Thursday, August 5, 2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 8/05/2010

Adam’s Long-Range Forecast - We will have a combo of mostly light winds, morning overcast skies (sunny afternoons), and some inconsistent but rideable SW swell hitting over the weekend. Look for the SW energy to creep up more on Friday, hold Saturday, and then turn more southerly and fade (while we get a little more windswell) on Sunday. Small, mostly leftover surf will be on tap for the first few days of next week.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (A little more SW swell)
More SW swell (200-220) strengthens in on Friday and mixes with some weak local windswell and background Southern Hemi leftovers. Most S-SW facing spots will be in the knee high range withs inconsistent sets. The standout SW facing breaks…mostly through South OC…see some waist-chest high waves and inconsistent shoulder high sets…maybe even a touch bigger on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Overcast and slightly eddyish in the morning…look for light and variable winds for most areas with a touch of onshore S-SW winds at the really exposed spots. Overall it should be clean, but watch for areas of onshore texture at spots sensitive to the southerly winds.



Saturday – (SW energy continues to slip through )
The SW energy (200-215) turns a little more southerly and holds on Saturday while the weak S/WNW-NW background mix continues to flitter around in the background. Most spots will be in the knee high range with some waist high+ sets at the better S facing spots during the lower tides. The standout SW facing spots, again around South OC/North SD, will have some chest-shoulder high waves on the right tides. Winds/Weather: Overcast skies and slight eddy flow will be on tap for Saturday. Look for mostly light and variable winds, with a touch of southerly flow in the unlucky spots. W winds hit around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.



Sunday - (S-SW swell fades but gets a little more windswell)
The size drops a bit more on Sunday but the slightly more southerly S-SW swell (195-210) and slightly more energetic WNW-NW windswell will make it feel more surfable in more areas which is a nice thing considering there isn’t much swell in the water. Mostly the average spots hold in the knee high range while the standout S-SW facing spots see some waist-chest high sets on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds will be on tap in the morning with some small pockets of texture, mostly in South SD. Look for winds below 5-knots for all areas. Overcast skies burn off around midday and winds go W onshore around 10-14 knots.



Monday (mostly leftovers)
The S-SW swell mix backs down on Monday and we don’t see much to replace it. Most spots will back down into the ankle-knee high range with some rare thigh high sets at the more S facing beaches. Standout spots, mostly in OC and at the combo spots in SD, see some waist-chest high sets. Whooohoooo! Winds/Weather: About the same as Sunday, but with more trash on the beach. Light and variable winds will be on tap in the morning with some small pockets of texture, mostly in South SD. Look for winds below 5-knots for all areas. Overcast skies burn off around midday and winds go W onshore around 10-14 knots.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Super quiet…even the windswell is boring….just look at the this long-range map…the computer is practically asleep.



South Pacific
Like mentioned in the last forecast the SPAC got pretty pancaked for about 4-5 days…which, unfortunately, leaves us sort of in a gap between any real sort of significant swell. There will be one little SW pulse that hits over the weekend, hitting best in South OC, but for most areas it will be a bit shadowed by the nearshore islands.



The rest of the week doesn’t look much better…just sort of decent winds and minor pulses from the S-SW thanks to weak areas of fetch than still manage to develop despite the high-pressure pancake (man I am getting hungry talking about pancakes). Check out these two buoy forecasts (derived from wavewatchIII). The first is the Dana Point Buoy, which is probably the most relevant for the US Open this weekend…doesn’t get me real fired up to watch the finals.



The second is from the O-side buoy…this is probably the most exposed nearshore buoy that can highlight the small SW swell that hits over the weekend…as you can see there is a little pick-up in size as you get out from the Catalina and San Clemente Island Shadow.



Further out there is a little storm forming up in our window in about 3-4 days that will push a chest-shoulder S-SW swell (190-210) that would arrive around August 14-15.



Even Further out There is a better looking storm waaaay out on the charts…giving us at least an outside chance at some more SSW-SW swell for around August 19-20 or so. I like this storm more than the one possibly setting up swell for the middle of August…it looks like it has a bit more energy bleeding in from the tropics that could give the whole system a bit more life (and eventual swell size).

Tropics
We got a brand new Tropical Depression that formed up today…TD-07e had been intensifying most of the day and finally reached TD strength later in the afternoon.



Current forecasts have it becoming named storm Estelle over the next 24 hours taking a slow track toward Socorro Island over the next several days…possibly reaching close to hurricane strength. This storm is still a ways away from sending any sort of surf to Socal…but there is a chance at some waves heading toward Baja Sur and parts of Mainland Mexico...though it depends on how the storm behaves.



the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, August 9, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

sooooooooooooooo depressing

Anonymous said...

Just watch the US Open. The move by D Reynolds yesterday had Machado speechless.

Anonymous said...

Adam your forecast is very conservative compared to the other major (dumb) forecasting site...i.e Surfline forecast for S.SD on 8/7 is 3-5 w/ occ 6??? Thanks for not blowing crappy swells outta proportion...

HBD said...

And if there is a crappy swell, let's hope the wind doesn't blow it out of proportion...

Anonymous said...

who cares about those lame contests? only assholes surf for money and fame. contests ruin the beauty of what surfing really is

SC Fool said...

Surfline is in cahoots with the
US Open and are trying to hype the contest up with an overly optimistic surf forecast.

Anonymous said...

surfings alot of things to people, to some it is a pass time, others its a lifestyle, and to the contest and progressive style surfer guys its a competitive sport and a way of living, anyway you put it were all obsessed and have a passion for the ocean. Lets not forget that you dirty hippie