Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 8/02/2010

Forecast Overview
- Overlapping mixes of S and SW energy continue to mix with weak windswell and decent conditions for the next few days (well at least decent morning conditions).
- New SSW-SW swell hits later this week but while it will add a little size to exposed spots, the spots like HB (and the US OPEN), won’t get much new energy fight through the various swell shadows.
- Long-range is a little dull, but now that I am back in action the surf will get better :)

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (playful summer day)
We will have a little mix of Southern Hemi energy S-SW swell (180-200) and some weak local windswell. Most spots will be in the knee-waist high range. The standout S-SW facing breaks see some chest-shoulder high sets that sneak through on occasion, during the lowers tides (Kind of like they are too cool for school or something). None of the energy looks all that big or consistent so I think you might have more fun on a bigger board that will let you slip into a few of the smaller softer ones. Winds/Weather: Summer winds are suddenly back to a semi-normal pattern (it might or might not have anything to do with the eddy death-ray that I ordered in the back of Evil Scientist magazine…man shipping UPS is a bitch!...and I may or may not have built them to look like I giant pair of boobs).

Winds will be light and variable winds through the morning with a few light pockets of weak onshore texture showing in a few of the more exposed areas. Look for the standard onshore 10-15 W-WNW winds to creep in through the afternoon…with lighter flow around you lucky bastards that have high-cliffs and stuff to knock down the wind.

Wednesday – (still playful)
Our swell mix gets a little more mix-y on Wednesday…a touch more WNW-NW windswell moves in along with a bit more SSW-SW swell to add into the already hanging around S-SW swells (180-210). Not expecting much change in the surf. Still plenty of mellow knee-waist high summer waves at the S-SW facing breaks…maybe a few knee high softies at the windswell spots. Standout S-SW facing breaks will be more in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets on the better tides and sandbars. Winds/Weather: Look for overcast skies and light/variable winds on tap for the morning. Most spots will have flow below 2-3 knots but there may be a few more onshore pockets at the really wind open beaches. The NW winds pick up into the 10-15 knot range by the afternoon.

Thursday - (summer spinners)
The mix of overlapping, yet fairly weak, S-SW swells (180-210) and local NW windswell will continue to push in rideable, semi-playful, but mostly small surf. Look for lots of knee high surf at the average S and WNW facing breaks. The standout S-SW facing spots, mostly through South OC and parts of North SD, will have some waist-chest high surf, and probably a chest-shoulder high set peaking through on the dropping tide. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions will be on tap for the morning…sort of overcast and slightly textured…but smooth enough, particularly at the protected breaks, to have some fun. Look for summer WNW-NW winds 10-15 knots.

Friday - (a touch more SW energy…but nothing to drop your pants for)
More S-SW swell (190-220) will mix with some S-SW leftovers and some local windswell. Most of the average S facing breaks will continue to see knee high waves with some occasional waist high sets (more consistently at those SW exposed spots). The standout SSW-SW spots, mostly through Mid-South OC and North SD, will have some inconsistent waist-chest high surf with some really inconsistent chest-shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable to light/offshore winds through the morning and then WNW winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.


North Pacific

This chart…the one right below…is how summer high-pressure says F.U. to the North Pacific Storm Track.

South Pacific
The next few days look ok…nothing big…but we will see a bit of semi-playful surf at the top spots as the these overlapping pulses push in throughout the week.

The trend of small but rideable surf will continue for most of the week with a slightly stronger pulse of SSW-SW swell (195-215) that arrives and peaks on Friday and then struggles to hold on throug the weekend. I feel sort of bummed for the US Open contest…if the even was down at this other point/break/venue that they occasionally take over, they might have had a pretty fun contest. As it is…the SSW-SW swell for the weekend isn’t a good one for HB. First off the storm was waaaaaaay the hell away from Socal, which just decays the swell more and more the further away you get. Next the majority of the swell had to pass through the South Pacific Island Shadow which likes to much on the bones of decaying SW swells. Then finally once the swell gets to Socal…San Clemente Island and Catalina Island…like to block the last bit of energy that dares to venture too SW’erly in direction. Basically any part of the swell that gets over 205-210 in swell direction startst to get shadowed. So if you couldn’t tell I am not all that pumped up on the contests “swell”…but it is always funny to watch the meltdown that the US Open causes in HB.

Long-range…not looking so good. Lots of pancaking of our storm track, where high-pressures that look like sumo wrestlers just flatten the storm track…leaving the energy going very west-to-east…and not the south-to-north that we need. At this point I am seeing some weak action down in the SPAC...pushing small S-SW swells into Socal through around the middle of August. Things do sort of threaten to liven up on the extremely long-range charts, but lets give them a couple of days before we go over an introduce ourselves.

Not much but a weak disturbance down to the SE of Cabo…any significant strengthening isn’t expected at this point…if you couldn’t tell by looking at the little yellow circle, there is only a 10% chance of this developing much beyond what it is now.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, August 5th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster


Anonymous said...

Adam, nobody surfs or attends the US Open for surfing. Rather, it's all about the crazy scene.

For some reason, which I still haven't been able to figure out, the int'l surf business is located in CM/HB.

BTW, has anyone seen the new Nike 6.0 no tell motel? LOL

It's all about capturing a few images which are then beamed around the world to the easily impressionable.

We once walked into a Hollister store far away from HB after I told my wife the entire chain has large video screens of the N side action.

Yesterday, my wife mentioned there were some French tourists @ the local TJs picking up some gourmet items. They had US Open tote bags, etc.

If it was just watching
**actual** surfing in crumby conditions, I think there would be a lot of disappointed people.

But the bigger & crazier the contest gets, it satisfies a lot of tourists & visitors that the surf scene is exciting & "happening". LOL

Anonymous said...

For all the time that surfers spend in the water complaining about packed lineups I think it's dope to have one short time of the year to get together and party. Good lookin ladies, tourists spending money to support local business (albeit corporate), good music, and surfers that can shred in anything... sounds like a good time. Cya this weekend.

Anonymous said...

Someone is trying to channel Dora.

HBD said...

I guess it was cold when the Eddy Death Ray structures were built.

Anonymous said...

He's back!!!! I was lost without you! Haha! jk
anyway, thanks for the longrange update. now all we need is warm water, sun, and swell.

Anonymous said...

us open is meant for entertainment and a good time, dont try and get anything more out of it you will greatly disipointed....as it is however its definitely a good time

Anonymous said...

My oldest & his buddies made it into the US Open photo album:

Pier swim

(This is the 3rd time this summer they've swam the pier.)

I have seen tourist stand utterly slack jawed at the sight of 9-11 year olds hitting the water and swimming around the pier.

It's even more of a contrast when they have fat, pasty unhealthy children standing by who are afraid to put a toe in the water.

The whole water/ocean culture scene of HB and other beach towns must be a complete mind blow - especially if you're from the mid-west.

Adam, your kids will be out there in a few summers, no?

Anonymous said...

All you guys ripping the US Open - take it easy. We dont claim to have a great point break but its a fun venue, lots of people and lots to do. And the top surfers rip anything. All you guys ripping the contest probably get out once a week anyway

Anonymous said...

For some of us that have a full adult life with family, kids and a real job, getting out once a week is the best we can do. Something to think about....

For me, I have NO desire to go to the Open-ever. I've lived here all my life and only gone once. That was last year. The surf was hitting the bottom of the pier. My balls were swollen up like apples from a vascetomy (I couldn't surf the swell because of the swell-get it?). There was one current and two former world champs that were paid to surf that day. It took that much to get me to the pier and witness the event. Would I go again? Probably not, unless my kids want to go. Plus, I'm not planning on having a reverse-vasectomy.

HBD said...

Wow, the guy above vasectomy man was right: Guys ripping on the contest probably only surf once a week.

Anonymous said...

props to the jr lifeguards that water is freezing

Anonymous said...

can we get a heater along with the eddy destroyers?