Thursday, April 30, 2009

Friday’s Surf – Rinse and Repeat

Friday is looking rideable but won’t be a great surf day.

We are going to see a mix of SW swell (200-220) with one swell fading and another similar sized swell filling in. NW windswell will be on the rise throughout the day but it looks like the wind is going to come along with it.

Wave heights will hold around knee-waist high at the average spots. The standout SW facing breaks, like those in San Diego and South OC, will have some inconsistent chest and shoulder sets. A few of the better windswell breaks will be around chest-high+ as well but the shape won’t be all that fun.

Winds are looking ok...mostly variable with a touch of onshore texture for the morning. W winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon. A chance at some eddy in the morning...but not super strong.

Overall it is going to be pretty similar to the last couple of days...with a low-drained out tide in the morning and better shape as it fills in around midmorning. As always it will be race with the wind and the see if shape can improve before the bump gets it.

Here are the tides...

02:20AM LDT 4.7 H
10:11AM LDT -0.3 L
05:16PM LDT 3.7 H
10:23PM LDT 2.4 L

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Surf for Thursday – Nothing Special

Thursday is looking a bit blah...rideable but nothing all that fun.

The little inconsistent pulse of SW swell that hit on Wednesday will be fading slowly on Thursday. NW windswell will continue to hold in the background. The eddy conditions will be continuing as the texture/funk will still be hanging around.

Surf will be in the knee-waist high range for most spots. Top breaks will have some chest and inconsistent shoulder high sets. It will be long-waits between bring a book or something.

The eddy hangs around on Thursday...with S winds around 5-8 knots for the morning and W winds around 10-14 knots on tap for the afternoon.

The most consistent size will be around SD and South OC...but neither region will be worth driving much for. Generally we can expect lumpy soft windswell peaks with an occasional SW line that rolls through and crosses things up. I would still stick to the smaller wave gear to get through the waits between sets...personally I would give the cams a check in the morning before wasting too much gas.

Here are the tides...

12:58AM LDT 5.2 H
09:01AM LDT -0.5 L
04:16PM LDT 3.4 H
08:29PM LDT 2.7 L

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Waves for Wednesday – A little more SW’er

Wednesday will be surfable but it won’t be a very good surf day.

We are going to see a new, small and inconsistent, SW swell (200-220) mix with some leftover S energy and some background NW windswell. The eddy conditions are going to hang around even though there is some small swell in the water we will probably have some morning bump at the more exposed spots.

Surf will be in the waist high range for most of the exposed spots. The standout SW facing spots and really good combo breaks, mostly in South OC and San Diego, will have chest-shoulder high sets pushing through on the midmorning tide push.

Winds will be light out of the S in the morning for most of SD and OC...LA and Ventura will be more light and variable but may have a touch of onshore texture here and there. Look for the S winds to shift more to the W and build into the 10-12 knot range during the afternoon.

Again I wouldn’t expect a lot out of the surf tomorrow. There will be a few rideable peaks at the best spots but most other areas will get a good shellacking from the tide, winds, and lack of consistency. I would plan on your smaller wave gear...just so you can maximize the fun...something that will let you pick off the smaller waves in between the inconsistent sets. Also remember that the 6.0 Lowers Pro is on through the end of the week. They have a pretty good webcast to watch if you are tied to the computer all day (like I am).

Here are the tides...

07:50AM LDT -0.7 L
02:53PM LDT 3.1 H
06:42PM LDT 2.6 L

Monday, April 27, 2009

Tuesday’s Surf – Smaller and a bit fugly

Tuesday will be surfable but not what I would call a surf day.

The eddy winds that spun up on Monday are forecast to continue into Tuesday and our swell isn’t really all that exciting either. In the water we will have a mix of really leftover S swell, local windswell, and some slowly building (but inconsistent) SW swell (200-220).

Most spots will be around waist high...probably closer to knee-waist high on the higher tides. The top SW facing spots and the good windswell/combo breaks will see some inconsistent chest high+ sets.

Winds will still be a bit funky...sort of eddy, sort of variable onshore. The forecast models are calling for the cleanest conditions around midmorning...but I don’t think the bump is really going to go away, expect just a light to moderate texture for the more exposed areas. W winds around 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon.

I would stick to spots that have some wind protection tomorrow...the funk on the water wasn’t very appealing on Monday...something that could have knocked down the bump would have been nice. I think that the better sandbars and combo breaks will be the best call...don’t expect a lot of punch behind the surf but if you can get to the right spot you should be able to pick off a couple of rideable peaks.

If you were planning on surfing Trestles this week...plan on skipping Lowers...the Nike 6.0 Lowers Pro starts on Tuesday (and runs through Saturday May 2nd), so access to the break is going to be extremely limited.

But even though you can’t surf in the contest area it is worth checking out the live contest usually gives an awesome live look at the conditions down that way. Also yours truly is the “official forecaster” for the event through sure to check out my event forecasts.

Here are the tides.

06:45AM LDT -0.9 L
01:26PM LDT 3.1 H
05:34PM LDT 2.3 L
11:55PM LDT 5.6 H

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Monday’s Surf – Fading swell but worth a check

Monday will be a surf day…nothing great…but the winds will be a bit better than they have been.

Our swell will be a mix of fading S swell (180-200), some weaker SW energy (200-220), and some local NW windswell. The S in particular will be losing energy throughout the day and will be fading completely out over the next couple of days.

Most spots will have surf in the waist-chest high range with some chest high+ sets at times. The standout S facing spots and the good combo breaks, in OC and San Diego, will have some chest-shoulder high surf, again with a couple of rare bigger sets on the lower tides.

Winds will be decent through the morning…mostly light and variable throughout SoCal. W winds around 10-15 knots move back in through the afternoon.

Like I said it won’t be great or anything tomorrow but there will be a little bit of swell leftover and the winds will be ok…so there will be a few playful peaks at the better exposed breaks. I actually think that the exposed beach breaks will have the most size and consistency, especially those that can pull in the mix of swell...but the points and reefs will likely still be playful as well.

Here are a couple of pictures that I shot late last week (Thursday) as the swell was hitting in the morning. Thanks to the stupid eddy the light was bad and I was too cold (and lazy) to get far from the truck…so they aren’t the greatest photos…anyway just thought I would share.

Here are the tides for Monday.

05:49AM LDT -1.1 L
12:14PM LDT 3.3 H
04:47PM LDT 2.0 L
11:04PM LDT 6.0 H

Friday, April 24, 2009

Waves for the weekend – Plenty of swell but some wind issues

Both Saturday and Sunday will be surf days...but like the last couple of days...the quality of surf is going to vary greatly spot to spot.

The S swell (180-210) will be slowly fading on Saturday (and continue to fade on Sunday). We will also see some new building NW windswell and background SW swell (200-220). Expect plenty of energy showing at most spots throughout SoCal, with the exception of the Santa Barbara area, so there will be lots of waves. Unfortunately you will have to have something to break up the more dominant S swell if you want to have decent shape. Check out the CDIPper

Winds will be an issue this weekend...the same sort of eddy/onshore flow that we saw on Thursday and Friday will continue for both Saturday and Sunday. Mornings and midmornings will be the cleanest, but you can still expect texture at the more exposed beaches. Winds will be primarily variable onshore to southerly and will stay below 5-8 knots for most areas. Check out the NWS for both Sat/Sun at 8am.



Afternoons look windy on both days.

Shapewise...Saturday morning the points and reefs are going to be the best call again. The walls of death, (well not really death...walls of injury...maybe walls of humiliation or walls of frustration would be more apt), will continue at the beach breaks.

By Sunday there will be a bit more windswell in the water so the combo spots, even some of the more exposed beach breaks, should get a little more crossed up. I think that with the new NW windswell and the dropping energy in the S swell we could see a little more peaky shape...maybe not solid a-frames...but at least a little more shoulderly that we have seen over the last couple of days. Tides will continue to be funky...but the low tide gets more firmly planted during the dawn patrol so at least the morning will have a better chance at decent shape.

Have a good one this weekend...and stay are the tides.

04:14AM LDT -0.9 L
10:24AM LDT 3.8 H
03:35PM LDT 1.3 L
09:42PM LDT 6.0 H

04:59AM LDT -1.1 L
11:15AM LDT 3.6 H
04:09PM LDT 1.6 L
10:20PM LDT 6.0 H

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Surf for Friday – more S swell

Friday will be another surf day but, like Thursday, you are going to have to battle it out at the points and reefs if you want quality surf.

That S-SSW swell (180-210) will continue to peak on Friday and mix with just some minimal NW windswell.

Most spots will have surf in the chest-shoulder high+ range with some head high sets. The top S facing spots, mostly through OC, SD, and North LA, will have more consistent shoulder-head high surf with overhead+ sets mixing in at times. Look for some occasionally bigger waves at those spots that really focus S swells.

Winds look sort of borderline tomorrow...not good but not horrible either. We should have light/variable to light-S flow for the morning. Winds should generally be below 5-8 knots but there may be some texture to it. Look for SW-W winds to develop through the afternoon and come onshore around 10-15+20 knots in the more exposed areas. If you are in the right spot (IE protected from the S winds) you might even be able to pick off some cleaner conditions.

Points and reefs are going to be the call again on Friday...beach breaks are going to continue to be walled up, sectiony, and have a decent current running at times. The beach breaks will have some occasional don’t count them completely out...I just wouldn’t count on them to be very fun. Expect some bigger crowds at the spots that can hold the swell better. The high tide hits around 9-10am tomorrow so there might be a little more of a tide-friendly surf window during the dawn patrol...but don’t expect it to last long.

Here are the tides...

03:32AM LDT -0.6 L
09:37AM LDT 4.0 H
03:04PM LDT 1.1 L
09:09PM LDT 5.9 H

Swell Update: S swell is here

I love seeing real energy on the Socal Model...and winds aren't out of control...hope you guys get some today.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Thursday’s Surf – Peaking S swell with a touch of eddy

Thursday is looking like a surf day...but thanks to eddy winds you might have to hunt around for a truly clean spot.

The S swell (180-210) is filling in nicely this afternoon...plenty of energy showing on the buoys with lots of it in the 20-second period range. Check it out.

The swell will actually peak closer to 15-17 there is still some more energy on its way in. We are also going to see some slowly building local windswell but I don’t think it is going to help to break up the S swell all that much.

For Thursday look for the average exposed S-facing breaks to see surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets. Standout S-swell spots, mostly through Orange County, San Diego, and a few parts of North LA, will have more consistent shoulder-head high surf with overhead sets mixing in as well. OC and SD will have some bigger sets on the lower tides...but only at select spots that can really focus the longer-period S swell.

I think winds are going to be an issue...the forecast has some building winds in the outer waters, as well as a couple of weak low-pressure that move through our region over the next couple of days. This set up obviously cooled off the beach temps and spun up the eddy/marine layer on Wednesday...and it is expected to do similar things on Thursday. At this point I think that there will be variable winds in the morning...and a little bit of southerly flow for OC and SD...but if you have a spot with high-cliffs, kelp, or something to block the winds it should be ok.

Here are the winds for the morning...

Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles

Orange County and San Diego

I think the points/reefs are going to be the call tomorrow...the beach breaks are going to pretty walled up unless you have a pier/jetty/huge-ass-sandbar to break up the S-swell lines. Unfortunately that also means there is going to be plenty of current at the exposed spots expect to do some paddling tomorrow in some areas. The tide is also high in the morning (man can’t anything go our way) so you will have to work around that as well.

While winds don’t improve a ton later this week (and weekend) it does look like more windswell will work its way into SoCal...hopefully we will see the beach breaks open up a bit more as it starts to cross things up. Check out the sideways CDIP forecast for the next few days.

Here are the tides...

02:54AM LDT -0.1 L
08:52AM LDT 4.1 H
02:35PM LDT 0.9 L
08:39PM LDT 5.6 H

Swell Update – The new SSW’er is starting to show on the buoys

The long-period energy from the new SSW swell (180-210) is showing on the buoys this morning…not much is showing at the beach yet…and a lot of that energy is being buried by the high tide.

It is just nice to know that it is out there. Look for this SSW’er to fill in more throughout the day and for the peak of the swell to hit Thursday and Friday.

Have a good one…I will have the forecast coming through later this afternoon.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Wednesday’s Waves – Starting off slow...really slow

I don’t think that Wednesday is going to be too much of a surf morning...but we will have some new sets slowly filling in through the afternoon.

The swell models are showing our new S-SSW swell (180-210) arriving slowly throughout the day on Wednesday...but I think they are being a little optimistic with the swell period, which they have running at 22-seconds for the start of this swell. Likely what we are going to see is that long-period energy on the buoys in the morning but not much on the beach until later in the day... (and really the swell will be peaking Thursday and Friday at the exposed spots).

Here is a super weather nerd please skip this section if you just want the surf for tomorrow. This is the actual text output from WavewatchIII (for the 46224 output if it means anything to you guys) that part I circled is the new swell...from left to right you have wave height (in meters), swell period, and direction (you have to add 180-degrees for a proper swell angle)...oh and the times are in zulu time which is always a pain in the ass. Anyways it shows that while there are some longer periods there isn’t a ton of “size” behind it least according to the model and in this case I actually think the computer is overcalling it a bit for tomorrow...

So for actual surf sizes tomorrow...expect a slow dawn patrol with lots of spots holding in the knee high range, and the top spots seeing some rare waist high sets. It will be extra-soft thanks to the higher tide that peaks right at 8am...but we will see some improvement as the tide drops and the swell fills in.

Winds look good...mostly light and variable through the morning. W-winds around 10-12+ knots for the afternoon.

I think that you should take the morning slow...there isn’t going to be much out there (and the tide will kill what is left) you will basically be in the water to enjoy the weather/experience rather than surfing. If you were going to be a bit more opportunistic...I would keep an eye on the cameras and the winds during the afternoon as the swell starts to fill in a bit more.

Here are the tides

02:18AM LDT 0.5 L
08:09AM LDT 4.1 H
02:07PM LDT 0.7 L
08:13PM LDT 5.2 H

Monday, April 20, 2009

Tuesday’s Surf – Looking pretty darn small

Tuesday is not going to be a surf day.

We will have great weather, good winds, but no real swell. There will be a mix of weak local windswell and some minimal background energy in the water but it is not going to amount to much...and the high tide peaks will probably shut it off almost all together.

Look for knee high sets at the average spots...ankle-knee high on the higher tides. The standout breaks will be around waist high...maybe waist high+ on inconsistent sets.

Windwise we can expect light and variable winds through the morning...maybe light-offshore for a couple of the areas with high cliffs. W winds around 10-12 knots build in through the afternoon and may strengthen through the end of the day. Looks like a chance at some fog for select areas by Wednesday.

Conditions are going to be so nice that it will be hard not to go to the beach but we really aren’t going to see much. I would plan on bringing a big-ass board and a good attitude...between those and the heat-wave you should be able to find a few soft micro lines. Try not to surf during the high-tide will just be a lesson in frustration.

Fortunately more swell is coming later this week.

Here are the tides.

01:42AM LDT 1.2 L
07:25AM LDT 4.0 H
01:40PM LDT 0.6 L
07:50PM LDT 4.7 H

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Waves for Monday – Hot with a side of small surf

The weak swell mix will continue into Monday…but so will the hot beach temps. It won’t really be a good surf day but the weather will probably make you want to get into the water anyways.

We will have a mix of small WNW swell (290-300), some patchy local windswell, and some weak background SW energy.

On average most spots will be in the knee to occasionally waist high range…the standout NW facing spots will be around chest high. All spots will have some issues with the tide…and may even come close to shutting down as it peaks.

Winds will be clean again in the morning with only light/variable to light offshore flow for most areas. The winds turn onshore around 10-12 knots by the afternoon.

I am expecting fairly similar surf to what we had over the weekend…soft, slow, and tide swamped at times. Most regions will have just some minimal energy but the best NW facing spots, mostly in Ventura and San Diego, will have some inconsistent bigger sets sneaking through on the lower tides. I would plan on bringing your smaller wave gear just to avoid the frustration caused by the swampiness.

I saw this dude on the news…I think he walked outside in Fontana without sunscreen.

Here are the tides…

01:06AM LDT 1.7 L
06:39AM LDT 3.9 H
01:13PM LDT 0.5 L
07:30PM LDT 4.3 H

Friday, April 17, 2009

Waves for the Weekend – Cold Water, Warm Air, small-playful surf

I think that both Saturday and Sunday will be surf days.

It won’t be big, and the water won’t be warm, but the weather will be nice and there will be enough little waves that we should all be able to get a couple of rideable corners.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of small S-SW swell (180-220 from a couple of different sources), some local NW windswell, and some new but fairly small WNW swell (290-300).

The average spots will hold right around waist high with some chest high sets. Standout combo spots and the better NW facing breaks will be around chest-shoulder high on the bigger waves.

As I said the water is pretty freaking cold in some places...HB lifeguards for example were calling it 52-degrees off the pier today. I haven’t heard much about the other regions, so drop me a comment or an email and let me know how much glass you have been cutting.

"Dammit I knew I should have brought my booties!"

Winds will be pretty good in the mornings...light and variable to light offshore for most areas. Those winds will come onshore around 10-14 knots by midday and into the afternoon. Sunny skies with some patchy fog in the mornings. Beach temps are supposed to be in the upper 70’s, which means that people will be bursting into flames in the inland expect a bit more beach crowdiness as people try to escape being crisped.

From a surf standpoint it is just going to be a mellow weekend...a few fun waves here and there but not a lot of push behind anything. I would probably stick to your smaller wave gear...longboards and fish...just so you can maximize the fun of the slightly gutless surf. I think that there will be a little more pep on Sunday as the WNW’er gets a little bigger but overall both days are going to be similar.

Here are the tides...have a good one!

04:36AM LDT 3.7 H
12:07PM LDT 0.5 L
06:58PM LDT 3.6 H

12:25AM LDT 2.3 L
05:46AM LDT 3.8 H
12:43PM LDT 0.5 L
07:13PM LDT 3.9 H

Swell Alert – Another S-SSW swell

The South Pacific, especially the part that makes up our swell window, really likes springtime. We have already had two pretty decent S swells...and I don’t know about the rest of you but I have surfed more over the last few weeks than I did almost completely through Dec-Jan.

Anyway, like I mentioned in yesterday’s forecast we have another S-SSW swell (180-200) heading our way. This swell was kicked out by a pretty decent looking system that had been trolling around the South Pacific for the last 4-5 days.

Check out what the QuikSCAT passes picked up on this storm...

And here is some Altimetry data from the JASON-1 satellite. (As always a big thanks to Mark @ stormsurf for letting me use an image now and then...please check out his site when you get a chance...the guy is an awesome forecaster and brilliant at putting the wave/wind/satellite data into useable formats).

Thanks to all of the pretty colors you can see that the storm had cranked up the core wind speeds into the 50-knot+ range at times as well as laid down a solid area of fetch. What was even better was that this storm had a lot of pre-existing sea-state to work with, which basically means that a previous storm came through moving roughly the same direction and tore up enough of the ocean surface that the winds in this new system didn’t have to work so hard...sort of like the “shampoo-effect” if you have ever had back to back days of drinking. All of this storm action has strung together a pretty solid pulse of SSW swell that will be hitting the usual regions starting around the middle of next week.

Here are the details...

Mainland Mexico and Central America
The really long-period energy (and I am talking 20+ seconds) of the SW’er (200-220) fills in slowly on the 21st...but the peak of the swell hits late on the 22nd and holds solid through the 23rd and 24th. Look for spots in this region to see consistent overhead+ surf at the better exposed spots. Standout breaks, particularly the good deepwater spots and outer reefs, will see sets going several feet overhead to nearly double-overhead at times. Even though the swell drops after the 24th expect several days of quality surf to continue to push into the region.

Baja Sur
The S-SSW swell (180-210) hits exposed areas on the 22nd and then peaks on the 23-24th. The swell is a little more southerly for this area compared to Mainland Mexico and Central America so it hits around the same time but with less size. As the swell peaks look for consistent head high sets at the average S facing spots while the standout breaks see overhead+ sets with some waves going a 2-3’ overhead on inconsistent sets. The majority of this energy will show at those really well-exposed spots...expect the more protected points/reefs to be smaller (but still fun).

Southern California
The S-SSW’er (180-210) fills in with the long-period forerunners on the 22nd, but with most of the energy arriving through the afternoon evening. The swell comes up fast through the 23rd and eventually peaks late that Thursday...holding through Friday and Saturday (the 24-25th) before dropping. In our region this swell looks good for shoulder-head high surf for the average S facing spots. The standout S-facing summer spots, mostly through Orange County (but in a few of the other regions too), will have more consistent head high and overhead surf with sets going 1-2’ overhead during the best conditions.

Hope you guys get a few good ones out of this swell.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Surf For Friday – Much Cleaner

Friday is looking like more of a surf day.

Thursday had a few decent ones in the morning thanks to the cooler temps turning the wind more northerly, which was nice, but the conditions didn’t hold up that long and after a couple of ‘nad numbing chilly hours the winds shifted onshore and tore up most areas.

On Friday the winds are going to be a bit better, high pressure is stabilizing over us and most of the forecast models agree that winds will be light and the air temps are going to be going up (eventually topping out in the upper 70’s to low 80’s at the beach over the weekend.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of dropping WNW windswell and small pulses from the SW and the WNW-NW. The windswell isn’t going to drop off completely but it will be backing down as the winds in the outer waters subside.

Look for the average spots to see surf in the waist-chest high range on Friday. The W-NW facing standout breaks will have surf in the shoulder high range on the sets. Expect the biggest surf in the San Diego area but with a couple of bigger pockets showing through Ventura and the South Bay as well.

Winds will be much better...mostly light and variable to light offshore for the morning. Those winds shift onshore around 10-12 knots for the afternoon and may have a slight chance of laying down late in the evening around sundown, particularly at spots that have a little protection from the W-NW flow.

Friday morning COAMPS wind forecast

While conditions will be much better the overall surf on Friday won’t be great...we will still have a lot of windswell lump in the surf shape, the other swells are smaller and less consistent, and the mix of energy is a bit sensitive to the tide swing...all of which just sort of blah’s the surf. I think you will be able to find a couple of nuggets but don’t expect a ton of good waves. I would probably stick to boards that have a little drive to them in windswell waves...something that makes up for the lack of push that the shorter period swells sometimes have.

Also I was looking at the long-range forecast and it looks like another good S-SSW swell (180-210) will be moving later next should show some long-period energy around the 22nd...but the peak of the swell will be on the 23-24th (with plenty of energy holding for a couple of days after the peak). At this point it looks like consistent shoulder-head high surf for S facing spots...with sets going overhead to maybe a couple of feet overhead at the top S-SW standouts. This swell hits Baja and Mainland Mex/Central America pretty good too. I will post a more detailed forecast in a little bit...

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Surf For Thursday – Cleaner but still a chance for some bump

Thursday will be a lot cleaner than Wednesday but I still don’t think it is going to be a good surf day.

Local winds are forecast to back down tonight...with super cold air-temps settling over some areas (the NWS is calling for frost and freezing temps in some of the inland valleys). As usual the colder nighttime temps have a tendency to switch around the wind...or at least knock it down a bit...and we can expect lighter winds for the morning. I don’t think it will be 100% clean...there is still a chance at some light onshore flow and leftover lump but it shouldn’t be totally blown out either. Hopefully we will get lucky and the cold air will switch the winds to the N a bit more.

You can watch the winds go by on the Satellite

It is a little hard to see on the photo so here is the animation -

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of good sized but fading W-WNW windswell lumping over fading S swell (180-190) and some background WNW/SW pulses. Most spots will see surf in the chest-shoulder high range for tomorrow morning...the top W facing spots, that really like the windswell, will have some shoulder-head high wouldn’t surprise me to see some head high+ sets through Southern San Diego.

Like I said...the winds don’t look great tomorrow. It will be cleanest around the dawn patrol, with light/variable to like W-NW flow. Generally it will stay below 10-knots for the AM...but by the afternoon it turns onshore and builds into the 10-15+ knot range at the more exposed areas.

Personally I still wouldn’t commit a lot of time to the surf tomorrow...there will be waves but the leftover lump will probably keep most spots fairly fugly. The water temps are going to nose-dive too thanks to upwelling...I would probably plan on bringing some booties if you aren’t down with the cold. I am probably going to be doing a cam-check from my toasty computer in the morning...just on the chance that winds switch around enough to make it worth it...but overall I am not expecting a lot.

Here are the tides...

01:17AM LDT 4.0 H
10:12AM LDT 0.6 L
06:45PM LDT 3.1 H
09:06PM LDT 3.0 L

That is a lot of wind

Seriously...this is crapload of onshore wind considering that there isn't actual "weather" associated with it.

Buoys are silly too.

I don't want to even think about how cold the water is going to be after all of this upwelling.

There was really no point to this post other than to say that it was windy and that springtime onshore winds suck.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Wednesday’s Waves – Getting funky now

Wednesday is not looking like a surf day. In fact it has the real possibility of being a particularly nasty surf day.

There is what they call an “upper level low-pressure”, which is basically a bubble of low-pressure that is sandwiched in the upper levels of the atmosphere, that is moving over Central California with the bottom edge pushing through Socal. This low is driving up winds in the outer waters, the winds were NW enough on Tuesday to spin up the eddy...but forecasts are showing those winds shifting more W-WNW on Wednesday and coming straight onshore, which is not good.

Swellwise we would have some playful surf from the continuing mix of S swell and the WNW’er that have been combo-ing up over the last couple of days. Now we have building W-WNW windswell that will lump over the longer—period swell and really hack up shape at the more exposed breaks.

We can expect surf to continue in the shoulder high range for most exposed spots and some areas of overhead+ sets as the windswell fills in. Unfortunately shape is going to be pretty shot as the local winds come onshore as well.

Windwise we can expect W-WNW winds 10-15 knots for most areas through the morning...and some areas of 20-knots (mostly around LA/Ventura). Afternoon winds build stronger...topping out W-WNW 15-25 knots with some stronger gusts at times. Check out the COAMPS for tomorrow.

Yeah this looks pretty craptacular...

I wouldn’t waste much time looking at the surf tomorrow...I would still plan a quick cam check in the morning (maybe the low will move through faster than the models expect)...but that would be about it.

Good news is that this funkiness will move out by Thursday and we will see much nicer weather and surf conditions as we head into the end of the week and the weekend.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Tuesday’s Surf – Great here comes the eddy.

So after a good day of surf on Monday (I hope you guys got some...the local beach break was firing during lunch today!) it looks like Tuesday is going to be a bit bumpy.

We are going to have that S swell (180-190) and the background WNW swell (290-300) holding energy into Tuesday. NW windswell will be on the rise too...look for building bump out of the NW filling in through the afternoon.

Lots of spots will continue to see consistent chest-shoulder high surf. Top S facing spots and the good combo breaks will be around head high on the sets with sets going overhead+ at times. Look for the most consistent size at the better combo areas...on the lower tides.

Winds are where it looks sucky...the winds in the outer waters are forecast to really blow over the next few days. Tuesday we are actually going to get lucky and have the local winds eddy...(Wednesday looks pretty thrashed) we can expect S-SE winds through the morning around 10 knots. It should be cleanest through LA county and parts of Ventura...San Diego and OC are looking at more southerly flow and more bump.

Since the S swell is pretty hefty...and we have the combo energy out in the looks like we might be able to get a few clean/semi-clean waves through the morning. You are going to want to head to spots that have protection from the S winds...areas like Southern Ventura, The South Bay, Central OC, and Central SD are all good areas to check around. Really since there is a lot of surf out there, I think that your personal tolerance for bumpy surf is going to play a big factor. Anyway I hope the eddy isn’t as bad as the forecast...I am planning on a cam check in the morning before driving around too much.

Here are the tides...

07:38AM LDT 0.3 L
02:43PM LDT 2.7 H
05:25PM LDT 2.6 L

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Surf for Monday – Peaking S swell

Monday will be a surf day.

We have S swell building in tonight that will be peaking on Monday…as well as bit of background energy from local NW windswell and some WNW energy (from out in the NPAC). The S swell is showing some decent energy on the buoys already and it looks like the majority of the swell will peak on Monday and into Tuesday. Check out the O-side buoy.

The average spots will see surf in the chest-shoulder high range on Monday. The better combo spots will be more consistently in the shoulder-head high range. The standout S facing spots, mostly through Orange County and the Northern parts of San Diego, will see some inconsistent overhead sets. Look for the biggest surf at those top summer spots that usually work good on the S swells.

Winds look good for Monday…mostly light and variable through the morning. Moderate onshore winds build in through the afternoon…coming out the of the WNW around 10-14 knots at the most exposed breaks.

Is this swell worth driving? Yeah I think so…it will be pretty good but it won’t be huge or firing…it sort of depends on what your “trigger” is for driving for surf. If you need double-overhead walls of death this probably isn’t the best swell. If you are looking for consistent shoulder-head high S lines…then it will be worth hunting around a bit.

Personally I think that the points and reefs are going to be the best shape…the beach breaks are going to be a bit lined up on the sets…but the other breaks will be able to string together some longer sections. Again I would focus on the good summer spots…the combo breaks will be fun too but the summer breaks will have the most size.

Here are the tides…

06:41AM LDT 0.0 L
01:08PM LDT 2.9 H
05:12PM LDT 2.3 L
11:38PM LDT 4.8 H

Friday, April 10, 2009

Waves for the Weekend – A little funk on Saturday. New S swell on Sunday

We are going to have some surf this weekend.

Saturday is going to be a bit funky as this weird little storm warbles over us...fortunately conditions do improve by Sunday, just in time for the new S swell (180-190) to arrive.

On Saturday we can expect a mix of WNW swell (290-300), local NW windswell, and some SW swell (200-220). Most spots will hold in the chest high range. The standout combo spots and the really exposed NW spots (*cough* San Diego *cough*) will have some shoulder-head high sets. Shape won’t be ideal thanks to some variable onshore flow that is forecast to hold over the area. At this point it looks like textured bump with winds around 10-knots for the morning...and then more W-SW flow pushing through the afternoon. Check out this little pain in the butt storm on the GOES satellite.

Sunday we see the new S swell (180-190) start to fill in. Periods will be pretty long as the swell first starts to arrive...probably around 18-19 seconds initially. I don’t think we are going to see a ton of new size through the morning but there will be some extra punch as the first sets start to arrive at the exposed areas. Look for more size as the swell continues to fill in through the day...chance for some head high+ sets at the top S spots (mostly through Orange County) by late in the day. This swell eventually peaks Monday and expect plenty of waves from it as we head through next week.

Winds on Sunday look much better...forecasts are calling for light and variable winds through the morning with a few spots of light texture. Onshore W flow around 10-12 knots moves in through the afternoon.

Like I said...we should see plenty of waves this weekend but Sunday looks the best. All areas will have playful sizes but the top NW facing spots and the best S facing breaks (and the excellent combo spots) will see the most size and the most consistency. If you can I would plan on surfing more on Sunday just because the conditions look better...but I would also try and carve out some time to surf early next week as the S swell (and another WNW’er) fill in a bit more and peak.

Here are the tides...Have a great weekend and a happy Easter!

05:13AM LDT -0.5 L
11:19AM LDT 3.6 H
04:29PM LDT 1.5 L
10:37PM LDT 5.4 H

05:55AM LDT -0.3 L
12:08PM LDT 3.2 H
04:52PM LDT 1.9 L
11:06PM LDT 5.1 H

Random Morning Surf Report – stupid storm

Sooo that lovely storm that was supposed to move in and blow out our conditions is taking its sweet time actually arriving in SoCal.

In fact, at this point, the storm is actually moving further out to sea and south of us, which is pretty weird…since storms generally don’t ever do that.

Conditions are still pretty clean at this point and it looks like they could stay marginally surfable for the next few hours since the storm is still about 200-300 miles off the coast (and sort of listing about like a drunken sailor).

Since the wind is down we have a shot at some WNW/SW swell combo (as well as building windswell). Look for most spots to be in the waist-chest high range on sets with some of the standouts (Ventura, parts of the South Bay, South OC, and San Diego) to have some shoulder high+ sets. There should have been a touch more size form the windswell but looks like that energy is going to lay low for a while.

The forecasts still have the potential for rain and increasing onshore winds but the % chance is dropping as the storm trails southward, which while bad for my forecast this morning, is good since conditions look like they will be a bit cleaner for the weekend. Ah good times…stupid storm.

Hope you get a chance to get some...I am throwing the board in the truck right now.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Friday’s wind tunnel – yeah it is supposed to suck

So a new storm is approaching on it doesn’t look like a surf day...but there may be a small window for a few areas through the morning but it is a pretty slim chance.

We are going to have a mix of increasing local WNW-NW windswell, WNW long-period swell, and SW swell...all of which will add some size to our surf as they flesh out a bit more tomorrow.

Sizewise we can expect consistent chest high+ surf for the average exposed areas. Standout NW facing spots see some shoulder-head high surf...but those will be mostly in San Diego.

The winds will start off S-SE in the morning. The COAMPS which called the winds better than the other models Thursday morning is showing a pretty developed front pushing through during the dawn patrol. Conditions are going to be dependent of when the front moves through…if it stalls and hangs off the coast in the AM then winds will be more SE, and there will be a few rideable breaks in Ventura, the South Bay, Central OC and Central SD. If the front jumps on us then it will be blown out.

The afternoon looks pretty sloppy…SW-W winds 15-20 knots with 25 knot gusts, periods of rain, and they are even calling for waterspouts, which sounds a little extreme…but whatever.

Basically I would just plan on taking it slow in the morning. Another cam check morning…maybe a run to the beach if you are close to a S wind protected spot…the usual morning check. I wouldn’t plan on driving very far but if the weather cooperates we might see some rideable spots.

Conditions look better for Monday/Tuesday…and we have a new S swell coming through. Check out the update I sent earlier for more details on that.

Swell Alert: S-swell for early next week (better conditions too!)

So a few days ago I mentioned a S swell that was going to be hitting early next week...then I got so freaking busy that I didn’t have time to get into the details. Anyway I am a giant swell-tease...but I am back to deliver.

We are going to see another good shot of S swell (180-190) heading towards California and Baja...which will also hit Mainland Mexico and Central America from more of a SSW-SW’erly (200-220) swell direction.

The storm that kicked out this S-SW swell (depending on where you are) actually spun up over last weekend. It wasn’t super strong, winds held consistently around 30-40 knots with some stronger gusts, but it had a number of good things going for it.

1. It was well positioned in our swell window
2. It moved closer than most storms get (the fetch actually pushed north of 30-south latitude)
3. It moved directly towards California/Baja (and Mexico/Central America)
4. It had a long lifespan (there were still some remnants of fetch holding together as of yesterday)
5. I heard Chuck Norris started it by kung-fu chopping a great white shark off the coast of Australia

In any case it looks like we should have some good S-SW swell arriving through the early part of next week.

Here are the details for each of the regions...

Mainland Mexico and Central America
The swell will hit Mexico/Central America on Saturday and peak Sunday-Monday before very slowly fading through the middle of next week. Look for consistent overhead surf through the region with some of the deepwater spots like Puerto Escondido seeing double overhead sizes.

Baja Sur
For Baja Sur we can expect the S swell to arrive at similar the first part of the energy arrives on Saturday and the peak of the swell hits Sunday and Monday. It will be a bit smaller for this region...look for consistent shoulder-head high surf for the average S facing spots while the standouts see overhead waves with some sets going 1-2’ overhead at times.

Southern California and Baja Norte
Southern California will see the swell arrive on Sunday, with the peak of the swell arriving Monday and Tuesday. Locally the weather over the weekend for SoCal is going to be a bit crappy...but conditions start to improve about the same time the swell fills in. It also looks like we are going to see a decent WNW swell (290-300) arriving about the same time...(man I love combo swells!) won’t be a big WNW’er but it should help break up the S swell. Sizewise we can expect surf in the chest-head high range for most of the S facing spots. Standout S facing areas, particularly regions like Orange County, will have overhead sets. The swell will eventually start to fade on Wednesday...but expect it to continue to send in some rideable sizes through the end of the week.

Overall for SoCal it isn't going to be a huge swell...but there will be plenty of waves for most of the exposed spots, and the swell should have some, (weather permitting), we will get a few days of fun surf.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Surf for Thursday – Cleaner but still some issues

Thursday is looking surfable but I don’t think that it is going to be a “surf day”.

We are going to see a mix of increasing SW swell (200-220), building WNW swell (290-300) and some more local W-NW windswell will all help to drive up wave heights. But weather and conditions look a bit unstable. We are basically slipping between a couple of springy cold fronts right now and the upper level stuff is all over the place.

Sizewise I am expecting surf in the chest high-chest high+ range for most exposed areas. The standout NW facing areas and the really good combo spots, mostly through San Diego, will have shoulder-head high surf.

Like I said the winds are a little dicey...the GFS and the National Weather Service are calling for light and variable conditions through the morning...while some of the other models are showing onshore flow. Personally I think it is going to be a bit of a crap shoot. If winds can lay down early tonight or if it gets really cold for some reason we might see lighter conditions in the morning...but I am not holding my breath.

With conditions and weather the way that it is forecast I don’t think that you should commit a ton of time to checking the surf tomorrow. There is enough swell in the water that it will be worth a look but I wouldn’t drive very far...if you are more than 10-15 minutes away from the beach you might think about just doing a cam check in the morning.

03:54AM LDT -0.5 L
09:51AM LDT 4.3 H
03:37PM LDT 0.7 L
09:41PM LDT 5.7 H

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Waves for Wednesday – Looks a lot like poop

Wednesday is not going to be much of a surf day.

We have a new little storm forecast to move through the area on Wednesday...nothing super strong but enough to drive up W winds in our local waters. Unfortunately that means we will have moderate 10-12 knot W winds through the morning and W winds 10-15+ knots (wind gusts near 20 knots) on tap for the most exposed beaches by the afternoon.

If it had been cleaner we probably would have had some fun...there is a mix of S-SW and WNW swell in the water as well as some local windswell. Most breaks will continue to be in the chest high+ range while the better combo spots see some shoulder high+ sets at times.

The winds are just a bad angle for SoCal...we can kind of deal with WNW, N, and even S winds...but the W-SW directions are pretty bad. If you have some weird sheltered spot, and you live across the street from it, it might be worth a check...other than that I would wait for some light...check the cams...see the wind...and then do something else.


Monday, April 6, 2009

Surf for Tuesday – a few waves and some more out the back

Tuesday morning is still looking like a surf day…but an approaching low-pressure looks like it might start the weather to go a bit wonky by the afternoon.

In the water we are going to see a mix of much smaller but still playful S-SSE swell (170-180), some local windswell, and a WNW/SW combo that holds in the background.
Sizewise we can expect most spots to be fairly consistently in the waist-chest high range. The better breaks will be more chest-high+, and the top spots, mostly in SD and OC, will have some chest-shoulder high+ sets.

Shape looks good in the morning with light/variable winds for most areas and maybe some light S flow for a few of the unlucky beaches. Increasing S-SW winds 10-15 knots are forecast for the afternoon. The weather is supposed to cool off, get a bit cloudy, and even drizzle by the late evening. It won’t be much but you probably shouldn’t wash your car.

I would try and get on it early in the morning, just so you can get the better winds, and hopefully a few waves before the high tide peaks to fully. Combo breaks are going to be the best call, beach breaks should be fun but there still may be a little current if it is exposed to the S-SW swell mix. The points/reefs will be fun as well but may be a little broken up at times.

Long-range is starting too look pretty interesting…there is a pretty decent looking storm due south of us right now that is putting some 40-50 knot winds up on the QuikSCAT analysis. Check it out…

With these stronger winds, and fetch that is moving almost directly towards us, it looks like we should get a pretty fun swell around the beginning of next week. We should actually start to see some long-period energy showing on the buoys on the 12th…but the main push of swell should hit on the 13-14th. At this point it looks good for easy shoulder-head high surf for the S facing spots. The standouts, mostly through Orange County, should have some consistent overhead sets. There is also a chance a bit of a WNW swell to be arriving around the same time, it won’t be much but hopefully we can see it break up the S swell. Anyway…more details on this one as we get closer.

Here are the tides.

02:31AM LDT 0.3 L
08:23AM LDT 4.8 H
02:39PM LDT -0.1 L
08:46PM LDT 5.3 H

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Monday’s Surf – more fun S swell (and combo)

Monday is looking like a surf day.

The S swell that filled in more on Sunday had a bit more power than I was expecting so (after seeing what it did today) I think it is going to hold onto a little more juice as we head into Monday.

We are going to have a mix of S-SSE swell (170-180), local NW windswell, and a bit of WNW energy (290-300).

We are going to see surf in the chest high range at the average S exposed spots and the better combo breaks as well. The better exposed S facing spots will have some consistent shoulder high sets. The top spots, the really good S spots and the excellent combo spots in Orange County and San Diego, will have mostly shoulder high surf but there will be some bigger head high sets sneaking through. It might be hard to see some of the better sized waves through the morning tide but shape and consistency should improve as the tide drops.

Winds will be light and variable through the morning, even light offshore in a few areas. Conditions and shape should be clean through the morning. Onshore winds fill in midmorning and will eventually come out of the NW-WNW around 10-12 knots through the afternoon.

OC and SD spots are going to see the most size thanks to the sneaky little S-SSE swell...a few of the waves will push through north LA too but it will be smaller than the counties to the south. I think that it will be worth a check during the dawn patrol but the tide will likely cause some issues. I would try and check spots that can handle a little more water in the am, and that are exposed to the S swell/windswell combo. Hopefully we can see the winds hold off long enough for the tide to drop a little.

Here are the tides.

01:46AM LDT 0.9 L
07:34AM LDT 4.9 H
02:07PM LDT -0.3 L
08:18PM LDT 5.0 H

Friday, April 3, 2009

Waves for the weekend – better conditions and tasty waves

Well I don’t know about “tasty” waves (I have seen what is usually floating out there)...but both Saturday and Sunday are going to be surf days.

Conditions are going to improve quite a bit as this cold front moves out later Friday night. By Saturday we are going to see a mix of still healthy, but steeply swell-angled NW windswell, some background S-SW energy from a couple of small SPAC storms, as well as a touch of longer-period NW swell from the North Pacific.

On Saturday morning we can expect the average spots to see consistent chest high surf with some less consistent shoulder high sets mixing in. Top NW facing surf spots, mostly through San Diego (but in Ventura and the South Bay as well ), we will see consistent head high sets with some overhead peaks mixing in on the better sandbars. Expect to lose some size at most spots as the NW windswell backs off slowly through the day.

Sunday will be a bit smaller but shape may improve as the shorter swell-periods groom out. There will still be the mix of windswell, S-SW energy and WNW swell...just a little more long-period energy and less local windswell. We can still expect surf in the chest high range for most spots with some inconsistent chest high+ sets. Top combo breaks, in Orange County and San Diego, will have some shoulder high+ sets.

Winds on both days are looking pretty good. Light and variable to light offshore for the mornings...and then the normal moderate onshore for the afternoons (W-NW around 10-14 knots).

Check out the COAMPS for both days’ dawn patrols.



I think that top sandbars are going to be the call this weekend...the combo swell usually works pretty good at the beach breaks but the shorter period windswell needs a little help standing up, a bathometric Viagra if you will, so some extra sand will work a little better. The points/reefs could be fun too just don’t expect long sections, it will be a bit broken up. San Diego is going to have the most size throughout SoCal...but most areas should have some spots working so it won’t be worth driving very far. Overall I think we can have some fun if we hit it early, and just appreciate that conditions are total poop anymore.

Here are the tides...have a good weekend!

05:33AM LDT 4.7 H
12:50PM LDT -0.5 L
07:21PM LDT 4.1 H

12:56AM LDT 1.5 L
06:39AM LDT 4.9 H
01:31PM LDT -0.5 L
07:50PM LDT 4.6 H

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Friday’s Cold Front – Not looking like much fun

Friday is not going to be a surf day.

We have a new cold front that is moving down the coast this evening and will be pushing over SoCal tomorrow. Conditions are going to depend a lot on how the front behaves, how fast it moves, and the exact angle that it pushes over us...but for the most part conditions are looking pretty sloppy tomorrow.

Local windswell will be on the rise throughout the day tomorrow and it will be mixing with some more S-SW energy, and some longer-period WNW swell (290-300). Most spots will be in the waist-chest high+ range while the standout NW facing spots, mostly around San Diego and Southern Ventura, will have some shoulder-head high+ surf by the end of the day. The biggest spots will also be the most exposed to the wind so don’t expect much rideable size.

Winds will be the biggest issue. Current COAMPs model is calling for the front to stall out a little overnight and leave a little eddy going early tomorrow morning. Check out the model...

If it does it looks like LA might have a little semi-clean pocket for the dawn patrol. This doesn’t last long though...and then it is all onshore winds out of the W-SW around 10-15+ knots the rest of the day. Probably some stronger gusts and a little bit of rain as well.

For tomorrow I would just plan on taking it easy...wait for there to be enough light for a cam check if you live close enough to a spot that has some S wind protection. Other than that it looks like it is going to be pretty messy tomorrow. Personally I don’t think I am going to get much surf...most of my local spots don’t like the S winds...but I may keep an eye on the trees outside and see if something funky spins up as the front moves over us.

04:09AM LDT 4.6 H
11:59AM LDT -0.3 L
06:50PM LDT 3.6 H
11:52PM LDT 2.2 L

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Thursday’s Surf – looks a little fugly

Thursday isn’t looking like much of a surf day.

The S-SW winds got on things pretty early on Wednesday, there were a few spots that were OK around the dawn patrol but the onshore bump seemed to spread around pretty fast. Thursday isn’t going to be much different. There will be some semi-rideable swell in the water but local winds aren’t going to help us out much.

We are going to have a mix of small SW swell (190-220) and local NW windswell. Most spots will hold around waist high with some waist-chest high sets. Standout NW facing spots and the better exposed combo breaks will have some chest high+ sets.

Winds are forecast to be onshore through the day…either out of the S-SW or W…it looks like the eddy spins up in the morning so we should have some S-SW flow around 5-8 knots. This eventually switches more SW-W and build in around 10-14 knots. Overall it won’t be completely blown out…but it won’t ever really get all that clean at most spots either. If the winds can stay more southerly there are a few spots in all of our areas that will be cleaner, which at least gives us a little hope at surfing without too much bump.

I wouldn’t waste a lot of time trying to find surf tomorrow. If you live close to an area that likes south wind it might be worth a check (at minimum a cam check) early in the day. Other areas will be bumpy so don’t expect a ton of fun out of them even in the morning.

Generally I am a little skeptical of what I see on the internet (there is a lot of crazy crap out there)…but April fools day is particularly annoying because people make some pretty damn good fakes. That being said…some guys are pretty funny…I think this has to be one of my favorites.

Make sure to watch the video.

Now your breadmeat shines with deliciousness. Most yes!