Friday, March 5, 2010

Waves for the Weekend – Fun Saturday morning and then things get weird

Saturday will be surfable, particularly if you don’t mind the surf being on the smaller side. A new storm moves in Saturday afternoon/evening and holds into Sunday were it makes the conditions get all fugly.

Saturday will see a mix of fading WNW-NW energy, some long-period but very steeply angled NW swell (295-300+), and some playful/inconsistent SSW-SW swell (190-220).

Most spots will see surf in the knee-waist high range on Saturday with some waist-chest high sets at the better combo breaks, and even a couple chest-shoulder peaks setting up at the standout NW/SW combo spots.

Winds look good for the morning…mostly light/variable to light easterly for the dawn patrol…and a little ESE-SE flow around San Diego. These winds will stay light through midday and then start to shift to the S-SW around 15-20 knots by late in the afternoon...expect some rain to come along with the switch as well.

Sunday the local windswell comes up a couple of notches but the wind comes along with it…we will also have the steeper NW’er, the WNW-NW leftovers, and the background SSW-SW swell.

The surf will continue to be in the waist-high range for most of the average spots…with some more consistent chest high sets mixing it at spots with more exposure to the windswell. The standout NW breaks and the excellent combo spots will see some chest-shoulder high surf, possibly even a couple of bigger sets. Unfortunately shape doesn’t look that great since there will be all sorts of really short-period chop sloshing around…it will end up being one of those days where you will have to sacrifice surf size for cleaner shape…which is a sucky trade in my book.

Who the f_@k knows what the wind is going to do on Sunday…the storm that has been threatening to move into Socal will finally be here and none of the models know where it is going, or how fast it might move through. Check out the COAMPS for Sunday morning…this is how a model just shrugs its shoulders and goes out drinking.

As you can see it is forecasting some sort of crazy mutant eddy…with pretty stiff onshore winds for OC and all spots southward…and then offshore winds from the South Bay on north (until you get to the central coast then it is onshore again?). Really I would just keep your eye on conditions, check the weather stations and the surf cams, and if it looks manageable then go get some. Saturday will be much cleaner…but with as tweaked as this model is I don’t think I would completely write-off Sunday yet.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/06/2010 Saturday
12:31AM LST 4.8 H
08:28AM LST 0.5 L
03:18PM LST 2.6 H
06:31PM LST 2.4 L

03/07/2010 Sunday
01:41AM LST 4.4 H
10:09AM LST 0.5 L
05:53PM LST 2.9 H
08:36PM LST 2.8 L


Kev's DWBH said...

When are the south swells coming back! I need wedge to break bad!

PS You are the most reliable surf casting source I have ever seen. AND FREE!!!

Mike said...

Ditto on what Kev said.

My next board will be a Stamps board and I will make sure they absolutely understand I am buying it because they advertise on your site.