Thursday’s funk – go away wind!

Thursday isn’t looking all that fun…there will be more swell in the water but it looks like more of this onshore wind, and probably some rain as well.

The WNW-NW swell (280-300), which is a mix of medium-period energy and local windswell slop), will peak on Thursday. A new S swell (180-200) moves in throughout the day…lots of long-period energy showing mostly on the buoys, but starting to sneak into the beaches by the end of the day. Again there may be a few pockets of semi-rideable (that being a relative term) conditions at the really protected spots in the morning, but don’t waste a lot of time/gas/money looking for clean glassy surf.



The WNW swell mix will be peaking on Thursday morning…but it looks like most of the energy is coming in around the 290-300 degree range…check out how it is hitting Socal on the CDIP analysis chart…



There is a little bit of refraction/bend to the WNW-NW energy (the longer-period swell) that you can see on the fringes of NW facing breaks…but the majority of the swell is both steeper in swell angle and shorter in swell period which is why the swell-shadow from Point Conception and the nearshore islands is so pronounced. This means that there will be some pretty changes in size as you move from an exposed beach to a lesser exposed area.

Sizewise on Thursday…look for the average WNW facing spots to be in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout NW facing breaks…in those red circles…will be shoulder-head high+ on the average sets with some bigger sets going overhead+ at times. Winds and the tide swing will hamper size and shape for almost everywhere...so if you are heading out hell or high water…try and keep that in mind when you pick your spot.

Weather is supposed to be pretty sloppy tomorrow too…check out the NOAA graphical forecast...



Winds are a little weird though…the weather models aren’t really sure how this storm is going to set up by Thursday morning…it may center itself around point conception…or it may be further out to sea. Both positions have different effects on the wind…a closer storm could allow the northern counties like Santa Barbara and Ventura to see lighter winds while LA on southward would see onshore W winds pretty much from the start of the day. If the storm is further off the coast then we may have more southerly winds across most of Socal, which leaves a few spots pretty protected. Check out the two wind models that I am looking at this afternoon…there is a pretty big difference between the two…





I have a gut feeling that we are going to get something in the middle of these two…sort of lighter/variable onshore flow for the morning, mostly W-SW around 10 knots with some of the northern areas seeing the W winds pick up fast by mid-morning. By the afternoon all spots should be plenty blown out thanks to 15-20 knot W winds with some 25 knot gusts. The rain should move out pretty fast too…

Basically I am expecting sloppy, junky conditions for most areas tomorrow…I know, I know there is always the one secret reef that has the inside section that works on the reverse negative tide and goes offshore whenever the wind is bad everwhere else…no matter what direction it is blowing (I think you have to talk to the singing bush, to find the invisible swordsman, so he can show you to the spot for the first time)...but for most of us that have to surf the normally wide open beaches, it is going to be pretty lumpy. As usual, whenever we have swell in the water, I recommend at least checking the wind in the morning (or whenever your “surf time” is during the day)…just to make sure that the storm hasn’t done something weird and opened a little window for you.

Here are the tides…

04/01/2010 Thu
05:41AM LDT -0.8 L
11:46AM LDT 3.7 H
05:06PM LDT 1.3 L
11:16PM LDT 5.6 H

Waves for Wednesday – Some Wind, Some Rain, and Some more WNW-NW swell

Wednesday is not looking like much of a surf day. Onshore winds are forecast to stay pretty steady tonight (out of the W) and hold through most of the day tomorrow. Rain and more wind is expected to move in Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of building local NW windswell and some increasing WNW-NW medium-period energy (280-300) both coming off this storm that will be moving through. There will be some small SW swell in the background but most spots won’t notice much of the energy.



Most spots will see some sort of increase surfwise tomorrow…but most of the new size will be local windswell/stormswell and it won’t be doing much to help shape. Sure there may be a few hidden pockets of protected breaks (particularly in the morning)…but those spots won’t be as exposed to the windswell if they are protected from the winds. Average WNW-NW breaks will likely hold around chest-head high while the best exposed NW facing breaks see some shoulder-overhead surf with some sets reaching a couple of feet overhead by the afternoon. (it looks like this swell will peak overnight into Thursday.)

Winds are forecast to be out of the W around 10-15 knots for the morning…with exposed areas hitting 20-25 knot gusts by the afternoon. Rain will push down from Santa Barbara in the morning and eventually hit most of Socal by the late afternoon…it should be a fairly cold airmass along with it…so snow levels could be dropping (so local mountains could get some new snow).



Looking at the charts and models isn’t giving me a lot of hope for tomorrow…but since there is swell in the water I always recommend at least looking at the cameras (or wind observations) to make sure that a surfable window hasn’t opened up at your usual spots. The westerly winds are able to junk up most spots but there may be a pocket or two at the really well protected breaks. Personally I will be getting up and checking stuff out early just to make sure that the storm hasn’t stalled out…but I will probably be going back to bed.

No county level forecasts today…there are only so many ways to write blown-out before it gets tedious.

Here are the tides…

03/31/2010 Wednesday
04:52AM LDT -0.9 L
10:54AM LDT 4.3 H
04:33PM LDT 0.8 L
10:40PM LDT 5.8 H

Surf for Tuesday – getting sloppy

Tuesday doesn’t look like much of a surf day…but if winds cooperate, there may be a little surf window in the morning.

We are going to see a mix of building WNW-NW swell (280-300), some weak SW swell (200-220) and increasing local WNW windswell. A new cold front is forecast to move down the coast on Tuesday…not really affecting Socal till late (mostly after dark)…but eventually increasing onshore winds and adding some rain/drizzle into the mix.



Most spots with WNW exposure will be in the chest high range with some shoulder high+ sets. The standout NW breaks in the better winter regions like Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will have more consistent head high surf with some sets going overhead on the lower tides.

Wind/weather is where we are going to have the issues…most of the forecasts are calling for WNW winds that pick up here on Monday night to hold steady straight through Tuesday morning, which, if that is the case, will keep things pretty sloppy for most areas. A couple of the forecast models…the COAMPS and the NOAA/NWS graphical models to be precise…are showing a little bubble of light winds right along the coast line through the early morning. I don’t think we should hold our breath…but there might be a chance at some lighter winds, maybe even semi-clean conditions during the dawn patrol. Check out the COAMPS for the morning…see the gap that follows the coast…the COAMPS is calling for winds under 5 knots for the morning.



So not much of a surf day Tuesday…but a glimmer of hope early in the morning. Personally I am going to just keep an eye on the wind tonight and if it looks like it is lying down I will set my alarm a little earlier and see how things held together overnight. I wouldn’t burn a lot of gas getting to the beach, but if winds look light and you live close it might be worth a quick drive-by. If the winds increase later tonight you might just want to sleep in.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/30/2010 Tuesday
04:06AM LDT -0.7 L
10:05AM LDT 4.8 H
04:00PM LDT 0.3 L
10:05PM LDT 5.9 H

Monday’s Surf – Starting to pick back up

Monday will be pretty surfably…conditions start clean but we have to slog through a mid-morning high tide which is pretty sucktacular. Despite the building swell…onshore winds will honk things up by the afternoon.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of new WNW-NW swell (285-300 but with most of the energy holding in the 290-300 swell angles). We will also see some background SW swell (200-220) and building NW windswell both of which will push up slightly throughout the day.



Most spots will be in the knee-waist high range for the morning…with some bigger chest high sets showing at the better WNW facing average breaks. The standouts, mostly Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some rare bigger sets showing at spots that like the higher tides. By the afternoon look for more waist-chest high+ surf at the average spots and a few head high+ sets hitting the standout breaks.

Winds look ok in the morning…mostly light and variable with a few small pockets of offshore still showing in a few places. Since the wind doesn’t get much of a chance to shift around the local air we might see some fog in a few places as well…it shouldn’t be much of a problem, just keep in mind that it might not be totally sunny at the beach. NW winds around 10-15 knots start to pick up a little before lunchtime and will eventually peak later in the afternoon.



Again…not super exciting surfwise…the building swell helps, but it doesn’t look like a ton of it will show before the onshore winds start to get to it. The high tide doesn’t do us any favors either. I think that the early morning will be the most fun, clean conditions, the tide pushing in, and some of the new swell starting to arrive too...if you stick to exposed spots that can handle the higher tide it could end up being a pretty playful start to the week. If you wait too long…or all of the sand at your beach is gone…then the tide and the building winds won’t make it all that appealing.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/29/2010 Monday
03:21AM LDT -0.4 L
09:17AM LDT 5.1 H
03:27PM LDT -0.2 L
09:32PM LDT 5.8 H

Surf for Friday – New WNW-NW swell with a little wind-bump on the side

Friday looks pretty surfable…and with the weather warming back up, it being a Friday, and there being some swell to ride…I think we should just go ahead and call it a surf day.

We will have a mix of fading SW swell (195-215), a new building WNW-NW swell (280-300), and some increasing local windswell. The WNW’er will already be showing up around Ventura (and probably the South Bay) by the morning but it will have just started to arrive in OC and San Diego…so don’t expect a ton of new energy from it at first unless you are a little further north. It will fill in more through the day and as the local windswell jumps into the mix the WNW-NW facing spots should be pretty consistent by the afternoon.



Overall it looks like the average SW and WNW facing spots will continue to hold in the waist-chest high range…with some plus sets showing at the average combo spots. Standout NW facing breaks will be chest-shoulder high on most sets with some head high and overhead waves mixing in as the WNW energy gets more established. There will be another decent sized tide swing through the morning…so try and pick spots that can handle the extra water in the morning and then the negative low-tide around lunchtime.

Looks like winds will be fairly clean in the morning…there may be a little variable onshore winds here are there but it will be on the light side (hopefully below 5 knots). The winds switch onshore by the afternoon and push in out of the WNW-NW around 10-15+ knots.

Here are the graphical NWS regional models…the COAMPS needs to lay off the crack it has been smoking lately (they must be running it on a Vista machine).

Winds for Santa Barbara through Los Angeles



Winds for Orange County and San Diego



So it won’t be anything spectacular on Friday…the swell isn’t all that big for most spots…but there will still be enough combo in the water that almost everyone will be able to find something to ride. It will be one of those compromise days in terms of the tide/wind…do you surf early with the high tide and clean conditions? Or do you wait for the tide to drop and then get bumpy shape thanks to increasing onshore winds? Personally I am going to aim for somewhere in the middle and hope that I can find a sandbar somewhere that can take on the swampthing.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/26/2010 Friday
12:55AM LDT 1.5 L
06:44AM LDT 5.2 H
01:42PM LDT -0.7 L
07:59PM LDT 4.4 H

Waves for the Weekend – Semi-sloppy Saturday…cleaner and bigger on Sunday

Sunday looks like a surf day this weekend…Saturday on the other hand will be rideable, maybe even semi-clean in the morning but building onshore winds are going to junk it up pretty fast.

Over the weekend we can expect a mix of slowly building NW windswell (290-300) that starts pushing up late Friday night and will continue to fill in through Saturday eventually peaking on Sunday. There will also be some weak overlapping shots of S-SW swell that will push small surf into the well exposed breaks. On Sunday a new, bigger WNW-NW swell (285-300 but with most of the energy around 290-300), will arrive adding size to most of the exposed spots throughout Socal but hitting Southern SD a bit better than others.



Expect a slow start on Saturday…the windswell won’t have filled in much and we will be working off mostly WNW-NW leftovers and small S-SW energy…to top it off the high tide will still be squatting right in the middle of the dawn patrol. Look for the average WNW-NW facing breaks and the better combo breaks to hold right around knee to occasionally waist high. The better NW breaks in Ventura and the South Bay will be more in the waist-chest high range while the top NW spots and best combo breaks in Southern SD will have some chest-shoulder high sets. Shape won’t hold together long…10-20 knot W-WNW winds are forecast to develop around midday and hold through the afternoon.



Sunday will be much cleaner….and really, if the AM tide was a little less lame, it would probably end up being a fun playful surf day. Since we do have about a 5’ high tide that peaks right around 9am we can expect the morning surf to be on the slow side. There will still be some waves but the hightide swampthing is going to keep most areas from being very fun.



Sizewise we can expect the surf to come up a notch on Sunday. Look for the average WNW-NW facing spots to build into the waist-shoulder high range. Standout NW facing breaks and the excellent combo spots will be in the chest-head high range and it looks like a few of the best San Diego NW breaks will see some overhead sets.

We should have some N-NE winds setting up for Sunday morning…mostly below 10-knots and semi-variable in a few areas. So basically we can expect clean conditions, even slightly offshore flow for the morning and then moderate N-NW winds around 10-15+ knots for the afternoon.



Sort of a split decision this weekend…smaller and windy on Saturday (with a short surf window in the morning before the winds get too strong) and then cleaner conditions and building swell on Sunday. I don’t think that the Sunday swell will be worth driving all that far for…but if you are just a little ways from a better NW facing spot then I would take the extra time to check those areas. I am not super excited about the surf this weekend but I will be out seeing if I can find a playful nugget or two. Fortunately it looks like more clean conditions and a better combo swell will be heading our way next week…I can’t wait.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/13/2010 Saturday
01:40AM LST 1.2 L
07:32AM LST 4.9 H
02:12PM LST -0.1 L
08:16PM LST 4.3 H

03/14/2010 Sunday
03:10AM LDT 0.9 L
09:03AM LDT 4.8 H
03:33PM LDT 0.0 L
09:35PM LDT 4.5 H

Waves for Wednesday – New WNW swell but with some texture

Wednesday will see some new WNW-NW swell but expect some onshore texture as well…overall it will be surfable but I wish we could guarantee that it would be clean.

New WNW-NW swell (280-300) moves in and peaks on Wednesday. The swell, while it is filling in on the buoys this afternoon, didn’t show a ton of the longer-period energy on any of the West Coast buoys…which isn’t a great sign…not enough to write-off the swell or anything but I think I am going to lower my expectations on this one just a bit…shave a little bit of size off the wave heights.

The Harvest buoy was showing a lift over the last 12 hours but a lot of the energy is around the 11-14 second range which means wind speeds didn’t get super intense inside the storm. That being said…there WILL be new and more consistent surf than we saw on Tuesday, which is better than nothing in my book.



As the swell peaks on Wednesday we can expect average WNW facing breaks to be in the waist-chest high range…with some less consistent shoulder high sets mixing in. The standout NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will have shoulder-head high surf with overhead sets showing on the lower tides. I think that S. San Diego will have a few bigger waves now and then…but they won’t be all that consistent.

Winds look mostly light in the morning though the weather models aren’t agreeing on what direction we will end up seeing. Looking at the charts…we can expect light and variable winds through Santa Barbara down through North LA…and then light/variable onshore texture starting around the South Bay and holding down through San Diego. At this point it looks like winds will stay below 5-6 knots for the early morning, but there may be some pockets of stronger winds here and there. Afternoon winds strengthen out of the WNW around 10-15 knots for most areas.



I am a little bummed on how the swell not showing as much energy on the buoys as I thought it would…and that winds look a little funky in the morning…but it isn’t as bleak as all that. Like I said above, there will be a new swell in the water, the periods are pretty short but that actually helps out a few more regions, like Santa Barbara and the South Bay that do pretty well on the shorter-period energy. I would try and get on it early if you can…winds look lightest in the morning and the tide will be pretty low for the dawn patrol. Cross your fingers that the winds don’t screw us up too much too early.

Make sure to check the regional forecasts to see how the swell mix affects the different stretches of coastline.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/03/2010 Wednesday
06:13AM LST 0.8 L
11:53AM LST 3.9 H
06:01PM LST 0.7 L

Tuesday’s Surf – Leftovers but with some new WNW-NW swell showing out back

Tuesday will be a surf day…though it will still pay off to work around the high tide peak.

Tuesday will be a bit of transition day…the WNW-NW swell from the weekend will continue to drop off but another round of WNW-NW energy (280-300) will begin filling in as we move throughout the day. This new swell will be showing some new lines for exposed spots in Santa Barbara and Ventura during the morning…while spots further south will have mostly leftovers. By the afternoon the better WNW-NW breaks should be seeing at least a little more consistency.



Look for most average WNW facing breaks to see waist-chest high surf…standout NW breaks will be closer to shoulder high though the early morning. Things slow down again with the AM high tide but as the tide drops we should see more consistency and some bigger surf as the new WNW-NW’er fills in. I expect that the really exposed spots, mostly in Ventura, will have some head high+ sets showing before sunset…but don’t expect quite that much energy further south…the swell will fill in more after dark and will eventually peak on Wednesday.

Winds look good for the morning…mostly light and variable to light ESE. Winds shift more S-SW onshore around 10-12 knots for the afternoon. Chance of light showers developing overnight into Wednesday.



Now that the tide is shifting a little further back in the day I think we will have a bit more of a surf window in the morning…it will still swamp out pretty fast but there should be more to work with than the last couple of days. Unfortunately the surf is going to be a little weak in most areas early on, mostly because it will be just leftover WNW swell and weak S-SSW swell in the water, but if you bring the right gear you should still be able to have some fun. It looks like the wind may get to it by the afternoon but with the new swell filling in and the lower afternoon tide I still think it will warrant at least a quick surf-cam check late in the day.

Make sure to check the regional forecasts to see how the swell mix affects the different stretches of coastline.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/02/2010 Tuesday
05:09AM LST 0.8 L
10:56AM LST 4.8 H
05:25PM LST -0.1 L
11:47PM LST 5.0 H

Swell Alert – Good sized W-WNW heading to the West Coast

A strong new W-WNW swell will start moving into the California Coast late tonight, hitting the Northern and Central California regions well after sundown and eventually peaking in those regions on Thanksgiving.

Southern California will start to see some WNW-NW (280-300) long-period energy (18-20 seconds) later Thursday afternoon…eventually peaking throughout the day on Friday and holding into the weekend.

Like most of the intense storms we have seen so far this season this latest system is another mix of extra-tropical moisture from near Japan and a colder, higher-latitude, cold-front moving off of Siberia and the Kamchatka Peninsula. The rapid cooling of the warm-moist air-mass is helping to fuel the storm’s intensity, which has been pretty impressive…40-50+ knots of wind and 30-35 foot seas have been recorded (not just forecasted) in the key areas of fetch. Check out the latest JASON-1 satellite data…you can find this same stuff over on the Stormsurf.com website…and as usual a bit thanks to Mark Sponsler for letting me poach a couple of charts now and then. Make sure to visit his site when you get a chance.



And here is the equally impressive WavewatchIII forecast chart…as you can see the two are pretty matched up.



Anyhoo…the pictures are pretty in all…but lets talk about some surf.

Northern and Central California

The new W-WNW swell (275-315) is already showing on the SE Papa Buoy (#46006)…and actually started to hit this outer buoy around 4-5 am this morning with a sizeable dose of energy in that 18-20-second swell-period range. Check out the buoy’s historical data…





This buoy is about 600 miles west of Eureka…and is generally considered the 1-day buoy for Northern and Central California, which means that it takes a swell in the 17- to 18-second period range about 23-24 hours to actually hit the Northern/Central Cal beaches. (This buoy is usually 36-40 hours away form Southern California, depending on the swell period…)

So based on the buoy data, and the JASON-1 pass, this is going to be a pretty solid swell for the exposed spots North of Point Conception. It will peak with 12-14-feet of deepwater swell, which generally translates into consistent well-overhead to double-overhead+ surf for the average spots. Top breaks will be more consistently in the double-triple overhead range. Best deepwater breaks, like Mavericks, will see steady 14-16-foot faces with some bombs coming in around 20’+ on the face.



Winds and weather are going to cooperate on Thursday…lots of light/variable winds in the morning with some spots seeing light/moderage offshore flow through the first part of the day. NW winds build in through the evening and strengthen more into Friday…if you are surfing this area, Thursday will definitely be the cleanest and likely the most fun day of this swell.

Check out the CDIP models for the area…







Southern California

Socal is going to see some new long-period WNW-NW energy (280-300) showing in the well exposed Santa Barbara and Ventura breaks late in the afternoon/evening on Thursday. The swell will fill in more overnight and will start to peak for all areas by midmorning on Friday.

Friday Morning…



This is another one of those swells where the majority of the energy is riding in around 290-300…but with enough (more) westerly energy from (280-300) to keep waves showing at the lesser exposed spots.

As this swell peaks we can expect the average WNW facing spots to see consistent chest-shoulder high surf with sets going head high…with a couple of bigger sets mixing in. The top NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and parts of San Diego, will see consistent shoulder-overhead surf with some sets going 2-3-feet overhead…and possibly bigger at those excellent breaks that can focus the long-medium period NW energy.

Winds look good for both Thursday and Friday…mostly light and variable through the mornings (a little more offshore on Thursday)…and then only moderate onshore flow around 10-15 knots for the late afternoon. Stronger NW winds build in later Friday evening.


Overall…this is looking like a pretty good swell, particularly if you like big waves and you live up North. For SoCal though…I think it will be fun, but due to the majority of the energy coming in from 290+, there will be some shadowing issues…and if you don’t stick the best exposed spots you won’t see the larger surf. It will be rideable almost everywhere that has exposure…so you don’t “have” to drive far to get waves, but if you are looking for the overhead stuff plan on heading to the normal winter standouts.

Waves for the Weekend – more WNW-NW swell…a little wind

This will be a surf weekend…though the wind may not cooperate all that well on Saturday...fortunately the swell peaks on Sunday.

Over the weekend we are going to see a mix of building WNW-NW swell…it will get a slow start Saturday morning, so we can expect fun but smaller surf for the dawn patrol. The swell fills in more by Saturday afternoon and eventually peaks throughout the day on Sunday before fading slowly through the beginning of next week.



On Saturday the average spots are going to start off around waist high…maybe a couple of chest high sets at the better-than-average spots with NW exposure. The top breaks will be more in the chest high range with an inconsistent shoulder high set now and then. By the afternoon I expect the average spots to be a steady chest high…with the standout NW facing spots, particularly those up around Ventura, to be hitting shoulder-head high on the sets.



Winds on Saturday look a bit funky…the remnants of the cold front pushing through the area will bring on those NW winds that generally follow behind the front. These NW’ers may spin up the eddy for the morning…so it looks like San Diego and OC will have some southerly winds…hopefully below 10-knots…while Santa Barbara and Ventura pull some early NW flow. Like in most eddies…Los Angeles, particularly the South Bay, will be the cleanest area. NW winds 10-15+ knots move in through the afternoon.



Sunday the WNW-NW swell peaks…and average spots move into the consistent chest-shoulder high range with some less consistent head high sets. The standout WNW-NW facing breaks…spots that are nice and open to the (280-300) degree swell window…will be in the shoulder-head high+ range, with a few of the really good NW breaks going a couple of feet overhead at times. Look for pretty consistent surf throughout the day.



Winds look much better on Sunday. Mostly light and variable to light offshore throughout Socal. Look for NW winds around 10-12 knots with gusts nearly 15 at the normally windy spots.

This weekend looks fun…maybe a little slow early on Saturday but still rideable at the better exposed breaks. Really Sunday is going to be your best bet…the conditions will be nice as the swell peaks. I would check the points/reefs first on this swell…since there isn’t much to break it up they will have better shape. If you don’t have one near you…well it might be worth driving a little further to a spot that can hold a better wave, if that isn’t an option then try and find a pier/jetty/sandbar to groom up the shape a little.

Here are the tides…have a good weekend!

11/21/2009 Sat
12:56AM LST 3.4 H
04:26AM LST 3.0 L
10:37AM LST 4.9 H
06:43PM LST 0.4 L

11/22/2009 Sun
02:08AM LST 3.5 H
05:30AM LST 3.2 L
11:24AM LST 4.5 H
07:36PM LST 0.7 L

Links for the regional forecasts…

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 11/19/2009

Forecast Overview

The first pulse of WNW-NW swell will back down as we head into Friday…but more WNW-NW energy moves in right behind it and pushes our surf back up on Saturday and eventually peaks on Sunday. A little bit of funky weather/winds for Saturday morning but clean conditions for Sunday and the first half of next week. More WNW swell on tap for Tuesday…and possibly a bigger one on Thanksgiving. (Turkey Day surf..hell yeah!)

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
Our WNW-NW swell (280-300) will be backing off while small, inconsistent SW swell (200-220) holds in the background. The average WNW-NW facing spots and good combo breaks will be in the knee-chest high range…maybe a few bigger sets in the morning before the high tide. Top NW facing breaks will have chest-shoulder high surf with some head high sets showing at the better exposed breaks in San Diego. Winds/Weather: Mostly light and variable winds with some areas of ESE-SE winds moving through Orange County and San Diego. Slightly onshore W-NW winds 10-14 knots will be on tap through the afternoon. Increasing clouds and possibly some rain move in later Friday night.



Saturday
A whole new mix of WNW-NW swell moves in…both as windswell and some longer-period energy from a storm on the edge of the Gulf of Alaska. Again the swell direction will be in the 280-300 degree range but the main push of energy will be 290-300. The average spots will build back into the waist-chest high range for the morning with some shoulder high sets mixing in as the swell gets bigger in the afternoon. Top NW facing spots start off in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger sets up towards Ventura for the morning. As the swell fills in look for many of the NW facing standouts to build into the shoulder-head high range with some bigger overhead sets arriving before dark. Winds/Weather: Not the greatest weather…NW winds come in behind Friday’s weak cold front…possibly spinning up the eddy in some areas and pushing NW winds through others. Really your best bet it to keep an eye on conditions and see if they stay (or become) manageable at your local NW swell spots.



Sunday
The WNW-NW swell mix (280-300…but 290-300 is the sweet spot) will peak and mix with some background SSW-SW swell (195-220). Most exposed spots will be the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent plus sets mixing in. Top NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will have shoulder-head high+ surf fairly consistently and some bigger sets going a couple of feet overhead at times. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable to light offshore winds for the morning and variable NW winds 10+ knots for the afternoon. Overall this looks like the best day of the weekend (really though it was 50/50 odds…man I am a jackass).



Monday
Our surf fades slowly as the WNW-NW swell backs off (don’t worry it will be back). Look for more waist-chest high waves at the average spots. NW facing standouts will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets through the morning. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds through the morning with a few patches of offshore flow around the passes and canyons. NW winds 10-12+ knots rebuild through the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The North Pacific is fired up right now…lots of storm activity…waves for the upcoming weekend and more forecasted for next week. Look for WNW-NW swell to fade slightly on Friday but then rebuild Saturday before peaking on Sunday…there will be a little weather/wind to come with the increase in surf on Saturday but conditions clean up and shape will improve as it peaks Sunday. Clean conditions and slightly fading surf on tap for Monday.

New long-period NW swell (290-300) moves in on Tuesday Nov 24th and mixes with a slight bump in local windswell. Looks like more chest-shoulder high waves on tap for the average NW facing spots. Standout breaks, in the usual winter areas, will have some shoulder-head high+ sets. This will hold some decent size into early Wednesday and then start to back off slightly by the afternoon.

Further Out there is a pretty gnarly looking storm over by Kamchatka right now…check it out…look at the big black pit of nastiness moving over the Aleutians.



Here it is zoomed in…lots of 40-60 knots of wind showing in the quickscat readings already.



Of course this part of the storm isn’t in our swell window…but all this intensity is still a good sign since the same system is forecast to move across the Pacific and push a little lower in latitude as it gets more tropical moisture from warm/wet air pocket just to the north of Hawaii. The storm eventually ends up looking something like this on the forecast charts…



And producing swell that looks like this…



If all goes well in this storm’s development we will be looking at another decent-size…maybe even well-overhead WNW swell (270-290) heading in on Thanksgiving…likely peaking Thursday afternoon and into Friday. Before we get too fired up remember that we still have about 4-5 days before the system forms and a lot can happen between now and then…fortunately it has been a consistent feature on the charts, so the odds are looking to be in our favor.

South Pacific
The weak SW swells continue to leak out of the Southern Hemi. We will see some minor knee-chest high SW swell (200-220) move in on the 22nd…and then another similar sized pulse on the 24-26th…basically these will keep the way shadowed summer spots from being totally flat and just get lost in the bigger WNW-NW energy as it hits the combo spots. I think the best we can hope for is the SW’ers to show with energy to break up the shape at the combo breaks.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, November 23rd, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 11/16/2009

Forecast Overview

Tuesday is going to be small as we power through high tide and leftover swell. The rest of the week looks waaaay better as new storm activity brews up a decent shot of WNW-NW swell for late Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Long-range charts are calling for more WNW-NW swell for the weekend. I like writing those words…much better than “flat” and “do your chores”.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
Pretty weaksauce on Tuesday as we see just leftovers from both the NW and even smaller leftovers from the Southern Hemi (SSW-SW). Most spots will be in the knee high range while the NW facing standouts, mostly through San Diego, see some inconsistent waist-chest high sets as the tide drops. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions with light to moderate offshore flow through the morning and then only variable onshore flow picking up through the afternoon.



Wednesday
Wednesday will start off slow…mostly leftovers pushing in as we try to power through the morning high tide. A new mix of WNW-NW swell and windswell (280-300) will begin to fill in around the middle of the day and then continue to build in overnight. A few of the more Northerly regions, like Santa Barbara and Ventura, will see new waves arriving by midmorning…but will see both size and consistency come up right around the end of the day. On average we can expect knee high and smaller surf for the morning. Standout SB/Ven spots will see some waist-chest high waves by midday with some shoulder high+ waves showing the best NW facing breaks (mostly in Ventura) by sundown. Winds/Weather: we get a half-ass cold front trying to move over the region but petering out about midway. So SB/Ven areas may see some onshore bump as winds turn onshore as the front moves through. LA down through San Diego will have variable winds in the morning and then moderate NW winds 10-14 knots by the afternoon.



Thursday
The new WNW-NW mix (280-300, keep in mind that most of the energy is coming in around 290-300) of local windswell and medium-period energy will peak on Thursday while a small, very small, pulse of SW swell (200-220) fills in through the background. The average spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some chest high+ sets. The standout NW spots in San Diego, Ventura, and the South Bay, will be in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent bigger sets mixing in. A few of the best breaks in San Diego will have waves going overhead to a couple of feet overhead on the biggest sets. Winds/Weather: Pretty standard…light and variable to variable onshore winds for the morning and then NW winds around 10-14 knots on tap for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The storm track in the NPAC has definitely picked back up…we already have an OK sized low-pressure sitting in the Gulf of Alaska this afternoon…check it out…



…this one will be sending in the swell that we start to see on Wednesday and eventually peaks on Thursday and Friday. Here is the Satellite shot…



And the link where you can animate its movement…

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/loop-vis.html

Further out the storm track has another storm moving off the Aleutians in the next couple of days that is supposed to get a bit more intense than this first low…it may not be a better swell-maker (likely it will be close to the same size as the one we see this week)…but it will definitely send in more waves for the 21-22nd. Unfortunately since this one is more intense it may make it closer to the Coast and junk up the weather…but that is still a few days away from being certain. At this point count on more shoulder-head high+ surf for the top NW standouts by the 21st, holding into the 22nd, and then slowly fading as we head into the early part of next week.





Even Further Out the forecast charts have more activity moving into our swell window late this week…chances are pretty good that we will continue to see some form of WNW-NW swell for parts of next week…hopefully we will have some waves for Turkey Day.

South Pacific
The SPAC is still being super lame…I am almost forgetting that it is even down there. OK it isn’t totally lifeless but I am not seeing a single significant swell in the forecast at this point…just a steady weak pulse of SW swell from way over by New Zealand. Looks like the energy gets slightly more pulsey around the 19th…and again around the 22nd. Man I am glad the North Pacific is getting its act together.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, November 19th, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/