f-ing grumpy…hangover grumpy…like how grumpy you would be if you woke up from a 36-hour drinking binge still on the bathroom floor and your upstairs neighbor was doing tae-bo and playing death metal at max volume. Yeah the North Pacific looks that grumpy.

The short-range forecast is showing a very serious storm developing in the next 3-4 days that will very likely send a super-sized swell to Hawaii by the end of the week.

Check out this wave-model forecast for this storm. (As always a big thanks to Mark at for letting me use his images…make sure to check out his site )

No that is not an island sitting to the North of Hawaii…it is a big ass storm, fueled by a mixture of a cold storm from Siberia and a nice energy laden extra-tropical system from over by Japan. These extra-tropical storms are gnarly…almost ever major swell generated in the North Pacific is a result of a storm going extra-tropical.

And yes you are reading that right…the model is calling for nearly 50-foot seas near the core of the storm.

Based on today’s forecasts I am expecting almost 15-20-foot of deepwater NW swell hitting Hawaii on Friday and peaking into Saturday (Nov 28-29th). Swells with that much deepwater energy, when they hit those steep reefs around Hawaii, generally create waves in the 25-30’ face range at the average spots and potentially some 30-40-foot faces at top breaks like Jaws over on Maui.

If it pulls together it should be pretty spectacular.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Waves for the weekend - Lets do some surfboard riding

We are going to have some surf this weekend and both Saturday and Sunday look like surf days. About the only downer will be some patchy fog that could make visibility a problem at times.

Swellwise we are going to see a new WNW swell (280-300) move in this evening, peak early on Saturday, and hold into Sunday before slowly fading out. We will also have a small but slowly increasing SW swell (190-210) that begins to fill in a touch on Saturday but eventually peaks on Sunday.

Wave height for the average exposed areas will be in the waist-chest high range with some chest-shoulder high sets at times.

Standout breaks, mostly the top WNW facing spots in Ventura and San Diego as well as a few good combo breaks, will have surf in the shoulder-head high range with some overhead sets mixing in.

Weather/Wind looks good for both mornings (well except for the fog). We will have light and variable to light offshore winds for both mornings (more offshore on Saturday) and just variable winds below 12 knots for the afternoons. Sunday afternoon/evening we may see winds start to switch around to the S-SE.

Check out the COAMPS Forecast on Saturday Morning

And Sunday Morning

There are going to be plenty of waves this weekend but you are definitely going to have to stick to the top WNW facing breaks in V-town and San Diego if you are looking for consistently larger surf. Really though I think that we are going to be able to have some fun at most spots, particularly breaks that can pull in the swell combo, which is good for me since I am sort of locked into the local beach breaks for the weekend. I would probably try and hit it in the mornings if you want clean conditions but it should stay fairly surfable through the afternoons as well.

Here are the tides

05:28AM LST 5.3' H
12:13PM LST 0.9' L
05:54PM LST 3.8' H
11:37PM LST 1.2' L

05:59AM LST 5.6' H
12:58PM LST 0.4' L
06:52PM LST 3.7' H

Have a good one...hope you score a few!

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Friday's Surf - Waiting for new WNW swell

Friday will still be on the small side for most areas despite the new WNW swell starting to filter into the Northern Counties later in the day.

For the morning expect a slightly better mix of small SSW swells and a touch of local NW windswell.

Most spots will be in the knee high range...but with a few more waist high waves starting to push through at the better breaks. A few of the standout spots, with more exposure to the WNW will have some waist-waist high+ sets.

Winds look good for the morning, mostly light and variable for most areas to light/moderate offshore near the passes and canyons up around North LA, Ventura, and Santa Barbara.

After lunch start to look for some of that new WNW swell (280-300) starting to creep into SB and Ventura. It won't do much at first but size will start to build as we head towards sundown. There will probably be a few fun sets sneaking in before dark. Other spots further south won't see much increase in size on Friday.

Look for bigger WNW surf on Saturday.

Here are the tides for Friday

04:54AM LST 4.9' High
11:18AM LST 1.5' Low
04:46PM LST 3.9' High
10:58PM LST 0.9' Low

Swell Update: California's Outer Buoys on the rise

I am starting to see the first signs of the new WNW swell (280-300) hitting the buoys this things are lining up nicely for a bump in wave heights as we head into the weekend.

I have been watching the NOAA Buoy #46059, AKA the California Buoy, and it has made a pretty good jump since this morning. Currently it is running about 16.5-feet at about 14-15 seconds.

The California Buoy is a very good indicator for watching incoming WNW-NW swells. It sits about 600 miles WNW of Southern California giving us about a day's lead time on approaching surf. An average 15-17 second period swell travels about 600 miles in a day (give or take...the slower the swell period the slower the waves are going.)

Generally OC and SD will lag a little further behind in swell arrival time since they are buried a little deeper in the SoCal Bight (a little further east than SB, Ventura, and LA) if the swell is set to arrive late in the afternoon, like this one we have arriving this weekend, OC and SD won't see much of an increase in surf size until after dark...with the biggest "rideable" size arriving the next morning even if the swell is actually peaking overnight.

For this swell, if you are checking the Buoy Summary on ( ), you can see the #46059 buoy jump out pretty quickly...this is especially gratifying if you happen to be a surf forecaster waiting for a swell that you forecasted.

Hmm where is that swell?

This buoy summary is a great tool for getting the buoy's "big picture" relatively quickly by allowing you to see most of the Pacific buoys in one place. But it is important to note that this data is generally showing near current you need to establish a timeline when you see the buoys start to pop. (This buoy could have been showing increased sea heights for 12+ hours which means that the swell could be halfway here already not just a day out).

From this summary I usually drill down into the buoy data itself. (I have a whole post on buoy data here if you want to check it out)

All of the buoys show at a minimum 24 hours worth of older data...some of the NOAA buoys go back 5-days.

Just looking at wave heights for the California Buoy helps me to establish my timeline. Check it out.

If it was a smaller swell I might dive deeper and check out swell periods but this swell is pretty noticeable on this chart. So to set my timeline I would say that this swell really started to show on this buoy around 12-zulu on Thursday. (Zulu time is Greenwhich time, which is also called UTC or GMT on some charts. Depending on if we are in daylight savings we are either 7-hours or 8-hours behind Zulu time...right now it is 8-hours).

So this buoy started to see the new WNW swell around 4am PST this morning but didn't start to peak until about 1-2pm PST.

If this were a 17-second period swell I would expect to see building waves at the exposed beaches starting tomorrow morning and then the peak in the afternoon. Since the peak of the swell is actually closer to 13-14 seconds I have to move the peak of the swell back a few hours for SB/Ventura and even further back for Orange County and San Diego.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...snort...ugh, yeah, that is great Adam but what does that mean for the surf?

Basically the swell is in the water, hitting the out buoys, and will be arriving later tomorrow afternoon. I expect Santa Barbara and Ventura to start to see some slowly increasing wave heights starting after lunchtime and increasing as we head toward sundown.

Spots further south down the coast will see wave heights building in after dark.

Eventually the swell will peak overnight but will hold wave heights into Saturday. By then I am expecting most exposed WNW facing spots to have surf in the chest-shoulder high range. Standout WNW facing breaks in Ventura and San Diego will have consistent head high surf. Top breaks, mostly in San Diego, will have some sets going overhead+ on the faces.

Oh and just a random note...if you are looking for consistently larger surf...Northern/Central California are going to get some good sized surf from this swell. Lots of 6-8'+ faces at the average spots and some 10-12'+ sets at the top breaks. It peaks up there on Friday but holds strong into Saturday.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Thursday's Surf - Sleep in

Thursday is looking pretty darn don't expect much surfwise...even for the top spots.

We are going to have basically weak leftovers in the water...a touch of background SW swell and a little bit of WNW energy. Most spots will be in the ankle-knee high range while the standouts see some inconsistent gutless knee-waist high sets.

Check out the CDIP map...I think that my highly trained professional assessment sums up our surf the best.

Winds will be good, but really who cares.

Tomorrow is going to be a paddle around day...don't plan on catching much even at the top spots. I would bring the big boards...something to make the most of the weak energy. I definitely wouldn't drive anywhere if you don't have too.

Here are the tides

04:13AM LST 4.5' High
10:07AM LST 2.2' Low
03:24PM LST 4.1' High
10:11PM LST 0.6' Low

Random Long Range Forecast: Light at the end of the tunnel

The surf has been sucking the last couple of days but it does look like things are going to improve rather quickly as we move into the upcoming weekend.

The North Pacific Storm track has gotten a bit more active over the last week and it looks like it is just going to get more intense as we head toward the weekend and next week.

Right now we have a couple of low-pressures to the N and NE of Hawaii that are going to be sending us some new, playful sized, WNW swell for the weekend and into next Monday. Check out the QUIKscat

The first WNW swell (280-300) arrives later on Friday, showing mostly in Santa Barbara and Ventura late in the afternoon and arriving more after dark. Look for this swell to peak on Saturday and Sunday with surf in the waist-chest high+ range for many areas and some shoulder-head high sets at the standout breaks in Ventura and San Diego. There will also be a touch of increasing SW swell in the water so hopefully we can have some combo fun at the exposed breaks over the weekend.

Further out the models are showing a pretty decent sized low and cold front developing just off the California Coast. It is a waaaays out on the charts at this point so I am not totally sold on how it will pull together. Based on Today's charts we could see a mix of shoulder-head high+ W-WNW swell arriving on Wednesday the 26th and peaking into Thursday/Friday over the thanksgiving holiday. Like I said it is still a ways from forming but it is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Check back I will have more updates as we get closer.

Yeah for waves!

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Wednesday’s Surf – Mostly small with a few sneaky ones here and there

Socal Forecaster’s Blog (11/18/2008) - Wednesday is going to rideable…but sort of on the bubble if I would call it a surf day. Conditions will be nice, there will be a few waves now and then, but nothing to get excited about. I guess it could be a surf day if you don’t mind longer waits and smaller surf.

Wow that was an amazing waffle that I got going there in the first paragraph.

I prefer Belgium myself…

I guess where I was going with that is that there will be surf tomorrow but I am not very excited about it. I am sure what you know what I mean…sitting around waiting for a chest high set can get a bit grating when you have a hunk of work/chores/bong-hits piling up at home.

Anyway enough of my incoherent ramblings…lets get on to the coherent ones.

Surf tomorrow will be a mix of smaller overlapping SSW-SW swells and a touch of leftover WNW energy.

Most spots will be in the knee-waist high range…and inconsistent when the tide is swinging around.

Top combo spots, mostly through Orange County and San Diego will have some waist-chest high sets…with just a touch more consistency down in the SD area.

Winds look light and variable through the morning with some areas of light offshore flow. Look for light to moderate NW winds around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.

Like I said above, I am not very fired up to surf tomorrow…but that doesn’t mean that if you are more open minded than I am you won’t have a bit of fun. Bring your smaller wave gear, longboards or fishies will be the best. It should also be a good day for beginners…small surf, longer waits between sets, sort of gutless at most breaks. Look for the biggest waves at the combo spots…but don’t drive very far unless you have to.

Things look better later this week. When I get a couple of minutes and will put together a better look at the long-range forecast for you guys (Hmmm it might be nice to schedule Thanksgiving up around Santa Barbara this year…I am just saying you might want to think about it).

Here are the tides (for once we don’t have a negative tide)

03:22AM LST 4.1’ High
08:31AM LST 2.8’ Low
01:54PM LST 4.5’ High
09:17PM LST 0.2’ Low

The Surf Gallery: JOHN VAN HAMERSVELD Art Show & Book Signing on Sat. 11/22

Hey gang,

My good friend Will is having another art show this weekend...sounds like there will be a couple of new books, some sick posters, and live music. I know that it is a little early in the season for holiday shopping but if you are looking for something special and like to help out the surfer-labor force this is a good way to do it.

Here are the details...

What: JOHN VAN HAMERSVELD: Exhibition & Book Signing: Come see the new edition of The Endless Summer. There will be signed Posters from $40 and limited-edition fine art prints available too.

What Part II: BOOK SIGNING: Goin' Big - Gotcha and the Evolution of Modern Surf Style. Meet the creators of the book!

Awesome: Live Music by The White Buffalo!

When: Saturday, November 22, 2008 from 4-9 p.m.

Where: The Surf Gallery > 911 S. Coast Hwy. Laguna Beach, CA 92651

Contact: 949-376-9155 or visit

Monday, November 17, 2008

Tuesday's Surf - Still clean but getting smaller

Tuesday will be surfable...but overall the surf will be dropping.

Our mix of WNW swell (280-300) and background SW swell (190-210) will be starting to lose some steam on Tuesday. Most breaks will back down into the waist-chest high range on the bigger sets.

The standout combo breaks, mostly through Orange County and San Diego, will have some chest-shoulder high sets on the lower tides. SD will be quite a bit more consistent than the other areas.

Winds look good too...mostly light offshore through the morning, even moderately offshore for areas near passes and canyons (you know those places that catch on fire and burn like it is going out of style). Afternoon winds are going to be light...slightly onshore but generally below 10 knots.

Now that the tides are starting to even out a touch I wish that we had some more swell to go with the larger surf windows...but as usual it seems like we can barely ever get things to sync up. Which always reminds me of "Friday"

Smokey: "No sugar? Damn. Y'all ain't never got two things that match. Either y'all got Kool-aid, no sugar. Peanut butter, no jelly. Ham, no burger. Daaamn."

Never gets old.

But I digress...anyway it looks like there will be a few playful sets tomorrow if you surf some of the better exposed breaks. It won't be huge, it won't be super consistent, but if you have the right mind and some time to kill it should at least be sort of fun. I wouldn't spend a lot of time driving...if you see a fun wave stop the car and surf.

Here are the tides...try to avoid the peak of the high.

02:17AM LST 3.7' High
06:39AM LST 3.0' Low
12:27PM LST 5.1' High
08:15PM LST -0.1' Low

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Monday’s Surf – Now with extra ash!

Monday is going to be a surf day. We are going to have a fun swell mix and decent conditions. The tides are still going to be an issue but we are starting to see a little bit more of a window on either side of the peak of the high tide.

We are going to have a mix of WNW swell (280-300) and some background SW swell (200-220). Check out the harvest buoy from Sunday night…still plenty of WNW energy showing.

Sizewise we can expect most spots to hold around waist-chest high with some rare shoulder high sets on the lower tides. The standout breaks, mostly in San Diego, will have surf running in the shoulder-head high range on the bigger sets. Again it will be tide sensitive…so the peaking high tide will shut down a lot of spots.

Weather is looking good…the mostly light Santa Ana flow will continue to send in light/moderate offshore winds through the morning and just some light/variable winds through the afternoons. There may be some pockets of texture but we should have a good shot at another afternoon session (got to love fall).

I think that San Diego is going to be your best bet if you are looking for consistency and size…though the South Bay and Ventura should be decent backups as well. If you have time to kill it may be worth driving, nothing super special, but fun and with the weather you can’t go that wrong. Personally, since I am chained to computer (a old Commodore 64 not some fancy laptop), I am going to stick close to home and see if I can pick off a few combo peaks at the local beach breaks.

Here are the tides

01:00AM LST 3.6’ High
05:06AM LST 2.8’ Low
11:15AM LST 5.8’ High
07:10PM LST -0.5’ Low

Friday, November 14, 2008

Waves for the Weekend - Some surf with a cruel tide

Saturday and Sunday will both be surf days. The tide is going to suck at times but if you be a bit flexible there will be some fun surf windows. Watch out for the Swamp Thing!

It won't be huge either day but there will be a fairly consistent mix of overlapping WNW energy (280-300) that starts arriving on Saturday and peaks into Sunday (holding into Monday). At the same time we will have some smaller S-SW swells (190-210) that will continue to push in through the background.

Saturday we can expect most exposed spots to hold in the waist-chest high range with some chest high+ sets on the lower tides. The standout spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with a few bigger waves coming through at the top spots in San Diego.

Sunday the new WNW'er will fill in a bit more. Most exposed WNW spots will move into the chest-shoulder high range...again you will have to work around the tides. The standouts spots will be in the chest-head high range while the top winter spots will have some head high+ sets.

Check out Friday's CDIP...expect this with a little "more" WNW over the weekend.

Weather is looking good through the weekend...even warm once the sun is up. Winds will be light to moderately offshore through the morning and will be light/variable to light offshore for the afternoons. A few areas, particularly around Ventura, North LA, North SD, and Baja Norte (areas with high passes and canyons) will have moderate to strong offshore flow at times.

Here are the tides for Saturday and Sunday

03:10AM LST 2.3' Sort of Normal
09:25AM LST 6.7' Swamp Thing
05:06PM LST -1.2' Where did the water go
11:46PM LST 3.6' Survivable

04:00AM LST 2.5' Sort of Normal
10:16AM LST 6.3' Swamp Thing
06:05PM LST -0.9' Ankle Snapper

Have a great one!

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Waves for Friday - F@#k off tide-swing...we have surfing to do.

Friday will be a surf day...but we are going to have to wiggle around the same giant freaking tide swing that plagued us on Thursday.

Surfwise we are going to have a mix of WNW swell (285-300) and some background (and inconsistent) SW swell (200-220). Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range.

Standout combo spots, mostly through San Diego but in the other well known combo areas as well, will have shoulder high+ sets on the better parts of the tide know after it is swamped out, but before it drains completely out...right there in that 15-minute window. (dammit)

Winds will be good tomorrow...we will have a light Santa Ana flow with light to moderate offshore winds in the morning, strongest near passes and canyons. Variable to slightly onshore winds around 5-10 knots move in through the afternoon.

On Friday, like Thursday, there will be a few fun peaky sets sneaking through the combo beach breaks...the points/reefs will be fun too but again not quite clicking the way they can. Seems like the spots with the right amount of sand are staying more surfable through that tidal swing so you might want to hunt around for breaks with the better sandbars. Looks like midmorning to lunchtime will be the best window. I would start looking for excuses to take an early lunch.

Here are the tides.

02:27AM LST 2.0' Low
08:39AM LST 6.9' High (goodbye Sunset beach)
04:11PM LST -1.2' Low (an 8' tide drop is not a good thing for surfing)

10:40PM LST 3.7' High

One last thing...check out the weird sideways wave model. Looks like we are going to have some fun this weekend.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Thursday's Surf - Combo Fun meal with a side of high-tide weaksauce

Thursday will be a surf day...but we will get mowed by another high tide during the morning. The one that hit today practically turned everything into shorebreak during the dawn patrol. Even spots that can usually handle a higher tide. I expect it to do the same again tomorrow.

Swellwise we are going to have a continuing mix of SW swell (200-220) and some WNW energy (285-300).

Most spots will have surf in waist-chest high+ range while the standout spots, mostly in San Diego and a few of the other good combo swell areas, will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with a few shoulder high+ sets on the lower tides.

Winds look good...mostly light and variable through the morning and then staying on the light side with just a touch of NW flow (around 5-10 knots) for the afternoon.

I think that a midday surf is going to be the best call tomorrow...the tide is going to mush-burger everything out in the morning but shape does improve once it starts to drop. I would probably aim for somewhere in the middle of the tide swing just so you don't get drained out by the negative tide in the afternoon (seriously can we get a break here!). The combo beach breaks will be the best shapewise but the points/reefs should be fun as well.

Here are the tides

01:48AM LST 1.7' Low
07:58AM LST 6.8' High
03:21PM LST -1.2' Low
09:41PM LST 3.9' High


Bonus Forecast! - Some Long Range Notes

Going a little further out in the forecast I noticed a couple of nice things lining up. First off we are going to see a light-moderate Santa Ana flow for Friday and won't be bad windwise but we can expect some offshore flow for most areas, particularly in the mornings, and warmer air temps once the sun gets up.

We are also going to have a new shot of WNW swell (280-300) that moves in on Saturday, starting to peak in the afternoon and then holding strong in Sunday/Monday before fading. Right now this looks good for some consistent shoulder-head high surf at the winter spots (if the tide cooperates) and some overhead sets at the standouts. Check out the 7-day forecast model. This is for San Diego so the arrival time is a little behind what Ventura would see.

Here are the winds for Saturday as well

Also to make things even better it looks like Sunday/Monday we are going to get another little shot of S-SSW swell that could help to break up the WNW'er. Man I love combo swells!

Check back I will have more details as we move into the weekend.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Wednesday's Waves - Damn it is Wednesday already?

Wednesday is going to be a surf day. We have a fun swell combo with a touch more energy arriving throughout the day, conditions will be clean, and if we can get past the morning high tide we should be able to have some fun.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of overlapping WNW-NW swells (285-300 but with most of the energy above 290-degrees) and some new SW swell (200-220).

Most spots will have surf in the waist-chest high+ range. The standout combo spots, again mostly in San Diego, South Orange County, as well as the South Bay and parts of Ventura will have waves in the chest-shoulder high+ range. A few of the top breaks will have bigger sets on the lower tides.

Winds will be good tomorrow...mostly light and variable for most areas and even a few beaches with some light offshore flow early. Look for building NW winds around 10-12 knots by the afternoon.

Like I said things look fun tomorrow...sets may be a bit less consistent compared to the last few days but the swell periods will be longer so hopefully the surf will have a little more punch. I would still plan on finding the best surf at the combo beach breaks...particularly spots that can handle some higher tides. The points and reefs will still be fun but won't connect as well as they can.

Here are the tides

01:12AM LST 1.5' Low
07:21AM LST 6.6' High (weak sauce)
02:35PM LST -1.0' Low
08:47PM LST 4.0' High

Monday, November 10, 2008

Tuesday’s Surf – Taking my sweet time with these forecasts

Tuesday is looking pretty surfy…winds continue to look good and we have a fun combo mix of WNW and SW swell…now we just need a certain surf forecaster to get off his butt and tell us about it.

Swellwise…We have a fading but still healthy push of WNW energy (both short and medium period stuff coming in from 285-300), and some new SW swell (200-220) that is filling in as well. The SW’er doesn’t look great, it had to come in from a shadowed section of the SPAC but it should punt in a few sets to the better exposed combo breaks.

On average we are going to see most of our surf coming from the WNW swell mix. Look for the average spots that can pull in some of WNW’er to have surf in the waist-chest high+ range with some shoulder high sets. Standout WNW facing breaks, mostly through San Diego (but in a few other areas as well) will have some shoulder-head high+ sets through the morning. Combo spots will be similar in size but may be a touch less consistent.

Winds look good for the morning again. We should have light and variable to light offshore flow for most spots. There may be a couple of spots of texture but in general they will be pretty localized. Look for those winds to shift around out of the WNW-NW around 10-12+ knots for the afternoon.

I think there are going to be plenty of waves out there tomorrow. Santa Barbara will probably be a bit smaller than the other regions (look at the CDIP map). So if you usually surf those more exposed areas there will be plenty of places to check…I would probably stick with the breaks that can pull in the WNW energy or at least the better combo spots. Again I think the beach breaks will do better, particularly if there is something like a pier or jetty to break up the swell. Points and reefs will still be fun but may be a bit sectiony off the shorter-period swell.

Tides for Tuesday

12:38AM LST 1.2’ Low
06:48AM LST 6.1’ High
01:51PM LST -0.5’ Low
07:56PM LST 4.1’ High

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Monday’s Surf – 6-foot burrito hangover

Monday looks surfable…I don’t know that I would call it a “Surf Day” but there will be lots of WNW energy out in the water for the exposed breaks and some of the more protected spots will have some cleaner conditions trying to sneak in through the morning.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of WNW-NW energy (both medium and short-period swell from 280-300+) and some background S-SW swell.

Most spots with some exposure to the WNW’ers will have surf in the waist-shoulder high range. The standout WNW facing breaks in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego in particular will have consistent head high and overhead sets with some bigger waves sneaking through.

Winds and conditions are what I like to call fragile…there will be lighter winds in the morning but the general onshore flow will continue in the waters just of the coast. Winds along the beach get a bit fluky and we can see some periods of cleanliness that fall apart pretty quick by midmorning. Afternoon winds will build out of the NW around 10-15+ knots.

Surf Shape, increasing winds, and butt-ass cold water temps are the three biggest issues I have with our surf tomorrow. The windswell, particularly the nasty mess we had on Sunday, doesn’t do a great job generating rideable waves for most spots, there are a few breaks (most beach breaks) that do ok but the points/reefs don’t handle the swell that well. Add in that the wind is likely to get right back on the horse early tomorrow and that the same wind just dropped water temps a trillion degrees with all the upwelling and you have a recipe for being unmotivated…but hey that is just me and I am still a little hungover from my B-day and the total destruction of the 6-foot burrito.

just to give it perspective... that is the bed of a full size toyota tundra

As you can imagine giant burrito = awesome!

Here are the tides

12:05AM LST 1.1’ Low
06:19AM LST 5.7’ High
01:10PM LST 0.2’ Low
07:06PM LST 4.2’ High

Friday, November 7, 2008

Waves for the Weekend - Fun Saturday but Sunday is looking ugly

We are going have some waves this weekend but a new cold front is expected to slip into our region on Sunday and really junk up conditions with onshore winds.

On Saturday we are going to see a mix of playful overlapping S-SW swells (190-205) and some background but slowly building NW windswell. The average spots will see surf in the knee-waist high range while the better S-SW facing breaks see some chest high sets. Standout combo spots, mostly in San Diego, see some chest-shoulder high sets but stay inconsistent throughout the morning.

Conditions on Saturday look decent as well. Mostly light and variable to light offshore winds for most spots through the morning. W winds will increase to about 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

Sunday on the other hand looks like the wheels start to come off. Our swell mix will be building...the S-SW'er will actually stay about the same but we will have a new WNW'er (280-300) and some increasing local NW windswell piling in on top of that. Wave heights will build for most spots...pushing up into the waist-shoulder high range while the top W facing breaks in Ventura, South Bay, and San Diego see some overhead sets.

Unfortunately the winds go sour on us...and the same junk that is building up the WNW energy will move right over our area. Look for W winds around 10-15+ knots through the morning and gusts hitting close to 20-knots for the afternoon. Check out the Sunday morning COAMPS forecast...not pretty

Daddy why is the ocean bleeding?

Since Saturday is the most awesome day in the history of time I will be out looking for a few waves in the morning, probably not too early so that I can avoid the AM chilly, but early enough that I can beat the onshore winds. I am not expecting a ton of surf but it should be playful at least.

Sunday I think our best bet is taking it easy in the morning but keeping an eye on the winds, they might not build in as fast as the models are indicating, possibly opening a surf window in the morning. I wouldn't hold your breath but at least keep in mind there is a chance. (more like one in a million Lloyd...)

Here are the tides...

Saturday (awesome)
05:32AM LST 4.7' High
11:50AM LST 1.7' Low
05:20PM LST 4.0' High
11:33PM LST 1.0' Low

05:54AM LST 5.2' High
12:30PM LST 1.0' Low
06:14PM LST 4.1' High

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Friday's Surf - Clean and Rideable but a little soft

Friday is looking surfable but like the last couple of days it will be on the soft side with the tide in the morning.

We are going to have a mix of mostly S-SW energy (180-205) from a couple of smaller overlapping swells. There will only be some small background swell out of the WNW but overall it will be smaller than what we have seen over the last couple of days.

a little bleak out there right now...

Wave heights will be in the knee-waist high range for spots that can handle the high tide in the morning (the ones that can't are going to be pretty small). The better S facing breaks and decent combo spots will be closer to waist high+ with sets...and the top S facing breaks and top combo spots through OC and San Diego will have a few chest-chest high+ sets. Expect to be waiting a while between the bigger waves though.

Winds are forecast to be similar to Thursday...mostly light to moderately offshore through the morning along with cold crisp morning air temps. NW winds come onshore around 10-14 knots through the afternoon.

Like I said above the conditions, and the fact that it won't be totally flat, keeps it in the surfable range won't be super exciting but it will be better than say being tied to a computer and forced to work on TPS reports or something. I would plan on staying local, pick a spot that can handle the tide, and if you can aim for midmorning so that there will be a little less water and you don't freeze your nads off in the dawn patrol.

Here are the tides

05:14AM LST 4.2' High
11:06AM LST 2.4' Low
04:18PM LST 3.9' High
11:00PM LST 0.9' Low

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Thursdays Surf – Less Poo and less swell

Even though our swell mix is backing down Thursday looks like a surf day. Conditions look good for the morning and there should be enough swell leftover/holding that we can find a couple of sections here and there.

We are going to have a mix of fading WNW windswell and some smaller but holding S-SW overlapping swells (185-205). Check out the Dana Point Buoy from this evening…

Most spots will be a bit soft with the higher tide in the morning…so expect less than great shape in some areas…particularly spots that only pull in the windswell…the combo of short-period energy and a higher AM tide is going to shut down shape. On average we can expect knee-waist high surf for most exposed breaks.

The better S facing spots or the decent combo spots will have waist-chest high sets.

Standout combo breaks in San Diego, particularly the spots that can handle a little higher of a tide, will have waist-shoulder high sets through the morning.

Winds look good…light to moderate offshore NE flow for the morning, generally under 10 knots. W-NW winds build onshore around lunchtime and top out around 10-14 knots by the afternoon.

The surf won’t be firing or anything tomorrow but it should still be playful if you are careful about picking your spots. I probably wouldn’t drive to far to get waves but if you are close to the beach and don’t mind the cleaner but still questionable water quality then you should plan in a quick beach check.

Here are the tides

05:00AM LST 3.9’ High
10:09AM LST 3.1’ Low
03:01PM LST 3.9’ High
10:23PM LST 0.8’ Low

PS – A note on TS Polo (Marco!)…it died out pretty fast. No swell expected from him.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Wednesday's Surf - And the winner is...

Yeah Right :) (this is the last place you should be getting your election coverage.)

Wednesday is going to be a surf day...conditions will be cleaner and there will be a fun swell mix in the water...about the only thing that is still an issue is the water quality. The water was looking an awful poo brown today (not the most scientific method)...and it usually takes 2-3 days for the bacteria to back off. You can always check out the Heal The Bay website for some of the beach grades.

Surfwise we are going to have a mix of slowly fading steeper WNW windswell (285-300) and some playful sized SSW swell (190-205) that is holding under the more dominant WNW energy. Here is the CDIP for this afternoon...expect a little less WNW energy and a little more SSW tomorrow.

Wave heights for most areas will be in the waist-chest high range...Santa Barbara will be a touch smaller as the WNW energy gradually turns more NW. The better combo spots will be in the waist-shoulder high range.

Standout W-facing beaches and top combo spots in San Diego will have some shoulder-head high faces...probably even some bigger sets at the best breaks in the morning.

Winds are looking better for Wednesday...mostly light and variable to light/moderate offshore near passes and canyons in the northern counties. Check out the NWS map for Wednesday morning.

Afternoon winds pick up out of the NW around 10-12 knots.

While I am still not all that stoked on the water quality I think that there will be some fun waves tomorrow. I might wrap myself in some sort of saran-wrap and a bondage mask and see if I can catch a few...but I am still going to avoid the storm-drains and river-mouths if I can. If you are looking for bigger waves Ventura, The South Bay will be decent calls...San Diego is going to be by far the biggest surfwise since it is more exposed to the WNW-NW energy. It probably won't be worth driving down there but if you are in the area I would at least plan a camera check in the morning.

Here are the tides (LST stands for Local Standard Time in case you were wondering)

04:52AM LST 3.6' High
08:16AM LST 3.5' Low
01:22PM LST 4.0' High
09:37PM LST 0.8' Low

Monday, November 3, 2008

Tuesday's Surf - Looking a bit windy

Tuesday is forecast to be stormy, and not much of a surf day...that being said the last couple of fronts that have pushed through haven't really shut down the surf as bad as they could have. Check out the storm front on the satellite.

I would probably plan on wind (and maybe a little rain) but like a Boy Scout be prepared for some surf windows to possibly open up, particularly at the more protected breaks. Don't hold your breath or anything...just keep an eye on a few of the spots that stay surfable with westerly winds.

Surfwise we are going to have a mix of fading WNW swell, increasing NW windswell, and some weak S-SW swell (190-205) holding in the background.

Average spots will be in the waist-chest high+ range while the standout W facing breaks and top combo spots, mostly in San Diego, see some shoulder-head high sets.

Conditions are what is going to hold us back. Current forecast models are calling for W-NW winds around 10-15 knots for the morning with some stronger gusts the closer you get to Point Conception. Afternoon winds will be similar but start to mellow after sunset.

Again I wouldn't plan on a ton of surfing tomorrow...I definitely wouldn't commit a lot of time checking it, or driving anywhere. But if you are close enough for a strategic session you will want to keep an eye on conditions. Personally I am going to spend a few minutes looking out the window and if I see the trees or flags are moving or have slacked up a bit, then do a cam check in hopes that the wind has held off. If you do manage a surf or don't mind the bump...look for the biggest waves through San Diego, with some decent size still showing in the South Bay and Southern Ventura, other spots will be smaller and less consistent.

Here are the tides

11:47AM 4.4' High
08:39PM 0.8' Low

Tropical Update WTF? - Tropical Storm Polo (Marco!)

So I was sort of getting my hopes up that we would skate out of the tropical season without getting another storm...don't get me wrong I like hurricane swells but I hate forecasting those bastards. They are just too temperamental...give me a nice predictable frontal storm any day. As usual Mother Nature could care less what makes my life easier and spun up a new little tropical storm, just a month before the "official" end of the hurricane season.

Anyway TS Polo (Marco!) formed up over the weekend and is now spinning around 650-miles South of Cabo San Lucas.

Current forecasts are showing Polo (Marco! Seriously I can't stop it) tracking westward around 15-knots. The storm is supposed to intensify and develop a better WNW storm track in the next 24-36 hours. Check out the NRL forecast...

Personally I am not super stoked on this storm fact the forecast has already downgraded itself from Monday morning's forecast, which is never a good sign.

Still if the storm does intensify and manages to change its direction we may see some waves later this week.

I'll keep you posted if it starts to line up.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Monday’s Surf – A chance to get some W swell

Monday isn’t going to be much of a surf day but there may be a surf window setting up for the morning.

Our W-WNW swell (280-300+) moved into exposed areas on Sunday…I got reports that Santa Barbara was pretty fun and I saw some good looking sets rolling into Ventura. The winds didn’t hold but it is nice to see some swell in those areas.

The W swell will continue to hold as we move into Monday (it should actually be peaking in OC and SD in the morning but the swell angle is starting to shift a little NW slow look for fewer spots to be exposed to the bigger surf). There will be some background SW swell (190-210) slowly fading out as well. Check out the CDIP model from this afternoon.

I still expect surf in the waist-shoulder high range for most W facing beaches on Monday. The better exposed areas will have some head high sets…and the top spots, mostly in San Diego, the South Bay, and Ventura, will have some overhead sets.

The winds look like they are going to be a bitch in the afternoon…but we may have a small window of semi-clean conditions through the morning, particularly at the spots that have a little protection from W-NW breezes. Look for winds to start below 10 knots out of the W in the morning…then increase for all areas…eventually topping out 13-15+ knots out of the WNW by the afternoon. Here is a shot of the COAMPS forecast for the morning.

With the rain that came through on Sunday I am not really stoked on the water quality. I haven’t looked at rainfall totals but it seemed like there was enough to get the storm drains flowing in a few spots. The first rains of the year are always the nastiest…it seems like you get all the crap, trash, shopping carts, dead bodies, ect ect pushing out during the first rain. Usually the health department recommends waiting at least 72 hours after a significant rain.

Anyway…if you have to surf I would try and check the W facing spots but areas that offer a little protection from the wind. I would also try and get on it early before the tide fills in and the winds come onshore. If you are west swell junky then it might be worth a dawn patrol but personally I am going to wait for enough light for a cam check before I commit to driving down to look at it in person.

Here are the tides for Monday…

10:47AM 4.7’ High
07:30PM 0.8’ Low