Waves for the Weekend – SW swell and some tropical SE-S swell from Hurricane Celia

Overall I would call this weekend rideable…but it will be hampered from reaching its true potential by local winds. (Stupid Eddy…I bet it is controlled by the dolphins.)

There will be surf this weekend…we have new SW swell (190-220) starting to fill in on Saturday, eventually peaking on Sunday and holding into Monday. On Saturday we will also have a mix of background tropical energy, some SW leftovers from TS Blas and some new SE forerunners form Hurricane Celia, but neither will bring in very much size. Look for NW windswell to hold steady in the background.



We can expect average spots to see surf in the chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets pulsing in at the better SW facing breaks. The top S-SW spots and the excellent combo breaks will have more consistent chest-shoulder high surf with some head high sets showing by the end of the day. Maybe even a few plus sets at times at the best sets.

Winds look light in the morning…with a little W flow around Santa Barbara and Ventura, variable winds throughout LA, and light Southerly winds for Orange County and San Diego. Most areas will see winds below 10-knots, but expect some texture at the more open breaks.



Sunday the SW swell (190-220) will start to peak, while new tropical SSE-SE swell moves in from Celia and the NW windswell continues to stick around in the background.



Average spots with S-SW exposure will see surf in the chest-head high range…a little inconsistent on the sets if the break is only exposed to the SW energy. The standout S facing spots, particularly the breaks that can pull in both SW and SE swell like a few of those in Orange County, will have surf in the shoulder-overhead range…with some larger sets, likely a couple of feet overhead, showing by late in the day. (the peak of the tropical swell will likely arrive on Monday).

Winds look a bit lighter on Sunday…the eddy flow will still be out there, but in general it won’t be as intense. Look for light onshore texture from the W in SB and Ventura…with some more variable winds in LA. OC and SD will see the light S winds again…but winds look slower, more in the 3-5 knot range, and they get a later start too…coming in right around dawn, which should suppress the wind bump a little more.



I think there will be some fun this weekend…even some occasionally healthy sized surf as the two SW and SE swells peak. I am still being a bit conservative on the Hurricane Celia swell…especially now that she has started to back off her intensity (she is down to a Cat-4 and is still weakening)…but there is always a chance that she could have out-produced her estimated wind speeds…so I would keep an eye on the buoys as we head into Sunday and Monday.

I think the points and reefs are going to have the best shape…with these SE-SW swells in the water it is bound to get pretty lined up at the beach breaks (the SE facing beach breaks will be particularly walled up and will see a lot of side-shore and rip currents once the tropical swell fills in). Like I said above…the buoys and live swell models (like the CDIP) are going to be your friends this weekend…make sure to use them to home in on the exposed areas, (or avoid them if you want smaller surf).

Here are the tides…happy hunting this weekend…stay safe!

06/26/2010 Saturday
04:26AM LDT -1.0 L
10:53AM LDT 3.6 H
03:28PM LDT 2.2 L
09:33PM LDT 6.0 H

06/27/2010 Sunday
05:01AM LDT -0.9 L
11:27AM LDT 3.6 H
04:07PM LDT 2.2 L
10:08PM LDT 5.8 H

Waves for Wednesday – on the weak side but with a new pulse of tropical SE swell

Wednesday will have some small, semi-rideable, surf…but if your break doesn’t have really good exposure to the swell mix you can expect some long waits between sets…and weak surf even when it does show.

In the water we will have a mix of fading local NW windswell, some small inconsistent SW swell (190-220), and some new tropical SE swell (155-165) coming from Tropical Storm Blas. Unfortunately these sort of swells don’t blend very well…the NW energy is a bit too steep so it doesn’t show at spots that have exposure to the tropical swell, and to top it off the SW’er is pretty inconsistent so it won’t help to fill in the gaps left by the other swells.



Most spots are going to average around knee-waist high on Wednesday, while the better S facing spots that can pull in some of the tropical SE swell and the SW swell will be more in the waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets on the lower tides. The standout S facing spots and the best combo breaks (either combining the SW/NW or the SW/SE), most of which will be in Orange County, will run in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent chest-to-almost-shoulder high sets sneaking in on the low-to-high tide push.

Winds look decent for the morning…mostly light and variable with a couple of weak pockets of variable onshore flow and light texture. Those winds turn onshore around mid-morning and build into the 10-15 knot range out of the W-WNW by the afternoon.



So again nothing super exciting on tap for Wednesday…but if your beach is well exposed it will probably be fun to break out the big boards. It is worth noting that I am being a bit conservative on the tropical swell from TS Blas...mostly because the swell angle is pretty steep from the SE, which doesn’t let many spots pick it up…but there is a chance that it will come in bigger than I have in the forecast. If you live close to a SE exposed beach it might be worth adding it to the list of breaks that you check…particularly if the swell looks a little peppier on the buoys.

Here are the tides…

06/23/2010 Wednesday
02:28AM LDT -0.6 L
08:49AM LDT 3.4 H
01:20PM LDT 2.1 L
07:38PM LDT 6.0 H

Tropical Alert – two tropical storms, one in our window, and the other heading our way

Over the last week or so the tropics have gone from 0-60…and it looks like it is just going to pour on the activity over the next few days.



We have two storms moving through the East Pacific Tropics this morning. The first system is Tropical Storm Blas…who formed up on June 17th. The first few forecast runs had TS Blas being a relatively weak system who would have dissipated back to a remnant low before hitting the Socal swell window…fortunately tropical systems like nothing better than to screw with the computer models…and so instead of weakening, Blas has intensified, shifted his track (to a better direction) and is now moving into our swell window. Blas will start to weaken again as he reaches cooler water but it looks like he will manage to send us some swell before he starts to fall apart.



At this point it looks like we will see a little SE swell from Blas…nothing outstanding…but there should be some rideable surf pushing into those little SE facing nooks and crannies that can only pick up the SE swell. We will see this new tropical energy moving in late on June 22nd…but with the peak of the swell hitting mostly on the 23rd. Wave heights won’t be that impressive, most spots will be the knee high range…but a few of the top SE facing spots, mostly through Orange County and a few other SE facing beaches will get a little punchier and a little bigger, tapping out in the chest high range…with a couple of bigger sets now and then.



The second system, TS Celia, is cranking along in the coastal waters just off of Central America. She is already a pretty strong Tropical Storm and she is intensifying rapidly, with winds hitting 55-65 knots at times in the key areas of the fetch . The hurricane model has her reaching hurricane strength early on Sunday and then holding that way for a couple of days. Unfortunately the storm is still a ways from the Southern California swell window…(well at least right now)…but the latest forecast are showing this storm moving further west, eventually reaching our swell window, in about 4 days…if this happens we would likely see another, possibly stronger, shot of tropical SE-SSE filling in around the 26-27th.

There is still a couple of days of swell formation so make sure to check back for the latest swell details as we get closer. Have a great father’s day!

Surf for Thursday – more tropical swell

Thursday could be a surf day…but we sort of need the winds to get their crap together tonight for the pieces to fall completely into place.

Swellwise we are seeing a new, slightly building S-SW swell (190-210) from Tropical Storm Linda, some new NW windswell, and some background SW swell (210-220). It doesn’t look like much on the CDIP…but the mix we have in the water right now was putting a few fun sets into the exposed areas on Wednesday…it should look like this tomorrow.





Average spots, with only OK exposure to the mix of swells or are just limited to one direction or the other, will be in the knee-waist high range with a few waist high+ sets on the lower tides. The top S-SW spots, and the excellent combo breaks, will be more consistently in the waist-chest high range with a few chest-shoulder high peaks setting up during the better tides.

Winds are where things get a little more dicey…the current forecast run is showing some W winds around 5-6 knots for the morning, which is really a direction that does no one any good. Hopefully the winds can lay down a bit more tonight and we can dodge the bumpy bullet. At this point though it looks like we should try and find some spots that have some protection from the onshore wind…places with high cliffs and/or kelp…since they will be a bit cleaner than the wide open spots. Look for building NW winds 10-15 knots by the afternoon.



With some decent little swell mix forming up for tomorrow I wish that the winds were better looking…but even with the threat of morning bump I do think that it is worth getting up and checking it, particularly if you are near a decent S-SW facing spot, like those in Orange County, parts of Northern LA, and a few of the Northern SD areas as well. If you live a ways from the beach I would at least try to power through some surf cams in the morning to make sure your target spots aren’t too chunky.

Here are the tides…I am going to look around for the wind switch and see if I can set it to light/variable.

01:38AM LDT 3.0 H
05:57AM LDT 2.4 L (a pretty fat low-tide)
12:53PM LDT 5.2 H
09:04PM LDT 1.0 L

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Linda becoming a hurricane

Tropical Storm Linda just got a little better looking



I have been watching Linda for a couple of days and her wave-making potential has been steadily increasing…so much so that we are actually seeing a little bit of tropical S-SW swell (190-210) already moving into our exposed breaks.

Linda has been sitting out in the NE tropical region…sort of hanging between our region and the Central Pacific tropical region. Initially forecasts had her jogging WNW slowly and then pushing westward further out towards Hawaii. But instead of moving she has hung almost completely still and strengthened, shrugging off some minor shear, and developing some nice feeder winds that stretch down into the ITCZ.



Now Linda is a strong Tropical Storm and is right on the verge of becoming a CAT-1 Hurricane. Her current wind speeds are holding around 60+ knots at the core with gusts to 70-knots at times. It looks like these will strengthen over the next 24 hours and push Linda into Hurricane Strength tonight and likely help her maintain those winds into midday tomorrow. Check out the QuikSCAT winds for the storm…



Surfwise what this means for us is some nice S-SW tropical swell (190-210) that fills in more on Thursday and will continue to push in some playful waves Friday through Sunday before we see a significant drop.

At this point I want to stay on the conservative side sizewise. I expect that the average SW facing spots will have surf in the waist-chest high range. Standout S-SW facing breaks, particularly spots that like the shorter-period S-SW swells, will be more consistently around chest high with some shoulder high sets mixing in. Chances are that we will see some bigger waves mixing on Friday/Saturday, depending on Linda actually reaching hurricane strength, but I don’t think we should count on them just yet.

Overall I think that these playful waves will be a nice filler for the gap in surf that we have been slogging through the last few days…nothing huge, but playful and at least rideable at the exposed areas.

Random Swell Update: New swell mix showing this morning

Some of the S facing spots are seeing some playful waves this morning...the mix of S-SW swell (180-200) and some tropical SSW swell (180-190) from TS Enrique is blending together pretty well. It was also nice of Mother Nature to chill out the winds this morning.

Check out the CDIP and the S-facing buoys...




Anyway looks like a lot of waist-chest peaks at the s-facing spots now that the tide is filling in. A few of the best S facing spots, mostly through Orange County, are already seeing some inconsistent shoulder high sets. I don’t think it is going to get a ton bigger...but the Southern Hemi swell will add some more energy as we move throughout the day.

If you get a chance you might to get out and ride a few before the tide gets too high.