Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 7/19/2010

Forecast Overview
- New SSW-SW swell fills in and peaks on Tuesday…slight eddy hampers shape.
- S-SW swell holds on Wednesday while winds start to clean up.
- The S-SW swell continues to slowly fade while conditions improve…winds look clean in the morning.
- Friday starts with leftovers but a new S-swell (180-190) begins to arrive through the afternoon.
- S swell peaks through Saturday…winds and weather will continue to improve as a new ridge moves into the region.
- S swell fades slowly on Sunday and continues a slow drop through the beginning of next week.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (New S-SW swell starts to peak as the eddy lingers)
The new S-SW swell (190-215) fills in throughout the day, mixing with some leftover S-SW Southern Hemi energy, and some small local WNW-NW windswell. Most S facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent shoulder-head high+ waves hitting by the afternoon. Look for some overhead sets sneaking in as the swell peaks later in the day. The S-SW facing standout breaks, mostly in southern OC and at a few of the other good SSW-SW breaks, will be running more consistently in the shoulder-overhead range with some inconsistent sets going a couple of feet overhead by sundown. Winds/Weather: Slight eddy flow will continue to stick around on Tuesday. Winds will be light/variable to light/onshore from Santa Barbara through LA. Light/southerly winds, mostly below 5-knots, will pick up through Orange County and San Diego during the morning. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-15 knots to develop through the afternoon.



Wednesday – (S-SW swell peaks and the winds lighten up a touch)
Wednesday looks like a surf day if you are close to a S-SW facing spot (or don’t mind driving to one). The S-SW swell (190-210) will be peaking through the morning and will continue to hold some solid surf throughout the day. Average S facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high+ sets hitting during the lower tides. The standout S-SW facing spots, mostly through Orange County and parts of San Diego, will have more shoulder-head high+ sets with sets still going a couple of feet overhead through the low-tide in the morning. While the bigger sets start to trail off through the afternoon expect some decent sized surf to hold at the exposed spots throughout the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Winds look light on Wednesday with mostly light and variable to light/onshore flow setting up for the morning. Even the most exposed/wind-sensitive spots will have morning winds below the 5-knot range for the morning. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-15+ knots through the afternoon.



Thursday - (Slow fade on the S-SW swell but weather continues to improve)
The S-SW swell (185-210) will start to slowly fade on Thursday but thanks to the storm hanging around our swell window (like one of those awesome house guests) there will be plenty of energy still hanging onto the backside of this swell. Most S-SW spots will continue to see chest-shoulder high surf…with a couple of larger waves still ninja-ing occasionally through the lower tides in the morning. The standout S facing spots will continue to see fairly consistent chest-shoulder high surf with head high sets and even a few waves still breaking the overhead mark on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The winds are looking fairly light for Thursday morning…lots of light/variable winds for most areas and a few pockets of light onshore flow at the normally wind-sensitive breaks. Look for building W-WNW winds around 10-15 knots to slip back in after lunch and eventually peak around mid-afternoon and on into the evening.



Friday (A slice of S swell for dessert)
Our surf will, at minimum, hold on Friday…and it might even come up a bit as a new, more southerly S swell (180-190) fills in on the tail end of the SSW-SW swell that will be fading out from earlier in the week. There will be a touch of WNW-NW windswell in the water…but it is so small that the Southern Hemi mix will steamroll most of it. Sizewise we can expect chest-shoulder high+ surf for most of the S-SW facing spots…with a few bigger sets at breaks that like the S swell a little better. The standout S facing spots, mostly in North OC (and a few of those other select breaks in the other regions), will have shoulder-head high+ surf with a few sets going overhead+ at the spots that can really focus the S-SSW swell mix. Winds/Weather: Right now the wind models are sort of being little whiny brats and are calling for some variable onshore flow to show through the morning. The funny thing is that the last time they had the same sort of set up the skies went totally clear, the wind dropped off, and we have clean conditions. Let’s cross our fingers and hope that these models are “wrong” like they were last time.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The NPAC is really freaking boring at this point…the high pressure is sitting in about the same place it has for the last few days blah blah blah blah…with some blah and extra-blah blah! It is awesome because blah will go BLAH! And we will get some more blah!



To translate…we will basically get some windswell…sometimes it will be weak, and sometimes it will be less weak. Most of the time it will sort of suck.

South Pacific
The two main swells that we have rolling through the South Pacific are either; Already filling in, or are already on the way and will be filling in later in the week.

As you read in the short-range…the bigger SSW-SW swell is actually filling in on Socal’s beaches this evening and will continue to build overnight, eventually peaking Tuesday evening on into Wednesday.



This one looks good for chest-head high+ for most of the well-exposed SSW-SW facing spots. The standout SW facing spots will have some shoulder-overhead+ sets and a few waves hitting the couple of feet overhead range. These waves will hold strong into Wednesday and then start to trail off slowly (really slowly) on Thursday.

Further out there is another pulse of S-swell (180-200) that arrives right on the heels of the bigger SSW-SW swell. This storm was actually an embedded front that tracked behind the stronger storm…it wasn’t a total slouch in the wind department either, managing to pull together some 40-45 knot winds in the key areas of fetch…even a few pockets of near 50-knots.



Normally a storm like this would produce an “average” maybe even “below average” swell…but since this one got to capitalize on the sea-state generated of the first storm it didn’t have to work as hard to produce a good/playful sized S-swell. It also helps that the storm was in a little better position than the first system…letting it send a less shadowed S-SSW swell (180-190 for Socal) and (190-205 for Central AM/Mexico) from a closer position…all of which helps to drive up the surf.



This new S swell (180-200) will arrive on Friday (July 23) hitting mostly in the afternoon…and then peaking Saturday, holding into early Sunday, and then fading out through the early part of next week. I am expecting the S facing spots to continue to see chest-shoulder high+ surf…with a few head high+ sets at the better-exposed average breaks. The standout S facing spots, mostly in OC, will have shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in. Due to its positioning (and its tracking the behind the first storm)…I expect some more consistency out of this swell along with more rideable waves as the swell-periods drop (compared to the swell further away that would have all the size in the lower-periods decay away before reaching Socal).

Even Further out another set of storms are forecast to push out of the Tasman Sea over the next 4-5 days…and are showing the potential to send more S-SW swell our way. Obviously we have a few more days before these storms actually form…but it looks like chance at more swell arriving in Socal around the first few days of August. It also happens that when I get creative with photoshop I can draw a bad-ass picture of a duck.



Tropics
Not much happening in the Tropics right now…no new storms are expected to develop for the next couple of days.



the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Friday, July 23rd, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 5/13/2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 5/13/2010

Forecast Overview
Solid S swell will fill in on Friday setting up overhead surf for the well exposed spots through the weekend. This swell will back down slowly starting on Sunday but will hold plenty of rideable waves through the first part of next week. Look for more S-SSW swell lining up out the back…chance for another overhead+ shot of energy for around the 20-21st (and even more after that)…thank you Southern Hemisphere!

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (new swell fills in fast)
The S-SSW swell (180-210) moves in and peaks on Friday…NW windswell holds smaller in the background. While the main part of the swell’s peak hits in the afternoon there will be plenty of energy showing through the morning as the swell continues to fill in. Look for average S facing spots to see surf in the chest-head high range. The standout S-SSW facing breaks, mostly through Orange County and parts of San Diego, will see some shoulder-overhead surf fairly consistently with some bigger sets going a couple of feet+ overhead at times. Breaks that can really focus this sort of swell will be bigger. Winds/Weather: Light again for the morning…mostly light and variable with a touch of eddy circulation (not enough to get super funky). Look for more WNW-NW wind to build into the 10-15 knot range by the afternoon.



Saturday – (S-swell holds through the day)
The S swell (180-195) will continue to peak on Saturday holding strong throughout the day. Local NW windswell and some weak energy from further off the coast will hold in the background. S facing spots will continue to see the biggest surf with average spots running in the chest-head high range. Standout breaks will be consistently head high with overhead surf along with some inconsistent heads going a few feet overhead on the lower tides. Look for the best/size shape through the S-swell points and reefs of Orange County and San Diego. North LA will also be pretty fun but it will be smaller than other areas thanks to some blockage from the local islands. Winds/Weather: Winds will be light through the morning…mostly light/variable but with a few pockets of light offshore flow near the passes and canyons. Look for onshore W winds around 10-14 knots through the afternoon.



Sunday – (the S swell starts to slowly drop…but still plenty of surf for us)
The S swell (180-190) will back off slowly on Sunday but there is enough junk in the trunk of this swell to keep plenty of waves showing at the exposed areas throughout the day. The mix of local NW windswell will come up a couple of notches as well…but it has a pretty steep angle so most breaks won’t be able to pick up much of it. Average waves will continue to be in the chest-head high range. The standout S facing breaks will be in the shoulder-overhead range on the sets…along with a few bigger waves through the morning. Winds/Weather: Another good wind day…mostly light and variable in the morning with some moderate onshore flow in the afternoon. Winds stay mostly below 10 knots for the majority of the day but expect some bump from lunchtime trough the afternoon.



Monday – (Fading S swell…still surfable though)
The S swell (180-190) continues to fade on Monday while the NW windswell starts to creep up a bit more. Look for the average S facing spots and the good NW windswell breaks will have surf in the waist-shoulder high range. The standout spots will be in the chest-head high range with some occasional head high+ sets still showing on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Looking a little more eddyish on Monday…not totally blow out but with enough southerly texture bump to it that it might get a little funky. Look for variable S-SW flow through the morngin around 5-6 knots with some stronger gusts moving through the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The NPAC continues to be pretty quiet…but it looks like the forecast models are trying to call my bluff on saying that the region was completely out of the game. Short-term look for a mix of weak local NW windswells as well as some very marginal energy from storms that have developed off to the West of the International Dateline.

Further out the charts are showing some increasing organization of a storm just on the edge of our swell window. If this system can actually form we would see some steeply angled, but potentially rideable mix of NW energy arriving through the 2nd half of next week. Check out the wavewatchIII model...



This storm is a ways out…so my money is that the storm won’t really develop like the forecast model thinks (if it even forms at all). Likely it will be something more like an upper-level low that helps to spin up the springy winds later next week…but since it is on the charts today it is worth keeping in the forecast.

South Pacific
The SPAC seems to be firing on all cylinders right now. There is a high-pressure parked over Northern New Zealand that seems to be funneling the storms right into a great spot in our swell window…and at the same time this high is forcing some of the regions tropical energy to bounce back and dump a ton of warm/moist air into the colder high-latitude storms. The blend of these two elements have let a few back-to-back storms slip through Socal’s S-SSW swell window, which means that the swell doesn’t have to pass through all the islands that usually chew it up.



We have a solid swell that will be peaking over the weekend that will give the summer spots several days of overhead surf before it fades out. This will be followed by another good sized S-SSW swell (180-210) that moves in some initial energy around the 19th but peaks more the 20-21st. Check out a shot of the WINDsat data from a couple of days ago…



These winds were well-positioned and sort of moved along a path established by a weaker front that pushed through about 12-18 hours earlier...they also continued to move along this path for the next day or so which will really put the finishing touches on this swell. At this point I am expecting another round of shoulder-head high+ surf at the average (but well exposed) S facing spots. The standout S swell breaks will be in the shoulder-overhead range with sets going a couple of feet+ overhead.

The swell for the 20-21st will barely have time to drop before another S-SSW swell (180-210) moves in. Forecast charts are showing another, well-positioned and intense storm forming in about 2-3 days.



Again this one is seeing some heavy extra-tropical influence so I am expecting some solid sea-heights in the storm…wavewatchIII is calling for 40-45 foot seas near the core (holy crap!). If this storm lives up to expectations we would see another overhead+ S-SSW swell (180-210) headed our way for May 24-25th. This, like most of those swells, have most of their energy heading toward Central America and Mainaland Mexico, so if you are looking for supersize surf you might head down that way.



This isn’t the only system in the long-range either…the extreme long-range charts are calling for another storm to form in about the same spot in about 5-6 days, which would have yet another S-SSW swell homing in on Socal for around the 28-29th. This one isn’t locked in stone, but I think the odds are looking pretty good at this point.

Tropics
Oh man…it is almost that time of year again! The official start of the Eastern Pacific tropical season is May 15th (Saturday)…so it is time to start watching that region a little closer…nothing brewing right now, but the tropics may not have gotten memo that the season starts in 2 days.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, May 17th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Thursday’s funk – go away wind!

Thursday isn’t looking all that fun…there will be more swell in the water but it looks like more of this onshore wind, and probably some rain as well.

The WNW-NW swell (280-300), which is a mix of medium-period energy and local windswell slop), will peak on Thursday. A new S swell (180-200) moves in throughout the day…lots of long-period energy showing mostly on the buoys, but starting to sneak into the beaches by the end of the day. Again there may be a few pockets of semi-rideable (that being a relative term) conditions at the really protected spots in the morning, but don’t waste a lot of time/gas/money looking for clean glassy surf.



The WNW swell mix will be peaking on Thursday morning…but it looks like most of the energy is coming in around the 290-300 degree range…check out how it is hitting Socal on the CDIP analysis chart…



There is a little bit of refraction/bend to the WNW-NW energy (the longer-period swell) that you can see on the fringes of NW facing breaks…but the majority of the swell is both steeper in swell angle and shorter in swell period which is why the swell-shadow from Point Conception and the nearshore islands is so pronounced. This means that there will be some pretty changes in size as you move from an exposed beach to a lesser exposed area.

Sizewise on Thursday…look for the average WNW facing spots to be in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout NW facing breaks…in those red circles…will be shoulder-head high+ on the average sets with some bigger sets going overhead+ at times. Winds and the tide swing will hamper size and shape for almost everywhere...so if you are heading out hell or high water…try and keep that in mind when you pick your spot.

Weather is supposed to be pretty sloppy tomorrow too…check out the NOAA graphical forecast...



Winds are a little weird though…the weather models aren’t really sure how this storm is going to set up by Thursday morning…it may center itself around point conception…or it may be further out to sea. Both positions have different effects on the wind…a closer storm could allow the northern counties like Santa Barbara and Ventura to see lighter winds while LA on southward would see onshore W winds pretty much from the start of the day. If the storm is further off the coast then we may have more southerly winds across most of Socal, which leaves a few spots pretty protected. Check out the two wind models that I am looking at this afternoon…there is a pretty big difference between the two…





I have a gut feeling that we are going to get something in the middle of these two…sort of lighter/variable onshore flow for the morning, mostly W-SW around 10 knots with some of the northern areas seeing the W winds pick up fast by mid-morning. By the afternoon all spots should be plenty blown out thanks to 15-20 knot W winds with some 25 knot gusts. The rain should move out pretty fast too…

Basically I am expecting sloppy, junky conditions for most areas tomorrow…I know, I know there is always the one secret reef that has the inside section that works on the reverse negative tide and goes offshore whenever the wind is bad everwhere else…no matter what direction it is blowing (I think you have to talk to the singing bush, to find the invisible swordsman, so he can show you to the spot for the first time)...but for most of us that have to surf the normally wide open beaches, it is going to be pretty lumpy. As usual, whenever we have swell in the water, I recommend at least checking the wind in the morning (or whenever your “surf time” is during the day)…just to make sure that the storm hasn’t done something weird and opened a little window for you.

Here are the tides…

04/01/2010 Thu
05:41AM LDT -0.8 L
11:46AM LDT 3.7 H
05:06PM LDT 1.3 L
11:16PM LDT 5.6 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 3/29/2010

Forecast Overview

More WNW-NW swell arrives on Tuesday and eventually peaks Wednesday/Thursday before slowly dropping off toward the weekend. Funky weather (onshore wind/rain) arrive around the same time and will probably keep things pretty sloppy as most of the swell pushes through. A long-period S swell arrives on Thursday and peaks Friday and Saturday…conditions will be cleaning up around then...cross your fingers that there is still enough WNW-NW energy that can help add some combo to the swell mix.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (chance for morning surf…bumpy by the afternoon)
The WNW-NW swell (280-300) will continue to fill in on Tuesday as more local windswell and some WNW-NW swell from the storm gathering off the California coast, pile some new energy into the mix. There will also be a smaller SW pulse (200-220) that will back down slowly through the day. Most spots with WNW exposure will be in the chest high range with some shoulder high+ sets. The standout NW breaks in the usual spots (Ventura, the South Bay, and South SD) will have more consistent head high surf with some sets going overhead on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: A new cold front is set to push into the region on Tuesday…arriving in SB/Ventura through the morning and then trying to push south throughout the day. Overall it looks like onshore wind for Socal…but areas ahead of the front may not be that bad, even seeing some SE winds before it hits. The winds are expected to shift more W around 10-15 knots for the afternoon with stronger gusts the closer you get to Point Conception.



Wednesday – (Not a surf day)
Looks pretty craptacular weatherwise…but the stormy WNW-NW swell will be peaking through the afternoon. I don’t expect in the way of clean surf on Wednesday but there are always a few obscure pockets here and there…it is sort-of worth watching the swell. The WNW-NW energy (280-300) will be peaking with shoulder-head high+ surf at most exposed spots and sets going a few feet overhead (and bigger) at the standout NW facing breaks. Winds/Weather: Winds look almost universally sucky on Wednesday…look for W winds 10-15+ knots for most areas with the most exposed spots seeing 20-25 knot gusts. Rain/drizzle is pretty likely throughout the day.



Thursday – (Not a surf day)
The peak of the WNW-NW swell (280-300) will continue to hold into Thursday morning…along with the sloppy conditions. A new S swell (180-200) moves in throughout the day and will start to peak a few hours after sunset. Most spots will see shoulder-head high+ surf with overhead+ sets mixing in on the lower tides. The standout NW facing spots will be overhead to several feet overhead….with the biggest surf showing in the morning. The S facing breaks will see surf in the chest-shoulder high range as the new S swell moves in…as well as a few bigger sets at the Orange County/San Diego standout summer breaks. Winds/Weather: Another cold-front is forecast to move through early on Thursday morning…turning the winds a bit southerly (more SW than S unfortunately). Potentially it may bring some heavier rain as well. Look for the winds to shift more W around 10-20 knots through the afternoon.



Friday – (Some clean up possible…chance for some surf)
The storm is expected to move out of the area on Friday…conditions may not totally clean up…but it will be better than what we see earlier in the week. Look for the WNW-NW swell (280-300) to fade out slowly through the day while the S swell (180-200) continues to peak. The average spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head high sets. The standout NW facing spot and the good combo breaks will have fairly consistent shoulder-overhead surf with some sets still going a couple of feet+ overhead at times. Winds/Weather: Conditions still look pretty unstable but if the storm moves out a bit earlier on Thursday (or comes in weaker to begin with) then we will see some cleanup on Friday. Look for mostly N-NNW winds around 10-15 knots up around Santa Barbara down through LA…and then N winds around 10 knots for OC and SD. Looks like all spots see some W winds around 15 knots for the afternoon.



North Pacific
We have a strong storm in the Gulf of Alaska centered just off the Pacific NW Coast this bad-boy is going to be sending us some new WNW-NW swell (280-300+) over the next few days…peaking mostly Wednesday afternoon and overnight into Thursday morning.





Unfortunately this same storm is going to drape a couple of cold fronts down over SoCal starting Tuesday evening and holding on through Thursday. These fronts will build up local WNW-NW windswell to mix in with the medium/long-period WNW-NW energy…but of course the winds that set up the windswell will be blowing right over top of us and between them and the rain it is going to keep conditions pretty sloppy through midweek.

Further out the NPAC still isn’t quite shutting down…but it also isn’t doing anything particularly spectacular. At this point it looks like a new storm may form up around the Aleutians later this week, which would set up new NW swell (290-300+) that would arrive around April 4-6. It also looks like another storm could develop next to California around the same time…so we could see another mix of local windswell, longer-period NW swell, and funky weather all arriving early next week.

South Pacific
The SPAC has been getting more active lately and the storms seem to be a little more frequent than what we even had a few weeks ago. Right now we will be seeing some new long-period S-swell (170-200) from a storm that moved off Antarctica late last week. The storm had some decent wind speeds…plenty of 35-45 knot winds around the key areas of fetch…and the storm made a very good South-to-North movement as it was intensifying which helped to push more swell our direction. It won’t be huge…but I do expect it to be pretty playful as it peaks and I expect it to stick around for a few days. This swell will start to arrive with some long-period energy on Thursday (April 1)…and then peaking on Friday/Saturday (April 2-3). Average spots will see chest-shoulder high surf from this one while the standout S facing breaks hold more in the head high to slightly overhead range on the sets.

Further out There is some new storm action developing down by New Zealand that is forecast to intensify as some sub-tropical moisture pushes south into the storm track just as the system starts to clear the SPAC Island Shadow.





If this comes through as the charts are showing we would be looking at another round of shoulder-head high SW swell (200-220) that would arrive around April 8th and hold through the 10th. This one still has a few days of development before it sends swell but we should start seeing some actual numbers later this week.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, April 1st , 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Surf for Thursday – Peaking W swell…and a touch of wind?

Thursday is looking pretty surfable but we may have some onshore wind issues in a few areas.

Swellwise we are going to see a solid W swell (270-300 but with most of the energy around 285-300) and a new pulse of S-SSW swell (180-200) that will both be peaking on Thursday. Some local WNW windswell may develop in the background as well. Here is a shot from the CDIP this afternoon…I am expecting to see more S swell in the mix by tomorrow morning.



Surf sizes are going to hold around shoulder-head high on the sets for the average exposed spots that are both W facing or can pick up some of the swell combo. Top NW facing breaks and the excellent combo spots will be more consistently around head high with overhead peaks mixing in at times, particularly the low tides. Look for the biggest sizes at the NW facing standouts in Ventura, the South Bay, and most of San Diego (but particularly southern San Diego). The top combo spots will be along the better exposed areas of Orange County, North San Diego, and a few of the more exposed areas in North LA/South Ventura.

Winds are where we might have a couple of issues…looking at the winds tonight it seems like it would be a sure thing for light/variable conditions for tomorrow...but forecast models are calling for the back-end of this front to push through the area and possibly set up some WNW clearing winds that generally follow these storms. Check out the two models for tomorrow…





According to these runs we could potentially see some NW winds around 8-10 knots for the morning at the more exposed areas. Personally I think that the models are being a bit too aggressive with the morning winds, and that the lack of cloud cover (and the corresponding dropping air temps) may knock down those wind speeds showing on the models.

So for tomorrow I think that we should plan on a little morning texture…enough that it might be worth looking at the cams or the wind stations before jamming to the beach…but I don’t think that it will be completely blown out. Afternoon winds will strengthen into the 10-15 knot+ range…so the cleanest window will likely be in the morning.

Again the water quality isn’t going to be that great tomorrow…so you may want to wait another day or two before surfing any rivermouths or storm drains…but the swell mix will be running pretty solid and if the winds hold up we could be looking at a fun day of surf.

Here are the tides…

01:34AM LDT 0.2 L
07:47AM LDT 5.5 H
02:06PM LDT 0.6 L
07:56PM LDT 5.2 H

Waves for the Weekend – Playful swell mix

There will be some waves this weekend...it won’t be huge...or that consistent...but it will be more rideable than the last few days.

We are going to see a mix of S swell (180-200) that will peak through Saturday and then start to slowly fade through Sunday and Monday. In the background we are going to see a mix of WNW-NW windswell and a tiny bit of SW swell. It looks like the windswell will build in a bit more by the end of the weekend. Check out the sideways forecast...it is nice not to see so much dark blue.



Wave heights are going to average around waist-chest high for most areas. The standout S facing spots and good combo breaks will have some shoulder high sets. (between you and me...I didn’t really like the storm that sent this S swell, so I am staying on the conservative side with my wave heights...I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see some bigger sets mixing in on the lower tides...but I wouldn’t count on them either).

Winds look good for the next couple of mornings. Overcast skies and light and variable conditions for most areas. W winds will build in through the afternoons topping out around 10-14 knots. Check out the wind models...

Saturday @ 8am


Sunday @ 8am


With it being a holiday weekend, and there being some swell after a few days of flatness...there is going to be a lot of frustrated line-ups out there. Really I think your best bet is to find a playful peak close to home...and try and get some surf early in the day before the winds/tide/crowds start to kill the fun-factor. I would also keep an eye on the tides...even though they aren’t super high/low the surf has been pretty sensitive to the swing...try and plan around it if you can.

Here are the tides...Have a great memorial day! (Also I want to send out a huge thanks to all of our servicemen and servicewomen...I hope you stay safe where ever you are).



I should post a new forecast for Memorial Day on Sunday...but I probably will be drinking which sort of makes it an iffy proposition. Have a good one gang!

Saturday
03:23AM LDT -1.1 L
09:39AM LDT 3.6 H
02:29PM LDT 1.7 L
08:40PM LDT 6.4 H

Sunday
04:07AM LDT -1.3 L
10:30AM LDT 3.6 H
03:10PM LDT 1.8 L
09:22PM LDT 6.5 H

Memorial Day
04:54AM LDT -1.5 L
11:22AM LDT 3.6 H
03:55PM LDT 2.0 L
10:07PM LDT 6.5 H

Waves for the Weekend – A little funk on Saturday. New S swell on Sunday

We are going to have some surf this weekend.

Saturday is going to be a bit funky as this weird little storm warbles over us...fortunately conditions do improve by Sunday, just in time for the new S swell (180-190) to arrive.

On Saturday we can expect a mix of WNW swell (290-300), local NW windswell, and some SW swell (200-220). Most spots will hold in the chest high range. The standout combo spots and the really exposed NW spots (*cough* San Diego *cough*) will have some shoulder-head high sets. Shape won’t be ideal thanks to some variable onshore flow that is forecast to hold over the area. At this point it looks like textured bump with winds around 10-knots for the morning...and then more W-SW flow pushing through the afternoon. Check out this little pain in the butt storm on the GOES satellite.



Sunday we see the new S swell (180-190) start to fill in. Periods will be pretty long as the swell first starts to arrive...probably around 18-19 seconds initially. I don’t think we are going to see a ton of new size through the morning but there will be some extra punch as the first sets start to arrive at the exposed areas. Look for more size as the swell continues to fill in through the day...chance for some head high+ sets at the top S spots (mostly through Orange County) by late in the day. This swell eventually peaks Monday and Tuesday...so expect plenty of waves from it as we head through next week.

Winds on Sunday look much better...forecasts are calling for light and variable winds through the morning with a few spots of light texture. Onshore W flow around 10-12 knots moves in through the afternoon.

Like I said...we should see plenty of waves this weekend but Sunday looks the best. All areas will have playful sizes but the top NW facing spots and the best S facing breaks (and the excellent combo spots) will see the most size and the most consistency. If you can I would plan on surfing more on Sunday just because the conditions look better...but I would also try and carve out some time to surf early next week as the S swell (and another WNW’er) fill in a bit more and peak.

Here are the tides...Have a great weekend and a happy Easter!

Saturday
05:13AM LDT -0.5 L
11:19AM LDT 3.6 H
04:29PM LDT 1.5 L
10:37PM LDT 5.4 H

Sunday
05:55AM LDT -0.3 L
12:08PM LDT 3.2 H
04:52PM LDT 1.9 L
11:06PM LDT 5.1 H

Tropical Alert - Update - Hurricane Marie

Marie is now off the fence and is working hard to become a pretty decent little swell-maker.

Over the last 24-hours she has intensified into a CAT-1 hurricane and has held nearly stationary due south of SoCal, which is great for producing surf.

Check out the Sat photo of the EPAC...



Here is her NHC forecast track...they are still calling for some slight WNW movement (which is also good for swell production).



At last forecast I was calling for waist-chest high waves from Marie...now with these changes I think we are going to see a bit more size from her. At this point I think we will see chest-shoulder high+ surf at the average S facing spots and some head high+ sets at the top S facing standouts (mostly in OC). Add in that we will have plenty of energy from the WNW, the SSW out of the Southern Hemi, and local windswell and we are going to see a lot of surf early next week. Timing wise I am still looking for about the same arrival times...some initial energy from Marie arriving on Saturday afternoon and the peak hitting Sunday/Monday.

Tuesday’s Surf – Thanks for the holiday now get back to work!

Tuesday is looking like a surf day…and there is going to be a little more swell filling in on the mix we already have showing.

We will mostly see a mix of the leftover S-SW mix, and local NW windswell that we have been slogging through for the last couple of weeks. The morning will start off particularly slow as those swells continue to limp in. A new S swell (175-190) begins filling in with some long-period forerunners around midday and we should start to see some new sets arriving around sundown.

For Tuesday mostly spots will continue to hold around waist-high+…with just a few inconsistent chest high waves mixing in. Standout S-SW facing breaks and the top combo spots will be more consistently in the chest-high+ range with some shoulder high sets at times.

The best breaks in Orange County and North San Diego may even have some head high waves hitting by sundown…conditions won’t be that good…but maybe, just maybe if we all wish really really hard we can see some sort of a clean up as the new swell starts filling in. (I am not going to hold my breath or anything).

I still think that your small wave boards, fishy shapes, eggs, longboards…are still going to be the most fun on Tuesday. You might be able to get away with a more “performance” board if you weigh like 90lbs or something.

Conditions look decent as well…mostly light and variable through the morning, with a couple of small pockets of onshore texture. W winds around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.

Really I am getting a little more fired up about the peak of the S swell that arrives on Wednesday and Thursday…sizewise it should top out around a consistent head high…maybe even a few head high+ waves at the best spots…bout time we had a swell with a little ass in it.

Hope you guys had a great weekend!

Swell Semi-Alert - Finally the South Pacific comes back online

Just to head off the hype before it gets started...this isn't a big swell...hell in the scheme of things it probably wouldn't even stand out as much of anything...but considering that we have had a couple of weeks of near flatness it is definitely worth mentioning. So hear it goes.

The details

A few days ago we had a decent storm spin up down in the South Pacific...right around the 40S Latitude and 120W Longitude...which is basically due south of Southern California. The storm made a nice push northward (right at us) as it intensified...eventually capping out with winds around 40-50 knots and nearly 30-foot seas in a fetch that was aimed our direction.

Check out the Wavewatch III swell model...you can see the storm (with the yellow blog just off the coast of Chile) the wave heights are in meters.

Here you can see the swell moving (this map tracks the dominant swell period). Watch the yellow blob move out from the storm area...oh and keep an eye on the darker red (long-period) SW swell that fills in behind the S swell.

Finally here is some QuikSCAT satellite data of the storm as well...this is the core of the fetch that set up a day or two ago.

The surf

I know what you are saying, "gee the charts are pretty but what about the waves?"

Well those are on the way as well...we can expect this new S swell (175-190) to move into SoCal late on Tuesday Sept 2nd...setting up some new waves before sundown.

The peak of the swell will hit on Wednesday September 3rd and hold into Thursday September 4th.

Like I said above it isn't a great swell...I expect the average S facing spots to see surf in the chest-shoulder high+ range with a few inconsistent head high sets.

Standout S facing breaks, mostly through Orange County, will have chest-head high surf with a few head high+ sets sneaking through at the top breaks in the area.

Winds and weather are looking good for this swell (at this point)...and there may even be some background WNW energy to help break it up at the combo spots...so while it isn't the biggest swell it should be a lot more fun than we have seen for a couple of weeks.

Friday's Surf - Rideable but still waiting for the bigger S swell.

Friday will be surfable, definitely not great, but semi-rideable at most spots, and probably fun small surf at the top breaks.

Swellwise it looks like swell from Elida is sort of a bust...it is out there but it is lacking size and punch...it is a lot like a S windswell in shape and power. Friday we may have a touch more size, and a bit more of S angle (compared to SE) out of the tropical swell but I am not holding my breath that it will be all that good. We will also have a mix of S-SW energy coming in from the SPAC and some increasing local NW windswell.

Most spots will continue to run in the knee-waist high range. Standout spots, good S-SE facing beaches and excellent combo breaks, will see waist-chest high surf through the morning...and maybe a few bigger sets as we head towards the afternoon.

Winds will be similar to Thursday...mostly light and variable in the morning and then light-moderate onshore out of the W around 10-12 knots through the afternoon.

I would bring your small wave gear to the beach tomorrow...a fish might be fun but I think the longboard might be better for the swell mix. The S facing spots in North OC and parts of San Diego will be the biggest but not worth driving for at this point.

Here is the CDIP model from this afternoon…(a piddliy 1.1’ at 175-degrees)



A little further out: The new S swell (170-190) will begin to show on the buoys later in the afternoon...I am looking for some 20+ second energy to start to climb as we head into sundown. This will continue to build overnight and throughout the day on Saturday, eventually peaking Saturday evening into Sunday and holding through Monday. You can check out the other posts I had for this swell for more details...but the good S facing spots will be overhead+ on sets as the swell peaks...so it should be pretty fun over the weekend and into early next week. More details tomorrow!

Friday – New S swell but more of that funky wind

Friday looks like a surf day…again not great…but rideable.

We will have a new S swell (180) moving in to mix with some inconsistent SW energy and some local windswell.

Most spots will continue to hang around waist high with some inconsistent plus sets sneaking through on the low-to-high tide push.

Standout S facing breaks…mostly in Orange County but also showing in a few areas of North LA…will have some more consistent waist-chest high waves with a few shoulder high sets coming through on the better tides. North OC looks like it will be the biggest off this new S swell.

Winds are still not that great…looks like that funky-chicken morning conditions we have had for the last couple of days will continue. So look for mostly light and variable to light onshore winds in the morning…it should be clean early but expect it to bump up around mid-morning.

I still don’t think that it is worth driving very far for the surf…I would stick to a camera check early in the morning just in case the wind jumps on it too early…but if you are within striking distance of North OC then I would consider making a run to one of the good S facing beaches in that area.