Friday will be a surf day...but you are going to need to plan around the rest of the shenanigans that generally occur on the 4th of July.
We will have a mix of SW swell, background tropical energy, and a touch of local windswell.
Average spots will be in the waist to occasionally chest high range while the standout S facing spots see some chest-shoulder high sets on the morning tide push.
Winds are expected to be light and variable through the morning then come onshore around 10+ knots during the afternoon.
Really your best bet...at least in my opinion, the way to have the most fun...is to stick to your local break, surf what you have at your spot, and enjoy the beach. The surf isn't good enough to warrant hunting through a ton of spots to find the perfect wave. Layer on the fact that traffic and parking are probably going to suck, and that many areas will have restricted access and it makes even more sense to get up early, head to a close-by beach and ride a few before the zoo descends. Personally I am going to try and surf during the dawn patrol...then it will be off to the slip-n-slide by the time the crazy makes it to the beach.
Have a great holiday everyone...I will have an update for the weekend tomorrow!
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Surf on Thursday - Whose leftovers are those?
Thursday is looking like a semi-surf day...nothing great but if you are already on vacation it should be worth paddling out.
We will have a mix of SW swell, leftover tropical swell, and some local WNW windswell. Most spots will continue to hold in the waist-chest high range. Standout S facing spots and good combo breaks will have some chest-shoulder high sets. Like I said nothing to get excited about but rideable.
Winds are looking similar to Wednesday but I think they will be a bit lighter in the morning than we have seen over the last couple of days. Expect light and variable winds for most spots in the morning with a couple of patches of light WNW flow around Santa Barbara and Ventura. OC and San Diego should be fairly clean but there may be some slight SW flow for the more exposed areas. All spots will see increasing W winds around 10-12+ knots during the afternoon.
Expect more of the semi-peaky, semi-mushy, shape that has been sort of plaguing our beaches lately. Most of our swell is medium-short period so there just isn’t a ton of push behind it...I think your best bet is to check the spots that traditionally like windswell and have some halfway decent sandbars. I think the combination of the two should give it a little more speed and punch. It looks like the biggest waves will be showing through Orange County and the San Diego combo spots...but I wouldn't plan on driving very far to surf either of these areas. Also we have a long holiday weekend lining up, the crowds at the beach are going to be heavy, I would plan on the crowd starting to build tomorrow no matter what the surf looks like.
We will have a mix of SW swell, leftover tropical swell, and some local WNW windswell. Most spots will continue to hold in the waist-chest high range. Standout S facing spots and good combo breaks will have some chest-shoulder high sets. Like I said nothing to get excited about but rideable.
Winds are looking similar to Wednesday but I think they will be a bit lighter in the morning than we have seen over the last couple of days. Expect light and variable winds for most spots in the morning with a couple of patches of light WNW flow around Santa Barbara and Ventura. OC and San Diego should be fairly clean but there may be some slight SW flow for the more exposed areas. All spots will see increasing W winds around 10-12+ knots during the afternoon.
Expect more of the semi-peaky, semi-mushy, shape that has been sort of plaguing our beaches lately. Most of our swell is medium-short period so there just isn’t a ton of push behind it...I think your best bet is to check the spots that traditionally like windswell and have some halfway decent sandbars. I think the combination of the two should give it a little more speed and punch. It looks like the biggest waves will be showing through Orange County and the San Diego combo spots...but I wouldn't plan on driving very far to surf either of these areas. Also we have a long holiday weekend lining up, the crowds at the beach are going to be heavy, I would plan on the crowd starting to build tomorrow no matter what the surf looks like.
Tropical Storm Douglas - setting up some waves for the Tip of Baja
Well we went from almost from 0-to-60 in the tropics over the last few days. We have had 3 named storms develop since June 27th and now the National Hurricane Center is forecasting another named system to develop in the next day or so.
Currently one of the three named storms is the former TD-4E which strengthened into Tropical Storm Douglas earlier this morning.
Check out the latest forecast run for TS Douglas
Waves for SoCal (yeah not so much)
As you can see from the red line TS Douglas is still out of the Southern California swell window but he is inching closer as he tracks to the NW at 8 knots. At this pace it looks like the surf-generating parts of the storm (the NE and SE) won't actually move into the swell window until some time later on Friday...unfortunately it doesn't look like Douglas is going to get much stronger so I don't think he will be much of a wave maker for SoCal...some small waves...but nothing to get real fired up about. If anything shows it won't be until we move into the weekend...likely later on Saturday and into Sunday.
Waves for Baja Sur
Baja Sur, in particular the Tip, is looking much better in terms of getting surf from TS Douglas. He is positioned only a few hundred miles from Cabo and while he doesn't have great overall wind speeds he is well-positioned and moving the right direction which really help generate swell. At this point it looks like the expose areas around the Tip and the East Cape will start to see new tropical S swell move in on Thursday afternoon and then peak into Friday. I expect wave heights to hold in the shoulder-head high range at the better exposed S facing breaks. Remember those sizes are at the Tip...wave height and set consistency will drop off the further north you move up the Pacific Side.
Waves for NorCal
We have a tropical region?
Currently one of the three named storms is the former TD-4E which strengthened into Tropical Storm Douglas earlier this morning.
Check out the latest forecast run for TS Douglas
Waves for SoCal (yeah not so much)
As you can see from the red line TS Douglas is still out of the Southern California swell window but he is inching closer as he tracks to the NW at 8 knots. At this pace it looks like the surf-generating parts of the storm (the NE and SE) won't actually move into the swell window until some time later on Friday...unfortunately it doesn't look like Douglas is going to get much stronger so I don't think he will be much of a wave maker for SoCal...some small waves...but nothing to get real fired up about. If anything shows it won't be until we move into the weekend...likely later on Saturday and into Sunday.
Waves for Baja Sur
Baja Sur, in particular the Tip, is looking much better in terms of getting surf from TS Douglas. He is positioned only a few hundred miles from Cabo and while he doesn't have great overall wind speeds he is well-positioned and moving the right direction which really help generate swell. At this point it looks like the expose areas around the Tip and the East Cape will start to see new tropical S swell move in on Thursday afternoon and then peak into Friday. I expect wave heights to hold in the shoulder-head high range at the better exposed S facing breaks. Remember those sizes are at the Tip...wave height and set consistency will drop off the further north you move up the Pacific Side.
Waves for NorCal
We have a tropical region?
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Wednesday’ Surf – Sort of a mixed bag
Wednesday is sort of looking surfable but a lot is going to depend on how the wind treats us tonight and tomorrow morning.
Swellwise we are going to continue to see a mix of SW swell, slowly dropping tropical S-SW swell from Boris, and local WNW windswell. Most exposed spots will see surf in the waist-shoulder high range while the standout S facing breaks in OC and North San Diego will have some head high sets.
Winds will continue to be the biggest issue…as of 9pm this evening (yeah this post is pretty late) there is still a pretty big variation in the local weather forecast models. It looks like there is about a 50/50 shot of either seeing an eddy develop or a continuation of the onshore winds we saw the last couple of days. Right now it looks like we may see a mix of WSW-W winds generally below 10 knots in the morning…this won’t last long though…expect building onshore W winds 10-15 knots by the afternoon. SD and OC may be a touch lighter than that in the afternoon but overall I don’t think it will make much a difference in shape.
Again I don’t think it is going to be all that fun tomorrow…there is just a bit too much bump from the wind expected to be roaming around in the water tomorrow morning so even if the winds are light it is still going to have a funk to it. If you can I would try and surf spots that are exclusively S facing (so they don’t pull in any other swells)…or try and hit breaks that really like windswells and are fun when they are crossed up and mixed up. I wouldn’t definitely try and hit the cameras in the morning as well…it would be a shame to waste gas and money heading down to the beach if the wind gets an early jump on it.
Random note on updates: if you have been checking the Baja and Norcal pages for updates I have been lagging the last few days…things should return to normal as we head into the weekend.
Swellwise we are going to continue to see a mix of SW swell, slowly dropping tropical S-SW swell from Boris, and local WNW windswell. Most exposed spots will see surf in the waist-shoulder high range while the standout S facing breaks in OC and North San Diego will have some head high sets.
Winds will continue to be the biggest issue…as of 9pm this evening (yeah this post is pretty late) there is still a pretty big variation in the local weather forecast models. It looks like there is about a 50/50 shot of either seeing an eddy develop or a continuation of the onshore winds we saw the last couple of days. Right now it looks like we may see a mix of WSW-W winds generally below 10 knots in the morning…this won’t last long though…expect building onshore W winds 10-15 knots by the afternoon. SD and OC may be a touch lighter than that in the afternoon but overall I don’t think it will make much a difference in shape.
Again I don’t think it is going to be all that fun tomorrow…there is just a bit too much bump from the wind expected to be roaming around in the water tomorrow morning so even if the winds are light it is still going to have a funk to it. If you can I would try and surf spots that are exclusively S facing (so they don’t pull in any other swells)…or try and hit breaks that really like windswells and are fun when they are crossed up and mixed up. I wouldn’t definitely try and hit the cameras in the morning as well…it would be a shame to waste gas and money heading down to the beach if the wind gets an early jump on it.
Random note on updates: if you have been checking the Baja and Norcal pages for updates I have been lagging the last few days…things should return to normal as we head into the weekend.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Tuesday’s Surf – Looks pretty sloppy
Tuesday is not looking like much of a surf day…we will have plenty of swell but conditions are going to continue the funky trend we saw on Monday.
Swellwise we are going to have a mix of fading SW swell, local NW windswell, and some tropical S-SE swell from the combination of TS Boris and to a lesser degree TS Cristina.
Expect the average S facing spots and combo spots to have surf in the chest-shoulder high range. Standout S facing breaks, like North Orange County, and good combo spots will have more consistently chest-head high surf with a few select spots seeing some bigger waves.
Unfortunately shape is going to look pretty poor…winds are expected to stay onshore most of the night and then pick up again early tomorrow morning. There may not be a ton of wind for the dawn patrol but the leftover bump will still be tweaking things pretty hard so shape isn’t going to get a chance to recover all that much. Look for W winds 10-15 knots to get on it by midmorning and then top out at nearly 20-knots by late in the afternoon.
This is what the COAMP wind analysis looks like from Monday…Tuesday is going to be pretty similar, which if you don’t mind the pun…really f-ing blows.
Because there is going to be some size tomorrow I would at least get up and do a camera check in the morning (or if you live close enough make a quick drive-by)…we might get lucky with a smaller semi-surfable window in the morning…I am not holding my breath but there is always a chance. It doesn’t look like this wind pattern is going to change a whole bunch over the next couple of days so we are going to have to scrape out our surf sessions when we can.
Swellwise we are going to have a mix of fading SW swell, local NW windswell, and some tropical S-SE swell from the combination of TS Boris and to a lesser degree TS Cristina.
Expect the average S facing spots and combo spots to have surf in the chest-shoulder high range. Standout S facing breaks, like North Orange County, and good combo spots will have more consistently chest-head high surf with a few select spots seeing some bigger waves.
Unfortunately shape is going to look pretty poor…winds are expected to stay onshore most of the night and then pick up again early tomorrow morning. There may not be a ton of wind for the dawn patrol but the leftover bump will still be tweaking things pretty hard so shape isn’t going to get a chance to recover all that much. Look for W winds 10-15 knots to get on it by midmorning and then top out at nearly 20-knots by late in the afternoon.
This is what the COAMP wind analysis looks like from Monday…Tuesday is going to be pretty similar, which if you don’t mind the pun…really f-ing blows.
Because there is going to be some size tomorrow I would at least get up and do a camera check in the morning (or if you live close enough make a quick drive-by)…we might get lucky with a smaller semi-surfable window in the morning…I am not holding my breath but there is always a chance. It doesn’t look like this wind pattern is going to change a whole bunch over the next couple of days so we are going to have to scrape out our surf sessions when we can.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Weekend Surf – more SW swell (and maybe a little tropical energy)
Looks like we should have a decent surf weekend.
Our SW swell will fill in more overnight and peak into Saturday before slowly fading out on Sunday. Local NW windswell will hold in the background for most of the weekend as well.
Most spots with SW exposure will continue to see waist-chest high surf while the standout South OC and North San Diego SW facing surf spots see shoulder-head high+ sets. It will be a bit inconsistent on the bigger sets but we should have some playful sizes as we move through the tide push.
Sunday will be a touch smaller with more waist than chest high surf at the average spots and smaller sets (mostly shoulder high) at the top SW facing spots.
Winds look ok…well at least the eddy is supposed to back off over the weekend. Generally expect light/variable winds on Saturday morning and touch more variable onshore texture on Sunday. Both afternoons will have onshore winds around 10-15+ knots so try and surf early rather than later if you can.
Now about the tropical swell…there are 2 tropical systems spinning in the SoCal swell window…the better looking one is TS Boris whose storm core has just barely moved into the extreme SE portion of our swell window. TD-3E is the other system it is about 1200 miles due south of us…and while it doesn’t have the wind speeds Boris does it is showing some spin on the satellite loop which means that there is a chance at getting some minor swell from it.
At this point I wouldn’t expect much, if any energy to really show over the weekend, if some does it will be very short-period S swell from TS-3E, which would arrive later on Sunday. Overall it won’t add any size but it may help to increase the consistency of our surf.
Boris on the other hand is moving into our window and is expected to strengthen as he does. His storm track (WNW at 8-knots) isn’t the greatest but he is showing good rotation and some halfway decent wind speeds. Right now I am expecting to see at least a waist-chest high SE swell from Boris that starts to fill in on Monday and will eventually peak Monday night into Tuesday of next week. A lot depends on how he actually behaves over the next 24-30 hours or so…but like I said at this point I am expecting surf from him.
Here check out some of the charts on Boris...
Our SW swell will fill in more overnight and peak into Saturday before slowly fading out on Sunday. Local NW windswell will hold in the background for most of the weekend as well.
Most spots with SW exposure will continue to see waist-chest high surf while the standout South OC and North San Diego SW facing surf spots see shoulder-head high+ sets. It will be a bit inconsistent on the bigger sets but we should have some playful sizes as we move through the tide push.
Sunday will be a touch smaller with more waist than chest high surf at the average spots and smaller sets (mostly shoulder high) at the top SW facing spots.
Winds look ok…well at least the eddy is supposed to back off over the weekend. Generally expect light/variable winds on Saturday morning and touch more variable onshore texture on Sunday. Both afternoons will have onshore winds around 10-15+ knots so try and surf early rather than later if you can.
Now about the tropical swell…there are 2 tropical systems spinning in the SoCal swell window…the better looking one is TS Boris whose storm core has just barely moved into the extreme SE portion of our swell window. TD-3E is the other system it is about 1200 miles due south of us…and while it doesn’t have the wind speeds Boris does it is showing some spin on the satellite loop which means that there is a chance at getting some minor swell from it.
At this point I wouldn’t expect much, if any energy to really show over the weekend, if some does it will be very short-period S swell from TS-3E, which would arrive later on Sunday. Overall it won’t add any size but it may help to increase the consistency of our surf.
Boris on the other hand is moving into our window and is expected to strengthen as he does. His storm track (WNW at 8-knots) isn’t the greatest but he is showing good rotation and some halfway decent wind speeds. Right now I am expecting to see at least a waist-chest high SE swell from Boris that starts to fill in on Monday and will eventually peak Monday night into Tuesday of next week. A lot depends on how he actually behaves over the next 24-30 hours or so…but like I said at this point I am expecting surf from him.
Here check out some of the charts on Boris...
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Friday’s Surf – Looks pretty fun
Friday is going to be a surf day.
We are going to have a mix of fading SW energy, new long-period SW swell, and some local windswell…all of which will team up with cleaner conditions (especially compared to what we have seen over the last couple of mornings).
Sizewise look for a lot of spots to hold in the waist-chest high range…the better combo breaks will have some chest high+ sets particularly as the new long-period SW’er starts to arrive. (really this new swell looks better for Saturday but the leftover SW energy should help to fill in the gaps).
Standout SW facing breaks in Northern San Diego and South Orange County will have surf in the waist-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head high (maybe even bigger) sets coming through on the tide push.
Winds are forecast to be light and variable in the morning…maybe even light offshore for some of LA and Ventura areas. Look for onshore winds out of the W around the usual 10-12+ knots during the afternoon.
I think Friday should be pretty fun at almost all of the combo spots in SoCal (just make sure they have good SW exposure). It won’t be huge or anything but the mix of swells, the cleaner conditions, and the fact that the water is warming back up make for a pretty good argument for surfboard riding. If you are looking for bigger and more consistent surf I would head to SD and South OC…they will be the most exposed to the swell mix. Other areas will be smaller but will still be rideable so don’t worry if you can’t afford the $8.50 per gallon that we are going to see at the pumps tomorrow.
We are going to have a mix of fading SW energy, new long-period SW swell, and some local windswell…all of which will team up with cleaner conditions (especially compared to what we have seen over the last couple of mornings).
Sizewise look for a lot of spots to hold in the waist-chest high range…the better combo breaks will have some chest high+ sets particularly as the new long-period SW’er starts to arrive. (really this new swell looks better for Saturday but the leftover SW energy should help to fill in the gaps).
Standout SW facing breaks in Northern San Diego and South Orange County will have surf in the waist-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head high (maybe even bigger) sets coming through on the tide push.
Winds are forecast to be light and variable in the morning…maybe even light offshore for some of LA and Ventura areas. Look for onshore winds out of the W around the usual 10-12+ knots during the afternoon.
I think Friday should be pretty fun at almost all of the combo spots in SoCal (just make sure they have good SW exposure). It won’t be huge or anything but the mix of swells, the cleaner conditions, and the fact that the water is warming back up make for a pretty good argument for surfboard riding. If you are looking for bigger and more consistent surf I would head to SD and South OC…they will be the most exposed to the swell mix. Other areas will be smaller but will still be rideable so don’t worry if you can’t afford the $8.50 per gallon that we are going to see at the pumps tomorrow.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
