Monday, March 22, 2010

Monday’s Surf – Monday Morning quickie

Monday is looking like surf day…but there may be some more fog issues in the morning (and a little fog texture to go along with it) which may keep it from being a “very good” surf day.

In the water we have a mix of holding WNW-NW swell (285-300) and some building SW swell (200-220). The swell models really like this SW swell for some reason but I am still a little leery of both the size and consistency since the energy heading towards Socal is going right through the the SPAC islands and that always does some funky chicken with the energy, usually chewing out some of the size and the consistent.

That being said…some initial energy from this new SW’er is actually showing on the buoys this evening…O-side has about ½ a foot of energy around 20-seconds right now…and the swell is supposed to get bigger as it fills in more over the next couple of days. Check out the buoy from Sunday night.

Sizewise…things look pretty fun…the average spot will see lots of surf in the waist-chest high range with a few shoulder high sets sneaking into the well exposed combo breaks. The standout SW/WNW-NW facing spots will see more consistent chest-shoulder high surf with some head high (and probably bigger) sets sneaking in when the two swells manage to combo up properly.

Winds look ok…only ok…in the morning. There is still a little instability holding in the upper level of the atmosphere…which tweaking out stuff down on the surface. For the most part it looks like light and variable winds on tap for most areas…with a few pockets of some light offshore texture around LA and Ventura…and then some similar onshore pockets around Orange County and parts of San Diego (which is German for “whale’s vagina”…well at least that is what Ron Burgundy told me! )

Winds shift onshore around midmorning and then continue to increase…going variable onshore around 10-15 knots for most exposed areas.

I think it is going to end up being a bit of a funky day on Monday…mostly because the wind/weather/swell aren’t lined up all that well. For example we might see plenty of S-SW/WNW-NW swell at a break but most of the surf will be buried by the fog and roughed up buy the winds that always see to go along with it. That being said…sometimes you can pony up for a foggy session and find some playful peaks hiding out in the mist. At this point I think that getting on it early will be the best call…the winds start to push in pretty early during midmorning and it looks like they it could be a bit breezy by the afternoon. I would probably stick with the S-SW facing points/reefs…but the combo spots, particularly the beach breaks with good exposure and groomed sandbars…could end up being pretty fun too.

Here are the tides…have a good one…looks like more offshore winds and bigger swell on tap by the middle of the week…so if you don’t get some of this one…there will be some more chances later.

03/22/2010 Monday
01:16AM LDT 4.7 H
09:48AM LDT 0.4 L


Anonymous said...

hey man i gotta ask.. when exactly am i suposed to use your"forcast?"...after i have already gone surfing and get back home?

Jonathan M said...

It says Adam posted Monday's report at 2:01 am. That's two hours into the day.

I highly doubt you went surfing between the hours of 12:01 am and 2:01 am. If you did, tough luck. AW is doing you a favor.

And it's spelled: supposed and forecast.

Anonymous said...

jon m has a point. this is free tips the scale way toward the side of awesome.
but anon has a point, too. the report is not timely on a very consistent basis. this doesn't seem like a hobby anymore, so "showing up on time" seems like the least amount of professionalism a consumer could come to expect (read: professionalism doesn't mean take away the bad ass artwork).
despite that, it sounds like mr. wright has a life and family, and his work far outweighs the somewhat scattered nature of report times.
you should be able to gather from other sources and mr. wright's long-range forecast what the surf will look like anyway. suck it up, buttercup, and take a chance on tomorrow if you're in doubt.