Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 5/27/2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 5/27/2010

Forecast Overview
Friday will see some rideable but likely wind textured surf as a mix of S-SW swell combos up with some increasing local NW windswell. Conditions clean up a lot on Saturday as the winds shift offshore and beach temps start to rise…the surf will drop slightly but we should continue to have playful leftovers. Good conditions and small but rideable waves hold on Sunday. New S-SW swell hits on Memorial Day along with more nice weather/winds. Further out we will have more Southern Hemi swell pulsing in for most of next week. And finally it looks like our first tropical storm may form as we head into this weekend. Damn that was a long overview.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (S swell + windswell+ winds = funky but rideable)
The overlapping mix of S-SW swell (180-220) will continue on Friday while new NW windswell starts to pulse up in the background. Look for the average spots to be back into the chest-head high range while the standout S facing breaks and good combo spots see some overhead sets. Biggest size will show through San Diego and Orange County but expect surf for most other areas as well. Winds/Weather: Winds continue to look a bit funky...it will be light/variable to light onshore for the morning with winds generally staying below 5-6 knots. Look for W-NW winds around 10-18 knots for the afternoon.



Saturday – (Offshore winds and playful leftovers)
Saturday will have a mix of slowly fading S-SW swell (180-210) and some steady NW windswell. Most spots will be in the chest high range while the standout S facing breaks and the excellent combo spots see some shoulder-head high sets on the lower tides. Expect some inconsistency to the bigger sets, even at the standout breaks, but with warmer air conditions and decent winds it shouldn’t be much of a chore to wait around…now we just need the water to warm up. Winds/Weather: Weather and winds improve dramatically on Saturday. Winds go light offshore for the morning and stay sort of light and variable through the middle of the day. Expect a bit of onshore flow around 10-12 knots out of the W-NW for the afternoon. Beach temps will be in the mid-70’s…the water is still pretty freaking cold though so bring a wetsuit.



Sunday – (Slow start, but clean conditions keep things fun)
Sunday will start off a bit on the small side with mostly leftover S-SW swell (180-210) and some backing off NW windswell. Most spots will be in waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. The standout S facing spots and the best combo breaks will continue to be in the shoulder high range. Look for a new SSW-SW swell (195-220) to move in with some long-period forerunners through the afternoon (filling in more after sundown). Winds/Weather: Offshore flow continues on Sunday…looks strongest through the morning near the usual wind-prone passes and canyons with lighter variable offshore flow at the more protected spots. Conditions stay clean through midday and then onshore afternoon flow builds out of the W around 10-14 knots.



Monday – (Memorial Day Holiday)
New SSW-SW swell (190-210) moves in and starts to peak on Monday…mostly in the afternoon. NW windswell will stay small in the background. Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range with a few plus sets showing on the tide push. Look for chest-shoulder high surf at the standouts with a few inconsistent head high sets showing at times in the afternoon. Look for the new SSW-SW swell to hold overnight into Tuesday. Winds/Weather: Weather continues to look good on Monday…mostly light and variable to light offshore for the morning and then mild-moderate onshore flow for the afternoon. Beach temps hold in the mid-upper 70’s while inland tops out in the 90’s…yeah we can expect a lot of extra people on the beach for the holiday.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Still some funky storm action showing in the NPAC…nothing that is super strong and totally in our window, but the storms are strong enough to make a me regret saying that the NPAC was shutting down for summer. For the weekend we are going to see some more NW windswell that comes up late on Friday, holding into Saturday, and the dropping off on Sunday/Monday.

Further out things get a little more interesting…check out the satellite image from Thursday afternoon.



See that storm up under the Aleutians? (Good. I hate to think I am talking to myself.) While this storm’s winds aren’t super intense (mostly in the 35-knot range) it is showing some pretty good rotation and it is manages to drop some fetch into the NW part of our swell window, which means we will see some rideable chest high+ WNW-NW swell from this system showing around Tuesday June 1 and then holding for a couple of days after.

Further out there is some more, better looking, activity showing on the long-range charts. The forecasts are showing a decent looking storm forming in about 6 days…likely settling a bit lower in latitude, which would put more of its core winds inside our swell window.



The charts are also showing this system getting its start as a dose of “extra-tropical” energy pushes NE of Japan and merging with a cold front flowing off of Siberia (well the Kamchatka Peninsula if you want to get all technical…*cough* jerk *cough*). I think that this guy bears watching as it develops…the models are notoriously bad at out of season mid-latitude systems, particularly when you drop in extra-tropical energy. If it does ramp up we would see swell from this one hitting around the 6-7th…possibly on the 5th if the periods are longer.



South Pacific
The latest shot of S-SW swell hit on Thursday and will hold into Friday before slowly fading over the weekend. The next pulse of Southern Hemi energy moves in late on Sunday and will peak Monday/Tuesday next week. We can expect the first really surfable waves from this S-SSW swell (180-210) arriving around May 31st and then holding for a few days into June as a closely following swell hits right after the initial pulse. This round of Southern Hemi swell isn’t huge, but it should be good for consistent shoulder-head high surf at the average spots and some inconsistent overhead sets at the standouts.



Further out the storm track is still looking pretty active on the long-range charts…so it looks like we will have some sort of Southern Hemi energy holding for the first week of June…with the first swell hitting early in the week and then a second reinforcement arriving on Saturday June 5th and holding for a couple of days afterward. The really long-range charts are showing more S-SW energy lining up for at least the first half of June… remind me to send a thank-you note to El Nino for helping to supercharge the SPAC.



Tropics
A big ass band of thunderstorms has formed down just off the coast of Central America that is showing some increasing signs of organization this afternoon. In fact you can see the lower level clouds starting to flow into the classic “spin” that you see with tropical storms.





The NHC hasn’t quite pulled the trigger on calling this a full tropical storm but to me it looks like it has probably reached the tropical depression level...I wouldn’t be surprised to see TD-01e get dropped on this one in the next few hours. From the tone of the National Hurricane Forecast it sounds like they are getting ready to do just that. Check it out…

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY.THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OR DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND COASTAL GUATEMALA. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

You might want to keep in mind the heavy flooding that may occur in the travel areas even if it doesn’t reach full “storm” strength.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Tuesday, June 1st, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 5/24/2010

Forecast Overview
S-SSW swell will drop slowly over the next few days as the bigger swell fades out. Fortunately there is more Southern Hemi energy on tap that will help to prop up decent sized surf for the next week or so. Local winds will continue to be a bit of a pain in the ass but it looks like Tuesday morning should be ok…more wind moves in Wednesday/Thursday but the upcoming holiday weekend should be nicer, both for surf conditions and weather.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (slowly fading S swell with plenty of energy still hanging on)
The S-SSW swell (180-210) will be slowly fading on Tuesday while the NW windswell continues to hold around the same size. Most S facing spots and decent combo spots will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with a few rare head high sets mixing in. The standout S facing spots and top combo breaks will be head high to slightly overhead on sets with a few bigger waves showing through the morning. Winds/Weather: Winds look mostly light in the morning…sort of light/variable onshore up around Santa Barbara and down through North LA. Look for more Northerly winds around OC and SD through the morning. W winds in the 13-18 knot range return in the afternoon.



Wednesday – (mixing S swells and more local windswell)
The S-SSW swell from the weekend will continue to drop off but wave heights won’t be fading all that fast thanks to a new mix of S-SSW swells that move up from the Southern Hemi to reinforce the fading energy. NW windswell continues to hold slightly smaller than earlier in the week. Most spots will continue to see chest-shoulder high surf with some bigger sets showing at S facing spots. The standout S swell spots will be in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets still showing at times. Winds/Weather: Winds look ok through midweek but another cold front will be moving into Socal that may destabilize the morning flow. At this point look for semi-clean conditions early…but with a few pockets of light onshore texture that may plague a few spots. Look for W winds 12-15 knots to fill in through the afternoon.



Thursday – (even more S swell…the hits just keep on coming)
Yet another pulse of the S-SSW swell (180-220) moves in on Thursday mixing with the energy that filled in on Wednesday and the leftovers from the bigger swell that hit over the weekend. Wave heights will be pretty similar...lots of spots will be in the chest-shoulder high+ range while the standout S facing spots still get up to a couple of feet overhead at times. Summer spots will continue to be the biggest, but the windswell breaks will do pretty well too. Winds/Weather: Onshore winds increase on Thursday as the new cold-front moves out of the area. Look for W winds for the morning, mostly below 5 knots, and then W winds around 10-20 knots for the afternoon.



Friday – (S swell + windswell+ winds = funky)
The overlapping mix of S-SW swell (180-220) will continue on Friday while new NW windswell starts to pulse up in the background. Look for the average spots to be back into the chest-head high range while the standout S facing breaks and good combo spots see some overhead sets. Biggest size will show through San Diego and Orange county but expect surf for most other areas as well. Winds/Weather: Winds continue to look a bit funky...it will be light/variable to light onshore for the morning with winds generally staying below 5-6 knots. Look for W-NW winds around 10-18 knots for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The NPAC continues to kick out some poorly positioned cold-fronts and weak storm systems…and like the last couple of weeks they have been either waaaay off over by Japan or moving down the West Coast. We just had (still have) strong W-NW winds that have been junking up this S swell by swirling in a witches brew of short-period windchop/swell…this will back down slightly over the next couple of days but then another front moves in around Wednesday/Thursday.



This next one looks like it will be good for another round of head high to overhead NW windswell for the well exposed spots…not super surfable, and not doing us any favors in terms of shape…but helping to increase the size at the winter spots. Look for this lumpy swell to arrive later on Wednesday and holding through Friday.

South Pacific
Still a hell of a lot of energy being thrown around in the South Pacific…and plenty of energy that is going to get pushed up towards Southern California. We can expect this bigger shot of S-SSW swell that peaked on Sunday to slowly fade over the next few days…but not dropping that fast thanks to reinforcing pulses of S-SSW swell that arrive on Wednesday and again on Thursday. These pulses will be good for more shoulder-head high surf at the average S facing spots and some overhead sets at the standouts.



There is another storm forming this afternoon that is already starting to throw up some 40-50 knot winds in key areas of its fetch (the parts aimed toward Socal). This swell will push our way over the next week or so…



We can expect another round of S-SSW swell (180-210) arriving around May 31st and then holding for a few days into June as a closely following swell hits right after the initial pulse. This round of Southern Hemi swell isn’t huge, but it should be good for consistent shoulder-head high surf at the average spots and some overhead sets at the standouts.

Further out the storm track is still looking pretty active on the long-range charts…so it looks like we will have some sort of Southern Hemi energy holding for the first week of June and possibly longer…now we just need these local winds to stop.

Tropics
Still no activity in the tropics…and all the NW wind coming down the coast over the next couple of days doesn’t help TS formation…so no new storms are expected to form over the next few days.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, May 27th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Waves for Wednesday – A bit more combo

Wednesday looks like another surf day.

We are going to have a mix of a building S swell (170-180), some holding SW energy (200-220), and steady NW windswell.



The S swell is going to be a little on the steep side for a few spots...it will definitely be a more southerly, than SW’erly sort of swell...so if you plan on getting waves from it try and stick to spots that face true south and pull in the 170-180 direction. You can see the new swell starting to slowly blip up on the Oceanside Buoy this afternoon.



Wave heights are going to continue to run in the waist-chest high range for most of the average spots, which are breaks that have some partial exposure to the Southern Hemi swells, or really good exposure to the NW windswell. Top S facing spots, and excellent combo spots, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some occasionally bigger sets on the lower tides.

Winds look ok...there is still a touch of variable eddy funk that sort of swirls up through the morning. San Diego and OC look like they might see some of it at times, but overall it shouldn’t be too bad. NW winds around 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon.



I think that we are going to see a few fun waves tomorrow...again nothing huge, or even all that consistent...just sort of playful on the set waves. The biggest surf will be in Orange County area, as well as a couple of the better exposed spots in North SD and North LA. I don’t think you should waste a lot of the $3.00-a-gallon (liquid gold that we have to pour into our vehicles) driving for surf...there should be plenty of rideable waves almost everywhere exposed to the swell mix. I would try and get on it early before the tides honk it up...if you end up paddling out a little later in the day bring a board that can handle a bit more water.

Here are the tides...

05:29AM LDT -1.6 L
11:57AM LDT 3.9 H
04:48PM LDT 1.9 L
10:51PM LDT 6.4 H

Tuesday's Surf - Is that a nice S swell or are you just happy to see me?

So the new S swell was coming on pretty strong on Monday. Naturally the surf was coming up because I was stuck in a business conference in Anaheim all day…(you may send me emails of thanks at a later time for the human sacrifice)…from all of the various reports that I got it sounded like the swell was hitting the OC the most with decent size in both LA and SD as well. Though I didn’t see it personally I heard the Wedge was pushing double-overhead+ on sets. (Send over some pictures to torture me if you have them...I in turn will post them to torture others and the circle of pain can continue.)

Anyway on Tuesday…well the good news is that the S swell will finally peak and we will see some steadily increasing NW windswell arriving through the afternoon to break up the southern hemi energy. The bad news is that the winds are going to get to it a bit more than they did on Monday.

San Diego, Los Angeles, and Ventura
Surfwise…look for most of San Diego and LA to have surf in the shoulder-head high range for Tuesday morning. Both of the winter areas in each region will get bigger and more consistent (and probably start to see overhead sets) as the new NW windswell arrives later in the day. The S facing standouts should have a few overhead sets mixing in for most of the day. Ventura will see the same sizes but with fewer spots exposed to S swell and more exposed to the building NW swell in the afternoon.

Santa Barbara
Santa Barbara will be a bit more shadowed from each swell. Look for surf in the waist-chest high range for the better exposed areas in the morning. Standout NW facing windswell spots will have some bigger shoulder high+ sets by the afternoon.

Orange County
The OC is going to be the biggest tomorrow thanks to its ability to focus S swells, particularly in the North County areas. Look for most S facing breaks to have consistent shoulder-overhead surf while the top spots see sets going a couple of feet overhead+ on the better tides. Extreme focal points, like the Wedge (and others), will have sets going several feet overhead and I wouldn’t be surprised to continue to see some double-overhead+ peaks rolling through. South OC will be a touch smaller than the northern areas but will still have plenty of swell showing. NW windswell fills in through the afternoon…and will most likely bring winds along with it.

Winds and Weather
The eddy spins up a touch more on Tuesday (Wednesday is looking really poopy)…look for S-SE winds around 3-5 knots in the morning. WNW winds around 10-15 knots build in the afternoon. Expect more fog and low clouds in the morning.

Your Best Bet
Sorry for all the headers…just thought I would break it out a little better since there is so much crapola going on…anyway with as much swell coming in we have a lot of choices for surf. Personally I would try to surf in the morning before the winds get too strong. I would also try and stick to spots that protection from the S winds and yet still have some exposure to the S swell…sort of tough to do but worth it if you can pull it off. Look for the biggest surf through North OC…and probably a lot of closeouts on the bigger sets until the NW windswell gets going a bit more.