Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Surf For Thursday – Cleaner but still a chance for some bump

Thursday will be a lot cleaner than Wednesday but I still don’t think it is going to be a good surf day.

Local winds are forecast to back down tonight...with super cold air-temps settling over some areas (the NWS is calling for frost and freezing temps in some of the inland valleys). As usual the colder nighttime temps have a tendency to switch around the wind...or at least knock it down a bit...and we can expect lighter winds for the morning. I don’t think it will be 100% clean...there is still a chance at some light onshore flow and leftover lump but it shouldn’t be totally blown out either. Hopefully we will get lucky and the cold air will switch the winds to the N a bit more.

You can watch the winds go by on the Satellite

It is a little hard to see on the photo so here is the animation -

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of good sized but fading W-WNW windswell lumping over fading S swell (180-190) and some background WNW/SW pulses. Most spots will see surf in the chest-shoulder high range for tomorrow morning...the top W facing spots, that really like the windswell, will have some shoulder-head high wouldn’t surprise me to see some head high+ sets through Southern San Diego.

Like I said...the winds don’t look great tomorrow. It will be cleanest around the dawn patrol, with light/variable to like W-NW flow. Generally it will stay below 10-knots for the AM...but by the afternoon it turns onshore and builds into the 10-15+ knot range at the more exposed areas.

Personally I still wouldn’t commit a lot of time to the surf tomorrow...there will be waves but the leftover lump will probably keep most spots fairly fugly. The water temps are going to nose-dive too thanks to upwelling...I would probably plan on bringing some booties if you aren’t down with the cold. I am probably going to be doing a cam-check from my toasty computer in the morning...just on the chance that winds switch around enough to make it worth it...but overall I am not expecting a lot.

Here are the tides...

01:17AM LDT 4.0 H
10:12AM LDT 0.6 L
06:45PM LDT 3.1 H
09:06PM LDT 3.0 L


Anonymous said...

hopefully wont be too cold

what's your motivation? said...

This is a good post as you are absolutely wrong about the wind.
It was pretty much a guarantee things would turn offshore and cold this am.
Keep up the misinfo. and the crowds down.
Speaking of misinfo....
The wavewatch site graph is thee most constantly wrong site on forecasting.
Keep it up!
Do you even realize that you effect the crowds?

Anonymous said...

I totally enjoyed the empty waves this morning!!! Offshore and overhead...even surfshot got it wrong.

Anonymous said...

To the "what's your motivation" comment... Don't like, don't read! Adam is consistently the best forecaster between all services and he does it for free...

Your agenda has no place on this site... You're actually complaining because you got uncrowded waves... you're a kook!

Anonymous said... - includes wind forecast and is nearly almost always right on the money - book mark it yo!

Anonymous said...

Adam- This is a great site. Glad to have found you. What are you up to? Lets link up on Facebook. It would be great to see the kids. Best to Karen. SA sez Hi. Best regards,