Surf for Thursday – Cleaner than Wednesday

Thursday is looking like a surf day...but while it will be cleaner in the morning it will also be smaller... fortunately more swell fills starts filling in later in the day.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of S-SW swell (190-220) with some of the energy fading out and new energy filling in. There will be a touch of NW windswell in the background but not much to make a difference.



Most SW facing spots will be in the waist-chest high range. Standout SW facing spots in OC, LA, and SD (sounds like a disorder), will be in the chest to inconsistent shoulder high range through the morning but will see some more-consistent bigger sets by the afternoon.

Conditions look cleaner as the slight eddy circulation backs down and we see light and variable winds through the morning. More WNW winds around 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon. Check out the NWS model for tomorrow morning at 8am.



The surf will be fun on Thursday...not great or anything...but playful at the right spots. Like a lot of the Southern Hemi energy we have see over the last week it looks like the points and reefs will have the best shape...while the beach breaks stay a bit walled and sectiony. Good sandbars/piers/jetties that can break up the swell will be worth looking at if you can’t get to a point and reef.

Here are the tides...

06:38AM LDT -0.2 L
01:23PM LDT 3.4 H
05:36PM LDT 2.7 L
11:32PM LDT 4.9 H

Waves for Wednesday – The surfing continues!

Wednesday will be another surf day.

The mix of S-SW swell will continue on Wednesday. Most of the energy will be leftovers from earlier in the week but a new SW swell (200-220) will begin moving in throughout the day and we will continue to see some background NW windswell.

Most exposed spots will see surf in the waist-chest high range. Standout S-SW facing spots, mostly through Orange County and Northern San Diego...and a few breaks sprinkled around northern LA, will have some chest-shoulder high sets. Maybe a few bigger sets at the OC and SD SW standouts by the end of the day...if it stays clean enough to pick them out.

Winds will shift back to our more normal pattern on Wednesday. We will have light and variable morning conditions with just a touch of S-SW eddy flow. Look for NW winds around 10-14 knots by the afternoon. Overcast skies at first and then clear skies burning through around midday.



I would keep an eye on the eddy circulation in the morning...there may be a little texture/crumble at the more exposed spots. You can probably dodge it by hitting up spots with some protection, like high cliffs, better positioning, or kelp or something similar that knocks the wind down. There isn’t a lot to break up the swell so look for the best shape at points and reefs...with the good sandbars being a decent, but not great backup.

Here are the tides...

06:02AM LDT -0.4 L
12:41PM LDT 3.4 H
04:52PM LDT 2.5 L
10:56PM LDT 5.2 H

Waves for the Weekend - Mostly Rideable and with a little more SW swell on Sunday

Looked like there were still plenty of fun waves on Friday...I got a lovely case of the sewer ear so I stayed out of the water to try and dry it out (it might be time to drill out the old ear canals soon) ...but I went down and wandered the beach aimlessly at lunch and saw some decent sets coming through. (And naturally a couple of buddies had to tell me how fun it was both in the morning and during lunch...which is always the case when you can't surf...the jerkys). Anyway...


you know Egon, this reminds me of the time you tried to drill a hole in your head

Saturday and Sunday are going to be surf days...not super big or even that consistent but it should be fun if you time the tides/conditions right.

We are going to have a mix of fading SSW swell and local windswell on Saturday. Most spots will be in the waist-high range while the standout S facing breaks in Orange County and San Diego see some chest high (maybe chest high+) waves on the best sets.

Sunday we will start off with more of the same but by the 2nd half of the day we will have a new SW swell (210-220) start to move in from the Southern Hemisphere. Most spots will stay in the same waist-waist high+ range. The standout SW facing spots in South Orange County and San Diego will have some more chest-shoulder high sets arriving as we head into the afternoon. (Look for this new SW'er to peak on Monday).

Winds look mostly light and variable for both Saturday and Sunday morning. Onshore winds out of the W-WNW build in to about 10-12+ knots through the afternoons.

Like I said above...I think it will be fun...nothing outstanding but playful, rideable, and clean. I think that the points/reefs/beach-breaks will all be about the same shapewise...there will be longer rides at the points/reefs...but more hollow and speedier sections at the beach breaks...sort of a trade off. I would still probably try and get on it during the morning since the tides will be a bit lower, just starting the tide push, and the winds will be nice and light. It is sunny and a weekend so expect a crowd...that way if you find an empty peak you can be pleasantly surprised.

Tides for the weekend

Saturday
12:38AM LDT 3.6 H
05:02AM LDT 2.4 L
11:26AM LDT 6.1 H
07:17PM LDT -0.3 L

Sunday
02:11AM LDT 3.3 H
05:50AM LDT 2.8 L
12:23PM LDT 5.7 H
08:35PM LDT -0.1 L

Swell Alert - The South Pacific is coming back online

After what seemed like f-ing forever (but was in reality about 2-1/2 weeks) the South Pacific finally started getting its shit back together.

This S swell we have had over the last couple of days was the first real pulse of energy that we had seen in a while. Fortunately it is not a one-hit-wonder...in fact it eroded the blocking high-pressure that had been kicking our swell-window "right in the junk" and helped open up a gap, which allowed a couple of following storms to set up some decent fetch for SoCal, Baja, Mainland Mexico and Central America.

These storms were positioned a bit more on the SW side of the swell window, which means that the swell they kicked out will arrive in SoCal about the same time they hit Mex and Central America. I will get into the surf details in a bit...

OK there are actually 2 swells currently heading our way with a 3rd potentially brewing out the back. (I am not holding my breath on that one though).

Swell #1

The first swell arriving in this new batch will be a SW'er (210-220)...it has some decent energy but there are a couple of things I don't like about it for SoCal. First off is the swell angle...it has a lot of west in it, which means it had to pass through the SPAC island shadow and probably had a lot of the consistency chewed out of it. Secondly the more westerly angle also means that the Nearshore Islands (like the Channel Islands, Catalina, and San Clemente Island) will also get into the mix at shadowing this swell.

Check out the shadowing on the WavewatchIII swell-period model



That being said...it still has some OK energy making it through the gaps...I am expecting this swell to hit in SoCal late on the 6th...and then peak on Sunday/Monday (Sept 7-8th). Sizewise it looks good for chest-shoulder high surf for the average spots. Standout surf breaks, basically in San Diego and South Orange County, will have shoulder-head high+ sets. Unfortunately there is a surf contest at what would probably be the best spot for this swell. (you can probably figure it out).

Travel spots like Baja, Mainland Mex, and Central America, will be less shadowed and more consistent. Look for most of the "average spots" to be around shoulder-high to overhead on sizes while the deepwater breaks of Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America see sets going a few feet overhead and even a little bigger at times.

Swell #2

The second swell is a little more of a SSW’er (190-205) and it was both a little more intense and it made it a touch closer to our region than the first storm. With the better direction, less shadowing, and more intensity I think this will end up being the better of the swells. Here check out the Quikscat from this storm…



This one will arrive on Sept 9th late in the evening and then peak the 10-11th before slowly fading out. I am expecting surf at the S facing spots to be in the shoulder-head high range while the standout breaks, mostly in Orange County and San Diego, see sets going a couple of feet overhead as the swell peaks.

The travel spots will also see decent size ff this swell…it will actually arrive a bit earlier for most of those areas, filling in on the 8-9th for most of Central America/Mainland Mexico, and more of the 9-10th for Southern Baja. Sizewise those areas can expect surf running shoulder-overhead at the better breaks while the top spots go a several feet overhead…probably 8’+ faces (and sometimes bigger) at the standout deepwater breaks.

So all in all it should be a decent run of swells…I wish it could be a little better aimed for SoCal (or at least that we could get a combo swell to help cross it up) but it is better than the flat spell we just waded through.

Wednesday’s Surf – More S, SE, and SW swell

Wednesday will be a surf day…particularly at the S-SE facing breaks through SoCal, especially those in Orange County.

We will have new tropical SE swell showing from Fausto, at the same time we have fading energy from the S swell that hit over the weekend, and we are going to see a mix of new SW swell (and some local NW windswell) help to round us out tomorrow.

Average spots with some S swell exposure will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head high sets. Better spots with exposure to more of the swell mix will see more consistent shoulder-head high surf with some head high+ waves on the inconsistent sets. Standout surf breaks, mostly in Orange County (North OC that is), will be consistently in the shoulder-overhead range with a few sets going a couple of feet+ overhead on the larger sets. The standout breaks will be the ones that can really focus the shorter period SE swells as well as pull in energy from the S-SW.

Winds are forecast to be similar to Tuesday…so while they will be light/variable in the morning they will have a mostly onshore flow. Look for a little texture/lump to some of the more exposed breaks in San Diego and Orange County…and cleaner conditions as you move northward into LA, Ventura, and Santa Barbara. (Don’t go to SB though…not much surf going to show up that way).

Really I think your best bet will be the more classic hurricane swell spots of Orange County. It isn’t going to be massive…or even have all that great shape…but it will be consistently bigger than other spots. If you don’t feel like the drive then I would suggest the better S-SE facing points and reefs hidden in the exposed areas…they are going to hold shape a lot better than the beach breaks and you may even get a little less current to paddle against.