Southern California Long Range Forecast 09/09/10

Finally the small slop is going to take a break…conditions are going to start cleaning up and a new S swell will start to arrive over the weekend. It won’t be much, but it will be an improvement over the last few days (or weeks depending on where you live). After this S swell fades a much stronger S-SW swell (180-210) starts to arrive later next week and it looks like plenty more on tap after it rolls through…maybe now Fall can actually start!

Get the full forecast here or navigate to it from www.solspot.com



You can also check out how the swell, wind, and tides, effects the different Southern California regions...(click on each one to get a sub-regional forecast...and if you click one of the "surf break" links, you can even get spot-specific winds and weather for each break)...Santa Barbara, Ventura, North LA, the South Bay, North Orange County, South Orange County, North San Diego, South San Diego.

Southern California Long-Range Forecast 09/06/10

Holy weaksauce Batman! Most of this week is going to be weak and textured…the combo of eddy and small S-SW swells will keep the surf in the “marginal” range through Thursday. Fortunately the weather and the swell start to slowly improve on Friday and will continue to get better through the weekend. Long-range is looking A LOT BETTER thanks to a re-energized South Pacific and a series of SSW-SW swells that are heading our way for the middle of September (and if the following storms can live up to the forecast model we would likely see at minimum playful swell holding onto decent size almost to the end of the month). Make sure to go to www.solspot.com to read the full forecast

Southern California Long Range Surf Forecast 08/09/10

Adam’s Long-Range Forecast - The hodgepodge of overlapping S-SW swells and weak local windswell will continue to push through this week, sending in mostly small surf that is even more tide (and wind) sensitive than usual. Fortunately there are a few windows for waves and morning winds seem pretty manageable for the next few days. Looks like a good week to break out the small-wave boards and vintage death-logs.



To get the whole forecast head on over to www.solspot.com

or go straight to the forecast here

Adam's Long Range Surf Forecast

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 8/05/2010

Adam’s Long-Range Forecast - We will have a combo of mostly light winds, morning overcast skies (sunny afternoons), and some inconsistent but rideable SW swell hitting over the weekend. Look for the SW energy to creep up more on Friday, hold Saturday, and then turn more southerly and fade (while we get a little more windswell) on Sunday. Small, mostly leftover surf will be on tap for the first few days of next week.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (A little more SW swell)
More SW swell (200-220) strengthens in on Friday and mixes with some weak local windswell and background Southern Hemi leftovers. Most S-SW facing spots will be in the knee high range withs inconsistent sets. The standout SW facing breaks…mostly through South OC…see some waist-chest high waves and inconsistent shoulder high sets…maybe even a touch bigger on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Overcast and slightly eddyish in the morning…look for light and variable winds for most areas with a touch of onshore S-SW winds at the really exposed spots. Overall it should be clean, but watch for areas of onshore texture at spots sensitive to the southerly winds.



Saturday – (SW energy continues to slip through )
The SW energy (200-215) turns a little more southerly and holds on Saturday while the weak S/WNW-NW background mix continues to flitter around in the background. Most spots will be in the knee high range with some waist high+ sets at the better S facing spots during the lower tides. The standout SW facing spots, again around South OC/North SD, will have some chest-shoulder high waves on the right tides. Winds/Weather: Overcast skies and slight eddy flow will be on tap for Saturday. Look for mostly light and variable winds, with a touch of southerly flow in the unlucky spots. W winds hit around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.



Sunday - (S-SW swell fades but gets a little more windswell)
The size drops a bit more on Sunday but the slightly more southerly S-SW swell (195-210) and slightly more energetic WNW-NW windswell will make it feel more surfable in more areas which is a nice thing considering there isn’t much swell in the water. Mostly the average spots hold in the knee high range while the standout S-SW facing spots see some waist-chest high sets on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds will be on tap in the morning with some small pockets of texture, mostly in South SD. Look for winds below 5-knots for all areas. Overcast skies burn off around midday and winds go W onshore around 10-14 knots.



Monday (mostly leftovers)
The S-SW swell mix backs down on Monday and we don’t see much to replace it. Most spots will back down into the ankle-knee high range with some rare thigh high sets at the more S facing beaches. Standout spots, mostly in OC and at the combo spots in SD, see some waist-chest high sets. Whooohoooo! Winds/Weather: About the same as Sunday, but with more trash on the beach. Light and variable winds will be on tap in the morning with some small pockets of texture, mostly in South SD. Look for winds below 5-knots for all areas. Overcast skies burn off around midday and winds go W onshore around 10-14 knots.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Super quiet…even the windswell is boring….just look at the this long-range map…the computer is practically asleep.



South Pacific
Like mentioned in the last forecast the SPAC got pretty pancaked for about 4-5 days…which, unfortunately, leaves us sort of in a gap between any real sort of significant swell. There will be one little SW pulse that hits over the weekend, hitting best in South OC, but for most areas it will be a bit shadowed by the nearshore islands.



The rest of the week doesn’t look much better…just sort of decent winds and minor pulses from the S-SW thanks to weak areas of fetch than still manage to develop despite the high-pressure pancake (man I am getting hungry talking about pancakes). Check out these two buoy forecasts (derived from wavewatchIII). The first is the Dana Point Buoy, which is probably the most relevant for the US Open this weekend…doesn’t get me real fired up to watch the finals.



The second is from the O-side buoy…this is probably the most exposed nearshore buoy that can highlight the small SW swell that hits over the weekend…as you can see there is a little pick-up in size as you get out from the Catalina and San Clemente Island Shadow.



Further out there is a little storm forming up in our window in about 3-4 days that will push a chest-shoulder S-SW swell (190-210) that would arrive around August 14-15.



Even Further out There is a better looking storm waaaay out on the charts…giving us at least an outside chance at some more SSW-SW swell for around August 19-20 or so. I like this storm more than the one possibly setting up swell for the middle of August…it looks like it has a bit more energy bleeding in from the tropics that could give the whole system a bit more life (and eventual swell size).

Tropics
We got a brand new Tropical Depression that formed up today…TD-07e had been intensifying most of the day and finally reached TD strength later in the afternoon.



Current forecasts have it becoming named storm Estelle over the next 24 hours taking a slow track toward Socorro Island over the next several days…possibly reaching close to hurricane strength. This storm is still a ways away from sending any sort of surf to Socal…but there is a chance at some waves heading toward Baja Sur and parts of Mainland Mexico...though it depends on how the storm behaves.



the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, August 9, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 8/02/2010

Forecast Overview
- Overlapping mixes of S and SW energy continue to mix with weak windswell and decent conditions for the next few days (well at least decent morning conditions).
- New SSW-SW swell hits later this week but while it will add a little size to exposed spots, the spots like HB (and the US OPEN), won’t get much new energy fight through the various swell shadows.
- Long-range is a little dull, but now that I am back in action the surf will get better :)

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (playful summer day)
We will have a little mix of Southern Hemi energy S-SW swell (180-200) and some weak local windswell. Most spots will be in the knee-waist high range. The standout S-SW facing breaks see some chest-shoulder high sets that sneak through on occasion, during the lowers tides (Kind of like they are too cool for school or something). None of the energy looks all that big or consistent so I think you might have more fun on a bigger board that will let you slip into a few of the smaller softer ones. Winds/Weather: Summer winds are suddenly back to a semi-normal pattern (it might or might not have anything to do with the eddy death-ray that I ordered in the back of Evil Scientist magazine…man shipping UPS is a bitch!...and I may or may not have built them to look like I giant pair of boobs).



Winds will be light and variable winds through the morning with a few light pockets of weak onshore texture showing in a few of the more exposed areas. Look for the standard onshore 10-15 W-WNW winds to creep in through the afternoon…with lighter flow around you lucky bastards that have high-cliffs and stuff to knock down the wind.





Wednesday – (still playful)
Our swell mix gets a little more mix-y on Wednesday…a touch more WNW-NW windswell moves in along with a bit more SSW-SW swell to add into the already hanging around S-SW swells (180-210). Not expecting much change in the surf. Still plenty of mellow knee-waist high summer waves at the S-SW facing breaks…maybe a few knee high softies at the windswell spots. Standout S-SW facing breaks will be more in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets on the better tides and sandbars. Winds/Weather: Look for overcast skies and light/variable winds on tap for the morning. Most spots will have flow below 2-3 knots but there may be a few more onshore pockets at the really wind open beaches. The NW winds pick up into the 10-15 knot range by the afternoon.





Thursday - (summer spinners)
The mix of overlapping, yet fairly weak, S-SW swells (180-210) and local NW windswell will continue to push in rideable, semi-playful, but mostly small surf. Look for lots of knee high surf at the average S and WNW facing breaks. The standout S-SW facing spots, mostly through South OC and parts of North SD, will have some waist-chest high surf, and probably a chest-shoulder high set peaking through on the dropping tide. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions will be on tap for the morning…sort of overcast and slightly textured…but smooth enough, particularly at the protected breaks, to have some fun. Look for summer WNW-NW winds 10-15 knots.



Friday - (a touch more SW energy…but nothing to drop your pants for)
More S-SW swell (190-220) will mix with some S-SW leftovers and some local windswell. Most of the average S facing breaks will continue to see knee high waves with some occasional waist high sets (more consistently at those SW exposed spots). The standout SSW-SW spots, mostly through Mid-South OC and North SD, will have some inconsistent waist-chest high surf with some really inconsistent chest-shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable to light/offshore winds through the morning and then WNW winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific

This chart…the one right below…is how summer high-pressure says F.U. to the North Pacific Storm Track.



South Pacific
The next few days look ok…nothing big…but we will see a bit of semi-playful surf at the top spots as the these overlapping pulses push in throughout the week.



The trend of small but rideable surf will continue for most of the week with a slightly stronger pulse of SSW-SW swell (195-215) that arrives and peaks on Friday and then struggles to hold on throug the weekend. I feel sort of bummed for the US Open contest…if the even was down at this other point/break/venue that they occasionally take over, they might have had a pretty fun contest. As it is…the SSW-SW swell for the weekend isn’t a good one for HB. First off the storm was waaaaaaay the hell away from Socal, which just decays the swell more and more the further away you get. Next the majority of the swell had to pass through the South Pacific Island Shadow which likes to much on the bones of decaying SW swells. Then finally once the swell gets to Socal…San Clemente Island and Catalina Island…like to block the last bit of energy that dares to venture too SW’erly in direction. Basically any part of the swell that gets over 205-210 in swell direction startst to get shadowed. So if you couldn’t tell I am not all that pumped up on the contests “swell”…but it is always funny to watch the meltdown that the US Open causes in HB.



Long-range…not looking so good. Lots of pancaking of our storm track, where high-pressures that look like sumo wrestlers just flatten the storm track…leaving the energy going very west-to-east…and not the south-to-north that we need. At this point I am seeing some weak action down in the SPAC...pushing small S-SW swells into Socal through around the middle of August. Things do sort of threaten to liven up on the extremely long-range charts, but lets give them a couple of days before we go over an introduce ourselves.

Tropics
Not much but a weak disturbance down to the SE of Cabo…any significant strengthening isn’t expected at this point…if you couldn’t tell by looking at the little yellow circle, there is only a 10% chance of this developing much beyond what it is now.



the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, August 5th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 7/19/2010

Forecast Overview
- New SSW-SW swell fills in and peaks on Tuesday…slight eddy hampers shape.
- S-SW swell holds on Wednesday while winds start to clean up.
- The S-SW swell continues to slowly fade while conditions improve…winds look clean in the morning.
- Friday starts with leftovers but a new S-swell (180-190) begins to arrive through the afternoon.
- S swell peaks through Saturday…winds and weather will continue to improve as a new ridge moves into the region.
- S swell fades slowly on Sunday and continues a slow drop through the beginning of next week.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (New S-SW swell starts to peak as the eddy lingers)
The new S-SW swell (190-215) fills in throughout the day, mixing with some leftover S-SW Southern Hemi energy, and some small local WNW-NW windswell. Most S facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent shoulder-head high+ waves hitting by the afternoon. Look for some overhead sets sneaking in as the swell peaks later in the day. The S-SW facing standout breaks, mostly in southern OC and at a few of the other good SSW-SW breaks, will be running more consistently in the shoulder-overhead range with some inconsistent sets going a couple of feet overhead by sundown. Winds/Weather: Slight eddy flow will continue to stick around on Tuesday. Winds will be light/variable to light/onshore from Santa Barbara through LA. Light/southerly winds, mostly below 5-knots, will pick up through Orange County and San Diego during the morning. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-15 knots to develop through the afternoon.



Wednesday – (S-SW swell peaks and the winds lighten up a touch)
Wednesday looks like a surf day if you are close to a S-SW facing spot (or don’t mind driving to one). The S-SW swell (190-210) will be peaking through the morning and will continue to hold some solid surf throughout the day. Average S facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high+ sets hitting during the lower tides. The standout S-SW facing spots, mostly through Orange County and parts of San Diego, will have more shoulder-head high+ sets with sets still going a couple of feet overhead through the low-tide in the morning. While the bigger sets start to trail off through the afternoon expect some decent sized surf to hold at the exposed spots throughout the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Winds look light on Wednesday with mostly light and variable to light/onshore flow setting up for the morning. Even the most exposed/wind-sensitive spots will have morning winds below the 5-knot range for the morning. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-15+ knots through the afternoon.



Thursday - (Slow fade on the S-SW swell but weather continues to improve)
The S-SW swell (185-210) will start to slowly fade on Thursday but thanks to the storm hanging around our swell window (like one of those awesome house guests) there will be plenty of energy still hanging onto the backside of this swell. Most S-SW spots will continue to see chest-shoulder high surf…with a couple of larger waves still ninja-ing occasionally through the lower tides in the morning. The standout S facing spots will continue to see fairly consistent chest-shoulder high surf with head high sets and even a few waves still breaking the overhead mark on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The winds are looking fairly light for Thursday morning…lots of light/variable winds for most areas and a few pockets of light onshore flow at the normally wind-sensitive breaks. Look for building W-WNW winds around 10-15 knots to slip back in after lunch and eventually peak around mid-afternoon and on into the evening.



Friday (A slice of S swell for dessert)
Our surf will, at minimum, hold on Friday…and it might even come up a bit as a new, more southerly S swell (180-190) fills in on the tail end of the SSW-SW swell that will be fading out from earlier in the week. There will be a touch of WNW-NW windswell in the water…but it is so small that the Southern Hemi mix will steamroll most of it. Sizewise we can expect chest-shoulder high+ surf for most of the S-SW facing spots…with a few bigger sets at breaks that like the S swell a little better. The standout S facing spots, mostly in North OC (and a few of those other select breaks in the other regions), will have shoulder-head high+ surf with a few sets going overhead+ at the spots that can really focus the S-SSW swell mix. Winds/Weather: Right now the wind models are sort of being little whiny brats and are calling for some variable onshore flow to show through the morning. The funny thing is that the last time they had the same sort of set up the skies went totally clear, the wind dropped off, and we have clean conditions. Let’s cross our fingers and hope that these models are “wrong” like they were last time.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The NPAC is really freaking boring at this point…the high pressure is sitting in about the same place it has for the last few days blah blah blah blah…with some blah and extra-blah blah! It is awesome because blah will go BLAH! And we will get some more blah!



To translate…we will basically get some windswell…sometimes it will be weak, and sometimes it will be less weak. Most of the time it will sort of suck.

South Pacific
The two main swells that we have rolling through the South Pacific are either; Already filling in, or are already on the way and will be filling in later in the week.

As you read in the short-range…the bigger SSW-SW swell is actually filling in on Socal’s beaches this evening and will continue to build overnight, eventually peaking Tuesday evening on into Wednesday.



This one looks good for chest-head high+ for most of the well-exposed SSW-SW facing spots. The standout SW facing spots will have some shoulder-overhead+ sets and a few waves hitting the couple of feet overhead range. These waves will hold strong into Wednesday and then start to trail off slowly (really slowly) on Thursday.

Further out there is another pulse of S-swell (180-200) that arrives right on the heels of the bigger SSW-SW swell. This storm was actually an embedded front that tracked behind the stronger storm…it wasn’t a total slouch in the wind department either, managing to pull together some 40-45 knot winds in the key areas of fetch…even a few pockets of near 50-knots.



Normally a storm like this would produce an “average” maybe even “below average” swell…but since this one got to capitalize on the sea-state generated of the first storm it didn’t have to work as hard to produce a good/playful sized S-swell. It also helps that the storm was in a little better position than the first system…letting it send a less shadowed S-SSW swell (180-190 for Socal) and (190-205 for Central AM/Mexico) from a closer position…all of which helps to drive up the surf.



This new S swell (180-200) will arrive on Friday (July 23) hitting mostly in the afternoon…and then peaking Saturday, holding into early Sunday, and then fading out through the early part of next week. I am expecting the S facing spots to continue to see chest-shoulder high+ surf…with a few head high+ sets at the better-exposed average breaks. The standout S facing spots, mostly in OC, will have shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in. Due to its positioning (and its tracking the behind the first storm)…I expect some more consistency out of this swell along with more rideable waves as the swell-periods drop (compared to the swell further away that would have all the size in the lower-periods decay away before reaching Socal).

Even Further out another set of storms are forecast to push out of the Tasman Sea over the next 4-5 days…and are showing the potential to send more S-SW swell our way. Obviously we have a few more days before these storms actually form…but it looks like chance at more swell arriving in Socal around the first few days of August. It also happens that when I get creative with photoshop I can draw a bad-ass picture of a duck.



Tropics
Not much happening in the Tropics right now…no new storms are expected to develop for the next couple of days.



the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Friday, July 23rd, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 7/15/2010

Forecast Overview
- Playful sized surf continues into Friday.
- A new little pulse of S swell helps to keep the surf going on Saturday.
- Sunday starts off fun with more overlapping energy. New long-period S-SW swell shows on the buoys later in the evening.
- The new S-SW swell starts filling in throughout Monday, starting off slow in the morning but building through the end of the day.
- Tuesday and Wednesday the S-SW peaks with head high surf for most spots, and some overhead+ waves at the standouts.
- Look for the swell to trail off through the end of the week…but a second S swell will keep the surf from fading to much.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (Fun and hot…but with ‘nad freezing water)
On Friday there will be a couple of S-SW swells (180-210) mixing with some local WNW-NW windswell. Most spots will be in the knee-waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets at the better SW exposed spots. The standout S-SW breaks will be in the chest-shoulder high range…with a chance at some shoulder-high+ sets as we move through the tide push during the morning. Winds/Weather: Winds will fairly light in the morning…mostly clean but with a few pockets of onshore texture in a few areas. NW winds in the 10-15 knot range will move in and peak through the afternoon…but expect some onshore flow to get going around midmorning.



Saturday – (still playful)
The string of minor S and SW swells will continue to push in on Saturday…along with some NW windswell. Most spots will continue to see the knee-waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets at the average SW exposed spots. Chest-shoulder high surf will continue to show at the standout SW breaks. Winds/Weather: Winds will still be pretty light in the morning but there will be a bit more onshore flow getting a start early in the day. Look for building onshore flow by midday and then W-NW winds 10-15+ knots by later in the afternoon.



Sunday - (more fun waves with some long-period energy sneaking in late)
The mix of playful Southern Hemi swells continues on Sunday (they are never-ending!). Look for more knee-waist high+ surf at the average spots and more waist-shoulder surf at the standouts…with a chance for some rare bigger sets hitting late in the day. Winds/Weather: Overall wind looks lighter on Sunday…expect clean conditions through the early morning with a few areas of light texture (maybe even light offshore texture in a few lucky spots). WNW winds 10-15+ knots will ramp up again in the afternoon.



Monday - (a slow start but building S-SW swell fills in through the afternoon)
The new S-SW swell (190-210) will be showing some new, but still long-period surf through the morning. It looks like the bigger waves will be inconsistent and a bit selective on which spots will see much size through the first part of the day. I am still expecting chest-shoulder high sets for the average S-SW facing breaks and some head high+ sets hitting the standout spots. We will have some more consistent overhead surf by the afternoon. This new round of swell will peak with bigger and more consistent surf on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable to light/offshore winds through the morning and then WNW winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Pretty darn slow in the NPAC…high-pressure is locking down most of the storm track and any storm activity that is showing is weak and unorganized. No real swell, except for on and off local windswell is expected.



South Pacific
The SPAC is kick a little more ass this week…late last weekend we had another good sized storm develop down in the Southern Ocean between Tahiti and Chile. This system pulled together with some 40-50 knot winds with some gusts hitting the 60-65 knot range. This bad-boy kicked out a good sized SSW-SW swell (190-215) that will be arriving through Monday (July 19) and then peaking Tuesday and Wednesday (July 20-21).



This SSW-SW swell looks good for shoulder-head high surf for most of the S-SW facing spots in Socal (expect for a few shadowed ones) along with some overhead+ surf at the standouts…probably up to a couple of feet overhead on the better tides. A few select spots that can focus these types of swells will have some bigger waves. If you are interested in taking a closer look at this storm, or want to know how it will hit Central America and Mainland Mexico, you can check out the Swell Alert that I sent out a couple of days ago.



Further out there is a second storm following close behind this first system…and we can expect it to tack on a fun S swell (180-200) on the tail end of the bigger SSW-SW as it fades away. Basically this new swell will arrive on Saturday-Sunday (July 24-25) and will keep the surf in the chest-shoulder high+ range at the average spots along with a few overhead sets still showing at the standout breaks.



Even Further Out the South Pacific sort of quiets down…well at least lets a bit of a gap form between this system and the next…it basically means that we will have a few days of weaker surf, but we won’t go totally flat. I am seeing more strong storm activity starting to brew push out from under Australia on the long-range charts…so we will probably see more swell heading our way for the beginning of August.

Tropics
We have a new tropical storm brewing up in our tropics…it is currently tropical depression 6…or TD-06e. But it looks like it will become a small Tropical Storm by the afternoon on Friday.



While this one will be in our swell window it isn’t very big and it will just barely become a tropical storm. At this point I am not expecting much swell from it…and what it does send will probably get lost in the stronger Southern Hemi swell.



the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, July 19th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 7/08/2010

Forecast Overview
- Look for fugly conditions and fading S swell on Friday.
- Junky winds and leftover, almost too small, swell mix for Saturday
- Sunday the crap winds continue while we see a new mix of S and SW swells as well as a bit of local windswell
- Monday the S and SW swells fill in a touch more and winds start to back down.
- Tuesday and Wednesday we will finally have some cleaner conditions and even a little bit of playful surf…(man this seems like a long ways away)
- New storm activity in the South Pacific long-range forecast…looks like more surf heading our way for the last part of July.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (fading away and winds continue to suck…I hate you wind)
The last of the S swell (175-185) will arrive as the energy continues to trail off through Friday. WNW-NW windswell build up slightly in the background but mostly it stays pretty marginal. S facing spots will be in the knee-waist high range with inconsistent waist high+ sets. Standout S facing breaks will still manage some waist-chest high surf on inconsistent sets…along with some rare shoulder-high waves on really inconsistent sets. Look for size and consistency to back down as we move throughout the day. Winds/Weather: The NW winds are forecast to stick around through Friday. Overall we can expect light NW-W winds around 3-5 knots with a couple of pockets hitting 5-7 knots at times through the morning. W winds 10-15+ knots with some stronger gusts.



Saturday – (crappy leftover S swell/windswell mix with more crappy wind)
Just some leftover S swell…a touch of background SW energy and local WNW windswell…oh and craptacular winds. Man we can’t get a break. Surf will be knee high for most S facing spots while the standouts see some inconsistent knee-waist high+ sets. Conditions look like poop though. Winds/Weather: W winds get a jump on things early…blowing around 4-5 knots for the morning, which isn’t a lot…but the winds will have been blowing that way all night so shape will be pretty sloppy. W winds around 10-15+ return by the late afternoon.



Sunday - (arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgh!)
A new, small, inconsistent SW swell (200-220) will start to pulse up on Sunday mixing with some weak S swell and sloppy WNW-NW windswell. Most spots will continue to see surf in the knee high range with some knee-waist high sets sneaking through. The standout S-SW facing spots, mostly in OC and SD, will have some chest high sets. Shape, thanks to the wind, continues to look like poop. Winds/Weather: Guess what? The W winds are back on Sunday...and it looks even a tad stronger than it has been. Expect onshore W flow around 8-10 knots for the morning and then gusts hitting 15+ knots by the afternoon.



Monday - (holy crap…winds clean up a bit…though it looks cleaner on Tuesday)
The surf increases a bit as the mix of S and SW swell fill in a little more and the WNW-NW windswell increases slightly as well. Look for more knee-waist high surf at the average spots with some waist-chest high surf at the standouts and even a few really inconsistent chest high+ sets on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The real news is that our winds are supposed to improve slightly…not completely glass off or anything (that would be a miracle)…but back down more than they have in a while. For the morning we can expect W-NW winds around 2-3 knots along with some light/variable conditions at spots with some good wind protection. The W-NW winds do pick up through the afternoon hitting around 10-15 knots…but they are supposed to lighten quite a bit overnight and set up cleaner conditions for Tuesday.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Nothing special happening in the NPAC…but there is one little runt of a storm spinning up under the Aleutians that is forecast to set up some extremely steep angled NW swell (295-300) for Socal around the middle of next week.



You can see it getting some reasonable sea-heights going…but the majority of the energy is heading toward Alaska and Canada (eh!)



Socal can expect this swell to move in on Tuesday (July 13) and hold into Wednesday (July 14). It looks like this swell is going to be exclusively for the NW San Diego standouts…and maybe a couple of the really well exposed areas in Ventura and the South Bay. Sizewise it looks like knee-waist high for the average NW spots and some rare chest high sets at the SD standouts. Really it is barely worth talking about…but I threw it in the forecast since there is nothing coming from the NPAC.



South Pacific
The last of the S swell will start to trail off (under bumpy conditions) Friday and Saturday.

Further out…the SPAC was a bit quiet and disorganized after that big storm slammed through, but it did manage to set up some weaker areas of fetch as smaller storms swirled in the wake of the stronger system. These weak fetches will be pushing up some overlapping pulses of S-SW swell as we head into Sunday (July 11th) and then holding through the middle of July. Nothing looks particularly strong or noteworthy…but we can expect some waist-chest high waves at the better exposed spots and even a few inconsistent shoulder high sets at the standouts as these small swells filter through next week.

Even further out there is a decent sized-storm forecast to form down in our SSW-SW swell window in about 3-4 days. At the same time it looks like another tropical system is going to form to the north of New Zealand...



It looks like there is a good shot at a bunch of this tropical energy could bridge over to the bigger/colder storm down closer to Antarctica, which would really increase wind-speeds and kick the storm into a different gear. I don’t think the wavewatchIII wave model is doing a great job showing the increase in intensity on the swell-height images…but I have a feeling this will change in a few days as we get closer to this storm forming.



At this point…if this storm forms…we would be looking at a chest-head high SSW-SW swell heading our way for July 22-23rd…possibly a little bigger at a few of the standout SW spots.

Tropics
I can hear the crickets chirping…”chirp, chirp, chirp, chirp…” yeah I hate that sound too.



the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, July 12th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/