Monday, March 29, 2010

Surf for Tuesday – getting sloppy

Tuesday doesn’t look like much of a surf day…but if winds cooperate, there may be a little surf window in the morning.

We are going to see a mix of building WNW-NW swell (280-300), some weak SW swell (200-220) and increasing local WNW windswell. A new cold front is forecast to move down the coast on Tuesday…not really affecting Socal till late (mostly after dark)…but eventually increasing onshore winds and adding some rain/drizzle into the mix.

Most spots with WNW exposure will be in the chest high range with some shoulder high+ sets. The standout NW breaks in the better winter regions like Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will have more consistent head high surf with some sets going overhead on the lower tides.

Wind/weather is where we are going to have the issues…most of the forecasts are calling for WNW winds that pick up here on Monday night to hold steady straight through Tuesday morning, which, if that is the case, will keep things pretty sloppy for most areas. A couple of the forecast models…the COAMPS and the NOAA/NWS graphical models to be precise…are showing a little bubble of light winds right along the coast line through the early morning. I don’t think we should hold our breath…but there might be a chance at some lighter winds, maybe even semi-clean conditions during the dawn patrol. Check out the COAMPS for the morning…see the gap that follows the coast…the COAMPS is calling for winds under 5 knots for the morning.

So not much of a surf day Tuesday…but a glimmer of hope early in the morning. Personally I am going to just keep an eye on the wind tonight and if it looks like it is lying down I will set my alarm a little earlier and see how things held together overnight. I wouldn’t burn a lot of gas getting to the beach, but if winds look light and you live close it might be worth a quick drive-by. If the winds increase later tonight you might just want to sleep in.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/30/2010 Tuesday
04:06AM LDT -0.7 L
10:05AM LDT 4.8 H
04:00PM LDT 0.3 L
10:05PM LDT 5.9 H


Anonymous said...

Adam, you're forecasts are too accurate.

I cracked an eye around 4am to see if the wind had died down. My 'indicator' tree was motionless, so I got excited and rolled out of bed.

Wrong! As I stood up, my next check was my neighbor's fan palm, but it was gently swaying in the breeze. Crap!

Now I needed to walk out in the dark/cold onto my patio to make sure. Geeze - obviously windy with the storm moving in quick.

Oh well. Should have listened to you and stayed asleep.

Adam Wright said...

ha thanks...I would always rather be wrong when I am forecasting crappy conditions.

I totally have my "indicator trees" that I can see out my bedroom window too! What is classic is that I had a bunch of big ass crows nesting in my usual one and they would rustle the branches all sometimes I would look out and see the branches moving and be all "crap! it was supposed to be clean this morning!" but it was just the stupid birds.

Anonymous said...

pockets of offshore goodness this morning in south san diego. went from light offshore to a motionless flag on the pier. very nice. wind only went funky at about 10:30am.

Anonymous said...

Parts of north county san diego went from calm to offshore this morning as well. Tide swamped things a bit though.

You concerned friend said...

Adam.....Do you think the crows are somehow connected to your friends in the water.....the dolphins? Do you think maybe there is some kind of 'nature conspiracy' starting to swirl in your world? Have you noticed any more squirrels running rough-shod in your yard? Hmmmmmm.

Adam Wright said...

I wouldn't put it past those smug overgrown guppies (look at me! I can swim 1000 miles and hour and catch any wave I want...hahaha you suck monkey-person) to pay off some crows to mess with the feng shui of my bedroom...

...but I don't think the dolphin mafia would hook up with them full time.

Anonymous said...

don't be so sure Adam. don't be so sure...