Wednesday Waves – More swell with weather in the afternoon

Wednesday is looking a bit funky…there will be new swell in the water, but an approaching cold-front may tweak winds a bit.

We have another round of WNW-NW swell (285-300) that will peak on Wednesday. A lot of this energy is coming in pretty NW in the swell direction (290-300+) so it looks like the biggest surf will be in South San Diego, with Ventura and the South Bay running a close second. There will also be a touch of SW swell (200-220) in the water but it is going to get steamrolled by the more dominant WNW-NW energy.



Look for the average WNW facing breaks to see surf in the shoulder-overhead range on Wednesday with some bigger sets showing a little inconsistently at times. The top NW facing breaks will have surf more in the head high to a couple of feet overhead range with some sets going several feet overhead mixing in on the more favorable parts of the tide swing.

Weather is where we get a little screwed…yet another cold front is forecast to move into the area throughout the day on Wednesday. The timing of this front is still a bit suspect but it looks like some of the wind/weather may start creeping through early in the day, hitting up around SB and Ventura in the morning and then pushing southward through midday and into the afternoon. If this is the case we can expect some W-NW winds around 10-14 knots for SB and Ventura areas…and then sort of variable winds in the other regions. Check out the COAMPS model for around sunrise tomorrow…you can see that funky column of wind tug-o-war setting up over the water between the coast and Catalina. I think that it might be semi-manageable in the early morning, particularly at spots that have some protection from the wind (things like kelp, cliffs, or something else to block the breeze)…but our best bet is going to be giving the wind and surf cams a check in the morning before driving too far.



If you live in the LA/OC/SD areas I would try and keep an eye on things for the morning…we have plenty of swell in the water, the tides are actually sort of good for the early morning, and if we can get the wind to play ball we might have a shot at a halfway decent morning session. I would look for the best shape at points and reefs that can handle the swell…beach breaks may be a bit walled out.

Sorry about the weird update pattern the last few days…my computer has been a bit wonky and I am still in the process of sorting it out. I think this video sums up my feelings about computer issues the best…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ntr-pw_6C0

No regional updates tonight…hopefully I will have everything up and running normally tomorrow.

Here are the tides…

03/03/2010 Wednesday
04:55AM LST -0.1 L
10:48AM LST 4.3 H
04:43PM LST 0.6 L
10:58PM LST 5.4 H

Waves for the Weekend – Yes have some!

It will be a surf weekend…and since there is plenty of swell you could probably stop reading right here and still score. (Just stick to the winter spots).

Oh ok I will give you the details…W-WNW swell (270-300) holds into Saturday and then increases on Sunday as another W-WNW swell (270-300) jumps into the mix. There are some small southern hemi swells lurking out there somewhere but I don’t think anyone is going notice them.



On Saturday look for the average W facing breaks to see steady surf in the chest-head high range. The better WNW facing breaks, particularly in the areas known for being good on winter swells, will see consistent shoulder-overhead surf with some sets going a couple of feet overhead at times. The standout WNW-NW facing breaks, (waaaaaaait for it…just a little longer) in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will have surf in the head high to overhead+ range with consistent sets hitting 2-3’ overhead as well as some bigger sets going several feet overhead mixing in at times.



Winds look good on Saturday…nice and clean in the morning with either calm or light/moderate offshore flow. Winds stay pretty light through the day…sort of variable onshore but below the 8-10 knots range. It looks like the winds will back down a bit around sundown…so I would plan on keeping an eye on conditions near the end of the day.



Sunday a new W-WNW swell (270-300) fills in on the back of the first swell. Average spots are going to build into the shoulder-head high range with overhead sets. WNW facing breaks will see consistent surf around head high+ with sets going 2-3’ overhead. Top winter spots with excellent WNW exposure will be consistently in the overhead to well overhead range…with some bombers sneaking through to keep you on your toes.



Winds look good again on Sunday…more light/variable than offshore in the morning…maybe a touch of light texture at the most exposed areas but not enough to matter. Look for variable winds to hold through most of the day with some slightly more onshore flow through the mid-afternoon. Again it looks like light evening winds, so keep an eye on conditions and you might be able to get a little session before dark.

Shapewise…there is enough swell coming through on both Saturday and Sunday that the beach breaks are going to get pretty lined up. Sure there will be some corners, particularly if your beach break has some decent sandbars (that don’t erode away with the increase in swell), or some sort of structure (Coco!) to break up the shape. Points and Reefs are going to have the best shape, but of course they will be the most crowded too, so it is going to be one of those weekends where you might have to compromise shape for a little extra-elbow room. Anyways there is plenty of energy coming through that I am sure you will be able to find something that will be fun to ride. Make sure to check the regional forecasts for more specific details on your home/favorite breaks.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast


Here are the tides…have a good weekend...I hope you score a few!

01/09/2010 Saturday
04:27AM LST 5.3 H
12:11PM LST 0.1 L
06:35PM LST 3.0 H
10:49PM LST 2.3 L

01/10/2010 Sunday
05:20AM LST 5.5 H
01:02PM LST -0.3 L
07:33PM LST 3.3 H
11:50PM LST 2.3 L

Swell Alert – Solid SSW swell for the end of the week

We have a solid SSW swell (180-200) heading to Socal later this week. Look for lots of long-period forerunners to start filling in through the day on Thursday and the peak of the swell arriving Friday and Saturday (July 24th and 25th).

There has been a lot of activity down in the Southern Hemisphere over the last couple of weeks. In general it was your standard SPAC winter storm activity...mostly zonal (west to east) flow with a few bursts of stronger action that would cough out some playful S-SW swell in our direction.



Late last week things started to get a little more interesting...we had a large intense area of low-pressure develop along the higher latitudes just as a very warm, very humid, low-pressure dive-bombed from the tropics/sub-tropics over by New Zealand. These two systems mixed over the weekend and we had legit storm, with consistent 40-50 knot winds, develop right in a key area of our swell window. The result is a nice SSW swell (180-200) heading our way for later this week.



Swell Timing and Sizes

Like I said above...the swell will start to arrive on Thursday July 23rd with some very long swell-periods. Current wave models are showing the swell hitting with some decent energy at 20+ seconds. I don’t expect a ton of new surf showing early on Thursday but it will definitely be increasing in both size and consistency throughout the day. I wouldn’t be surprised to see head high+ sets at the standout S facing breaks (particularly the ones that like long-period energy) by sundown.

By Friday, July 24th, the swell will start to peak (with 18- to 19-second swell-periods), and mix with some weak WNW windswell (not really enough to break it up). Average S facing spots can expect consistent shoulder-head high+ surf with bigger sets mixing in. Top S facing spots, in Orange County, North LA, and North San Diego, will be head high and overhead fairly consistently with sets going 2-3’ overhead on inconsistent bigger sets.

Saturday, July 25th, the SSW swell will continue to peak with sizes similar to Friday...so lots of shoulder-overhead surf at the better summer spots and some overhead+ sets at the standout S facing spots.

Eventually the swell winds down on Sunday but plan on it sending plenty of fun surf into early next week. (More swell from the Southern Hemi will overlap and keep us in waves through the end of the month).

A few notes on this swell

I am expecting the points and reefs to be the call on this swell, there isn’t a lot of windswell forecast to be in the water when this hits...so the beach breaks will likely be pretty walled up and see lots of the lovely South-North current (if I wanted a trendmill so badly I would go to the gym). If you can’t surf a point/reef you might be able to find some workable sections off structures (like piers/jetties)...but I wouldn’t head to those areas unless you are out of other options.

Baja

This swell will hit Baja as nicely as it is hitting SoCal...Northern Baja will have very similar sizes and timing to SoCal. Southern Baja will have a little more size, consistency, and will see the swell hit about a day earlier...so it will build in on Wednesday and peak Thursday/Friday/Saturday before backing down.


Ok that is all I have for now...check the daily forecast updates for more details as we get closer to the swell arriving.

Surf on Thursday - Now with a more coherent forecast!

Thursday will be yet another surf day.

The lovely run of SSW swell will continue on Thursday but it will start to slowly lose a little steam...there will be still plenty of waves at the exposed breaks but the bigger sets will lose a little of the oomph.

Look for the average S facing spots throughout SoCal to have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head high sets.

The standout S-facing surf breaks, mostly through Orange County and Northern San Diego, will have surf in the shoulder-head high range with some overhead sets pushing through. (this is starting to sound like a broken record...a glorious broken record).

Winds look pretty darn good for Thursday...look for light to calm winds through the morning and just W winds around 10-12 knots on tap through the afternoon. Areas with some protection from the afternoon breeze (spots with kelp, high cliffs, or some sort of wind break) may even see a bit of a clean-up late in the day...so there may be some hope for the after-work surf crowd.

The points and reefs are going to be the best call again on Thursday...they are going to be the best at cranking out some long surfable sections. The exposed beach breaks are just too walled with too much current to be much fun. If you have to surf a beach break then try and hit up a spot with a stellar sandbar...preferably with something like a jetty or a pier to help break up the swell. There should be enough swell that the tide won't be that much of a factor but try and pick spots that will work the morning high-tide rather than against it.

The tides for Thursday

2:00AM 0.2 Low
8:25AM 4.0 High
1:32PM 2.3 Low
7:21PM 5.4 High

Wednesday’s Surf – More S, SE, and SW swell

Wednesday will be a surf day…particularly at the S-SE facing breaks through SoCal, especially those in Orange County.

We will have new tropical SE swell showing from Fausto, at the same time we have fading energy from the S swell that hit over the weekend, and we are going to see a mix of new SW swell (and some local NW windswell) help to round us out tomorrow.

Average spots with some S swell exposure will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head high sets. Better spots with exposure to more of the swell mix will see more consistent shoulder-head high surf with some head high+ waves on the inconsistent sets. Standout surf breaks, mostly in Orange County (North OC that is), will be consistently in the shoulder-overhead range with a few sets going a couple of feet+ overhead on the larger sets. The standout breaks will be the ones that can really focus the shorter period SE swells as well as pull in energy from the S-SW.

Winds are forecast to be similar to Tuesday…so while they will be light/variable in the morning they will have a mostly onshore flow. Look for a little texture/lump to some of the more exposed breaks in San Diego and Orange County…and cleaner conditions as you move northward into LA, Ventura, and Santa Barbara. (Don’t go to SB though…not much surf going to show up that way).

Really I think your best bet will be the more classic hurricane swell spots of Orange County. It isn’t going to be massive…or even have all that great shape…but it will be consistently bigger than other spots. If you don’t feel like the drive then I would suggest the better S-SE facing points and reefs hidden in the exposed areas…they are going to hold shape a lot better than the beach breaks and you may even get a little less current to paddle against.

Tuesday's Surf - Solid SW swell...yeah for waves!

Hope you guys got out to surf on Monday...there was quite a bit of SW swell showing out there...(in fact it was a little bigger and bit more consistent than I was expecting.)

I got a lot of feedback from all over SoCal, but particularly from surfers in the OC and San Diego, that there were some good-sized overhead+ sets coming through. North LA was a bit smaller but had some decent shape (if you didn't mind the 4 trillion people sitting on the shoulder and burning you). I even saw a few lefts grinding back up The Point at C-Street in Ventura. If anyone got some pictures...send them over I will post 'em up.

Here is a shot of the CDIP model from Monday afternoon. (Actually look really close at the Santa Barbara area...how sad is that tiny blue dot that is right next to Santa Barbara Harbor...oh well they get good waves in the winter)





Anyway on to the forecast.

Tuesday will be a surf day...with lots of surf at the SW facing breaks.

Surfwise we are going to see the second part of this SW swell start to arrive and peak throughout the day. This new pulse of energy will actually combine right in with the existing SW swell and the mix of WNW windswell that we have holding in the background.

Average breaks with SW exposure will see surf in the chest-shoulder high+ range...with some head high sets on the tide push that comes through after the tide bottoms out midmorning.

Standout SW facing spots in San Diego and Orange County will have consistent surf in the shoulder-head high range with sets going a couple of feet overhead (and bigger) sneaking through inconsistently.

Winds will be ok...there will be some pockets of southerly flow from a weak coastal eddy but in general winds are forecast to be light and variable in the morning. W winds around 10-12 knots build in through the afternoon.

There is enough swell in the water that it is going to be worth spending a little of the gas money to find waves tomorrow. The biggest surf is definitely going to be showing in OC and San Diego. I would look for the best shape at the points and reefs...beach breaks are going to be a bit lined up/closed out and you can expect a pretty strong current (along with dangerous riptides) at the more exposed beaches. Plan on a lot of paddling tomorrow.

If you can't surf Tuesday don't sweat it...there will be plenty of waves from this swell hitting all week.

Have fun and be safe...sorry to sound like your dad...unless of course your dad rips.

Tuesday's Surf - Is that a nice S swell or are you just happy to see me?

So the new S swell was coming on pretty strong on Monday. Naturally the surf was coming up because I was stuck in a business conference in Anaheim all day…(you may send me emails of thanks at a later time for the human sacrifice)…from all of the various reports that I got it sounded like the swell was hitting the OC the most with decent size in both LA and SD as well. Though I didn’t see it personally I heard the Wedge was pushing double-overhead+ on sets. (Send over some pictures to torture me if you have them...I in turn will post them to torture others and the circle of pain can continue.)

Anyway on Tuesday…well the good news is that the S swell will finally peak and we will see some steadily increasing NW windswell arriving through the afternoon to break up the southern hemi energy. The bad news is that the winds are going to get to it a bit more than they did on Monday.

San Diego, Los Angeles, and Ventura
Surfwise…look for most of San Diego and LA to have surf in the shoulder-head high range for Tuesday morning. Both of the winter areas in each region will get bigger and more consistent (and probably start to see overhead sets) as the new NW windswell arrives later in the day. The S facing standouts should have a few overhead sets mixing in for most of the day. Ventura will see the same sizes but with fewer spots exposed to S swell and more exposed to the building NW swell in the afternoon.

Santa Barbara
Santa Barbara will be a bit more shadowed from each swell. Look for surf in the waist-chest high range for the better exposed areas in the morning. Standout NW facing windswell spots will have some bigger shoulder high+ sets by the afternoon.

Orange County
The OC is going to be the biggest tomorrow thanks to its ability to focus S swells, particularly in the North County areas. Look for most S facing breaks to have consistent shoulder-overhead surf while the top spots see sets going a couple of feet overhead+ on the better tides. Extreme focal points, like the Wedge (and others), will have sets going several feet overhead and I wouldn’t be surprised to continue to see some double-overhead+ peaks rolling through. South OC will be a touch smaller than the northern areas but will still have plenty of swell showing. NW windswell fills in through the afternoon…and will most likely bring winds along with it.

Winds and Weather
The eddy spins up a touch more on Tuesday (Wednesday is looking really poopy)…look for S-SE winds around 3-5 knots in the morning. WNW winds around 10-15 knots build in the afternoon. Expect more fog and low clouds in the morning.

Your Best Bet
Sorry for all the headers…just thought I would break it out a little better since there is so much crapola going on…anyway with as much swell coming in we have a lot of choices for surf. Personally I would try to surf in the morning before the winds get too strong. I would also try and stick to spots that protection from the S winds and yet still have some exposure to the S swell…sort of tough to do but worth it if you can pull it off. Look for the biggest surf through North OC…and probably a lot of closeouts on the bigger sets until the NW windswell gets going a bit more.