Waves for the weekend – Playful and a touch cleaner

Hey gang....I am going to be away from the computer for a few days (non surf related) so this forecast is going out a bit early. The forecast will be back to its regularly scheduled randomness on Monday. Here are the nuts and bolts for the next few days.

Saturday

Saturday is looking like a surf day...nothing stellar...but cleaner than what we had at the end of the week.

We are going to see a mix of holding SW swell (200-220), steady WNW windswell, and peaking SE swell (160-175+180) from Tropical Storm Dolores.

Average spots will be waist-chest high with some plus sets at the better combo spots and SE facing breaks. Top spots, particularly the good combo breaks, and the best SE facing spots, will be around chest-shoulder high...maybe even a couple of bigger waves on the lower tides. Looks like the biggest surf will be in the summer San Diego areas, Orange County summer standouts, and the better spots in North LA. (sort of what you should expect from SE-SW swells).



Winds will be cleaner in the morning...more light and variable conditions early but with a few pockets of bump here and there at the more exposed beaches. WNW winds around 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon.

Saturday Tides
01:33AM LDT -0.2 L
08:08AM LDT 3.2 H
12:02PM LDT 2.5 L
06:32PM LDT 6.1 H

Sunday and Monday

The mix of SW and WNW swell backs down slowly while the tropical SE swell drops out pretty fast.

Wave heights will continue in the waist-chest high range for many of the average spots...less consistent than Saturday. Top spots still see some chest-shoulder high sets but again the bigger sets will be less consistent. Expect smaller and less consistent surf on Monday.



Winds look clean in the morning on both days...light and variable with a hint of onshore flow through the early morning. WNW winds build in through midday and peak around 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

Here are the tides for Sunday/Monday

Sunday Tides
02:19AM LDT -0.8 L
08:50AM LDT 3.5 H
01:08PM LDT 2.3 L
07:26PM LDT 6.5 H

Monday Tides
03:03AM LDT -1.2 L
09:28AM LDT 3.7 H
02:05PM LDT 2.1 L
08:16PM LDT 6.9 H

Have a great weekend everyone!

Surf for Friday – building but with more wind

Friday with have waves but conditions will keep it from being much of a surf day.

Wave heights continue to build on Friday but increasing onshore winds will hamper shape from early-midmorning on.

Swellwise we are going to see a small, peaking SW swell (200-220), building WNW windswell, and building SE swell from Tropical Storm Dolores.


Wave heights are going to be in the waist-chest high range at most exposed spots on Friday. The combo beaches are going to see the most consistency early in the day but the S-SE facing spots will see consistency build through the afternoon as the tropical swell fills in.

The standout S, SW, and top combo spots will be around chest high on the average sets...but will have some shoulder high+ waves coming through by the end of the day (though it will be hard to find a spot clean enough to really surf by then as well).





Winds are going to be problematic again...this variable onshore flow that we have seen the last couple of days will actually strengthen more on Friday. I still expect some semi-clean conditions around sun-up, with building onshore flow by midmorning and continuing through the afternoon. Look for variable-W winds around 4-5 knots through the morning. WNW winds 10-15 knots will push through by the afternoon.

It will be Friday, it will be sunny/warm weatherwise, and there is a little building swell in the water...even though shape won’t be that great it will at least be worth giving it a look if you live close by. I wouldn’t drive very far for the surf... unless you are planning on just hanging out near the beach all day anyways. This onshore bump is getting sort of ridiculous...I am getting ready to sell my kidney for some slightly offshore winds for 18 hours.

Here are the tides...

12:40AM LDT 0.6 L
07:08AM LDT 2.8 H
10:44AM LDT 2.4 L
05:36PM LDT 5.7 H

Thursday’s Surf – A little bigger but still fugly

So the surf will come up slowly throughout the day on Thursday...but local winds and the tides will conspire against us having a surf day.

Our swell will be a mix of slowly building and overlapping SW swells (200-220) and increasing local WNW windswell.



Wave heights are going to be in the waist high range at most of the average spots. The better S-SW facing spots will be more in the waist-chest high range on inconsistent sets. The standout SW facing spots and the best combo breaks will have some inconsistent shoulder high sets. It is going to be fairly inconsistent tomorrow...so expect some longer waits between waves.



The wind looks like it is going to mess with us tomorrow. Forecast models are calling for mostly light winds in the morning...but with a steady westerly onshore tint to them. Likely we are going to have light/variable winds along the coast but with that fugly sickness/bump to the ocean thanks to the stronger winds further off the coast. The real onshores will pick up early and should come in out of the W-WNW around 10-12 knots by the afternoon.

Overall I am not expecting much out of the surf tomorrow...yeah it will be bigger, particularly at the SW facing spots by the afternoon, but the winds and tides are going to jack up most of our shape/conditions. Your best bet, if you have to surf, would be to get on it early and try to capitalize on the lower tides (the tide doesn’t get very low on Thursday though) and lighter morning winds...the swell won’t be doing all the well in the morning but it should be better than the shapeless high-tide crumblers that will be on tap for the afternoon.

Here are the tides...

05:22AM LDT 2.6 H
09:26AM LDT 2.2 L
04:38PM LDT 5.2 H

Tropical Update: TS Dolores

We have another new tropical storm...TD 5E formed up late last night, and by midmorning here on Wednesday it had become Tropical Storm Dolores.



Currently TS Dolores is holding approximately 1200 miles SE of Southern California and about 700 miles SSW of the tip of Baja. She is moving WNW (310) around 10-11 knots and is expected to intensify into a strong Tropical Storm over the next 24 hours. Long-range forecasts are showing TS Dolores hitting colder water (and some wind shear) after that 24 hours...but conditions are shifting that may allow her to stay more intense for a longer-period, which would be much better for us wavewise.



At this point TS Dolores is already in SoCal’s SE swell window...and is doing a few “good-things” that help swell production.

1. She is intensifying...(you always want the storm to get stronger or at minimum, hold strength)

2. She is a decent sized storm with almost 200 miles of 34+ knot winds in the NE and SE side of the system (the side that produces swell for us.)

3. She is moving roughly NW-WNW at a moderate pace. (The closer she can get to moving directly at us the more energy she will send out.)

4. Finally she isn’t too far...1200 miles is a reasonable distance...not great...but not as bad as it could be.



I do wish the storm was a bit stronger...and moving a bit more to the NW...but as it is I am still expecting some swell from Dolores.

Baja Sur will get waves from this Tropical Storm...I expect some S-SSW swell (180-190) to start showing at the exposed Pacific Side spots around the 16-17th with wave heights in the chest-shoulder high range for many spots and some bigger sets at the standouts.

SoCal will see this swell start to show through the day on the 17th strengthening towards the evening. Based on today’s forecasts the peak of the swell will be through the 18-19th. The swell will be more SE-S (165-180) for our region...so expect some shadowing at the start. Wave heights are going to be in the waist-chest high range at the average spots. Standout SE-S facing areas will be more consistently in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger sets.

Naturally we could see some bigger waves for all areas if TS Dolores intensifies past the current forecasts.

Waves for Wednesday – A few gutless small ones

Wednesday is not looking like a surf day.

It will be rideable, with maybe a couple of “ok” pockets but the lack of swell and increasing winds will hamper shape in the morning and the building tide and gusty afternoon winds will kill in by the end of the day.

Swellwise we will have a mix of new energy out there...some new SW swell (200-220), some weak tropical S swell from Carlos (who just won’t die on his way to Hawaii), and some building local NW windswell.



Despite the mix of swells there just isn’t a ton of energy in the water and that is going to translate to small surf. On average the sort-of exposed spots will be around knee high with some inconsistent waist high sets. The better breaks will be more consistently around waist high. The standout breaks will be waist-chest high on the better tides.

The winds look a little sloppy tomorrow...both the COAMPS and the NWS models are calling some building W winds in the morning. I think it may start clean around sun-up but the texture should start building by mid-morning. Expect W winds around 5-8 knots by midmorning and more bump in the 10-15 knot range by the afternoon.

Overall I am expecting more of the gutless waves we have been riding for the last couple of days...sort of workable if the tide is low, or if you have the right gear, but frustrating at times due to the lack of push. Look for the biggest surf through the best exposed areas of San Diego and Orange County but don’t drive very far for the gutlessness...you might as well save your gas money for some better waves.

Here are the tides...

03:05AM LDT 2.8 H
08:31AM LDT 1.8 L
03:41PM LDT 4.8 H
11:32PM LDT 1.2 L

Tuesday’s Surf – midweek mushburgers

Tuesday will be surfable but not really a surf day.

Like the last couple of days the surf will be on the small/playful side but the hot weather and the warmer water temps will be good arguments for getting in the water anyways.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of mostly WNW windswell, some leftover S-SW energy, a new but inconsistent SW swell (200-220), and a touch of tropical energy from Carlos. It sounds like a lot going on but in reality it is sort of soft mix of weak swells that won’t add up to much. The CDIP paints a pretty good picture of what we are going to see tomorrow.



Wave heights are going to average around knee-waist high and be semi-soft, mushy, windswell peaks at most areas. A few of the better S-SW facing spots, mostly in Orange County and parts of San Diego, will get some of the increasing S-SW swells and will be more consistently in the waist-chest high range. The top spots will have some inconsistent shoulder high sets.

Winds look ok tomorrow as well. It will be light and variable through the morning with a few pockets of light onshore texture for the OC/SD areas. WNW winds 10-14 knots fill in through the afternoon. Weather will continue to be warm with clear skies for most of the day.



I think that the best call will be the combo beach breaks tomorrow...there isn’t much energy behind these swells but if you luck into a decent sandbar you might get a couple of faster sections. I would probably stick with the smaller/slower wave gear to get more out of the swell. Also water temps are pretty nice right now...at least through the OC/SD areas...I trunked it for a few mid-morning waves at the local beach break. You might still want at least a jacket...probably more if you are further north.

Here are the tides...

01:30AM LDT 3.4 H
07:54AM LDT 1.3 L
02:51PM LDT 4.5 H
10:01PM LDT 1.8 L

Surf for Monday – Small Combo Mix

Monday is looking rideable…but it will be a touch smaller than Sunday.

We are going to have a mix of fading S-SW energy and some slightly bigger local NW windswell. Overall it won’t be the most energetic mix of swells but if you can find a combo spot, and hit it on a lower tide, you should be able to find a couple of fun sections.

Sizewise we are looking at mostly waist high surf at the average spots. The better S-facing breaks and combo spots will be around waist-chest high. Standout combo spots, mostly through parts of OC and Northern SD, will have some inconsistent shoulder high sets on the low tides.

Winds look pretty good in the morning…light and variable with even a few pockets of glassiness at the well protected spots. Look for WNW winds 10-14 knots to fill in through the afternoon. It will still be pretty warm tomorrow too…so expect beach weather along the coast.



I wish there was a little more swell in the water tomorrow…but in general it looks like a small/playful surf day with what we have coming through. The winds will be decent, the water is warming up, and it won’t be totally flat. If you don’t have to work on Monday it sounds like a good reason to get in the water.

Quick note on Hurricane Carlos…looks like he is having some issues…the National Hurricane Center downgraded him back to Tropical Storm strength this afternoon. A couple of the forecast models are showing him strengthening back to Hurricane strength while a couple more are saying that he might not intensify at all. At this point I am looking for some minor/moderate tropical S swell from Carlos with wave heights right around waist-chest high, filtering into exposed spots late Tuesday through Thursday. Nothing to get excited about at this point…but better than nothing.

Here are the tides for Monday…

12:32AM LDT 3.9 H
07:24AM LDT 0.9 L
02:08PM LDT 4.3 H
08:28PM LDT 2.2 L