Waves for the Weekend – Fun Saturday morning and then things get weird

Saturday will be surfable, particularly if you don’t mind the surf being on the smaller side. A new storm moves in Saturday afternoon/evening and holds into Sunday were it makes the conditions get all fugly.

Saturday will see a mix of fading WNW-NW energy, some long-period but very steeply angled NW swell (295-300+), and some playful/inconsistent SSW-SW swell (190-220).



Most spots will see surf in the knee-waist high range on Saturday with some waist-chest high sets at the better combo breaks, and even a couple chest-shoulder peaks setting up at the standout NW/SW combo spots.

Winds look good for the morning…mostly light/variable to light easterly for the dawn patrol…and a little ESE-SE flow around San Diego. These winds will stay light through midday and then start to shift to the S-SW around 15-20 knots by late in the afternoon...expect some rain to come along with the switch as well.



Sunday the local windswell comes up a couple of notches but the wind comes along with it…we will also have the steeper NW’er, the WNW-NW leftovers, and the background SSW-SW swell.



The surf will continue to be in the waist-high range for most of the average spots…with some more consistent chest high sets mixing it at spots with more exposure to the windswell. The standout NW breaks and the excellent combo spots will see some chest-shoulder high surf, possibly even a couple of bigger sets. Unfortunately shape doesn’t look that great since there will be all sorts of really short-period chop sloshing around…it will end up being one of those days where you will have to sacrifice surf size for cleaner shape…which is a sucky trade in my book.

Who the f_@k knows what the wind is going to do on Sunday…the storm that has been threatening to move into Socal will finally be here and none of the models know where it is going, or how fast it might move through. Check out the COAMPS for Sunday morning…this is how a model just shrugs its shoulders and goes out drinking.



As you can see it is forecasting some sort of crazy mutant eddy…with pretty stiff onshore winds for OC and all spots southward…and then offshore winds from the South Bay on north (until you get to the central coast then it is onshore again?). Really I would just keep your eye on conditions, check the weather stations and the surf cams, and if it looks manageable then go get some. Saturday will be much cleaner…but with as tweaked as this model is I don’t think I would completely write-off Sunday yet.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/06/2010 Saturday
12:31AM LST 4.8 H
08:28AM LST 0.5 L
03:18PM LST 2.6 H
06:31PM LST 2.4 L

03/07/2010 Sunday
01:41AM LST 4.4 H
10:09AM LST 0.5 L
05:53PM LST 2.9 H
08:36PM LST 2.8 L

Thursday’s Surf – Dropping WNW-NW swell and increasing NW winds

At first glance Thursday doesn’t look like much of a surf day…but after looking at it a little closer there may be a few little surf windows that open up in the morning.

The WNW-NW swell (285-300 but with the peak of the energy coming in at 290-300) will be fading on Thursday as it mixes with some building NW windswell and some new background SW swell (200-220). There will still be plenty of swell in the water but overall it will feel smaller and less consistent compared to Wednesday.



Average WNW facing spots will be in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets showing on the lower tides. The standout NW facing breaks, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will be in the shoulder-overhead range with sets going a couple of feet overhead in the morning…but becoming a little less consistent and smaller throughout the afternoon.

Winds don’t look great on Thursday…neither does the weather when you get right down to it…but really who cares about a little rain/drizzle at this point. It looks like NW flow will start up pretty early on Thursday (if it ever backs down from Wednesday night)…the strongest winds, NW winds around 10-15 knots, will be up around Santa Barbara, Ventura, and down through parts of South San Diego. LA and OC will have similar NW winds but speeds look a bit lighter…mostly below 10-knots for the morning along with a couple of semi-clean looking pockets showing through North LA and North OC. NW winds 15-20+ knots will be on tap through the afternoon.



Once again we can’t quite get all of the pieces to come together…we have decent tides, plenty of swell, but the wind/weather is going to funk things up. I wouldn’t spend a ton of time looking for waves tomorrow but if you have a spot with some NW wind protection close by it might be worth giving it a check in the morning. Points/reefs will continue to have the best shape…but there may be a little more NW/SW combo as the WNW-NW’er backs off and the new SW’er fills in a touch more.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/04/2010 Thursday
05:52AM LST 0.1 L
11:46AM LST 3.6 H
05:16PM LST 1.2 L
11:40PM LST 5.1 H

Waves for the Weekend – Sloppy Saturday, then cleaner Sunday with some large stormy W swell

Saturday does not look like surf day. Sunday will be much bigger as new W swell arrives but wind/conditions may not clean up all that much.

So Saturday will start with mosty leftovers, buried by the high tide, early in the morning…it will also have plenty of increasing S-SW winds and increasing periods of rain. By the afternoon a large shot of W-NW swell (275-300) starts to arrive, this will build overnight and eventually peak on Sunday. The stormy S-SW winds will turn NW’erly after midnight on Saturday and hold that NW’erly flow through most of Sunday.



Saturday will be pretty small in the morning…mostly knee-waist high at the average spots and some chest high+ sets at the standout WNW-NW spots. Shape will be slow and soft thanks to the high tide. Add in the S-SW winds (10-15+ knots) and it sounds like a good reason to stay in bed. There may be a couple of protected spots through the morning but the tide and lack of swell won’t really let much surf sneak into those areas.



Sunday a much, much bigger W-NW swell (275-300) arrives and peaks throughout the day. At this point the swell looks pretty hefty, particularly at the spots that have direct exposure to the WNW-NW.



Look for surf in the easy shoulder-overhead range for most W facing breaks. The better WNW facing spots will be running consistently head high to a couple of feet overhead…and possibly bigger at times. The top NW facing breaks, in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will have surf in the overhead to well overhead range and sets hitting near the double-overhead range. The swell actually gets a direct shot at Southern San Diego…so there is a shot at some bigger surf filtering into that region.

Winds look a bit suspect, but overall not as bad as Saturday…right now the models aren’t really matching up that well…check em out…



You can see that the COAMPS model is pretty heavy on the winds for the morning…showing steady onshore W-WNW winds, 10-20 knots, blowing through most areas pretty much from sunrise on.



The NWS graphical forecast is showing NW winds, strongest up around Ventura and Santa Barbara, but lighter as you move down through LA, OC, and San Diego.

Personally I don’t really trust either of the models all that much…a lot is going to depend on how fast the front moves through the area Saturday afternoon/night…if it can speed through we will see the ridge build in faster that would help clean up conditions. Based on what I am seeing I think that we plan on some light/moderate WNW-NW winds for the morning, maybe not enough to blow it out…but enough to get some bump texture on things. If you have to surf (in the poo water) then I would plan on sticking to spots that can handle the NW winds…you might even want to check some of the lesser exposed areas, there will be enough W in this swell to wrap energy into the more S-SW facing breaks, it won’t be as big as the W facing spots but they might dodge the wind a bit better.

When you get down to it this is another one of those weekends where, since we have a ton of swell in the water, that it may pay off to keep your “weather eye” on conditions…hopefully the dynamic nature of the storm will crack open a few surf windows as it passes on through. As usual if you surf send me a report and let me know how it is.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/27/2010 Saturday
01:38AM LST 0.9 L
07:37AM LST 6.1 H
02:29PM LST -1.2 L
08:37PM LST 4.8 H

02/28/2010 Sunday
02:26AM LST 0.4 L
08:23AM LST 6.0 H
03:03PM LST -1.1 L
09:10PM LST 5.2 H

Waves for Wednesday – Starting slow but building through the afternoon

Wednesday will be more surfable than the last couple of days…but not really in the morning.

For most regions don’t expect to see much, if any, increase in surf for the dawn patrol. A new mix of WNW-NW swell, a blend of both windswell from local winds and some medium-short period energy from a storm further off the California Coast, will be slowly filling in through the day. This new WNW-NW energy will be pushing in from 280-300 degrees but the main part of the swell will be a steeper angled 290-300 degrees. SW swell (200-220) will be slowly pushing up in the background as well…but will be pretty small and inconsistent overall.

Wednesday Morning…around 5am



Wednesday afternoon…around 5pm



Wave heights for the morning will continue to be the ankle-knee high shore-lappers we saw on Tuesday...the high tide will still be an issue…so don’t expect much in the way of rideable shape. The top spots will be slightly bigger…knee-waist high on sets…but again soft and slow on the shape.

The counties closer to Point Conception, Santa Barbara and Ventura, have a shot at seeing a little more surf in the morning as the new swell wraps into the region. I don’t think we should expect a big increase…but it will be worth at least looking at the cams, and maybe a real quick drive-by if you live close.

By the afternoon…we can expect the average WNW facing spots to build into the waist-chest high range…and the top spots, mostly through Ventura, to see some chest-shoulder high+ surf. San Diego and South Bay standouts may have some similar sizes by sundown…but it looks like a lot of the energy will arrive after dark. (Curse you short winter days!) Make sure to check out your regional forecast for more details.

Winds are not the greatest looking on Wednesday…the remains of a cold front are expected to push through the area…driving up WNW-NW winds across the region. These look the strongest up towards Santa Barbara and Ventura…and a bit more mellow as you head down towards OC and San Diego. I don’t think it will be all that bad through the morning…mostly light/variable flow early, but it does look like those winds will increase pretty quickly.

Wednesday AM Winds



Wednesday PM winds



I wish that the surf would hurry up and get here...I missed out on the weekend windswell so it feels like forever since we had waves. Unfortunately we will have to wait at least a little longer for the swell mix to fill in. Personally I am going to start checking the beach as the tide drops around lunchtime…hopefully the local winds won’t get too bad before a few new lines start coming in.

Here are the tides…

11/18/2009 Wednesday
02:40AM LST 2.4 L
08:50AM LST 6.0 H
04:26PM LST -0.5 L
10:58PM LST 3.6 H

Links for the regional forecasts…

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/