Thursday, July 29, 2010

Friday’s Surf – Well at least it will be warm in the morning…(please note the sarcasm)

Friday will be semi-rideable but it will be a long way away from what I would call a surf day.

If you were looking at the full spectrum of swell energy that is showing on the forecast models for Friday you would be all excited and would probably skip around your yard like a spastic little kid…that is until you went back and looked at the actual “amount of energy” that all of these swells are showing…then you would just be sad.

Then you could look at the beach temps and it would just make you want to curl up in a little ball and think of your happy place. This July sure is sort of sucking.

Now that I have crushed your hopes and dreams…we can get on with the details. Swellwise… basically we are going to have a bunch of different little S-SW swells (180-220) and some sloppy NW windswell…none of which are going to be very fun.

We can expect the average spots to see surf in the ankle-knee high range while the standout combo spots see some waist high sets. Overall the “push” of the surf is going to be pretty soft…but you might be able to get out there and ride a big board or something like a downed redwood log.

Winds will be ok…not great…just sort of blah. Look for winds to be light/variable/onshore through the morning. Mostly clean, but with a little texture here and there. The really exposed spots will have some 4-5 knot onshore bump…which if you pardon the pun, blows. Look for WNW-NW winds 10-15 knots for the afternoon.

I wouldn't be in a hurry to get to the beach...and if you do go, bring the wetsuit and the small wave gear. Personally I might be staying home and building some awesome lego spaceships with my 5 year old.

Here are the tides...

07/30/2010 Friday
06:13AM LDT 0.7 L
12:35PM LDT 4.3 H
06:35PM LDT 1.9 L

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Surf for Thursday – Oh there will be a few little waves out there Thursday morning...

To be honest…my bed is going to feel so freaking awesome that it might take some sort or serious natural disaster, or a pumping double-overhead combo swell with Santa Ana winds, to properly motivate me enough to leave the soft heavenly goodness that is calling me right now.

Ok…Thursday looks a little surfable (little being the key word there)…there isn’t much swell in the water…but there will be a few semi-rideable waves that will pull together at the breaks that can combo up a little of the swell.

We are going to have a mix of overlapping S-SW swells as well as a bit of NW windswell. The Southern hemi swells are either fading out, weren’t big enough to begin with, or got blocked up by the south Pacifica islands that seem to really like to screw up our swell. The NW windswell will be out there too…but the angle is too steep and most of the that energy will get blocked up by Point conception.

Most spots are going to hold in the ankle-knee high range…basically big enough to push some water on the sand, but not enough to ride. The S-SW facing breaks will be a little more energetic…but even those breaks will be the most fun on the bigger board.

Winds look good, (well of course they do…there isn’t any swell…stupid wind). Look for light and variable conditions in the morning with a couple of small pockets of onshore texture. Overall it will be pretty clean so if you can find a spot that can combo up the swell mix I would try and get on it before the winds get too strong. Look for NW winds 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

I might load up the longboard and give the local little beach breaks a check in the morning…but really I am going to get some coffee and some doughnuts, watch the tide drop…and maybe, just maybe, if I get some extra sleep this morning I might get out there and ride a few windswell softies.

Here are the tides…I would send some extra time listening to your pillow tomorrow.

07/29/2010 Thursday
05:50AM LDT 0.3 L
12:07PM LDT 4.3 H
05:48PM LDT 1.9 L
11:29PM LDT 4.5 H

Waves for Wednesday – A few, crumbly, but rideable waves

Wednesday will be semi-rideable...but the swell mix really isn’t all that impressive, and it looks like the winds will get on things pretty early. So if you are planning on surfing try to get out there in the morning before things get funky as the tide comes up and the winds begin hacking things up.

There are going to be a few waves on Wednesday but the winds aren’t going to be the greatest in the morning. There is a little bit of light onshore flow that sets up early and then just continues to strengthen out of the WNW-NW as we move throughout the day.

Our swell mix will be a blend of overlapping S-SW swells (180-210) and some NW windswell…none of it will be particularly big, but the SW swell (190-210) will be a bit stronger since it is filling in. The background windswell will sort of just hang out...and do what weak windswells usually do (not really much of anything).

Most spots will be in the knee-waist high range while the better exposed W facing areas and the good combo SW spots see some chest- to almost inconsistent shoulder high sets. The standout SW facing spot, mostly at the summer spots in San Diego and South OC, will be more in the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high+ surf sneaking in on the lower tide sets. Expect some pretty long waits between the bigger set waves due to the long-period nature of the SW swell…but the top spots could be pretty fun when everything gets a chance to blend together the right way…just don’t spend a lot of time holding your breath waiting for the quality waves.

Winds are where it is going to be funky…the WNW-NW flow is expected to get a jump on things early. It shouldn’t be more than 3-4 knots for most areas…but it will have enough energy to add some texture to the more open spots. Look for the NW flow to top out around 10-12 knots by midday and then probably hitting close to the 10-20 knot range by the afternoon. It will be pretty hacked up at the more exposed spots by the end of the day.

Like I said I would try and get on it early so that you can get some cleaner surf and the tides will be a bit more favorable. Unfortunately the new SW swell won’t be filling in too much through the dawn patrol, but you should still be able to find some playful waves if you bring the right boards. I would stick with the small wave gear…maybe even a few longboards just so that you can catch the smaller but more rideable waves while waiting for the bigger sets.

07/28/2010 Wednesday
05:26AM LDT 0.0 L
11:40AM LDT 4.2 H
05:08PM LDT 1.9 L
10:56PM LDT 5.0 H

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Waves for Tuesday – We can expect a few playful waves…but there will be long waits between sets and a shape will be a little gutless when they do show

Tuesday is looking like a Surf Day…it won’t be stellar or huge but the combo of S-SW swell will keep at least some rideable waves showing at the well exposes summer spots.

Sizewise It looks like a little more of the same on Tuesday…winds will remain on the light side and we can expect a slightly better pulse of S-SW along with a touch of southern heimi swells and background wind swells and some slightly stronger WNW-NW wind and that will slip in through the gaps in our nearshore islands as we move throughout the day.

Most of the average SW/NW combo spots are going to hold in the knee-waist high range with some occasional waist-chest high sets. The better combo breaks, that do a better job pulling in the mix of windswell and the inconsistent, but still playful, S-SW swells will hold more in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent chest-shoulder high sets that will sneak in on those shallower sandbars, and lower tides. That little swell mix combo should end up being at least semi-fun, if not a bit better at times. It won’t great, but surf but if you bring the right gear and a good attitude, you should be able to have some fun.

Winds look light in the morning with most areas seeing winds below the 5-know range, while in the more protected the spots see nearly glassy shape. I am expecting the winds to hold the lightest morning but the onshore flow does pick up pretty fast and we can expect building onshore bump in ghd 10-15 knot range by the afternoon.

With our swell mix being a bit on the small side…it isn’t going to be super exciting…and while it won’t be flat, it will be weak and inconsistent enough on the sets that it might not be a bad idea to bring the small wave gear…that way you can get some more fun out of the in-betweeners, but still be ready to pick off the bigger waves that will sneak through on the slightly better tides and on the inconsistent sets.

Here are the tides…happy hunting the small surf tomorrow.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Surf for Monday – Rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated

Just kidding…I have been out kicking it in Wyoming….letting my boys play with the great-grandparents and having a hell of a time of finding a way to connect to the interweb.

Next time I am bringing the sat phone

I finally installed a cell tower on an antelope, but those suckers are fast, (and weren’t too fond of the power drill) so after a lovely sprint (ok…it was a slow walk at my part) the little critter got tuckered out enough to lay down I got a chance to upload the blog.

Ok onto the surf forecast….Monday looks like a surfable day…not a great day mind you…bit with enough rideable waves that if you can find a playful little line here and there….but you are also going to want to pack an open mind, and a wetsuit(Just in case the water temps continue to stink it up)

The average S facing stops are going to see surf in the waist-chest high range while a few of the standout breaks see some shoulder high sets…waves will be inconsistent since we are seeing the tail end of the Sw swell…it won’t fade completely again but there will be less size and consistency as we head into the afternoon . Look for smaller waves again after dark.

Winds look…sort of marginal…nothing great…just sort of variable in the morning…not onshore shore, not offshore, but not clean either. Mostly the winds will be below the 05- knot range but there may be some lighter/cleaner breaks at regions that have a little protection from the S winds…places with piers, rocks, jetties, high-cliffs…so if you had to pick I would try and stick with spots that have a little shelter. Winds will be onshore around 10-15 knots out of the NW by the late afternoon.

Surfwise the summer facing spots and the really good combo breaks are going to be the best bet. The S swell lines will be a bit inconsistent but the windswell will be a bit gutless as well but if you can find a little sandbar then you might get a away with a little more pop out of the combo. Overall bring the smaller Wave will just be b able to pick off a few more of the fun ones while waiting for the bigger sets.

Here are the tides…I will try and get back to a more normal schedule soon…just as soon as I catch the antelope.

07/26/2010 Monday
04:34AM LDT -0.5 L
10:49AM LDT 4.0 H
03:56PM LDT 1.9 L
09:53PM LDT 5.7 H

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Exciting isn't hardly the word I would choose.

Hey Gang…I am sure that you have noticed that my updates have been a little spotty the last few days.
Rest assured that this is pretty normal…right about now I start to slide into my slacker/lazy/summer mode that creeps in when the weather gets nice, and we see a few of our Southern Hemi storms sneak in some playful waves to our exposed spots. And if that wasn’t enough…my beautiful wife is off work over the summer…(she is a teacher and has one of those awesome “summer off” teacher schedules)…so she gets to find all sorts of nice ways to distract me from my forecasts. (Get your minds out of the gutters…), it is usually things like fix the doorbell, the garbage disposal smells funny, get off the computer and do some chores .

And since she is home for the summer…so is my army of Clone Troopers.

These troopers like to invade what is normally called my “office” but it now referred to as “happy fun land”. And apparently even after working in Happy Fun Land for YEARS…I have still managed to miss the most popular ride. (The riding of my (140lbs) bullmastiff puppy is the number #2 two ride in Happy Fun Land). Anyway my boys/clones like to call the #1 bestest ride in the park “the Awesome Spaztacular Adventure” but the official name of the ride is called “lets drive daddy insane”… and if you hadn’t guessed, I get to ride that one a lot. None of which is helping me get the forecasts get done on time.

OK that being said…there is another reason I have been lagging on the forecast s, it has been because I have been working on a bigger/better/more bad-ass website, and that when we release these new tool sets my little forecast will get a major overall and it should help you guys score even more surf.

It won’t change all that much…there are still going to be plenty of my awesome drawings…you know…the ones of fish and unicorns racing each other over the rainbow only to have the winner eaten by a dolphin. OH and it will still be FREE…no subscription nonsense.

I am stoked on what we have heading your way….hopefully you guys will dig it as well.

This quote always seems to creep back into my thought process when I am working on the new site…

Randal Graves: [talking about the second Death Star] A construction job of that magnitude would require a helluva lot more manpower than the Imperial army had to offer. I'll bet there were independent contractors working on that thing: plumbers, aluminum siders, roofers.
Dante Hicks: Not just Imperials, is what you're getting at...
Randal Graves: Exactly. In order to get it built quickly and quietly they'd hire anybody who could do the job. Do you think the average storm trooper knows how to install a toilet main? All they know is killing and white uniforms.
Dante Hicks: All right, so even if independent contractors are working on the Death Star, why are you uneasy with its destruction?
Randal Graves: All those innocent contractors hired to do a job were killed - casualties of a war they had nothing to do with. [notices Dante's confusion]
Randal Graves: All right, look-you're a roofer, and some juicy government contract comes your way; you got the wife and kids and the two-story in suburbia - this is a government contract, which means all sorts of benefits. All of a sudden these left-wing militants blast you with lasers and wipe out everyone within a three-mile radius. You didn't ask for that. You have no personal politics. You're just trying to scrape out a living.

Not sure why I keep thinking about it...maybe it is all the contractors we are using to help develop. Good thing I don't own a partially opporational battle-station.

Anyway…sorry about the long rambling post…I meant to say that the some of the bigger pieces/posts…like the “long-range” forecasts and the alerts are going to take a little hiatus. In fact I am actually heading out on a vacation for a few myself (non-surf related unfortunately)…but when things start coming up to full strength I hope you will be both stoked and impressed by the stuff we have built. I will do my best to keep the update schedule as close as normal …it the meantime I hope that the weather is nice and that there are some playful/solid waves until I get back.



Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 7/19/2010

Forecast Overview
- New SSW-SW swell fills in and peaks on Tuesday…slight eddy hampers shape.
- S-SW swell holds on Wednesday while winds start to clean up.
- The S-SW swell continues to slowly fade while conditions improve…winds look clean in the morning.
- Friday starts with leftovers but a new S-swell (180-190) begins to arrive through the afternoon.
- S swell peaks through Saturday…winds and weather will continue to improve as a new ridge moves into the region.
- S swell fades slowly on Sunday and continues a slow drop through the beginning of next week.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (New S-SW swell starts to peak as the eddy lingers)
The new S-SW swell (190-215) fills in throughout the day, mixing with some leftover S-SW Southern Hemi energy, and some small local WNW-NW windswell. Most S facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent shoulder-head high+ waves hitting by the afternoon. Look for some overhead sets sneaking in as the swell peaks later in the day. The S-SW facing standout breaks, mostly in southern OC and at a few of the other good SSW-SW breaks, will be running more consistently in the shoulder-overhead range with some inconsistent sets going a couple of feet overhead by sundown. Winds/Weather: Slight eddy flow will continue to stick around on Tuesday. Winds will be light/variable to light/onshore from Santa Barbara through LA. Light/southerly winds, mostly below 5-knots, will pick up through Orange County and San Diego during the morning. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-15 knots to develop through the afternoon.

Wednesday – (S-SW swell peaks and the winds lighten up a touch)
Wednesday looks like a surf day if you are close to a S-SW facing spot (or don’t mind driving to one). The S-SW swell (190-210) will be peaking through the morning and will continue to hold some solid surf throughout the day. Average S facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high+ sets hitting during the lower tides. The standout S-SW facing spots, mostly through Orange County and parts of San Diego, will have more shoulder-head high+ sets with sets still going a couple of feet overhead through the low-tide in the morning. While the bigger sets start to trail off through the afternoon expect some decent sized surf to hold at the exposed spots throughout the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Winds look light on Wednesday with mostly light and variable to light/onshore flow setting up for the morning. Even the most exposed/wind-sensitive spots will have morning winds below the 5-knot range for the morning. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-15+ knots through the afternoon.

Thursday - (Slow fade on the S-SW swell but weather continues to improve)
The S-SW swell (185-210) will start to slowly fade on Thursday but thanks to the storm hanging around our swell window (like one of those awesome house guests) there will be plenty of energy still hanging onto the backside of this swell. Most S-SW spots will continue to see chest-shoulder high surf…with a couple of larger waves still ninja-ing occasionally through the lower tides in the morning. The standout S facing spots will continue to see fairly consistent chest-shoulder high surf with head high sets and even a few waves still breaking the overhead mark on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The winds are looking fairly light for Thursday morning…lots of light/variable winds for most areas and a few pockets of light onshore flow at the normally wind-sensitive breaks. Look for building W-WNW winds around 10-15 knots to slip back in after lunch and eventually peak around mid-afternoon and on into the evening.

Friday (A slice of S swell for dessert)
Our surf will, at minimum, hold on Friday…and it might even come up a bit as a new, more southerly S swell (180-190) fills in on the tail end of the SSW-SW swell that will be fading out from earlier in the week. There will be a touch of WNW-NW windswell in the water…but it is so small that the Southern Hemi mix will steamroll most of it. Sizewise we can expect chest-shoulder high+ surf for most of the S-SW facing spots…with a few bigger sets at breaks that like the S swell a little better. The standout S facing spots, mostly in North OC (and a few of those other select breaks in the other regions), will have shoulder-head high+ surf with a few sets going overhead+ at the spots that can really focus the S-SSW swell mix. Winds/Weather: Right now the wind models are sort of being little whiny brats and are calling for some variable onshore flow to show through the morning. The funny thing is that the last time they had the same sort of set up the skies went totally clear, the wind dropped off, and we have clean conditions. Let’s cross our fingers and hope that these models are “wrong” like they were last time.


North Pacific
The NPAC is really freaking boring at this point…the high pressure is sitting in about the same place it has for the last few days blah blah blah blah…with some blah and extra-blah blah! It is awesome because blah will go BLAH! And we will get some more blah!

To translate…we will basically get some windswell…sometimes it will be weak, and sometimes it will be less weak. Most of the time it will sort of suck.

South Pacific
The two main swells that we have rolling through the South Pacific are either; Already filling in, or are already on the way and will be filling in later in the week.

As you read in the short-range…the bigger SSW-SW swell is actually filling in on Socal’s beaches this evening and will continue to build overnight, eventually peaking Tuesday evening on into Wednesday.

This one looks good for chest-head high+ for most of the well-exposed SSW-SW facing spots. The standout SW facing spots will have some shoulder-overhead+ sets and a few waves hitting the couple of feet overhead range. These waves will hold strong into Wednesday and then start to trail off slowly (really slowly) on Thursday.

Further out there is another pulse of S-swell (180-200) that arrives right on the heels of the bigger SSW-SW swell. This storm was actually an embedded front that tracked behind the stronger storm…it wasn’t a total slouch in the wind department either, managing to pull together some 40-45 knot winds in the key areas of fetch…even a few pockets of near 50-knots.

Normally a storm like this would produce an “average” maybe even “below average” swell…but since this one got to capitalize on the sea-state generated of the first storm it didn’t have to work as hard to produce a good/playful sized S-swell. It also helps that the storm was in a little better position than the first system…letting it send a less shadowed S-SSW swell (180-190 for Socal) and (190-205 for Central AM/Mexico) from a closer position…all of which helps to drive up the surf.

This new S swell (180-200) will arrive on Friday (July 23) hitting mostly in the afternoon…and then peaking Saturday, holding into early Sunday, and then fading out through the early part of next week. I am expecting the S facing spots to continue to see chest-shoulder high+ surf…with a few head high+ sets at the better-exposed average breaks. The standout S facing spots, mostly in OC, will have shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in. Due to its positioning (and its tracking the behind the first storm)…I expect some more consistency out of this swell along with more rideable waves as the swell-periods drop (compared to the swell further away that would have all the size in the lower-periods decay away before reaching Socal).

Even Further out another set of storms are forecast to push out of the Tasman Sea over the next 4-5 days…and are showing the potential to send more S-SW swell our way. Obviously we have a few more days before these storms actually form…but it looks like chance at more swell arriving in Socal around the first few days of August. It also happens that when I get creative with photoshop I can draw a bad-ass picture of a duck.

Not much happening in the Tropics right now…no new storms are expected to develop for the next couple of days.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Friday, July 23rd, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster

Monday, July 19, 2010

Tuesday’s Surf – S-SW swell on the rise…I think I see the eddy lurking in the bushes

Tuesday will definitely see an increase in surf…but stronger winds in the outer waters will start to creep up, possibly spinning up our coastal eddy enough to add some texture/funkiness to our exposed spots.

Our new S-SW swell (190-215) has been slowly increasing on the buoys throughout the day here on Monday and probably even managed to put a few bigger sets into the select spots before sunset. The stronger part of the swell is starting to arrive right now…check out the buoy list…there are a lot of 18-20 second stuff showing all of a sudden.

You can check out the live version of this list here….

On Tuesday we can expect the S-SW swell (190-215) to start to peak…at this point it looks like the biggest part of the swell will arrive late Tuesday afternoon/evening and then peak overnight into early Wednesday morning. This swell will be mixing with some smaller leftover S-SSW swells, and some fluky WNW-NW windswell. Look for the bigger S-SW swell to fill in through the morning…with the biggest surf arriving later in the day.

Sizewise…the average S-SW facing spots…and a few of the better S exposed combo spots will have some chest-head surf with a few inconsistent overhead sets mixing in. The standout SSW-SW facing spots and the excellent combo spots, mostly in South OC, a few parts of North OC, as well as a few other scattered breaks with some good exposure, will have surf running consistently shoulder-head high+ with some inconsistent sets going a couple of feet overhead. Try and keep in mind that the tides and occasional wind-funkiness will hamper the shape and consistency...the biggest and the best waves will show on the tide push and through the periods with the cleanest conditions.

Winds are look sort of marginal…there is a bit of an eddy, but neither the NWS or the COAMPS wind models are calling for it to be very strong during the morning. If things cool off enough tonight, or we get the high-pressure to move in a little early…then we will have a chance for some lighter winds through the morning…but as it is I would expect at least a little onshore wind and texture. Current forecast models are calling for light/variable to light/onshore flow for breaks in Santa Barbara down through Los Angeles. The same models are showing a bit more of light/variable/southerly flow early…with some increasing eddy texture building in by mid-morning. Most spots will have W-WNW winds around 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

It sure would have been nice to have the sunny skies and light winds to hold long enough for this swell to arrive, but Mother Nature has a pretty sick sense of humor sometimes (like when good sized S swells arrive). With the swell having some size…and the windswell not really having enough pep to break it up…I think that the points and reefs are going to be the best call on Tuesday, most of the beach breaks are going to be pretty lined up as well as see a lovely current to fight against. (or float along with…which is usually how well I do against them). Also, I think we are going to see a little inconsistency on the big sets earlier in the day…but things should fill in as the swell continues to fill in. Expect some good size from this swell to hold overnight into Wednesday.

Here are the tides…happy hunting, let me know if you get any good ones.

07/20/2010 Tuesday
12:36AM LDT 0.3 L
07:00AM LDT 3.1 H
11:09AM LDT 2.4 L
05:48PM LDT 5.6 H

Monday’s Surf – Was that the eddy I felt creeping in sundown and Sunday?

Monday is looking surfable…but like the post-title says…it looks like a bit on an eddy starting to develop, which means we can’t totally count on clean conditions (but at least the warmer water will start to push back into our region).

The new S-SW swell is showing a little bit of long-period energy on the buoys but I am not seeing as much as I would like at this point…

Oh I don’t think the swell is a bust or anything…just that portions of the storm got over estimated by the computer model (and yours truly) and the long-period energy will end up being a little smaller and less consistent.

So for Monday, we are going to have a mix of new SSW-SW swell (190-210), some steady, but smaller, S-SW swells from a couple of weaker storms, and some local NW windswell.

Average breaks are going to be in the knee-waist high range with a few chest high sets sneaking into the average spots that have a little better southerly exposure. The standout S-SW facing spots, and the best combo breaks, will have chest-shoulder high surf with some head high waves mixing in through the morning. Look for the top SSW-SW spots to see more consistent overhead sets to push in through the lower tides in the afternoon.

Winds look OK for the morning, the eddy will be back…so overcast skies and cooler beach temps won’t be all that fun…but the winds to do manageable Most spots will have variable/onshore flow…with winds in the 3-5 knot range. The standout, most protected spots, will see light/variable to light/offshore winds through the morning with the cleanest conditions showing at the spots with some better southerly protecting.

I think that the morning, through almost midmorning ,will be the best call in terms of cleanest conditions, unfortunately the new swell won’t have filled in all that much, but it won’t be flat thanks to plenty of other energy still hanging around from earlier in the weekend. I would try and stick to spots that have some SW exposure, and some protection from the winds…and maybe even think about bringing a board or two that can handle the drained out morning surf…and then the building SW swell and tide that come up in the afternoon.

07/19/2010 Monday
05:14AM LDT 3.0 H
09:53AM LDT 2.0 L
04:47PM LDT 5.4 H

Sunday, July 18, 2010

2010 Billabong Pro J-Bay - Someone ship me there please

I don’t normally post a lot of pro stuff on the blog….but this J-Bay footage is pretty radical…and it makes me pretty freaking jealous that we are stuck in limbo-summer-surf. I love J-bay anyways...but this makes surfing it look off the hook.

Even though the heat along our coast is breaking (and the eddy reforming)...I could sure use a cold, hollow, overhead pointbreak right now…

(Guys on the email list…make sure to click through to see the video. It is definitely worth spending a few minutes watching the interweb video)

Sunday morning mashup - Transworld SURF, More S swell love, and Down The Line Surf Talk Radio

I had been meaning to post a link to my latest Pacific forecastfor the last couple of days but I would end up going to the tranworld SURF website and start watching their model search slide show and then I would uh sort of forget what I was trying to do.

SO I finally managed to put some blinders on and here is the link to the latest forecast update.

Also…you can listen to my radio forecast on Down The Line – Surf Talk Radio…It will be on like in a few minutes (show starts at 8:00 and I usually call in at 8:05 or so).

…but if you miss it you can always listen to it on their podcast, which can be found on their blog

Friday, July 16, 2010

Waves for the Weekend – Nothing huge…but still some good times

Looks like the weekend is going to be a surf weekend…both Saturday and Sunday look playful…but there may be a little more wind getting on things early on Saturday. Sunday will have cleaner conditions.

Our swell will be a mix of S-SW swells (180-215) from the latest in the string of Southern Hemi swells. We will also have a mix of small WNW-NW windswell that pushes in through the background. Late Sunday night a new, long-period S-SW swell starts to arrive but won’t add much new surf before the sun sets.

Sizewise both days will hold around the knee-waist high range a the average spots…the windswell breaks will be a touch smaller while spots that have a little more southern hemi exposure will be more consistent and will possibly have a few bigger chest high sets sneaking through. The standouts, mostly on Sunday, will be in the chest-shoulder high range…wiith a couple of sets getting close to head high (and by head high I mean bigger than Webster and smaller than Shaq). Size and consistency will be a bit better on Sunday.

Winds look ok for both days…Saturday will have a bit more onshore flow…mostly light winds in the morning but with a few areas of texture at the more wind sensitive spots. Sunday looks cleaner…with light wind in the morning, even a couple of spots with some light offshore flow showing super early. Both days can expect onshore flow to build in from the W around 10-15 knots with some stronger gusts pushing through on Saturday.

Overall this should be a decent weekend…there will be waves, the weather will be nice, and the tides are halfway decent during the morning, matching up with the lighter winds (for once!). The long-period forerunners of the bigger SW swell will start to fill on Sunday but even though the energy shows on the buoy there will only be a few spots that will pull in the new energy…so if you are looking for the “big swell” (BIG being a relative term) and larger waves you will have to wait till at least Monday afternoon, but really through Tuesday and Wednesday.

Here are the tides…Have a great weekend!

07/17/2010 Saturday
01:46AM LDT 3.9 H
08:02AM LDT 0.9 L
02:46PM LDT 5.2 H
09:46PM LDT 1.2 L

07/18/2010 Sunday
03:16AM LDT 3.3 H
08:51AM LDT 1.5 L
03:45PM LDT 5.3 H
11:19PM LDT 0.9 L

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 7/15/2010

Forecast Overview
- Playful sized surf continues into Friday.
- A new little pulse of S swell helps to keep the surf going on Saturday.
- Sunday starts off fun with more overlapping energy. New long-period S-SW swell shows on the buoys later in the evening.
- The new S-SW swell starts filling in throughout Monday, starting off slow in the morning but building through the end of the day.
- Tuesday and Wednesday the S-SW peaks with head high surf for most spots, and some overhead+ waves at the standouts.
- Look for the swell to trail off through the end of the week…but a second S swell will keep the surf from fading to much.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (Fun and hot…but with ‘nad freezing water)
On Friday there will be a couple of S-SW swells (180-210) mixing with some local WNW-NW windswell. Most spots will be in the knee-waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets at the better SW exposed spots. The standout S-SW breaks will be in the chest-shoulder high range…with a chance at some shoulder-high+ sets as we move through the tide push during the morning. Winds/Weather: Winds will fairly light in the morning…mostly clean but with a few pockets of onshore texture in a few areas. NW winds in the 10-15 knot range will move in and peak through the afternoon…but expect some onshore flow to get going around midmorning.

Saturday – (still playful)
The string of minor S and SW swells will continue to push in on Saturday…along with some NW windswell. Most spots will continue to see the knee-waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets at the average SW exposed spots. Chest-shoulder high surf will continue to show at the standout SW breaks. Winds/Weather: Winds will still be pretty light in the morning but there will be a bit more onshore flow getting a start early in the day. Look for building onshore flow by midday and then W-NW winds 10-15+ knots by later in the afternoon.

Sunday - (more fun waves with some long-period energy sneaking in late)
The mix of playful Southern Hemi swells continues on Sunday (they are never-ending!). Look for more knee-waist high+ surf at the average spots and more waist-shoulder surf at the standouts…with a chance for some rare bigger sets hitting late in the day. Winds/Weather: Overall wind looks lighter on Sunday…expect clean conditions through the early morning with a few areas of light texture (maybe even light offshore texture in a few lucky spots). WNW winds 10-15+ knots will ramp up again in the afternoon.

Monday - (a slow start but building S-SW swell fills in through the afternoon)
The new S-SW swell (190-210) will be showing some new, but still long-period surf through the morning. It looks like the bigger waves will be inconsistent and a bit selective on which spots will see much size through the first part of the day. I am still expecting chest-shoulder high sets for the average S-SW facing breaks and some head high+ sets hitting the standout spots. We will have some more consistent overhead surf by the afternoon. This new round of swell will peak with bigger and more consistent surf on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable to light/offshore winds through the morning and then WNW winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.


North Pacific
Pretty darn slow in the NPAC…high-pressure is locking down most of the storm track and any storm activity that is showing is weak and unorganized. No real swell, except for on and off local windswell is expected.

South Pacific
The SPAC is kick a little more ass this week…late last weekend we had another good sized storm develop down in the Southern Ocean between Tahiti and Chile. This system pulled together with some 40-50 knot winds with some gusts hitting the 60-65 knot range. This bad-boy kicked out a good sized SSW-SW swell (190-215) that will be arriving through Monday (July 19) and then peaking Tuesday and Wednesday (July 20-21).

This SSW-SW swell looks good for shoulder-head high surf for most of the S-SW facing spots in Socal (expect for a few shadowed ones) along with some overhead+ surf at the standouts…probably up to a couple of feet overhead on the better tides. A few select spots that can focus these types of swells will have some bigger waves. If you are interested in taking a closer look at this storm, or want to know how it will hit Central America and Mainland Mexico, you can check out the Swell Alert that I sent out a couple of days ago.

Further out there is a second storm following close behind this first system…and we can expect it to tack on a fun S swell (180-200) on the tail end of the bigger SSW-SW as it fades away. Basically this new swell will arrive on Saturday-Sunday (July 24-25) and will keep the surf in the chest-shoulder high+ range at the average spots along with a few overhead sets still showing at the standout breaks.

Even Further Out the South Pacific sort of quiets down…well at least lets a bit of a gap form between this system and the next…it basically means that we will have a few days of weaker surf, but we won’t go totally flat. I am seeing more strong storm activity starting to brew push out from under Australia on the long-range charts…so we will probably see more swell heading our way for the beginning of August.

We have a new tropical storm brewing up in our tropics…it is currently tropical depression 6…or TD-06e. But it looks like it will become a small Tropical Storm by the afternoon on Friday.

While this one will be in our swell window it isn’t very big and it will just barely become a tropical storm. At this point I am not expecting much swell from it…and what it does send will probably get lost in the stronger Southern Hemi swell.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, July 19th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster