Surf for Thursday – Nothing to get fired up about

Thursday will have a few rideable waves but a combination of spotty winds, building tides, and fluky/inconsistent swell will keep the fun factor pretty low.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of NW windswell, some inconsistent/fading SW swell (190-220), and some tropical SE swell (155-170) from TS Blas. Like I said yesterday this mix of swells don’t blend together all that well…so we don’t get the boost in size like we would from swells that have a little more compatible swell directions.



Most breaks will continue to hold around the knee high range on Thursday with some inconsistent waist high sets showing on the lower tides. The better exposed average SW or SE facing spots will have some slightly bigger sets sneaking through at times. The standout spots, basically the excellent combo spots and maybe a few of the really good SE/SW facing spots, will have more consistent waist high surf with a few chest high sets showing on the really, really, really, really good sandbars. If you can’t take the hint…it will need to be a really good SE/SW exposed spot to get the bigger waves.

The winds will be a bit squirrelly as well…there is a weak trough of low-pressure holding in the upper levels that is enhancing the onshore flow. The eddyish circulation is supposed to continue on Thursday…blowing southerly winds through San Diego/OC with some swirly flow through LA and some W-NW winds through Santa Barbara and Ventura. Winds should be on the lighter side, around 5-6 knots for the morning. Expect moderate onshore winds in the 10-15 knot range out of the W-WNW by the afternoon.



Not much to get excited about…though there is always a chance that the tropical swell will get a boost tomorrow (reflecting how TS Blas moved into a more open portion of the tropical swell window). With the wind being funky and the other swells being on the marginal side…I wouldn’t commit much energy to the surf. I would stick to checking the cameras and wind observations in the morning and if you don’t see anything that floats your boat then going back to bed and surfing your pillow for a little while longer.

Here are the tides…

06/24/2010 Thursday
03:11AM LDT -0.9 L
09:36AM LDT 3.6 H
02:06PM LDT 2.2 L
08:18PM LDT 6.1 H (swampthing!)

Waves for Wednesday – on the weak side but with a new pulse of tropical SE swell

Wednesday will have some small, semi-rideable, surf…but if your break doesn’t have really good exposure to the swell mix you can expect some long waits between sets…and weak surf even when it does show.

In the water we will have a mix of fading local NW windswell, some small inconsistent SW swell (190-220), and some new tropical SE swell (155-165) coming from Tropical Storm Blas. Unfortunately these sort of swells don’t blend very well…the NW energy is a bit too steep so it doesn’t show at spots that have exposure to the tropical swell, and to top it off the SW’er is pretty inconsistent so it won’t help to fill in the gaps left by the other swells.



Most spots are going to average around knee-waist high on Wednesday, while the better S facing spots that can pull in some of the tropical SE swell and the SW swell will be more in the waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets on the lower tides. The standout S facing spots and the best combo breaks (either combining the SW/NW or the SW/SE), most of which will be in Orange County, will run in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent chest-to-almost-shoulder high sets sneaking in on the low-to-high tide push.

Winds look decent for the morning…mostly light and variable with a couple of weak pockets of variable onshore flow and light texture. Those winds turn onshore around mid-morning and build into the 10-15 knot range out of the W-WNW by the afternoon.



So again nothing super exciting on tap for Wednesday…but if your beach is well exposed it will probably be fun to break out the big boards. It is worth noting that I am being a bit conservative on the tropical swell from TS Blas...mostly because the swell angle is pretty steep from the SE, which doesn’t let many spots pick it up…but there is a chance that it will come in bigger than I have in the forecast. If you live close to a SE exposed beach it might be worth adding it to the list of breaks that you check…particularly if the swell looks a little peppier on the buoys.

Here are the tides…

06/23/2010 Wednesday
02:28AM LDT -0.6 L
08:49AM LDT 3.4 H
01:20PM LDT 2.1 L
07:38PM LDT 6.0 H

Tropical Alert – two tropical storms, one in our window, and the other heading our way

Over the last week or so the tropics have gone from 0-60…and it looks like it is just going to pour on the activity over the next few days.



We have two storms moving through the East Pacific Tropics this morning. The first system is Tropical Storm Blas…who formed up on June 17th. The first few forecast runs had TS Blas being a relatively weak system who would have dissipated back to a remnant low before hitting the Socal swell window…fortunately tropical systems like nothing better than to screw with the computer models…and so instead of weakening, Blas has intensified, shifted his track (to a better direction) and is now moving into our swell window. Blas will start to weaken again as he reaches cooler water but it looks like he will manage to send us some swell before he starts to fall apart.



At this point it looks like we will see a little SE swell from Blas…nothing outstanding…but there should be some rideable surf pushing into those little SE facing nooks and crannies that can only pick up the SE swell. We will see this new tropical energy moving in late on June 22nd…but with the peak of the swell hitting mostly on the 23rd. Wave heights won’t be that impressive, most spots will be the knee high range…but a few of the top SE facing spots, mostly through Orange County and a few other SE facing beaches will get a little punchier and a little bigger, tapping out in the chest high range…with a couple of bigger sets now and then.



The second system, TS Celia, is cranking along in the coastal waters just off of Central America. She is already a pretty strong Tropical Storm and she is intensifying rapidly, with winds hitting 55-65 knots at times in the key areas of the fetch . The hurricane model has her reaching hurricane strength early on Sunday and then holding that way for a couple of days. Unfortunately the storm is still a ways from the Southern California swell window…(well at least right now)…but the latest forecast are showing this storm moving further west, eventually reaching our swell window, in about 4 days…if this happens we would likely see another, possibly stronger, shot of tropical SE-SSE filling in around the 26-27th.

There is still a couple of days of swell formation so make sure to check back for the latest swell details as we get closer. Have a great father’s day!