Thursday, May 27, 2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 5/27/2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 5/27/2010

Forecast Overview
Friday will see some rideable but likely wind textured surf as a mix of S-SW swell combos up with some increasing local NW windswell. Conditions clean up a lot on Saturday as the winds shift offshore and beach temps start to rise…the surf will drop slightly but we should continue to have playful leftovers. Good conditions and small but rideable waves hold on Sunday. New S-SW swell hits on Memorial Day along with more nice weather/winds. Further out we will have more Southern Hemi swell pulsing in for most of next week. And finally it looks like our first tropical storm may form as we head into this weekend. Damn that was a long overview.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (S swell + windswell+ winds = funky but rideable)
The overlapping mix of S-SW swell (180-220) will continue on Friday while new NW windswell starts to pulse up in the background. Look for the average spots to be back into the chest-head high range while the standout S facing breaks and good combo spots see some overhead sets. Biggest size will show through San Diego and Orange County but expect surf for most other areas as well. Winds/Weather: Winds continue to look a bit funky...it will be light/variable to light onshore for the morning with winds generally staying below 5-6 knots. Look for W-NW winds around 10-18 knots for the afternoon.



Saturday – (Offshore winds and playful leftovers)
Saturday will have a mix of slowly fading S-SW swell (180-210) and some steady NW windswell. Most spots will be in the chest high range while the standout S facing breaks and the excellent combo spots see some shoulder-head high sets on the lower tides. Expect some inconsistency to the bigger sets, even at the standout breaks, but with warmer air conditions and decent winds it shouldn’t be much of a chore to wait around…now we just need the water to warm up. Winds/Weather: Weather and winds improve dramatically on Saturday. Winds go light offshore for the morning and stay sort of light and variable through the middle of the day. Expect a bit of onshore flow around 10-12 knots out of the W-NW for the afternoon. Beach temps will be in the mid-70’s…the water is still pretty freaking cold though so bring a wetsuit.



Sunday – (Slow start, but clean conditions keep things fun)
Sunday will start off a bit on the small side with mostly leftover S-SW swell (180-210) and some backing off NW windswell. Most spots will be in waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. The standout S facing spots and the best combo breaks will continue to be in the shoulder high range. Look for a new SSW-SW swell (195-220) to move in with some long-period forerunners through the afternoon (filling in more after sundown). Winds/Weather: Offshore flow continues on Sunday…looks strongest through the morning near the usual wind-prone passes and canyons with lighter variable offshore flow at the more protected spots. Conditions stay clean through midday and then onshore afternoon flow builds out of the W around 10-14 knots.



Monday – (Memorial Day Holiday)
New SSW-SW swell (190-210) moves in and starts to peak on Monday…mostly in the afternoon. NW windswell will stay small in the background. Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range with a few plus sets showing on the tide push. Look for chest-shoulder high surf at the standouts with a few inconsistent head high sets showing at times in the afternoon. Look for the new SSW-SW swell to hold overnight into Tuesday. Winds/Weather: Weather continues to look good on Monday…mostly light and variable to light offshore for the morning and then mild-moderate onshore flow for the afternoon. Beach temps hold in the mid-upper 70’s while inland tops out in the 90’s…yeah we can expect a lot of extra people on the beach for the holiday.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Still some funky storm action showing in the NPAC…nothing that is super strong and totally in our window, but the storms are strong enough to make a me regret saying that the NPAC was shutting down for summer. For the weekend we are going to see some more NW windswell that comes up late on Friday, holding into Saturday, and the dropping off on Sunday/Monday.

Further out things get a little more interesting…check out the satellite image from Thursday afternoon.



See that storm up under the Aleutians? (Good. I hate to think I am talking to myself.) While this storm’s winds aren’t super intense (mostly in the 35-knot range) it is showing some pretty good rotation and it is manages to drop some fetch into the NW part of our swell window, which means we will see some rideable chest high+ WNW-NW swell from this system showing around Tuesday June 1 and then holding for a couple of days after.

Further out there is some more, better looking, activity showing on the long-range charts. The forecasts are showing a decent looking storm forming in about 6 days…likely settling a bit lower in latitude, which would put more of its core winds inside our swell window.



The charts are also showing this system getting its start as a dose of “extra-tropical” energy pushes NE of Japan and merging with a cold front flowing off of Siberia (well the Kamchatka Peninsula if you want to get all technical…*cough* jerk *cough*). I think that this guy bears watching as it develops…the models are notoriously bad at out of season mid-latitude systems, particularly when you drop in extra-tropical energy. If it does ramp up we would see swell from this one hitting around the 6-7th…possibly on the 5th if the periods are longer.



South Pacific
The latest shot of S-SW swell hit on Thursday and will hold into Friday before slowly fading over the weekend. The next pulse of Southern Hemi energy moves in late on Sunday and will peak Monday/Tuesday next week. We can expect the first really surfable waves from this S-SSW swell (180-210) arriving around May 31st and then holding for a few days into June as a closely following swell hits right after the initial pulse. This round of Southern Hemi swell isn’t huge, but it should be good for consistent shoulder-head high surf at the average spots and some inconsistent overhead sets at the standouts.



Further out the storm track is still looking pretty active on the long-range charts…so it looks like we will have some sort of Southern Hemi energy holding for the first week of June…with the first swell hitting early in the week and then a second reinforcement arriving on Saturday June 5th and holding for a couple of days afterward. The really long-range charts are showing more S-SW energy lining up for at least the first half of June… remind me to send a thank-you note to El Nino for helping to supercharge the SPAC.



Tropics
A big ass band of thunderstorms has formed down just off the coast of Central America that is showing some increasing signs of organization this afternoon. In fact you can see the lower level clouds starting to flow into the classic “spin” that you see with tropical storms.





The NHC hasn’t quite pulled the trigger on calling this a full tropical storm but to me it looks like it has probably reached the tropical depression level...I wouldn’t be surprised to see TD-01e get dropped on this one in the next few hours. From the tone of the National Hurricane Forecast it sounds like they are getting ready to do just that. Check it out…

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY.THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OR DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND COASTAL GUATEMALA. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

You might want to keep in mind the heavy flooding that may occur in the travel areas even if it doesn’t reach full “storm” strength.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Tuesday, June 1st, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the very positive very funny long range forecast Adam! It was a great read.

Mark said...

Thanks Adam!!

SC Fool said...

That was an exciting forecast!