Waves for the Weekend – Reinforcement of SW swell but not a ton of waves

It will be surfable this weekend…but nothing special overall, unless you get lucky with the right break, tide, and wind (like winning a surf lotto!)

For the weekend we are going to see a mix of SW swell, some leftover S-SW swell, and some weak local NW windswell. The SW swell (200-220) actually filled in a touch later on Friday and will hold overnight into Saturday before slowly dropping on Sunday (and turning more southerly as we move through the weekend).





Sizewise it is going to be pretty much the same all weekend…most SSW-SW spots will be around the knee-waist with a few rare chest high sets sneaking into the spots that like the tide with a little more junk in the trunk. Top SW spots, mostly in South OC and parts of North SD, will be more in the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high sets mixing it in. I suppose there might be a few bigger sets on the lower tides, particularly at the focal spots, but don’t expect to see a lot of them.

Winds look ok...mostly light and variable in the morning with a few areas of light onshore texture at really wind sensitive spots. There won’t be much bump even at the most exposed spots…but there might be a bit of crumble…so don’t expect total cleanliness. Most areas will have some W winds around 10-15 knots picking up through the afternoon…but expect a little lighter onshore bump at the spots with some protection.

Saturday Wind


Sunday Wind


I am not super excited about the weekend surf...the swell mix is small and sort of inconsistent, but it will have some waves showing at the well exposed spots...and a few of the spots can be pretty damn playful if things come together just right. Unfortunately this is the US OPEN weekend which means that the beach is going to be covered in all sorts of nonsense. Personally I would just try and give it a look in the mornings, get a few little waves if it looks ok, and get out of dodge before the chaos erupts...but that is just me. If the nonsense is your thing...then this is your weekend.

Here are the tides…

08/07/2010 Saturday
02:22AM LDT -0.6 L
08:48AM LDT 3.7 H
01:27PM LDT 2.2 L
07:35PM LDT 6.3 H

08/08/2010 Sunday
02:59AM LDT -1.0 L
09:17AM LDT 4.1 H
02:18PM LDT 1.8 L
08:22PM LDT 6.6 H

Waves for Wednesday – on the weak side but with a new pulse of tropical SE swell

Wednesday will have some small, semi-rideable, surf…but if your break doesn’t have really good exposure to the swell mix you can expect some long waits between sets…and weak surf even when it does show.

In the water we will have a mix of fading local NW windswell, some small inconsistent SW swell (190-220), and some new tropical SE swell (155-165) coming from Tropical Storm Blas. Unfortunately these sort of swells don’t blend very well…the NW energy is a bit too steep so it doesn’t show at spots that have exposure to the tropical swell, and to top it off the SW’er is pretty inconsistent so it won’t help to fill in the gaps left by the other swells.



Most spots are going to average around knee-waist high on Wednesday, while the better S facing spots that can pull in some of the tropical SE swell and the SW swell will be more in the waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets on the lower tides. The standout S facing spots and the best combo breaks (either combining the SW/NW or the SW/SE), most of which will be in Orange County, will run in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent chest-to-almost-shoulder high sets sneaking in on the low-to-high tide push.

Winds look decent for the morning…mostly light and variable with a couple of weak pockets of variable onshore flow and light texture. Those winds turn onshore around mid-morning and build into the 10-15 knot range out of the W-WNW by the afternoon.



So again nothing super exciting on tap for Wednesday…but if your beach is well exposed it will probably be fun to break out the big boards. It is worth noting that I am being a bit conservative on the tropical swell from TS Blas...mostly because the swell angle is pretty steep from the SE, which doesn’t let many spots pick it up…but there is a chance that it will come in bigger than I have in the forecast. If you live close to a SE exposed beach it might be worth adding it to the list of breaks that you check…particularly if the swell looks a little peppier on the buoys.

Here are the tides…

06/23/2010 Wednesday
02:28AM LDT -0.6 L
08:49AM LDT 3.4 H
01:20PM LDT 2.1 L
07:38PM LDT 6.0 H

Tuesday’s Surf – Clean and on the small side

Tuesday looks surfable…but it will be on the small side, and a tad inconsistent, which will keep it from being a real “surf” day.

Swellwise we will have a mix of fading NW windswell and an inconsistent SW swell (190-210) on tap for the morning. By the afternoon there will be a little bit of tropical SE energy (from TS Blas) starting to show…this won’t generate a ton of surf before dark…but exposed spots might see consistency start to improve a bit.



Average exposed spots will be in the waist high range with a few bigger chest high sets sneaking into the average spots that have a little better SW exposure. The standout SW facing breaks, mostly through South OC and parts of San Diego, will be in the waist-chest high range fairly consistently with some shoulder high sets sneaking through on the better tides.

Winds will be light in the morning…mostly light and variable but with a few areas with light offshore flow, and a few unlucky pockets that pick up some light onshore texture. Generally winds will be below 2-3 knots through the first part of the day. The onshore flow builds in out of the W-WNW around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.



Like I said it will be a bit small and inconsistent on Tuesday…but the clean conditions will help to make the smaller surf a bit more tolerable. I would stick with the small wave gear on Tuesday...something that will help you power through the weaker in-between sets. Bigger guys might want to bust out the logs…while the lighter guys might get away with fishy shapes...basically you just want something that works for you in smaller waves. Cleanest conditions will be through the morning but there is a minor high tide (3’+) around 8am, which you might want to keep in mind.

Here are the tides…

06/22/2010 Tuesday
01:40AM LDT -0.2 L
07:51AM LDT 3.3 H
12:29PM LDT 2.0 L
06:55PM LDT 6.0 H

Waves for Wednesday – Goodbye wind

Wednesday will be a surf day.

There won’t be a ton of swell in the water…just some leftover S-SW swell (180-210) and some decent but fading local windswell.



Most spots will be in the waist-high range with some chest-shoulder high sets for the NW standouts (mostly in South San Diego) will see some head high sets at the breaks that focus/like NW windswell. S facing breaks will be smaller…mostly knee-waist high with a few chest high sets sneaking through inconsistently through the lower tides.

Winds clean up a lot on Wednesday…light and variable to light offshore as the last winds off this funky front (that hit Monday/Tuesday) finally push on to annoy someone else. Look for W winds around 10-15 knots will spin back up in the afternoon.



While we won’t have a ton of swell in the water, the combo of cleaner conditions and semi-decent morning tides will at least help most breaks to stay rideable, while the standout breaks do a little bit better. I would probably stick to the smaller wave gear, particularly at breaks that aren’t that well exposed to either of the swells. Best call will probably be the beach breaks throughout SD and OC…but only marginally better since there should be plenty of small but rideable waves throughout Socal.

Here are the tides…

05/12/2010 Wednesday
03:12AM LDT -0.4 L
09:20AM LDT 3.6 H
02:26PM LDT 1.5 L
08:33PM LDT 5.7 H

Wind for Wednesday – more stupid wind

Wednesday won’t be a surf day…the onshore winds that we saw on Tuesday will continue through Wednesday as well (don’t worry things do eventually clean up on Thursday/Friday).

In the water we will have a mix of steady NW windswell (290-300), some background WNW-NW swell (285-300), and some weak SW energy.



Look for waist-chest high surf at the average exposed breaks while the better NW facing spots see some chest-head high sets. The standout NW facing breaks, mostly through Southern San Diego, see some shoulder-head high+ surf with some bigger sets mixing it up as well. Shape looks pretty poor again for most areas…but the NW winds don’t totally blow out everything…so if you are desperate you might be able to find a hidden little corner out there somewhere.

More freaking wind on tap for Wednesday…WNW-NW winds 10-20 knots for the morning…with some stronger near 25-30 knot gusts setting up by the afternoon.



Not really much in the way of change from Tuesday…there is still windswell and it is still windy…and now the water is starting to look really cold thanks to all the lovely upwelling…basically making it just that much more appealing. I will be sleeping in again tomorrow…hopefully there will be enough leftover windswell to have some fun as things clean up on Thursday.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county so you can find out how windy it will be at your favorite spots.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/10/2010 Wednesday
05:38AM LST 4.5 H
12:55PM LST -0.1 L
07:23PM LST 3.6 H

Tuesday’s onshore wind – go away wind!

Tuesday won’t be a surf day…and since you aren’t surfing you will have more time to create awesome t-shirts.

http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2010/03/calling-all-t-shirt-artists.html

We will have a mix of building NW windswell (290-300), some background WNW-NW energy (285-300), and a touch of SW swell (200-220). Unfortunately for the swell mix the wind generating the windswell will be coming right along with it…so we can expect steady WNW-NW winds blowing throughout the day.



Look for waist-chest high surf at the average exposed breaks while the standout NW facing spots, mostly through Southern San Diego, see some shoulder-head high+ sets. The steeper angle on the NW windswell is going to keep it from reaching most spots…but there will be a few areas in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego that will be able to squeeze some size from it.

A weak cold front moves through Monday night and helps set up some NW winds for Tuesday. Look for WNW-NW winds around 10-12 knots for the morning and then gusts hitting 15-25 knots by the afternoon. Increasing cloudiness but not really any rain expected.



The current forecast run isn’t even showing a glimmer of a morning clean up…but we do have some swell in the water, which means that you might as well do a quick cam check at spots with some exposure to the NW energy…just in case skynet, working with the dolphins, has corrupted the computer models and doesn’t want humans to surf anymore so it is screwing up the wind forecast…I am not saying that it is likely, just don’t rule it out.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county so you can find out how windy it will be at your favorite spots.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/09/2010 Tuesday
04:39AM LST 4.3 H
12:17PM LST 0.0 L
07:03PM LST 3.5 H
11:54PM LST 2.3 L

Monday’s Surf – Hello springtime

Monday does not look like a surf day…though there may be a small surf window early in the morning at a few of the most protected spots.

Our swell will be a mix of steep NW windswell (290-300+), some small medium period NW energy (290-300), and some background SW swell (200-220). In the morning both of the NW swells will be pretty steeply angled so it looks like they will skip past most spots thanks to shadowing from both Point Conception and the nearshore islands…but they will turn a little more westerly (along with the wind) as we head into the afternoon so eventually the WNW facing breaks will get a bit of a bump in windswell energy too.



Average spots…pretty much from Ventura on down through OC…will have surf in the knee-waist high range with a few chest high sets sneaking into the better exposed combo spots. The NW energy will hit San Diego a little better so expect a little more size down that way…most of SD will be in the waist-chest high range (particularly in North SD)…the top South SD spots will be more chest-head high with some inconsistent overhead sets mixing in. Unfortunately SD is going to be a lot more exposed to the wind…so it will pay a price in shape to have the bigger waves.

Winds not looking so hot for Monday. It looks like there is a little variable flow right along the coast from Santa Barbara down through the South Bay…but OC and San Diego can expect WNW-NW winds around 10-15 knots setting up pretty fast around sunrise. All areas will have WNW-NW winds around 10-20 knots for the afternoon with some 25+ knot winds setting up as you get closer to SB/VEN areas.



So, mostly small and windy on Monday, with plenty of cold water thanks to the wind that blew through on Sunday…my that makes Monday’s surf sound like so much fun. If you are jonesing for some waves, and you live really close to the beach in Ventura or LA, it might be worth a quick check early in the morning…but if you miss the dawn patrol I wouldn’t waste a lot of time looking for waves. Personally I am going to be surfing my pillow a little longer in the morning.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…have a great week!

03/08/2010 Monday
03:16AM LST 4.2 H
11:26AM LST 0.3 L
06:37PM LST 3.2 H
10:49PM LST 2.7 L

Waves for the Weekend – Fun Saturday morning and then things get weird

Saturday will be surfable, particularly if you don’t mind the surf being on the smaller side. A new storm moves in Saturday afternoon/evening and holds into Sunday were it makes the conditions get all fugly.

Saturday will see a mix of fading WNW-NW energy, some long-period but very steeply angled NW swell (295-300+), and some playful/inconsistent SSW-SW swell (190-220).



Most spots will see surf in the knee-waist high range on Saturday with some waist-chest high sets at the better combo breaks, and even a couple chest-shoulder peaks setting up at the standout NW/SW combo spots.

Winds look good for the morning…mostly light/variable to light easterly for the dawn patrol…and a little ESE-SE flow around San Diego. These winds will stay light through midday and then start to shift to the S-SW around 15-20 knots by late in the afternoon...expect some rain to come along with the switch as well.



Sunday the local windswell comes up a couple of notches but the wind comes along with it…we will also have the steeper NW’er, the WNW-NW leftovers, and the background SSW-SW swell.



The surf will continue to be in the waist-high range for most of the average spots…with some more consistent chest high sets mixing it at spots with more exposure to the windswell. The standout NW breaks and the excellent combo spots will see some chest-shoulder high surf, possibly even a couple of bigger sets. Unfortunately shape doesn’t look that great since there will be all sorts of really short-period chop sloshing around…it will end up being one of those days where you will have to sacrifice surf size for cleaner shape…which is a sucky trade in my book.

Who the f_@k knows what the wind is going to do on Sunday…the storm that has been threatening to move into Socal will finally be here and none of the models know where it is going, or how fast it might move through. Check out the COAMPS for Sunday morning…this is how a model just shrugs its shoulders and goes out drinking.



As you can see it is forecasting some sort of crazy mutant eddy…with pretty stiff onshore winds for OC and all spots southward…and then offshore winds from the South Bay on north (until you get to the central coast then it is onshore again?). Really I would just keep your eye on conditions, check the weather stations and the surf cams, and if it looks manageable then go get some. Saturday will be much cleaner…but with as tweaked as this model is I don’t think I would completely write-off Sunday yet.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/06/2010 Saturday
12:31AM LST 4.8 H
08:28AM LST 0.5 L
03:18PM LST 2.6 H
06:31PM LST 2.4 L

03/07/2010 Sunday
01:41AM LST 4.4 H
10:09AM LST 0.5 L
05:53PM LST 2.9 H
08:36PM LST 2.8 L

Surf for Friday – Cleaner leftovers

Friday will be rideable but it will be fairly small...overall it will be a marginal surf day…but with the right equipment (and the right attitude) there will be a few rideable little peaks out there.

Our surf will be a mix of fading WNW-NW energy (290-300) and some inconsistent, background SW swell (200-220). The WNW-NW energy will fade pretty steadily throughout the day.



Look for most spots to average around knee high with some inconsistent waist high sets. The better combo breaks with some decent SW exposure will be in the knee-waist high+ range with some inconsistent chest high sets on the lower tides. Standout NW facing breaks and the excellent NW/SW combo breaks will be in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets. The NW energy is getting to be pretty short-period…so expect sort of gutless, windswelly shape…which may be ok at the beach breaks but will lack much power at most points/reefs.

Winds will be light and variable to light-offshore in the morning…with a little touch of ESE flow through parts of San Diego. Look for W winds around 10-knots to set up through the afternoon. A new storm-front is forecast to move through late Friday night (well after dark) and set up some more rain/stormy conditions for Saturday.



Not much going on Friday…just small waves, breaking close to shore for most spots. I think that you might be able to have some fun with your small wave gear. Most breaks will probably be the most fun with some sort of longboard…but a few of the standout NW facing breaks might have enough size to stick with the fishy shapes or a good small-wave shortboard. I would try and get on it early since the tide is good and the conditions will be the cleanest…just don’t expect a lot from it and you won’t be disappointed.

Here are the tides…

03/05/2010 Friday
07:00AM LST 0.3 L
01:03PM LST 2.9 H
05:50PM LST 1.8 L

Thursday’s Surf – Dropping WNW-NW swell and increasing NW winds

At first glance Thursday doesn’t look like much of a surf day…but after looking at it a little closer there may be a few little surf windows that open up in the morning.

The WNW-NW swell (285-300 but with the peak of the energy coming in at 290-300) will be fading on Thursday as it mixes with some building NW windswell and some new background SW swell (200-220). There will still be plenty of swell in the water but overall it will feel smaller and less consistent compared to Wednesday.



Average WNW facing spots will be in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets showing on the lower tides. The standout NW facing breaks, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will be in the shoulder-overhead range with sets going a couple of feet overhead in the morning…but becoming a little less consistent and smaller throughout the afternoon.

Winds don’t look great on Thursday…neither does the weather when you get right down to it…but really who cares about a little rain/drizzle at this point. It looks like NW flow will start up pretty early on Thursday (if it ever backs down from Wednesday night)…the strongest winds, NW winds around 10-15 knots, will be up around Santa Barbara, Ventura, and down through parts of South San Diego. LA and OC will have similar NW winds but speeds look a bit lighter…mostly below 10-knots for the morning along with a couple of semi-clean looking pockets showing through North LA and North OC. NW winds 15-20+ knots will be on tap through the afternoon.



Once again we can’t quite get all of the pieces to come together…we have decent tides, plenty of swell, but the wind/weather is going to funk things up. I wouldn’t spend a ton of time looking for waves tomorrow but if you have a spot with some NW wind protection close by it might be worth giving it a check in the morning. Points/reefs will continue to have the best shape…but there may be a little more NW/SW combo as the WNW-NW’er backs off and the new SW’er fills in a touch more.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/04/2010 Thursday
05:52AM LST 0.1 L
11:46AM LST 3.6 H
05:16PM LST 1.2 L
11:40PM LST 5.1 H

Wednesday Waves – More swell with weather in the afternoon

Wednesday is looking a bit funky…there will be new swell in the water, but an approaching cold-front may tweak winds a bit.

We have another round of WNW-NW swell (285-300) that will peak on Wednesday. A lot of this energy is coming in pretty NW in the swell direction (290-300+) so it looks like the biggest surf will be in South San Diego, with Ventura and the South Bay running a close second. There will also be a touch of SW swell (200-220) in the water but it is going to get steamrolled by the more dominant WNW-NW energy.



Look for the average WNW facing breaks to see surf in the shoulder-overhead range on Wednesday with some bigger sets showing a little inconsistently at times. The top NW facing breaks will have surf more in the head high to a couple of feet overhead range with some sets going several feet overhead mixing in on the more favorable parts of the tide swing.

Weather is where we get a little screwed…yet another cold front is forecast to move into the area throughout the day on Wednesday. The timing of this front is still a bit suspect but it looks like some of the wind/weather may start creeping through early in the day, hitting up around SB and Ventura in the morning and then pushing southward through midday and into the afternoon. If this is the case we can expect some W-NW winds around 10-14 knots for SB and Ventura areas…and then sort of variable winds in the other regions. Check out the COAMPS model for around sunrise tomorrow…you can see that funky column of wind tug-o-war setting up over the water between the coast and Catalina. I think that it might be semi-manageable in the early morning, particularly at spots that have some protection from the wind (things like kelp, cliffs, or something else to block the breeze)…but our best bet is going to be giving the wind and surf cams a check in the morning before driving too far.



If you live in the LA/OC/SD areas I would try and keep an eye on things for the morning…we have plenty of swell in the water, the tides are actually sort of good for the early morning, and if we can get the wind to play ball we might have a shot at a halfway decent morning session. I would look for the best shape at points and reefs that can handle the swell…beach breaks may be a bit walled out.

Sorry about the weird update pattern the last few days…my computer has been a bit wonky and I am still in the process of sorting it out. I think this video sums up my feelings about computer issues the best…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ntr-pw_6C0

No regional updates tonight…hopefully I will have everything up and running normally tomorrow.

Here are the tides…

03/03/2010 Wednesday
04:55AM LST -0.1 L
10:48AM LST 4.3 H
04:43PM LST 0.6 L
10:58PM LST 5.4 H

Surf for Friday – Fun but with a morning swampthing

Friday will start off as a surf day…but you are going to want to stick with spots that can handle a higher tide.

The mix of WNW-NW swell (280-300) and SW swell (190-220) that filled in on Thursday will hold into early Friday and then slowly back down through the afternoon.



Sizewise we can expect the average WNW facing spots and the good combo breaks to be in the chest-head high range on Thursday…maybe a little smaller/less-consistent through the morning thanks to the fatty high tide. The better WNW-NW facing breaks and excellent combo spots, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will have shoulder-head surf with sets going overhead+ at times once the tide drops. Really pay attention to the high tide…it is going to be pretty damn swampy first thing in the morning…so you will need to either find a break that can handle the extra water or wait for it to drop (and risk onshore winds).

Yet another storm system is forecast to move in on Friday…arriving more through the evening/night as we head toward Saturday…but there will be some shifting conditions on tap for Friday. Look for mostly light and variable winds on tap for Friday morning. S-SE winds will start to build up around Santa Barbara/Ventura around midday and then slowly push down the coast as we move through the afternoon. Look for S winds 10-15 knots on tap for most areas by sundown and then gusts hitting 25+ knots and rain arriving after midnight.



Man right back between the proverbial rock and the hard place…high dawn patrol tide and clean conditions vs dropping tide and building onshore winds…living in North OC I hate that choice, the wind almost always wins the race and waiting it out just leads to me driving around looking at blown out surf. I need to come up with a wind generator that can make it offshore all of the time…yeah I will get right on that.



Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/26/2010 Friday
12:49AM LST 1.4 L
06:48AM LST 6.0 H
01:54PM LST -1.2 L
08:06PM LST 4.4 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 11/12/2009

Forecast Overview

We will have a mix of junky WNW-NW windswell, funky winds, and weak background SW swell on tap for the next couple of days. Conditions clean up and the windswell drops off by Sunday as chilly offshore winds develop for many areas. Look for minor NW and more background SW swell to hold through the first part of next week…with the possibility of bigger WNW swell for next Thurs/Friday.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
We will see an increase in local WNW-NW windswell as a new cold front pushes through the region potentially bringing junky winds along with it. Small SW swell (200-220) begins to push in through the background. Look for average spots to see surf in the knee-waist high range. Top NW windswell breaks, and the NW windswell/SW swell combo spots, will be in the knee-chest high range with some bigger sets, around shoulder high+ showing in the San Diego area. Shape doesn’t look great thanks to the cold front…but there may be a small surf window in the morning before the winds get going. Winds/Weather: Look for variable onshore flow for the morning…mostly around 5-8 knots but with stronger NW flow showing around Santa Barbara and Ventura. NW winds 10-15+ knots with gusts to 20-25 knots are expected by the afternoon/evening.



Saturday
The mix of WNW-NW windswell and small SW swell (200-220) will hold into Saturday. Look for the average spots to continue to see knee-waist high waves with some chest high sets at the better exposed windswell breaks. Top NW facing spots, mostly through San Diego, will be in the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high+ sets at the best spots. Shape still looks pretty messy thanks to the steady onshore flow…but again there may be a small window of cleaner conditions sneaking through in the early morning. Winds/Weather: Santa Barbara through LA will have NW winds 10-12 knots for the morning while OC/SD sees more of a variable onshore flow around 5-knots. NW winds hit 15-20 knots by the afternoon with stronger gusts at times.



Sunday
If we are going to have a surf day this weekend Sunday looks like it will be it…the last of the cold front will have moved through the region and high-pressure will be rebuilding as it departs. Looks like winds should go a chilly/gusty offshore for many areas for the morning…unfortunately those winds will start to knock down the windswell almost the second they switch direction so we can expect a mix of fading NW windswell and weak background SW swell that will also be on the way down. Look for the average WNW-NW facing breaks to be in the knee-waist high range while the standout NW spots see some chest high+ waves through the morning and then progressively smaller surf by the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Cool morning temps and gusty offshore winds out of the N-ENE in the 10-20 knot range for the morning, strongest near passes and canyons. Afternoon winds will be lighter but look for building onshore flow to start up again late in the day.



Monday
Small NW windswell leftovers and very weak background SW swell hold on Monday. Most spots will drop into the knee high range with rare bigger sets. Standout NW facing breaks will be in the knee-waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. Winds/Weather: Light and variable morning winds. NW winds 10-12 knots build through in the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
I am starting to see a bit more activity in the North Pacific on the long-range charts…nothing that looks all that great…but it definitely feels like the storm track is going to gain some traction over the next few days.

For this weekend we can just expect minor NW leftovers and building local WNW-NW windswell from winds moving in along with a cold front…basically it will be sloppy, choppy, and chilly through Saturday and then clean up and fade out on Sunday. Good times.

Further out the new activity that I am starting to see will brew up later this weekend and through the early part of next week…so we would see a little increase in NW swell (290-300) on Monday/Tuesday…and then possibly a bigger WNW swell (285-300) for around Thursday/Friday, Nov 19-20. The weather doesn’t look all that good for the end of next week, but we are a waaaays out weatherwise and things may change before the swell actually gets here. Here are a couple of charts showing the long-range activity for next week.





South Pacific
The SPAC is still in its snoozefest mode…high pressure between Tahiti and Chile continues to dominate the swell track shutting down a lot of the storm track. It isn’t completely quiet down there…a steady, but weak, area of fetch has continued to spin up around the waters SE of New Zealand that has pushed out a few SW swells our direction. Unfortunately these look pretty weak…just sort of background energy that probably wouldn’t be worth mentioning if we had anything else going on. Look for these small pulses to push in over the upcoming weekend and through the middle/end of next week…nothing more than waist high+ at the top spots…hopefully it can combo up with the windswell to make things a little more fun.



Northeast Pacific Tropics
No storms are expected to develop for the next couple of days. We are getting pretty close to the end of the season.



Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, November 16th, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 11/09/2009

Forecast Overview

We will have a couple of still fun surf days on tap through the first part of the week. The NW swell will be fading but will still have enough energy to keep the exposed areas in playful rideable sizes. Small SW swell and local windswell will continue to hold in the background. A cold front moves in later in the week…we could see an increase in windswell (and onshore wind) starting on Thursday and holding into the weekend.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
Our surf will be dropping slowly throughout the day as the NW swell (290-300) and the SW swell (200-220) start to wind down…local windswell will continue to hold in the background. Average breaks can expect surf in the waist-chest high range while the standout NW facing spots, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and parts of San Diego, see some chest-shoulder high+ surf and a few head high sets still sneaking it through the morning. Winds/Weather: Winds are looking good for the morning, mostly light and variable to light-offshore for most areas. Patchy fog will continue to push over parts of the coast…so watch for some texture/bump around the edges. Look for W winds 10-12 knots to build in through the afternoon.



Wednesday – Veteran’s Day
The swell mix continues to back down as we see both the size and consistency of the NW energy taper off even more. The SW swell (200-220) will drop to a mostly “leftover” status and mingle with the background NW windswell. Average spots hold around waist high. Top NW facing spots, and the best combo breaks, will be more in the waist-chest high range with some rare shoulder high waves on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Look for another clean morning… winds will be mostly light and variable to light-offshore for most areas. Patchy fog will continue to push over parts of the coast. Look for W winds 10-12 knots to build in through the afternoon.



Thursday
Wave heights start to creep back up on Thursday as a new mix of stormy medium/short-period swell moves thanks to a cold front pushing through our outer waters. Surfwise conditions don’t look all that great and the majority of the energy will be bit of a short-period mess…but the swell direction shifts a little more westerly so more spots will be exposed to it…if the storm stalls out, or stays further north, we might get at least a little surf-window. Sizewise…it looks good for chest-shoulder high surf at the better W facing breaks and some head high sets at the standouts. Hopefully we will dodge the weather bullet and the surf will stay a little more surfable. Winds/Weather: At this point it looks a bit sloppy on Thursday. Morning winds are forecast to be out of the NW 10-20 knots…strongest up around SB/Ventura…and lighter as you move towards SD/OC. W winds around 10-15+ knots will be on tap for all areas by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
After that last big storm pushed through the NPAC (sending in that bigger NW swell over last weekend) the storm track has sort of shifted into a lower gear. There are still a few storms forecast to slip through on the edge of our swell window but in general any sort of swell they do generate will be much smaller and less consistent than what we had the last few days. We can expect a mix of medium-period WNW-NW swell holding for the next couple of days along with some building local NW windswell from a new cold front threatening to move down the coast later this week.

Further Out High pressure is starting to rebuild through the NE Pacific…sort of gumming up the mid-latitudes and forcing storm action up closer to the Aleutians…fortunately it hasn’t tried to ridge across to the Pacific NW (blocking up the Gulf of Alaska in the process). So at this point we still have a little bit of a gap between the high-pressure and the West Coast…check out the Sea-Level-Pressure Chart…



It is this gap that will let a little more storm action through in the next 3-4 days…potentially setting up some more WNW-NW swell for around the 16-19th…nothing huge at this point but definitely rideable size, which is always nice to see on the chart.



South Pacific
High pressure continues to plague the Southern Hemi storm track by holding position across a lot of the mid-latitudes over by Chile and Easter Island. The high is strong enough to disrupt most of the Southern Ocean, pushing most of the storm action southward to Antarctica rather than letting it move through our swell window. Most of the fetch lining up for Socal is positioned over by New Zealand in our SW swell window, which sucks for a couple of reasons. For one thing it makes swell travel a few thousand extra miles to reach us…which means that swell decay is more pronounced. Also it takes the swell right through the South Pacific islands, which chews up even more energy as the islands (and their seamounts) filter out some of the longer-period swell.



Basically I am not expecting much swell from the SPAC for the next few days…look for mostly background SW energy (200-220) in the knee-waist high range for most spots and a few chest high+ sets at the top standouts. These swells will overlap throughout the week …never really fading away but not doing all that much surfwise either.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Not much brewing up here at this time…no storms are expected to develop for the next couple of days.



Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, November 12th, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 11/05/2009

Forecast Overview

Our surf starts to slowly increase on Friday as new NW swell creeps in along with some building local windswell. A better NW swell, from the edges of the big storm in the Gulf of Alaska, will begin to blend into the mix on Saturday and will eventually peak on Sunday with some head high+ surf at the standout breaks. A smaller, but still rideable SW swell slips into the combo spots and good S-SW facing breaks Sunday and Monday. Make sure to watch out for slightly funky weather and the large tidal swings as we move through the weekend.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
Look for a slow start on Friday but our surf will eventually start to increase as a new NW swell (290-300) begins to send in some short-medium period energy and a weak windswell/SW swell hold in the background. Surf for the morning will average around knee high with a few slightly bigger sets showing at the standout NW facing breaks. Look for better NW spots to build into the waist-chest high range by the evening…top spots will be slightly bigger at times. Winds/Weather: Winds will be little unstable Friday morning…overall it looks light and variable but with a few pockets of onshore texture in a few areas. Expect NW winds 10-15+ knots to build in through the afternoon.



Saturday
Our mix of NW swell (290-300) gets a little bigger as we see some extra energy from local windswell and the first long-period bits from the bigger NW swell (again 290-300+)…SW swell leftovers continue to hold in the background. Look for the average WNW-NW facing breaks to bump up to the waist-chest high+ range while the standout NW spots, particularly those from LA northward, will see some chest-shoulder high waves as the swell mix fills in and a chance for some bigger sets by the late afternoon/evening. Winds/Weather: Still looking a little funky windwise...a cold front is expected to pass through the area this weekend and the wind models are calling for N-NW winds around 10 knots for SB/Ventura. OC and SD would see more W-WSW onshore flow in the 5-6 knot range. LA for some reason looks more E-SE winds with some almost eddyish circulation pulling winds around through the South Bay.



Sunday
The new NW swell (290-300+ with lots of shadowing from Point Conception and the Nearshore Islands) will peak as a new SW swell (200-220) fills in a bit more. Look for the average NW spots to build into the chest-shoulder high occasionally head high range. Standout NW facing spots, in Ventura, The South Bay, and San Diego, will be consistently in the shoulder-head high+ range with some inconsistent overhead+ sets mixing in. SW facing spots will be more in the waist-chest high range while the standout SW breaks, mostly through South OC/North SD, see some inconsistent shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: winds clean up…mostly light and variable in the morning with some pockets of onshore texture at the really wind sensitive areas. Look for NW winds 10-14 knots by the afternoon.



Monday
The NW’er (290-300+) will start to slowly back off along with the smaller SW swell (200-220). Average NW spots see chest-shoulder high sizes while the top spots see more chest-head high surf with some plus sets still showing in the morning. SW breaks continue to hold in the waist-chest high+ range. Winds/Weather: Conditions look pretty good…mostly light and variable winds through the morning, even light offshore for a couple of areas. NW winds around 10-14 knots build in through the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Storm activity definitely picked up in the North Pacific over the last few days. We had moderate storm spin through our swell window earlier this week that will send in some playful/rideable waves on Friday and into Saturday.





A much bigger storm is grinding through the Gulf of Alaska right now that will be sending a large NW swell to Northern and Central California this weekend…and a smaller version of this swell to Southern California. You can get a lot more details on this storm and how the energy will hit Nor/Cen California on the swell-alert that I sent out earlier…you can read the alert here…

http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2009/11/swell-alert-large-wnwer-heading-to.html

Southern California will see that new NW swell (290-300+) fill in slowly through the day on Saturday and then peak on Sunday before slowly fading on Monday. As the swell peaks look for many spots to have consistent chest-shoulder high surf with some bigger sets. Standout breaks will be shoulder-overhead pretty consistently with some bigger overhead+ waves sneaking in at times.

Further Out the NPAC is going to calm down a little bit…it won’t go totally quiet but overall activity does back down a lot. At this point it looks like we will see another playful sized chest-shoulder high NW swell (285-300) that moves in around the 11-12th. Not much showing after that one…at least right now.

South Pacific
The SPAC is still a snoozefest thanks to a stubborn ridge of high pressure holding position across a lot of the mid-latitudes…we will have a slightly better SW’er showing this upcoming weekend. This SW swell (210-220) that came from an ok, but not great, storm over by New Zealand. This new pulse will start to arrive on Saturday…build slowly, with inconsistent sets, throughout the day and will eventually peak on Sunday/Monday with surf in the waist-high+ range for many spots and a few chest high+ sets at the standout SW facing breaks. There will be a much stronger NW swell in the water at the time…so expect this swell to get mostly lost at the NW/SW combo spots…but hopefully it will add enough energy that we see some peakier shape at the better exposed breaks.

Further Out there isn’t much showing on the long-range charts…just a little bit of fetch hanging around New Zealand that will continue to poop out some weak SW pulses that will filter in as we head toward the middle of the month.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
There is a little tropical disturbance starting to pull together down by Mainland Mexico that is showing some signs of development.



Overall tropical weather conditions are decent…so this may actually become a tropical depression…maybe more…in the next couple of days though even if it does strengthen it would still be several more days before it could reach the Socal swell window. Still it bears watching though…I’ll let you know if anything changes.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, November 9th, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/