Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 8/14/2009

Forecast Overview
New tropical SSE-SSW swell moves in from Hurricane Guillermo over the weekend while weak SW swell and minor NW windswell hang in the background. Nothing all that big showing over the next few days but at least we will have some waves to ride.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Saturday
Tropical S-SSW swell from Guillermo will start off in the waist-chest high range but it will fill in more through midday/afternoon...eventually building wave heights into the chest-shoulder high range at the average S facing spots with some head high sets at the standouts. SW swell (210-220) and NW windswell keep the lesser exposed spots from being totally flat but expect smaller surf at spots just exposed to those swells. Biggest surf will be in the OC, Northern San Diego, and Northern LA areas. Winds/Weather: slight eddy conditions on Saturday. Look for variable/Southerly winds around 2-4 knots for the morning as well as overcast skies. Sunnier skies and building WNW flow (10-12 knots) moves in through the afternoon.

Sunday
The tropical SSW swell (180-195) from Guillermo will continue to push in waist-shoulder high waves for most S facing spots. Standout S facing breaks and the excellent combo spots will see some chest-shoulder high surf with some less consistent head high sets. Look for this swell to drop slowly throughout the day. Winds/Weather: Clean morning conditions with light and variable winds on tap for most areas. Overcast skies continue through the early part of the day. WNW winds 10-12+ knots move in through the afternoon.

Monday
Fading tropical SSW swell (185-200) and weak leftovers from the Southern Hemi will mix up knee-waist high surf for the average exposed spots. Standout S facing spots will see surf in the waist-chest high range. Winds/Weather: the early morning looks ok...but there may be a touch of onshore texture at the more exposed spots as light W-WSW winds move through the area. Look for building onshore winds throughout the day.

Long-Range

North Pacific
Still not much going on in the NPAC...but there are some ok signs that the summer pattern is starting to break down. Hopefully we will see the storm track crack open in a few weeks and start kicking up some combo swell.

South Pacific
Things are looking up in the SPAC...there is a considerable amount of new storm activity showing on the forecast run...granted some of this is still a few days from forming but it has been a pretty consistent feature on the models, which usually gives it a better chance of actually occurring. For the short term our surf from the Southern Hemi is going to remain on the small side. We have a small, shadowed pulse of SW swell (210-220) that limps through Friday before dropping slowly through this weekend. Further out this is where the forecast gets more interesting...we have a strong low that is hanging just off Antarctic SE of New Zealand. This storm had some strong winds (40-50 knots) and is generating some large sea-state (the combo of swell and wind-chop that the storm brews up as its winds blow across the ocean’s surface). Just based on this first portion of the storm we can expect some new SW swell (200-210) moving in on Friday August 21 and then peaking on the weekend of the 22-23rd. This one looks good for chest-shoulder high waves at the decent SW facing spots, the standouts will see some inconsistent head high sets. It gets better the forecast is calling for a bunch of tropical/sub-tropical lows to dive bomb this already intense storm as it moves off Antarctica and deeper into our S-SSW swell window. Check it out...



As this mixing starts to occur it looks like we are going to see a stronger storm that is both closer to Socal and in a much more open portion of the swell window. This still has several days to develop but at this point it looks like a decent S-SSW swell lining up around the 25-26th...probably with overhead surf at the top spots. Like I said...this one isn’t set in stone yet...but personally I am going to make sure that I don’t schedule any meetings during those days.



Northeast Pacific Tropics
This region has been pretty active lately...we had named storms Enrique and Felicia last week...and now we have Hurricane Guillermo. Guillermo isn’t the strongest storm we have seen but he is well positioned and has made a lot of his intensification while he has been inside our swell window...all of which is good for producing tropical swell.



We are starting to see some S-SSE swell from Guillermo here on Friday and I expect this to strengthen overnight, peaking through Saturday and Sunday. Make sure to check the short-range portion for details on swell directions and wave heights.

Elsewhere in the tropics...it is a little quiet right now...there is a tropical disturbance waaaaay over by Hawaii...so far that the EPAC department of the NHC is about to turn it over to the Central Pacific...so no waves for us from that one. There are a couple of big thunderstorm bands just south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec but any development down there is going to be slow.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, August 17, 2009

- Adam Wright

Tropical Update – Guillermo is about to become hurricane

Tropical atmospheric conditions improved quite a bit for Guillermo here on Thursday. He has steadily intensified throughout the day and it looks like the National Hurricane Center is likely going to grant him Hurricane strength by later this evening. The latest forecast had core winds around 60-knots with gusts at 70-75 knots...core winds need to reach 65-knots for the NHC to call it a hurricane.



The strengthening, the increased convection, and larger size are all good for swell production and, to top it off, Guillermo slowed down a touch today. Instead of cruising along at 17-18 knots his movement speed has backed down to 12-13 knots, which will give the storm’s fetch more time over the sea-state it generates.



From a surf standpoint...we are definitely going to get a boost in the tropical S swell as we head into the weekend.

It takes S swell (in the 13-second range) about 2 days to travel from Guillermo’s position to Southern California...so I am expecting some slowly building tropical energy as we move through the day on Friday (since the storm formed on Wednesday). It won’t be much at first...but the swell will fill in more as we head into the evening. I would look for mostly knee-waist high waves at the S facing spots on Friday...with a few bigger waves at the top S-spots. The bigger sets will get a bit more consistent through the afternoon.

At this point, based on today’s forecast, it looks like the swell will turn slightly more S-SSW (180-195) as we head into Saturday. Look for the tropical energy to peak around midday on Saturday and hold solid through Sunday. The average S facing spots will likely be in the chest high+ range. The top S facing spots, particularly breaks that like tropical swell (the mid-low swell period energy...around 10-13 seconds), will be in the shoulder-head high range. Sets may be a bit inconsistent and finicky early on Saturday, but we can expect more consistency by the afternoon. The swell will hold into Sunday morning before fading out.



This isn’t a great storm, especially compared to many past tropical systems, but it will make some waves, and more importantly it fills a gap in our Southern Hemi activity. Should you bail on your family/kids, drop everything and try and surf 36 hours straight over the weekend?...no probably not...but if you were planning on doing chores or sitting around scratching yourself it should be worth a quick surf check, or an online pass through the buoys and cameras, once the swell gets going.

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Guillermo

Tropical Storm Guillermo formed today and is already in our swell window.



Currently Guillermo is located about 600 mile WSW of the Tip of Baja and is located almost due South of Southern California. The National Hurricane Center has just barely classified Guillermo as a tropical storm, which means that the core winds are being estimated right at the 34-knot cutoff (any lower and it is classified as a tropical depression).

The forecasts have TS Guillermo strengthen slowly but steadily over the next couple of days…likely peaking in intensity on Friday. Today’s forecast does not have him reaching hurricane strength, but if conditions become more favorable it is a possibility.



From a surf perspective, if Guillermo can strengthen past the low-level tropical storm strength, it looks like we should get some waves from him. Like always, with these tropical systems, you have to weigh the good and the bad against each other.

On the good side…

1. Guillermo is well positioned – He is already in the swell window and any intensification that he can make will benefit swell production.
2. He is a decent sized storm – the effect NE/SE portions of the storm are expected to have TS strength winds across about 150-180 miles. He also has a lot of feeder winds coming up from the equator…all of which helps to extend the effective fetch.
3. He is moving slightly WNW (290-degrees) which isn’t all that bad considering his position.

On the bad side…

1. He is moving fast – forecasts are showing 15-17 knots in the storms movement. This is actually expected to accelerate a bit over the next couple of days.

2. His projected position in a couple of days – because of the fast movement it looks like a lot of his intensification is going to occur while he is further off to the west (closer to Hawaii). The extra distance…plus the shifting swell angle…won’t help extend the life of any swell we see.

On to the actual surf…based on today’s forecast it looks like we are going to see new SSE-S swell (170-180) filling in later on Friday. It won’t be much more than waist-high+ at the better S facing breaks since the storm is still pretty weak…but if we see better movement and intensification there could be some bigger waves as we head into Saturday.

I will keep you posted if I see any significant changes.