Tropical Alert – two tropical storms, one in our window, and the other heading our way

Over the last week or so the tropics have gone from 0-60…and it looks like it is just going to pour on the activity over the next few days.



We have two storms moving through the East Pacific Tropics this morning. The first system is Tropical Storm Blas…who formed up on June 17th. The first few forecast runs had TS Blas being a relatively weak system who would have dissipated back to a remnant low before hitting the Socal swell window…fortunately tropical systems like nothing better than to screw with the computer models…and so instead of weakening, Blas has intensified, shifted his track (to a better direction) and is now moving into our swell window. Blas will start to weaken again as he reaches cooler water but it looks like he will manage to send us some swell before he starts to fall apart.



At this point it looks like we will see a little SE swell from Blas…nothing outstanding…but there should be some rideable surf pushing into those little SE facing nooks and crannies that can only pick up the SE swell. We will see this new tropical energy moving in late on June 22nd…but with the peak of the swell hitting mostly on the 23rd. Wave heights won’t be that impressive, most spots will be the knee high range…but a few of the top SE facing spots, mostly through Orange County and a few other SE facing beaches will get a little punchier and a little bigger, tapping out in the chest high range…with a couple of bigger sets now and then.



The second system, TS Celia, is cranking along in the coastal waters just off of Central America. She is already a pretty strong Tropical Storm and she is intensifying rapidly, with winds hitting 55-65 knots at times in the key areas of the fetch . The hurricane model has her reaching hurricane strength early on Sunday and then holding that way for a couple of days. Unfortunately the storm is still a ways from the Southern California swell window…(well at least right now)…but the latest forecast are showing this storm moving further west, eventually reaching our swell window, in about 4 days…if this happens we would likely see another, possibly stronger, shot of tropical SE-SSE filling in around the 26-27th.

There is still a couple of days of swell formation so make sure to check back for the latest swell details as we get closer. Have a great father’s day!

Tropical Update – Tropical Storm Nora

A tropical disturbance that had been drifting about 600 miles SW of the tip of Baja began to organize late last night and has now strengthened into Tropical Storm Nora.



Currently TS Nora is weak-to-moderate tropical storm with core winds in the 35-40 knot range and gusts getting up around 45-50 knots. She is positioned about 900 miles due south of SoCal...and is moving slowly to the WNW (tracking at 300-degrees) at a slow speed of about 8-knots.





Forecast models are calling for Nora to intensify over the next 24 hours, reaching the “strong” tropical storm level and possibly becoming a hurricane. While this intensification is good news it sounds like it won’t last that long...while the models agree on the intensification they also agree that she will hit cooler water and some upper level wind shear shortly afterwards, which gives her a very short swell-making period. You can see her track taking her into cooler water on the chart below.



The good news is that NORA is already in our swell window and is positioned so that any swell she sends out will be a more “democratic” S swell rather than a shadowed SE swell. It also helps that she is moving slowly and has a slightly more WNW track.

The bad news is that overall she is still a pretty small storm right now...with her Tropical Storm strength winds only reaching out about 40-50 miles...and while that may increase as she strengthens it doesn’t look like it will get all that much bigger.

So after looking at today’s forecasts...I do think that we will get a few waves from Tropical Storm Nora but that they are going to be on the small side. I am looking for the new S swell (170-185) to start moving in with some tropical knee-waist high sets by late Thursday and holding into Friday. There is a chance that it will come in bigger if, and it is a big if, the storm strengthens significantly and holds together longer than the forecast models indicate...but personally I am not holding my breath.

Tropical Update – Tropical Storm Marty

New tropical activity brewing up today...TD-16e formed early this morning and has now strengthened into Tropical Storm Marty.



TS Marty is inside our swell window but he is hanging just on the SE edge of it...which isn’t the best location for sending swell to SoCal since lots of our areas stay pretty shadowed. At this point the storm is real lopsided with a lot of the cloud convection occurring on westward side of the system (the side that has winds aiming away from us)...you can see some spin on the lower levels of clouds but it is hard to tell if the storm is really putting some wind on the water. Check him out on the visible satellite image...looks like he is hanging a bit to the left.



If you can’t tell I am not super stoked on Marty...he isn’t the strongest storm, he doesn’t have great circulation, and a lot of his swell generating side is right on the edge of the swell window. On the other hand he does have a couple of points in his favor...he is relatively close to SoCal (aprox 1000-1100 miles), he is forecast to strengthen slightly, and he is moving very slow (but deeper into the more southerly part of our swell window).

So at this point I am expecting some SE energy from Tropcial Storm Marty...but I think it is going to be minimal...likely chest high and below for the best spots...with the energy arriving on Thursday/Friday. As usual a lot depends on how he behaves over the next couple of days...if things improve I will let you guys know.

Tropical Update – Tropical Storm Ignacio

Tropical Depression 12e strengthened into Tropical Storm Ignacio this evening.



TS Ignacio is currently located about 650 miles SW of the tip of Baja and is in the S-SSE swell window for Southern California. Right now Ignacio isn’t a huge storm…core wind speeds are holding around 40-knots with some 50-knot gusts...and the good parts of fetch, the ones that are aiming towards SoCal are about 50-60 miles across.

Still he is going to be intensifying, at least according to forecasts, and could become a fairly intense tropical storm…he is not expected to reach hurricane strength at this time. You can see the convection (the cloud rotation) around the low in this satellite photo…



The more convection we see, and the more Ignacio looks like a hurricane, the better it is for swell production.

Another good factor…is his storm track…current forecasts have him moving WNW (290-degrees) at about 10-knots. This WNW path is actually supposed to steepen as he intensifies, which means that the stronger parts of the storm will be better aligned toward SoCal and could potentially be better for setting up swell.

From a surf standpoint I think that we will get some waves from Ignacio…nothing huge…but enough to ride. It looks like the first S swell (180) will arrive from Ignacio on Thursday. Since there will still be plenty of Southern Hemi swell in the water I don’t know that we are going to really be able to tell that the tropical swell is showing. Based on today’s forecast it looks like any energy from Ignacio would peak as we head into Saturday, hopefully the tropical energy will help prop up wave heights from our fading Southern Hemi…and keep us in consistent, but playful sized (chest-shoulder high) surf through the upcoming weekend.

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Guillermo

Tropical Storm Guillermo formed today and is already in our swell window.



Currently Guillermo is located about 600 mile WSW of the Tip of Baja and is located almost due South of Southern California. The National Hurricane Center has just barely classified Guillermo as a tropical storm, which means that the core winds are being estimated right at the 34-knot cutoff (any lower and it is classified as a tropical depression).

The forecasts have TS Guillermo strengthen slowly but steadily over the next couple of days…likely peaking in intensity on Friday. Today’s forecast does not have him reaching hurricane strength, but if conditions become more favorable it is a possibility.



From a surf perspective, if Guillermo can strengthen past the low-level tropical storm strength, it looks like we should get some waves from him. Like always, with these tropical systems, you have to weigh the good and the bad against each other.

On the good side…

1. Guillermo is well positioned – He is already in the swell window and any intensification that he can make will benefit swell production.
2. He is a decent sized storm – the effect NE/SE portions of the storm are expected to have TS strength winds across about 150-180 miles. He also has a lot of feeder winds coming up from the equator…all of which helps to extend the effective fetch.
3. He is moving slightly WNW (290-degrees) which isn’t all that bad considering his position.

On the bad side…

1. He is moving fast – forecasts are showing 15-17 knots in the storms movement. This is actually expected to accelerate a bit over the next couple of days.

2. His projected position in a couple of days – because of the fast movement it looks like a lot of his intensification is going to occur while he is further off to the west (closer to Hawaii). The extra distance…plus the shifting swell angle…won’t help extend the life of any swell we see.

On to the actual surf…based on today’s forecast it looks like we are going to see new SSE-S swell (170-180) filling in later on Friday. It won’t be much more than waist-high+ at the better S facing breaks since the storm is still pretty weak…but if we see better movement and intensification there could be some bigger waves as we head into Saturday.

I will keep you posted if I see any significant changes.

Tropical Update – Tropical Storm Enrique and Tropical Storm Felicia

You have to love the tropics...it goes from nothing to two named storms (three if you count TS Lana in the Central Pacific) in about 10 hours.

Unfortunately neither EPAC storm is all that great looking from a surf standpoint...oh we will see some swell from TS Enrique, but TS Felicia might be a little too far to the west to get much energy back towards SoCal.

Check out the charts from the National Hurricane Center

Tropical Storm Enrique


Tropical Storm Felicia


TS Enrique is much more probable as a swell-maker...but overall he doesn’t look all that good. As of this morning he is moving WNW (290) at about 14 knots and is expected to strengthen slightly as well as slow down his movement path. Current forecast models are calling the storm strength around 50-55 knots sustained in the core with gusts around 60 knots. His positioning is about 1100 miles SW of the tip of Baja and about 1700 miles S of Southern California right in the middle of our swell window.

There are a few things to like about TS Enrique...his position is good, wind speeds are increasing (which means that he will be able to maintain “wind on water”), and his movement path is ok. On the negative side...he isn’t that strong, he isn’t that large, and 14-knots is pretty fast when your effective fetch is only 30-50 miles across.

Keeping those things in mind, I think that we are going to see some background S swell from Enrique...some minor energy will start showing slowly throughout the day on Thursday and will likely peak overnight into Friday. I am expecting surf in the knee-waist high range for the average spots and possibly some chest high sets at the standouts. (I tend to stay on the conservative side sizewise on tropical swells like these...but if I see conditions/winds improve I will adjust the forecast).

TS Felicia is a bit further westward than TS Enrique...and is already veering westward (275-280) at about 16 knots. She is likely to become a hurricane in the next 12 hours but with her position well away from our area and her quick movement westward I am not expecting much, if any, surf from her. Likely she will be a problem for the Hawaiian Islands (the Big Island in particular) in a few days.

Tropical Update: TS Dolores

We have another new tropical storm...TD 5E formed up late last night, and by midmorning here on Wednesday it had become Tropical Storm Dolores.



Currently TS Dolores is holding approximately 1200 miles SE of Southern California and about 700 miles SSW of the tip of Baja. She is moving WNW (310) around 10-11 knots and is expected to intensify into a strong Tropical Storm over the next 24 hours. Long-range forecasts are showing TS Dolores hitting colder water (and some wind shear) after that 24 hours...but conditions are shifting that may allow her to stay more intense for a longer-period, which would be much better for us wavewise.



At this point TS Dolores is already in SoCal’s SE swell window...and is doing a few “good-things” that help swell production.

1. She is intensifying...(you always want the storm to get stronger or at minimum, hold strength)

2. She is a decent sized storm with almost 200 miles of 34+ knot winds in the NE and SE side of the system (the side that produces swell for us.)

3. She is moving roughly NW-WNW at a moderate pace. (The closer she can get to moving directly at us the more energy she will send out.)

4. Finally she isn’t too far...1200 miles is a reasonable distance...not great...but not as bad as it could be.



I do wish the storm was a bit stronger...and moving a bit more to the NW...but as it is I am still expecting some swell from Dolores.

Baja Sur will get waves from this Tropical Storm...I expect some S-SSW swell (180-190) to start showing at the exposed Pacific Side spots around the 16-17th with wave heights in the chest-shoulder high range for many spots and some bigger sets at the standouts.

SoCal will see this swell start to show through the day on the 17th strengthening towards the evening. Based on today’s forecasts the peak of the swell will be through the 18-19th. The swell will be more SE-S (165-180) for our region...so expect some shadowing at the start. Wave heights are going to be in the waist-chest high range at the average spots. Standout SE-S facing areas will be more consistently in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger sets.

Naturally we could see some bigger waves for all areas if TS Dolores intensifies past the current forecasts.

Tropical Update – Tropical Storm Norbet – Lamest storm name ever!

Seriously since when do they name storms after bad Eddy Murphy movies?

Anyway TS Norbert spun up on Saturday and looks like it has a good shot at becoming a hurricane on Monday. Unfortunately it is not in our swell window…and current forecasts have it falling apart before it can get into position to send us much surf.

Here is the current NHC track…you can see that this storm will be well positioned to send waves to Baja Sur…particularly Cabo and the East Cape for the next few days.



At this point Cabo should start seeing some surf by late Monday evening but the majority of the energy will arrive late Tuesday and into Wednesday/Thursday. A lot depends on how the storm actually moves but it looks like well-overhead S-SE swell will be on tap for the exposed areas in Baja Sur for most of the second half of the upcoming week.

Hopefully this one can make it to our swell window…I will keep you updated if I see any big changes.

Tropical Alert: Tropical Storm Marie - New storm forms in the East Pacific

Well the East Pacific Tropics had been pretty quiet over the last few weeks but it looks like conditions, especially the upper level winds, have improved and we are seeing the storm production turn back on.

Tropical Storm Marie formed this morning already inside of the Southern California swell window. She isn't the biggest or most intense storm yet but she is expected to intensify over the next 24-30 hours. Current forecasts are showing her reach really close to hurricane speed sometime Thursday afternoon, but not quite get all the way there.

Here is the NRL forecast for Marie...you can see the slight NW jog she makes over the next day...and then sadly she veers out to the west and weakens.



Here is a shot of her from the GOES Satellite...she is showing some decent cloud rotation and circulation on both the upper and lower levels.



Finally here is the current National Hurricane Center forecast...looks like she will stay pretty slow moving over the next few days before pushing off to the west.



From a surf standpoint Marie doesn't look like the best wave-maker...at least right now. She isn't all that wide, and forecasts don't have her more intense winds extending very far from the core of the storm. At this point I am looking for a moderate waist-chest high S-swell (180-190) from Marie, likely starting to arrive late Saturday and then peaking on Sunday before dropping off on Monday. The problem is going to be finding this swell since it will be mixing with SSW swell from the Southern Hemi, some WNW swell from the NPAC, and some good-sized wind-bump from increasing local NW winds. Really I am just expecting this tropical energy to add to the overall swell mix and, if our local conditions permit, help to give us a touch more size and consistency as everything comes together.

If I see any significant changes, or get really bored, I will send another update as this storm develops.

Tropical Update: TS Lowell – A sketchy lad

So I saw this TS Lowell tropical system form up Saturday night but held off until tonight to post anything on it, mostly because I didn’t like how the adverse upper level winds suddenly went “magical” and allowed the storm to develop. That is a hell of a lot of energy to reroute/disperse in such a short time. Turns out it was a pretty good call to hold back a bit.

During the first model run it looked like we might be “full systems go” for some tropical swell later this week…but watch what happened.

Forecast Saturday night.



Then Sunday morning



And Finally Sunday evening



As you can see it doesn’t paint a lovely picture…here is the kicker...even though the storm center skirts over the shadow it doesn’t bring a lot of energy with it.



I would still look for a slight increase in tropical SE swell (mostly short-period…almost like SE’erly windswell) by Tuesday evening and then holding into Wednesday before fading out later in the week. Likely this will get lost in the more dominant SSW swell…but we can always cross out fingers and hope that TS Lowell pulls his head out.

Tropical Update – TS Karina – straight out of nowhere

Things pull together pretty fast in the tropics…yesterday we had a patch of badly organized thunderstorms…then the upper level winds shifted and bam!...we have a new tropical storm.

Unfortunately TS Karina doesn’t look like much of a wave maker…she is in our swell window but she is small and her core winds are just barely reaching TS strength.

Forecasts are showing her dropping back to a depression by Wednesday evening.

From a surf standpoint I would expect a bit of short-period S swell for Baja Sur but any swell that can actually make it up to SoCal will likely be lost in the more dominant Southern Hemi energy.

It is worth keeping an eye on her though...with such a slow movement path, and a decent storm track, we may see her strengthen enough to generate some better surf. I am not holding my breath though.