Waves for Wednesday – More S-SW swell and more gloom

Wednesday will be surfable...even decent sized in some of the exposed areas but Sir Edward will be trying to spin up again, so don’t expect completely clean conditions.

The mix of overlapping S-SW swell (180-210) will continue to hold on Wednesday, thanks to a new S-SW swell blending into the existing Southern Hemi energy, while the WNW-NW windswell starts to build up in the background.



Most spots are going to see surf in the chest-high range on Wednesday with a few of the average S-SW facing spots seeing shoulder high sets. The standout S-SW facing spots and the best combo breaks, mostly in Orange County and San Diego, will be in the chest-head high range with a few head high+ sets showing on the lower tides. Sets will be a touch inconsistent (it is a Southern Hemi swell) but the standouts should have plenty of in-betweeners, particularly at breaks that can combo in the increasing windswell.

Winds in the morning actually look semi-manageable…the eddy will be in place but it doesn’t seem super strong. Santa Barbara will have some NNW flow but mostly under 10-knots. These winds are a touch more N for Ventura, again starting off below the 8-10 knots. LA County gets the topside of the eddy circulation which makes for E-SE winds through the region (showing cleanest in the South Bay). Orange County will see some S-SE winds in the 2-3 knot range, enough to add some texture, but still clean (and semi-offshore) in a few spots. San Diego will have some S-SE flow as well…a touch stronger, around the 5-knot range, in the Southern part of the county and cleaner as you move up toward the north end of the county. The onshore flow for all region kicks up around lunchtime and we can expect W-WNW 10-15 knots by the afternoon.







So even though the overcast skies and eddy circulation will continue on Wednesday it does look fairly surfable for the morning…granted the eddy has a tendency to do whatever it wants despite the forecasts…so you might want to give the wind obs a quick check before jumping in the car for any sort of longer distance. I think that the S-SW facing points and reefs will have some of the best shape…but the well exposed combo beach breaks will probably be fun too…really I think that protection from the S winds will probably be the best call if you have to decide between the type of breaks.

Here are the tides…hope you get a few humpday waves before the winds get on it tomorrow.

06/09/2010 Wednesday
02:22AM LDT -0.1 L
08:36AM LDT 3.2 H
01:11PM LDT 2.0 L
07:29PM LDT 5.8 H

Thursday’s Surf – Playful morning…breezy by lunch

Thursday will have a surf window in the morning, but winds are going to spin up fast…so watch for conditions to fall apart around 10-11am.

In the water we will have a mix of small SSW swell (190-210) and some building background NW windswell. The SSW swell will lose energy slowly through the afternoon, while the NW windswell starts to creep up.



Most spots, with decent exposure to either the W or the SSW, will be in the waist high range with a few inconsistent chest high sets. The standout SSW facing breaks will have a few chest-shoulder high sets showing on the lower tides…while the standout NW facing spots will be a bit more consistently around shoulder high by the afternoon (but with fairly sloppy windswell shape hampered by onshore winds).

Winds will be ok in the morning…mostly areas will be light and variable with a couple of pockets of onshore texture here and there, but generally below 5 knots for the breaks in LA on down through San Diego. W winds get an early jump on things up in Santa Barbara and Ventura…so look for westerly flow to increase through mid-morning with stronger WNW-NW flow hitting 20+ knots around midday. The rest of Socal will see 10-18 knot W-NW winds by the late afternoon.



While it won’t be a great surf day on Thursday it will at least be rideable and sort of playful for a few areas. You are going to want to surf early in the day…basically the dawn patrol or shortly afterward…just so you can take advantage of the lighter winds. Any later in the day and you are risking have the surf blow out pretty fast. I think the better combo beach breaks are going to be the best call on Thursday, they will make the best of the smaller, but crossed up, swell mix. You might think about brining a smaller wave board, or some sort of fish, basically something that will work good in the weaker surf.

Here are the tides…

05/20/2010 Thursday
02:11AM LDT 4.4 H
09:39AM LDT 0.0 L
04:36PM LDT 4.1 H
10:20PM LDT 2.1 L

Tuesday’s Surf – Still a bit breezy

Tuesday won’t be a surf day.

The SW swells from the weekend will continue to back down (not that they are showing all that much anyway) and the local windswell will continue to increase…along with the onshore wind.



Most spots will be in the waist-high range with some chest-shoulder high+ sets for the NW standouts (mostly in South San Diego) will see some head high sets at the breaks that focus/like NW windswell.

We may see some pockets of semi-clean conditions really early in the morning but mostly NW winds are forecast to pick up early through midmorning…so a lot of breaks will get onshore chop pushing in pretty fast. These WNW-NW winds will end up topping out 10-15+ before lunch. NW winds 15-20 knots will be on tap for the afternoon. Stupid wind.



I wouldn’t spend much time looking for surf tomorrow...there isn’t a ton of swell in the water and even the windswell is pretty anemic, add that to the onshore winds and funky morning tides and you have a pretty good reason to stay in bed. You might spend a couple of minutes checking it if you live close to the beach and the NW winds don’t work your break over that bad but other than that save your gas for later this week. Personally I am getting some drywall work done…so you can see how fired up I am about this swell.

Here are the tides…

05/11/2010 Tuesday
02:38AM LDT 0.1 L
08:38AM LDT 3.6 H
01:57PM LDT 1.4 L
08:05PM LDT 5.5 H

Friday’s Surf – Still a little breezy…but with a few little bubbles forming

For most areas, and really most of the day, Friday isn’t looking very surfable…but there may be a few areas where winds are a little more northerly (and the spots are positioned a little better) where a few little bubbles of surfy-ness could spring up.

In the water we are going to have a mix of building/peaking NW windswell and some decent sized, but mostly hacked apart, SSW-SW swell (190-210) that will be starting to peak as well.



Sizewise…will be all over the place. Spots with just a bit of exposure will be in the chest high range with some shoulder high sets. The better exposed NW spots, particularly breaks that can pull in a little of the SW combo energy, will be in the shoulder-head high range. The top NW facing breaks, mostly through Southern Ventura and the South Bay, will be head high+ with a few bigger waves mixing in. South SD will be the biggest…with some sets going several feet+ overhead, but with some pretty sloppy shape thanks to most of the energy being NW windswell.

Winds for the most part aren’t looking all that good…the NW flow is forecast to get a jump on things pretty early…and since it really isn’t going to let up tonight…the sloppy shape is going to continue for most areas. There are a few spots (you can see on the map below) where the winds have more of a northerly tint to them…or the overall flow is just lighter…it seems like these little bubbles are setting up near areas that have some pretty decent sized coastal hills…so if you have a little more elevation near your beach (and I didn’t circle it) you might want to give it a look in the morning…don’t drive all that far, but if it is just around the corner it never hurts to check. W-NW winds around 10-20 knots will return for the afternoon.



So while the winds won’t be gale-force onshore…there isn’t going to be a ton of clean up on Friday…at least there will be a couple of semi-manageable areas during the morning (but lets be honest ANYTHING would have been better than the slop that I saw running down the north OC beaches around lunchtime on Thursday). I think your best bet is going to be the S facing spots that have a lot of wind protection…or maybe a couple of the points that have enough “wrap” to the inside section that the NW winds don’t completely trash it. Personally I think my pillow will be the best call…choppy, sloppy, nad-freezing crumblers are not helping motivate me to set my alarm all that early.

Here are the tides…cross your fingers that the wind models are overcalling things (by a lot).

04/30/2010 Friday
05:29AM LDT -1.0 L
11:49AM LDT 3.6 H
04:36PM LDT 1.9 L
10:44PM LDT 5.7 H

Thursday’s Surf – Still a bit windy…

Thursday is not looking very surfable...there may be a couple of sheltered little pockets here and there…but for the most part expect onshore winds (and onshore chop) for the morning and then stronger onshore flow for the afternoon/evening. Stupid wind.

Our swell is going to be a mix of steeply angled NW windswell (290+) that will peak through the morning, and a healthy SSW-SW swell (190-220) that is basically going to get steamrolled by the local wind energy. Check it out…you can see the new SSW-SW swell showing on the Oceanside Buoy already.



And this is how the swell mix will look on Thursday morning.



Most spots are going to average around chest-shoulder high with some head high sets mixing in at the more NW facing spots and the good combo breaks. The purely summer spots will be in the chest-head high range as well…but expect the swell to be a lot more finicky and inconsistent on the sets. The standout NW facing spots in Southern Ventura, the South Bay, will see a lot of overhead surf with some bigger sets mixing in. The even more exposed spots of Southern SD will be consistently head high+ with sets going several feet overhead…and possibly even a few bigger waves showing at the extreme focal breaks.

Soooo…the models are not liking the wind tomorrow morning…but these models also have some…hmmm lets call it “flexibility” (I like to use the term dumb-assedness) as we move through a transitional season like Spring. Basically, they get the winds wrong a lot more than they do in the other more stable times of year. While I am not ready to hold my breath...a dry-cold front, like the one we have moving through is pretty unstable, and the lack of cloud cover means that we could see the air temps drop off pretty quickly over the next several hours. Sometimes the drop in temps can sort of scramble the wind pattern…shifting a WNW flow to something a little more northerly, which means a few more spots, particularly spots exposed to the SSW-SW swell could clean up a bit more than the models suggest. Like I said…I am not holding my breath…but with swell in the water it is always worth a check.





The early morning dawn patrol is going to be your best bet…but watch the negative low-tide drainer…fortunately it hits a bit before sunup…so we might actually have the tides working for us for a change (or the negative low tide will just make everything close out…or it might open some sort of time/space wormhole and drop the swampthing right back into the lineup…I am voting for the latter). I wouldn’t hop right out of bed and jam to the beach though…definitely give your wind indicators a thorough checking and maybe even fire up the computer to see what the wind stations are saying before committing too much time/money/gas

Here are the tides…

04/29/2010 Thursday
04:44AM LDT -1.2 L
10:57AM LDT 3.7 H
04:01PM LDT 1.5 L
10:08PM LDT 6.0 H

Wind for Wednesday – more stupid wind

Wednesday won’t be a surf day…the onshore winds that we saw on Tuesday will continue through Wednesday as well (don’t worry things do eventually clean up on Thursday/Friday).

In the water we will have a mix of steady NW windswell (290-300), some background WNW-NW swell (285-300), and some weak SW energy.



Look for waist-chest high surf at the average exposed breaks while the better NW facing spots see some chest-head high sets. The standout NW facing breaks, mostly through Southern San Diego, see some shoulder-head high+ surf with some bigger sets mixing it up as well. Shape looks pretty poor again for most areas…but the NW winds don’t totally blow out everything…so if you are desperate you might be able to find a hidden little corner out there somewhere.

More freaking wind on tap for Wednesday…WNW-NW winds 10-20 knots for the morning…with some stronger near 25-30 knot gusts setting up by the afternoon.



Not really much in the way of change from Tuesday…there is still windswell and it is still windy…and now the water is starting to look really cold thanks to all the lovely upwelling…basically making it just that much more appealing. I will be sleeping in again tomorrow…hopefully there will be enough leftover windswell to have some fun as things clean up on Thursday.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county so you can find out how windy it will be at your favorite spots.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/10/2010 Wednesday
05:38AM LST 4.5 H
12:55PM LST -0.1 L
07:23PM LST 3.6 H

Tuesday’s onshore wind – go away wind!

Tuesday won’t be a surf day…and since you aren’t surfing you will have more time to create awesome t-shirts.

http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2010/03/calling-all-t-shirt-artists.html

We will have a mix of building NW windswell (290-300), some background WNW-NW energy (285-300), and a touch of SW swell (200-220). Unfortunately for the swell mix the wind generating the windswell will be coming right along with it…so we can expect steady WNW-NW winds blowing throughout the day.



Look for waist-chest high surf at the average exposed breaks while the standout NW facing spots, mostly through Southern San Diego, see some shoulder-head high+ sets. The steeper angle on the NW windswell is going to keep it from reaching most spots…but there will be a few areas in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego that will be able to squeeze some size from it.

A weak cold front moves through Monday night and helps set up some NW winds for Tuesday. Look for WNW-NW winds around 10-12 knots for the morning and then gusts hitting 15-25 knots by the afternoon. Increasing cloudiness but not really any rain expected.



The current forecast run isn’t even showing a glimmer of a morning clean up…but we do have some swell in the water, which means that you might as well do a quick cam check at spots with some exposure to the NW energy…just in case skynet, working with the dolphins, has corrupted the computer models and doesn’t want humans to surf anymore so it is screwing up the wind forecast…I am not saying that it is likely, just don’t rule it out.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county so you can find out how windy it will be at your favorite spots.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/09/2010 Tuesday
04:39AM LST 4.3 H
12:17PM LST 0.0 L
07:03PM LST 3.5 H
11:54PM LST 2.3 L

Monday’s Surf – Hello springtime

Monday does not look like a surf day…though there may be a small surf window early in the morning at a few of the most protected spots.

Our swell will be a mix of steep NW windswell (290-300+), some small medium period NW energy (290-300), and some background SW swell (200-220). In the morning both of the NW swells will be pretty steeply angled so it looks like they will skip past most spots thanks to shadowing from both Point Conception and the nearshore islands…but they will turn a little more westerly (along with the wind) as we head into the afternoon so eventually the WNW facing breaks will get a bit of a bump in windswell energy too.



Average spots…pretty much from Ventura on down through OC…will have surf in the knee-waist high range with a few chest high sets sneaking into the better exposed combo spots. The NW energy will hit San Diego a little better so expect a little more size down that way…most of SD will be in the waist-chest high range (particularly in North SD)…the top South SD spots will be more chest-head high with some inconsistent overhead sets mixing in. Unfortunately SD is going to be a lot more exposed to the wind…so it will pay a price in shape to have the bigger waves.

Winds not looking so hot for Monday. It looks like there is a little variable flow right along the coast from Santa Barbara down through the South Bay…but OC and San Diego can expect WNW-NW winds around 10-15 knots setting up pretty fast around sunrise. All areas will have WNW-NW winds around 10-20 knots for the afternoon with some 25+ knot winds setting up as you get closer to SB/VEN areas.



So, mostly small and windy on Monday, with plenty of cold water thanks to the wind that blew through on Sunday…my that makes Monday’s surf sound like so much fun. If you are jonesing for some waves, and you live really close to the beach in Ventura or LA, it might be worth a quick check early in the morning…but if you miss the dawn patrol I wouldn’t waste a lot of time looking for waves. Personally I am going to be surfing my pillow a little longer in the morning.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…have a great week!

03/08/2010 Monday
03:16AM LST 4.2 H
11:26AM LST 0.3 L
06:37PM LST 3.2 H
10:49PM LST 2.7 L

Waves for the Weekend – Fun Saturday morning and then things get weird

Saturday will be surfable, particularly if you don’t mind the surf being on the smaller side. A new storm moves in Saturday afternoon/evening and holds into Sunday were it makes the conditions get all fugly.

Saturday will see a mix of fading WNW-NW energy, some long-period but very steeply angled NW swell (295-300+), and some playful/inconsistent SSW-SW swell (190-220).



Most spots will see surf in the knee-waist high range on Saturday with some waist-chest high sets at the better combo breaks, and even a couple chest-shoulder peaks setting up at the standout NW/SW combo spots.

Winds look good for the morning…mostly light/variable to light easterly for the dawn patrol…and a little ESE-SE flow around San Diego. These winds will stay light through midday and then start to shift to the S-SW around 15-20 knots by late in the afternoon...expect some rain to come along with the switch as well.



Sunday the local windswell comes up a couple of notches but the wind comes along with it…we will also have the steeper NW’er, the WNW-NW leftovers, and the background SSW-SW swell.



The surf will continue to be in the waist-high range for most of the average spots…with some more consistent chest high sets mixing it at spots with more exposure to the windswell. The standout NW breaks and the excellent combo spots will see some chest-shoulder high surf, possibly even a couple of bigger sets. Unfortunately shape doesn’t look that great since there will be all sorts of really short-period chop sloshing around…it will end up being one of those days where you will have to sacrifice surf size for cleaner shape…which is a sucky trade in my book.

Who the f_@k knows what the wind is going to do on Sunday…the storm that has been threatening to move into Socal will finally be here and none of the models know where it is going, or how fast it might move through. Check out the COAMPS for Sunday morning…this is how a model just shrugs its shoulders and goes out drinking.



As you can see it is forecasting some sort of crazy mutant eddy…with pretty stiff onshore winds for OC and all spots southward…and then offshore winds from the South Bay on north (until you get to the central coast then it is onshore again?). Really I would just keep your eye on conditions, check the weather stations and the surf cams, and if it looks manageable then go get some. Saturday will be much cleaner…but with as tweaked as this model is I don’t think I would completely write-off Sunday yet.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/06/2010 Saturday
12:31AM LST 4.8 H
08:28AM LST 0.5 L
03:18PM LST 2.6 H
06:31PM LST 2.4 L

03/07/2010 Sunday
01:41AM LST 4.4 H
10:09AM LST 0.5 L
05:53PM LST 2.9 H
08:36PM LST 2.8 L

Thursday’s Surf – Dropping WNW-NW swell and increasing NW winds

At first glance Thursday doesn’t look like much of a surf day…but after looking at it a little closer there may be a few little surf windows that open up in the morning.

The WNW-NW swell (285-300 but with the peak of the energy coming in at 290-300) will be fading on Thursday as it mixes with some building NW windswell and some new background SW swell (200-220). There will still be plenty of swell in the water but overall it will feel smaller and less consistent compared to Wednesday.



Average WNW facing spots will be in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets showing on the lower tides. The standout NW facing breaks, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will be in the shoulder-overhead range with sets going a couple of feet overhead in the morning…but becoming a little less consistent and smaller throughout the afternoon.

Winds don’t look great on Thursday…neither does the weather when you get right down to it…but really who cares about a little rain/drizzle at this point. It looks like NW flow will start up pretty early on Thursday (if it ever backs down from Wednesday night)…the strongest winds, NW winds around 10-15 knots, will be up around Santa Barbara, Ventura, and down through parts of South San Diego. LA and OC will have similar NW winds but speeds look a bit lighter…mostly below 10-knots for the morning along with a couple of semi-clean looking pockets showing through North LA and North OC. NW winds 15-20+ knots will be on tap through the afternoon.



Once again we can’t quite get all of the pieces to come together…we have decent tides, plenty of swell, but the wind/weather is going to funk things up. I wouldn’t spend a ton of time looking for waves tomorrow but if you have a spot with some NW wind protection close by it might be worth giving it a check in the morning. Points/reefs will continue to have the best shape…but there may be a little more NW/SW combo as the WNW-NW’er backs off and the new SW’er fills in a touch more.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/04/2010 Thursday
05:52AM LST 0.1 L
11:46AM LST 3.6 H
05:16PM LST 1.2 L
11:40PM LST 5.1 H

Wednesday Waves – More swell with weather in the afternoon

Wednesday is looking a bit funky…there will be new swell in the water, but an approaching cold-front may tweak winds a bit.

We have another round of WNW-NW swell (285-300) that will peak on Wednesday. A lot of this energy is coming in pretty NW in the swell direction (290-300+) so it looks like the biggest surf will be in South San Diego, with Ventura and the South Bay running a close second. There will also be a touch of SW swell (200-220) in the water but it is going to get steamrolled by the more dominant WNW-NW energy.



Look for the average WNW facing breaks to see surf in the shoulder-overhead range on Wednesday with some bigger sets showing a little inconsistently at times. The top NW facing breaks will have surf more in the head high to a couple of feet overhead range with some sets going several feet overhead mixing in on the more favorable parts of the tide swing.

Weather is where we get a little screwed…yet another cold front is forecast to move into the area throughout the day on Wednesday. The timing of this front is still a bit suspect but it looks like some of the wind/weather may start creeping through early in the day, hitting up around SB and Ventura in the morning and then pushing southward through midday and into the afternoon. If this is the case we can expect some W-NW winds around 10-14 knots for SB and Ventura areas…and then sort of variable winds in the other regions. Check out the COAMPS model for around sunrise tomorrow…you can see that funky column of wind tug-o-war setting up over the water between the coast and Catalina. I think that it might be semi-manageable in the early morning, particularly at spots that have some protection from the wind (things like kelp, cliffs, or something else to block the breeze)…but our best bet is going to be giving the wind and surf cams a check in the morning before driving too far.



If you live in the LA/OC/SD areas I would try and keep an eye on things for the morning…we have plenty of swell in the water, the tides are actually sort of good for the early morning, and if we can get the wind to play ball we might have a shot at a halfway decent morning session. I would look for the best shape at points and reefs that can handle the swell…beach breaks may be a bit walled out.

Sorry about the weird update pattern the last few days…my computer has been a bit wonky and I am still in the process of sorting it out. I think this video sums up my feelings about computer issues the best…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ntr-pw_6C0

No regional updates tonight…hopefully I will have everything up and running normally tomorrow.

Here are the tides…

03/03/2010 Wednesday
04:55AM LST -0.1 L
10:48AM LST 4.3 H
04:43PM LST 0.6 L
10:58PM LST 5.4 H

Friday’s Funkiness – Building windswell

Friday won’t be a surf day…it may be rideable in a few spots, but high morning tides and building onshore winds will kill shape pretty fast. Oh and it is Friday the 13th…so that sort of narrows down our odds on dodging the wind bullet.



Our surf will be a mix of building WNW-NW windswell and some background SW energy (200-220). The windswell will be on the rise through the day…but will mostly be coming in from a steep swell angle, so it will skip past most breaks basically showing in a few of the top NW facing areas. The lesser exposed spots will see a slight bump in size but won’t see much change overall.



Look for the average spots to hold around knee high with some inconsistent waist high sets as the tide drops. Top NW facing spots in Ventura, the south Bay, and San Diego, will be more in the waist-chest high range on the lower tides…and may see some chest-shoulder high sets by the afternoon as the swell mix increases.

Winds look semi-manageable for the morning…with light/variable onshore flow in the 5-6 knot range on tap for most of SoCal. Santa Barbara and Ventura areas will see building NW winds 10-15 knots coming through by midmorning and then gusts hitting 20-knots by midday. The rest of Socal will have 10-15 knot NW winds by the afternoon and some stronger gusts coming onshore by sundown and into the early night.



Like I said…it won’t be very appealing out there on Friday…just mostly weak, tide swamped windswell for the morning…with slightly larger and sloppier windswell on tape for the afternoon. Your best bet is going to be keeping an eye on conditions and hoping that we see the tide drop before the winds get going...there may be a little wiggle-room in the timing of the wind switch, particularly at spots in OC/SD…but I wouldn’t plan you day around it. Even if the winds cooperate plan on brining your small, really small, wave gear for most spots.

Here are the tides…

11/13/2009 Friday
06:12AM LST 5.9
H 01:04PM LST 0.1
L 06:59PM LST 4.1 H

Links for the regional forecasts…

Santa Barbara - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/

Surf for Tuesday – Small and sort of sloppy

Tuesday won’t be a surf day…building onshore winds and mostly small morning swell will be a good reason to stay in bed.

We are going to see a mix of mostly leftover WNW and SW energy through Tuesday morning…just background energy still hanging on from the weekend. We will have building NW windswell starting to increase wave heights throughout the day but the NW winds are coming right along with it.



Wave heights are going to be mostly knee high at the average spots through the morning. The standout NW facing breaks will be more in the waist-chest high range on inconsistent sets. The top NW-WNW facing spots will start to see an increase in short-period windswell by the afternoon that will push size more into the chest high+ range with a few shoulder high sets coming through before dark.

Winds look pretty lame tomorrow…strong onshore flow is expected for most of the morning in the Santa Barbara and Ventura areas. Some of the models are showing a slight eddy spin setting up shop around Long Beach…possibly helping to both lighten wind speeds and bend winds back around to the S-SW for San Diego, Orange County, and the South Bay. Check out the COAMPS forecast for the morning.



You can see the eddy spin pretty clearly defined…just south of Long Beach Harbor. I am not sure how realistic this forecast is…but if it can pull together this way we could see pretty manageable winds for the South Bay, North OC, and then more S-SW’erly flow through San Diego (which a couple spots can handle down that way).

So for tomorrow…don’t be in a hurry to get down to the beach…even if the winds are lighter than the current forecast says they will be, we still won’t have any significant swell…and in my experience there isn’t much of a difference between bumpy/flat and smooth/flat. Personally I am going to cross my fingers that we get a lot of windswell spun up on Tuesday so that it can power enough rideable energy into Wednesday when conditions start to clean up,

Here are the tides…

06:36AM LDT 4.1 H
12:20PM LDT 2.5 L
05:34PM LDT 4.0 H

Waves for the Weekend – Sort of Ok Saturday…looking nasty Sunday

We will have some surf this weekend…but it looks like weather/winds are going to give it a good whacking with the ugly stick on Sunday.

Swellwise we will have a mix of building S-SSW swell (180-210) that starts to fill in on Saturday, peaking eventually Sunday and Monday. We will also have a large lump of WNW-NW windswell building in Saturday night and holding through Sunday before starting to drop off on Monday…of course this is being set up by the gusty winds forecast for Sunday…so it looks pretty sloppy.



On Saturday our surf will average around waist-chest high through the morning…mostly at the better S facing spots…but showing at the better combo spots as well. The new S-SSW swell will fill in more as we move through the day…and will be able to send some chest-shoulder high+ sets to the S-facing standouts by later in the afternoon…but conditions may not hold together long enough for us to pick many off.

Saturday’s conditions don’t start off bad…mostly overcast and maybe a bit foggy…but winds are expected to be mostly light and variable through the morning. There may be some light texture at the more exposed spots, but overall it should be manageable. The onshore flow definitely increases throughout the day with W-NW winds hitting 10-20 knots by sundown and possibly seeing some 30-knot gusts at times.

Saturday Morning Winds



Saturday Night Weather



Sunday the new swell mix, both S-SSW swell and the new WNW-NW windswell, will peak and push some decent sized, but very sloppy surf into the exposed spots. Average breaks will be in the chest-shoulder high+ range with some head high sets hitting at times. Top spots, mostly the combo breaks and good S facing spots, will be more consistently in the shoulder-head high range with overhead sets at times. San Diego looks like it may be even bigger, it sort of depends on how much traction the NW windswell gets, but if it lives up to forecasts we could see a stacked up, consistently overhead, jumbled up mess. Good times.

Forecasts are calling for rain and onshore wind throughout the day on Sunday. Looks like W winds on tap in the morning around 10-15+ knots and gusts going 15-25 knots in some areas. Conditions look similar through the afternoon.

Sunday Morning Winds



Sunday Morning Weather



So Saturday looks like the best call (duh Adam)…it won’t be great…but the conditions should hold up long enough to get out and ride a couple…particularly through the morning. S-facing spots will be the biggest, but look for rideable sizes at the combo spots as well. Sunday looks like a cold-ugly mess...W winds are sort of universally bad for Socal, and even spots that have some marginal protection are likely to get pretty trashed. I always recommend keeping a “weather eye” on conditions…just because when things get this unstable sometimes the storm slips through the region faster than the models think it will…so there is an outside chance that conditions might improve (“more like 1 in a million llyod”…so you are telling me there’s a chance!). Don’t waste any time driving to look at it…but you might want to check the various cams/buoys/wind stations if things feel like they are shifting around.

Here are the tides…have a good one!

Saturday
02:59AM LDT 0.8 L
09:01AM LDT 5.4 H
03:29PM LDT 0.5 L
09:25PM LDT 4.7 H

Sunday
03:22AM LDT 1.1 L
09:24AM LDT 5.7 H
04:04PM LDT 0.3 L
10:04PM LDT 4.5 H

Surf for Thursday – more tropical swell

Thursday could be a surf day…but we sort of need the winds to get their crap together tonight for the pieces to fall completely into place.

Swellwise we are seeing a new, slightly building S-SW swell (190-210) from Tropical Storm Linda, some new NW windswell, and some background SW swell (210-220). It doesn’t look like much on the CDIP…but the mix we have in the water right now was putting a few fun sets into the exposed areas on Wednesday…it should look like this tomorrow.





Average spots, with only OK exposure to the mix of swells or are just limited to one direction or the other, will be in the knee-waist high range with a few waist high+ sets on the lower tides. The top S-SW spots, and the excellent combo breaks, will be more consistently in the waist-chest high range with a few chest-shoulder high peaks setting up during the better tides.

Winds are where things get a little more dicey…the current forecast run is showing some W winds around 5-6 knots for the morning, which is really a direction that does no one any good. Hopefully the winds can lay down a bit more tonight and we can dodge the bumpy bullet. At this point though it looks like we should try and find some spots that have some protection from the onshore wind…places with high cliffs and/or kelp…since they will be a bit cleaner than the wide open spots. Look for building NW winds 10-15 knots by the afternoon.



With some decent little swell mix forming up for tomorrow I wish that the winds were better looking…but even with the threat of morning bump I do think that it is worth getting up and checking it, particularly if you are near a decent S-SW facing spot, like those in Orange County, parts of Northern LA, and a few of the Northern SD areas as well. If you live a ways from the beach I would at least try to power through some surf cams in the morning to make sure your target spots aren’t too chunky.

Here are the tides…I am going to look around for the wind switch and see if I can set it to light/variable.

01:38AM LDT 3.0 H
05:57AM LDT 2.4 L (a pretty fat low-tide)
12:53PM LDT 5.2 H
09:04PM LDT 1.0 L

Waves for the Weekend – Fading but fun

We are going to have some surf this weekend...nothing special...but the water is warming up, there is some swell in the water, and the weather should be nice...which in my mind makes it a surf weekend.

Swellwise we will have some fading S-SW swell (180-210), dropping SE swell, and increasing NW windswell. Check out the sideways forecast...you can see the S-SW swell dropping out and more NW windswell coming in by Sunday/Monday.



Wave heights on Saturday will continue to hold around waist-chest high at the average spots. The standout S-SW facing spots, and the best combo breaks (mostly through OC and parts of SD), will be in the chest-shoulder high range. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few bigger sets at the standout S facing spots through the low-tide in the morning.

On Sunday the S facing spots will be smaller...the average spots will be backing down to waist high...the standout spots will back down into the chest high range. The better NW windswell/combo spots will be more consistently in the chest-high+ range.

Winds look decent for the weekend...slightly eddyish again...but manageable through the mornings. Both Saturday and Sunday will have variable to slightly S winds in the 5 knot range. W winds around 10-14 knots will build in through the afternoons.

Saturday Morning Winds



Sunday Morning Winds



Overall I think there will be a few playful waves this weekend. Again nothing super special...just fun, and fairly consistent thanks to the mix of swells. I actually expect the beach breaks to get a bit more workable on Sunday as the S-SW swells back off and the windswell fills in...the combo breaks could be a good call on that low-to-high tide push through midmorning. Tides will be an issue at times this weekend so try and pick spots that can work with the morning low tides.

Here are the tides...have a great weekend!

Saturday
06:28AM LDT 0.1 L
12:58PM LDT 3.9 H
06:14PM LDT 2.3 L
11:50PM LDT 4.5 H

Sunday
06:56AM LDT 0.5 L
01:32PM LDT 4.1 H
07:12PM LDT 2.3 L

Surf for Tuesday – Building WNW-NW energy

Tuesday looks like a marginal surf day.

We will have some building swell but shape and winds could make things a bit funky. We are going to see new WNW-NW swell, a medium-period/windswell combo, that fills in overnight and peaks through Tuesday afternoon/Wednesday before fading out. On Tuesday it will mix with some very background SW leftovers as well.



I am not super stoked on this WNW’er even though the model likes it...the storm didn’t have a ton of wind...and the actual 10-14 second energy that the WavewatchIII model is calling for isn’t all that much (only about 2-3’ of deepwater energy). The majority of the “size” in the model is forecast to be generated by local windswell (thanks to strengthening winds in the outer waters). Ideally these 2 swells will blend nicely and we will get to have some fun...but realistically I think that they will be a bit gutless and stacked/lumpy as they overlap.

Sizewise the WNW facing spots can expect some chest high+ surf with some bigger sets coming through on the lower tides. The standout NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego will have more consistent shoulder-high+ surf with some head high sets in the afternoon. Shape like I said will be a little suspect but there are always those windswell breaks that can be playful.

Winds will be ok to marginal...a lot will depend on how much the eddy spins up overnight. Right now it looks like Ventura/Santa Barbara will have some NW flow around 10+ knots through the morning. LA will be more variable thanks to the eddy swirl. OC and SD will be variable to light out of the S in the morning...but look for more SW bump by midmorning. W-NW winds 10-15 knots move in by the afternoon.



Since the WNW energy has some fairly steep swell angles (some of the energy is 295+) San Diego is going to see the most size tomorrow...with Ventura and the South Bay running pretty close. I don’t think it is worth driving to any of these areas since there will be waves in almost every other region but if you are located somewhere in between I would check those spots first. With winds being questionable I would probably give the cams/buoys/weather-stations a check in the morning before committing to driving any sort of distance.

Here are the tides...oh and it sucks that Cinco de Mayo is on a Tuesday this year.

01:43AM LDT 0.5 L
07:29AM LDT 4.0 H
01:25PM LDT 0.7 L
07:40PM LDT 5.4 H

Surf for Monday – Building WNW combo along with some wind

Monday’s isn’t looking like a surf day.

We will have some rideable waves but it looks like onshore winds are going to be pretty persistent throughout the day.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of fading SW swell (190-210, that peaked over the weekend but is now slowly backing down), some building local WNW windswell, and a bit of medium period WNW swell (290-300) pushing in from a storm out in the Gulf of Alaska that formed up later last week.

The average spots will have surf in the waist-chest high range while the better SW/NW facing spots see shoulder high sets. The standout combo spots, mostly through San Diego, South OC and South Ventura, will have some head high sets sneaking through by the afternoon.

Unfortunately the forecasted wind looks a bit like poop…W-NW flow 10-12 knots is forecast to be onshore in the morning and it will just continue to build into the 15+ knot range by the afternoon.



With that being said there is a chance at some lighter winds early in the morning, particularly at spots that can handle a little more of the WNW wind-flow. I don’t think it will be worth driving super far for a spot like that…but if you have one in close-range you might want to give it a quick glance. Personally I am going to give the cams a quick check in the morning before getting in the car…and I will probably shine it if the winds are still holding on. Overall we can expect a moderately windy day with choppy crossed up surf at the more exposed breaks.

Here are the tides…

12:52AM LDT 1.2 L
06:28AM LDT 4.1 H
12:47PM LDT 0.4 L
07:09PM LDT 5.1 H