Friday’s Surf – mixing S-SW swells, some NW windswell, and a chance for more stupid eddy

Friday will be rideable…but there is a chance the eddy will be back, so some of the more S wind sensitive spots may have some texture/crumble hampering shape.

In the water we will have a small/playful sized mix of overlapping S-SW swells (180-210) that are a combination of swell from earlier in the week and new Southern Hemi swell. NW windswell continues to hold in the background…but it will shift a little more WNW-NW in swell direction so we will see a little more consistency at spots that can pull in the S and NW energy.



Wave heights aren’t going to see much change…most spots will be in the knee-waist high range with some chest high sets occasionally sneaking into the best combo spots and the better S-SW exposed spots. The standout breaks, mostly in Orange County and parts of San Diego, will have surf in the waist-chest high range, with some inconsistent chest-shoulder high sets.

Wind-wise the eddy is forecast to return on Friday...though it looks like the intensity is a little questionable. A lot is going to depend on how things play out overnight…and if winds in the outer-waters increase we would see the eddy settle in. If tonight’s winds stay a little more calm along the coast as well as the outer waters, then we have a shot at light/variable winds for the morning. Since staying up all night staring at your trees probably isn’t the greatest use of your time, I think our best bet will be to check the wind stations or surf cams in the morning or just plan on sticking to a spot that has some shelter from the light/moderate S wind. The onshore winds are forecast to come up by the afternoon, expect W-WNW winds in the 10-15+ knot range with some gusts nearing almost 20-knots.

Check out the slight differences between the weather models…the COAMPS is calling for lighter morning winds, while the NOAA/NWS is showing a more pronounced eddy.









Nothing super exciting on Friday…but it will still be fun if the winds mange to stay down. I would probably stick with spots that have some S wind protection and can pull in more of the S-SW/NW combo energy, just so you can take advantage of cleaner conditions and a little more consistency out of the surf. It will probably be more fun with your small wave gear…but you might be able to use a more normal board at the top S-SW facing breaks.

Here are the tides…

07/02/2010 Friday
12:34AM LDT 4.0 H
07:40AM LDT 0.8 L
02:28PM LDT 4.0 H
08:26PM LDT 2.4 L

Waves for Wednesday – Overlapping Southern Hemi swells and onshore texture

Wednesday will be surfable…but we will continue to have the onshore wind tweaking the shape at the more exposed areas.

Swellwise our S-SW and tropical S-SE swells from earlier in the week will continue to slowly fade, but at the same time we have another round of S swell (180-190) coming in from the Southern Hemi that will help to keep the surf from dropping very much.



The average S facing spots will be in the waist to chest high range with some shoulder high+ sets showing on the tide push. The standout S facing breaks, mostly the top breaks in Orange County, will have shoulder-head high surf and a few inconsistent head high+ sets that will sneak through on those better tides. Overall the sets will be less consistent than the last couple of days…but they should still be decent when they show.

Winds don’t look great…the models are calling for some variable onshore flow for the morning. It actually looks cleanest through Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles...winds in those areas will be below 5-6 knots and sort of shifty in direction. Orange County and San Diego can expect W-NW winds around 5-8 knots…possibly a touch lighter first thing in the morning, but pushing stronger onshore by midmorning and junking things up fairly fast. Look for W-WNW winds 12-18 knots for the afternoon.





It seems like we can’t get much of a break from these winds…sure there are some protected spots…but it would be nice to have a wider selection of breaks to pick from. Anyhoo…like I mentioned it will be surfable on Wednesday…just not all that clean…so if you can stand some bump or have a spot with some wind-protection it will be worth checking at least. I think the early morning will probably have the best shape, but you will want to stick to spots that can handle a lower tide…or some wind blockage.

Here are the tides…

06/30/2010 Wednesday
06:38AM LDT 0.0 L
01:11PM LDT 3.8 H
06:15PM LDT 2.4 L
11:53PM LDT 4.6 H

Surf for Thursday – Nothing to get fired up about

Thursday will have a few rideable waves but a combination of spotty winds, building tides, and fluky/inconsistent swell will keep the fun factor pretty low.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of NW windswell, some inconsistent/fading SW swell (190-220), and some tropical SE swell (155-170) from TS Blas. Like I said yesterday this mix of swells don’t blend together all that well…so we don’t get the boost in size like we would from swells that have a little more compatible swell directions.



Most breaks will continue to hold around the knee high range on Thursday with some inconsistent waist high sets showing on the lower tides. The better exposed average SW or SE facing spots will have some slightly bigger sets sneaking through at times. The standout spots, basically the excellent combo spots and maybe a few of the really good SE/SW facing spots, will have more consistent waist high surf with a few chest high sets showing on the really, really, really, really good sandbars. If you can’t take the hint…it will need to be a really good SE/SW exposed spot to get the bigger waves.

The winds will be a bit squirrelly as well…there is a weak trough of low-pressure holding in the upper levels that is enhancing the onshore flow. The eddyish circulation is supposed to continue on Thursday…blowing southerly winds through San Diego/OC with some swirly flow through LA and some W-NW winds through Santa Barbara and Ventura. Winds should be on the lighter side, around 5-6 knots for the morning. Expect moderate onshore winds in the 10-15 knot range out of the W-WNW by the afternoon.



Not much to get excited about…though there is always a chance that the tropical swell will get a boost tomorrow (reflecting how TS Blas moved into a more open portion of the tropical swell window). With the wind being funky and the other swells being on the marginal side…I wouldn’t commit much energy to the surf. I would stick to checking the cameras and wind observations in the morning and if you don’t see anything that floats your boat then going back to bed and surfing your pillow for a little while longer.

Here are the tides…

06/24/2010 Thursday
03:11AM LDT -0.9 L
09:36AM LDT 3.6 H
02:06PM LDT 2.2 L
08:18PM LDT 6.1 H (swampthing!)

Tuesday’s Surf – SW swell and negative low-tide drainers

Tuesday will be surfable…but watch out for the negative low tide that drains out a lot of the surf through the morning.

Our surf will be a mix of holding SW swell (190-215) and some background WNW-NW windswell. The SW swell is a bit inconsistent but fun at the exposed spots…just expect some waiting between the sets…and look for the SW’er to start to wind down by the afternoon.



Average SW facing spots and the better combo breaks will be in the waist-chest high range on Tuesday. The standout SW facing spots, mostly in Orange County, will have some chest-shoulder high waves with some inconsistent head high sets (possibly getting a little bigger as the tides even out a bit).

Winds look ok, not great…but not hurting us too much either. We will have a slight eddy on Tuesday but it looks like light/variable to light S winds for most spots in the morning…in general winds will be below 5 knots, with the cleanest conditions in LA/Ventura and some slight texture to OC and SD. Look for building W-WNW winds hitting 10-15 knots by the afternoon.



Tuesday looks like a decent surf day, nothing too special, but rideable wit light winds and water that continues to warm up. Like a lot of you noticed the negative low-tide did not do us any favors on Monday (I should have called out that low-tide better in my Monday update)…and I expect that to be the case again on Tuesday. If you have to surf super early you are going to want to stick with SW facing spots that really like/need the low-tide to work…anywhere else is going to be too small or too drained out to be much fun. I still think the points/reefs will be the most fun on this SW swell…but with the windwell coming up a touch there may be a few more corners at the combo spots.

06/15/2010 Tuesday
06:28AM LDT -1.1 L (sucky!)
01:03PM LDT 3.8 H
05:56PM LDT 2.2 L
11:50PM LDT 5.7 H

Thursday’s Surf – More crappy winds…

Thursday isn’t looking like much of a surf day…

Like the title says the wind isn’t going to be very good on Thursday. There is a low-pressure moving through the Pacific NW that is driving some strong NW winds down the coast, which in turn are going to spin up a fragile eddy while pushing it into a pretty poor location next to the coast…and yep you guessed it…that pretty much sucks for us. The eddy isn’t even going to fend off the W-NW winds for very long…it looks like gusty onshores setting up pretty early in the day.

Swellwise the S-SW swells (180-210) will back down a touch but they won’t completely drop off. The NW windswell will actually dip down a bit too, in response to Wednesday’s lighter outer water winds, but it will be pushing back up by the late afternoon.



Look for most spots to be in the waist high range on Thursday…with a few waist-chest high sets at the better SW facing spots. The standout SW breaks and the best combo breaks see some more consistent chest high surf with some shoulder high sets mixing in.

Winds will be swirling all over in the morning…and like most eddy days, the various wind models are just sort of guessing on how it is going to behave. Check out the COAMPS and the NOAA models for the morning…

COAMPS


NOAA (Full Socal)


NOAA (Zoom Ventura through Los Angeles)


NOAA (Zoom OC through San Diego)


They are basically calling for the eddy to set up right over Palos Verdes…letting 8-10 knot S-SSW winds push into San Diego and Orange County and 10-15+ knot W-NW winds from North LA on up through Santa Barbara. The South Bay looks like it might see lighter winds right at the start of the day…but the NW winds will get a jump on things pretty fast. There may also be a small window of semi-clean conditions at the spots with protection from the S winds in Orange County and San Diego but I wouldn’t spend a lot of time trying to get to breaks in either region…the winds will turn onshore pretty fast in those areas as well. W-NW winds around 13-15+ knots will push through all of Socal through the afternoon.

I wish I had better news for you guys about Thursday…but it just doesn’t look like we should waste too much time on it. I would still probably give the cameras/wind stations a check in the morning just because the eddy is a bit of a trickster, but there isn’t a ton of swell in the water so we won’t really be missing much even if things stay sloppy. Friday does look a little better windwise…but it might take till the weekend until we see real improvement.

Here are the tides…

06/10/2010 Thursday
03:00AM LDT -0.6 L
09:21AM LDT 3.4 H
01:51PM LDT 2.1 L
08:06PM LDT 6.0 H

Surf for Tuesday – S-SW swell, some windswell, and some more eddy

Tuesday looks surfable…but June Gloom/eddy winds will keep some onshore texture/crumble showing at the more exposed spots.

More overlapping S-SW swell (180-210) will continue to mix and peak on Tuesday. NW windswell will also continue to hold in the background…possibly picking up just a touch at the more NW facing spots.



Most S-SW facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout S-SW facing spots, mostly through South OC and San Diego, will be in the chest-head high range with some occasionally bigger sets mixing in on the lower tides.

The eddy continues to hang over the coast on Tuesday…and we can expect pretty thick overcast skies that will have trouble burning off no matter how warm it gets inland…there is even a chance for some fog to move in through Ventura and LA Counties. Look for variable winds for the morning…mostly clean conditions, with a touch of S winds for San Diego and Orange County…and some SE flow for LA and Ventura while Santa Barbara stays mostly NW. Winds should be below 5 knots for the morning…but turn more onshore and pick up to 5-6 knots by midmorning through lunch. W-WNW winds around 10-15 knots will return through the afternoon.







Basically Tuesday will be very similar to the last few days…nothing super clean but not enough wind to blow it out either (particularly through the early morning). There is enough S-SW swell to have fun at most of the summer spots…but you are definitely going to see a big size difference between LA County and the more exposed areas of Orange County and San Diego. If you are looking for size and consistency…I think your best bet is going to be the S-SW facing combo spots in OC and SD…with the cleanest conditions at spots that have some protection from the S winds.

Here are the tides…

06/08/2010 Tuesday
01:44AM LDT 0.5 L
07:45AM LDT 3.1 H
12:30PM LDT 1.9 L
06:54PM LDT 5.4 H

Tuesday’s Surf – Fading but playful through the morning

Compared to the last several days Tuesday looks like a semi-surf day. (yes I know there have been a few clean spots if you knew where to look…but for most breaks it has been pretty sloppy).

Tuesday is looking pretty manageable through the morning…enough swell to still push in some solid surf and finally a bit of clean up with the early winds. Right now it looks best through early to mid-morning…then the W-NW winds return in the afternoon.

The S-SSW swell will be slowly fading on Tuesday but it should still have plenty of energy showing. NW windswell will hold in the background but may lose a little steam as the local winds back off a bit.



Average S facing spots and the good NW breaks will be in the chest-head high range with a few bigger waves mixing in during the lower tides. The standout S facing spots in Orange County, and the best NW combo spots (mostly in SD) will see some shoulder-head+ surf with sets still going a couple of feet overhead.

Winds will be mostly light and variable in the morning…with a touch of NNW flow for Santa Barbara and Ventura, along with a bit of southerly texture showing down in San Diego. It looks like winds are going to lay down late Monday night so there may be some leftover funky chicken on the ocean surface even with the light winds. Look for W-NW winds to return by the afternoon topping out around 10-18 knots by late in the day.







Overall Tuesday is looking like one of the best surf days this week…the onshore wind is likely to return on Wednesday, and then stay funky through the end of the work week (stupid wind). It looks like the dawn patrol through the first few hours of daylight will be the cleanest…then onshore winds pick up around lunchtime. S facing spots, like those in OC, will have the biggest size…but the other S spots throughout Socal should stay pretty playful as well.

Here are the tides… Happy Birthday Jack (my son is turning 5) and Scott (a good friend of mine who acts like he is 5)!

05/25/2010 Tuesday
02:29AM LDT -0.6 L
08:33AM LDT 3.6 H
01:41PM LDT 1.4 L
07:56PM LDT 6.1 H

Waves for the weekend – Plenty of swell, but plenty of wind too (stupid wind)

This weekend isn’t looking that great…

We will have two good sized swells this weekend…but we will also get the worst part of a cold-front/low-pressure that moves through Central California (and trails winds down over Southern California). The new S-SSW swell (180-210), that is already showing about 2.5 feet of deepwater swell at 18-22 seconds here on Friday afternoon, will peak with nearly 4- to 5-feet of swell midmorning on Saturday. At the same time WNW-NW windswell will move down the coast and strengthen as we move throughout the day.



Sizewise on Saturday we can expect average S facing spots and average NW facing breaks to be running shoulder-overhead on the sets with a few bigger waves mixing in at times. The standout S facing areas and the best combo breaks, mostly through Orange County, will see consistent head high to a couple of feet overhead on the average sets and then some bigger waves going a few feet overhead on the largest sets. A few of the best breaks will have waves going well-overhead pretty consistently along with a few bigger waves as well.

The wind conditions are where this weekend is going to suck…look for building onshore flow pretty much from the early morning on…you can see a few little tiny pockets showing around LA and parts of OC at about 5-6am on Saturday…these pretty much evaporate in building W winds a couple of hours after sunup. Once the wind gets going by lunchtime…expect 10-20 knot W-WNW flow for all areas and some stronger gusts up around Santa Barbara and Ventura



Sunday the S-SSW swell (180-210) will hold along with the larger bump in windswell…unfortunately the onshore winds look even worse.



Size will be pretty similar to Saturday…most spots running shoulder-head high with some overhead waves mixing in. The standout S facing breaks, the best NW facing spots, and better combo breaks will see head high surf with sets going a couple of feet to well-overhead at times. Again a few of the freaky S facing breaks will have some well-overhead+ surf mixing in during the morning.

Winds look very bad…W-WNW around 10-20 knots for the morning and then building 15-25 knots for the afternoon with gusts hitting near gale force (at 35-knots). Neither the COAMPS or the NWS models are calling for any clean spots in the morning…frankly both of the models make Sunday morning look like poop…and the afternoon is worse. I think it is time for spring to go away.



Since there is a lot of swell in the water I don’t think you can totally write-off this weekend…sure it will be hacked up and sloppy for almost everywhere, but there always seems to be a little obscure nugget of a spot that can hold rideable shape somehow. Plus there are a few waves, that stay semi-rideable (depending on your equipment), no matter what the wind is doing…I am not saying that they will be great or anything, just that you can still get out and ride a wave. I would give the cams, buoys, wind-obs a check in the morning, just to make sure that these winds didn’t do something funky overnight.

Here are the tides…I think we might need to offer up a human sacrifice to make the winds go away…I will get right on that.

05/22/2010 Saturday
05:08AM LDT 3.7 H
11:27AM LDT 0.6 L
06:03PM LDT 5.1 H

05/23/2010 Sunday
12:48AM LDT 0.7 L
06:27AM LDT 3.6 H
12:15PM LDT 0.9 L
06:41PM LDT 5.6 H

Friday’s Surf – S-SW swell and a touch of eddy

Friday looks like a surf day…but it may be hiding in the morning fog in a few areas.

We are going to have a mix of S-SW swell (180-210) that will be starting to peak around midday and some NW energy (290-300) coming from a mix of local windswell and some various background NPAC storms.



Check it out…you can see the new S-SW swell showing on the buoys this evening…



Average breaks will be in the waist-chest high range. The standout S facing spots and the excellent NW/S combo breaks, mostly through Orange County and parts of San Diego, will see surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head+ sets mixing in on the lower tides. Since a lot of the energy will be from the Southern Hemi, expect some long waits between the bigger sets.

Winds and weather look ok for Friday…not great…just sort of ok. We have a coastal eddy forming tonight that is going to set up some light onshore flow for Santa Barbara down through Northern LA County. The eddy is forecast to center around San Clemente Island which would lighten up winds for the southern regions. So at this point it looks like light/variable winds for the South Bay and then staying light on down to San Diego. One bad thing about this eddy is that it is going to cool off the air pretty quick…and as it does there could be some heavy fog (patchy heavy fog) in a few areas. So if you are unlucky enough to get the fog there may be some funky winds around the edges. Look for WSW-W winds around 10-14 knots for the afternoon.



Overall Friday looks like a surf day…but there are a lot of little things that could trip it up. Funky winds, a fat morning tide, inconsistent swell, dolphins, (just to name a few)…if we get the wrong mix it might keep conditions/shape from being all that good. Personally I am going to give the winds/weather a computer check in the morning before hopping in the truck…I am crossing my fingers that the eddy isn’t too strong, and that the fog holds further off the coast.

Here are the tides…

04/09/2010 Friday
01:17AM LDT 1.7 L
06:53AM LDT 4.1 H
01:34PM LDT 0.4 L
07:50PM LDT 4.1 H

Thursday’s Surf – Getting funky now

Thursday will have surf…but it looks like onshore winds will keep it from being much of a surf day…stupid wind.

We are going to have a mix of fading SW swell (195-215), building NW swell (290-300), and increasing local windswell.



Average spots will continue to see waist-chest high surf with some inconsistent shoulder high sets. The best spots…both SW and NW (and combo) will have surf in the shoulder-head high range with some inconsistent head high+ sets on the lower tides.

Winds do not look good for Thursday…I am hoping the weather models are overcalling the morning but they have been showing these winds for the last few runs so we might not be able to avoid them. A cold front is supposed to pass over the region tonight…setting up some W-NW winds really early Thursday morning that continue to strengthen throughout the day. At this point it looks like W winds around 5 knots for most areas in the morning with some 10-knot gusts in the more northern counties (SB/VEN). These winds will build into the 10-20 knot range by the afternoon with some gusts around 25 knots at times.



Like I said…the winds don’t look so good tomorrow...but I am not totally ready to write-off Thursday morning yet. Both the NWS and COAMPS models are showing some lighter pockets of wind from LA on down through San Diego…those winds are still onshore, just lighter than other spots. What is going to make the biggest difference is how early the winds get to blowing onshore…if the W flow just holds up overnight then we are pretty screwed…but if the winds lay down a bit after sunset and then don’t start pushing onshore until close to dawn there might be a little wiggle room for a morning session. Since we have swell in the water it might be worth checking the cams or the wind observations in the morning…we might get lucky and find a little surfy pocket here and there.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/25/2010 Thursday
05:41AM LDT 4.9 H
01:02PM LDT -0.5 L
07:31PM LDT 3.9 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 3/08/2010

Forecast Overview

NW windswell and sloppy conditions will stick around for the next couple of days. The windswell fades out but conditions improve (a lot) on Thursday and we will still manage to pull in a small/playful swell mix. Look for clean conditions and smaller surf on Friday…but then we start to see a new round of WNW-NW swell and more Southern Hemi swell arrive over the weekend.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday
Steady, steep NW windswell (290-300), some smaller WNW-NW swell (285-300), and some background SW swell will hold on Tuesday. Unfortunately the conditions look pretty sloppy and onshore winds will keep it from being a surf day. Look for waist-chest high surf at the average exposed breaks while the standout NW facing spots, mostly through Southern San Diego, see some shoulder-head high+ sets. Winds/Weather: Another cold front moves through Monday night and helps set up some NW winds for Tuesday. Look for WNW-NW winds around 10-12 knots for the morning and then gusts hitting 15-25 knots by the afternoon. Increasing cloudiness but not really any rain expected.



Wednesday
The mix of steeply angled NW windswell, WNW-NW energy, and SW swell will hold on Wednesday but conditions don’t look much better than Tuesday. Look for more waist-chest high surf at the average NW facing spots with some shoulder-head high+ sets at the top NW facing spots. Winds/Weather: Another fast moving cold front is forecast to move through Tuesday night that will set up more NW clearing winds to develop behind the front on Wednesday. At this point it looks like more WNW-NW winds around 10-14 knots on tap for Wednesday morning (lightest right around dawn) and then 15-20 knot WNW-NW gusts pushing through during the afternoon.



Thursday
Thursday looks like a surf day…it won’t be outstanding but conditions will be considerably cleaner than the early week and we should have enough swell holding on that we can get out and ride some waves before it fades out too much. Swellwise we are going to see a mix of fading NW windswell, some weaker WNW-NW swell (285-300) and some peaking background SW swell (200-220). The swell combo will be good enough for waist-chest high surf at the average exposed spots with some shoulder-head high sets at the standout NW facing breaks and excellent combo spots. Winds/Weather: High-pressure tries to ridge across Socal on Thursday…seeing up light/variable to light/moderate offshore winds for the morning and then just variable winds below 10-knots for the afternoon. Beach temps should be pretty nice as well.



Friday
The NW/SW swell mix will back off slightly on Friday…but conditions should hold together to keep us in small but playful surf at the exposed breaks. Look for knee-waist high waves for most of the average breaks with some chest high sets still sneaking into the best combo breaks. The standout NW facing spots will be more in the waist-chest high range with a few chest-shoulder high sets if the beach has some SW exposure to mix things up. Winds/Weather: Winds will be light and variable in the morning with some areas of light offshore flow. Look for variable onshore winds in the afternoon…mostly below the 10-12 knot range.



Long-Range

North Pacific
So it may have been a little early to count the NPAC completely out of the game....there are a couple of new, better looking, systems forecast to form over the next week that have potential to start sending in more WNW-NW swell for the upcoming weekend and the middle of next week.

The next couple of days we will have to endure some springy conditions…the NE Pacific high-pressure has rebuilt and is strengthening off to the NE of Hawaii, just far enough from the West Coast to leave a gap of steady NW winds that are going to crank down the coast of California. These winds will generate a bunch of steep windswell…so steep that most of it will get blocked by Point Conception…but the winds will be moving in right along with it. Basically we can expect hacked up and sloppy conditions through Wednesday before things start to improve.

By Thursday the high-pressure will shift a bit closer to California and will start to improve our local conditions…check out the pressure chart for Thursday…



Winds will shift offshore for the morning and stay on the light side as beach temps warm up. Unfortunately the shift of the winds will start to kill off the windswell pretty quick but if we are on it in the morning we might be able to pick off some fun ones before it drops off too far.



Further out there are going to be a couple of storms moving into the Gulf of Alaska over the next several days…one moving in later this week and the next one jumping in over the weekend. The current forecast run has these storms tracking mostly across the high-latitudes but with some wind/energy trailing through enough of our WNW-NW swell window to send us some more surf. Look for another round of chest-head high WNW-NW swell (285-300) hitting on Sunday/Monday (March 14-15). This will be followed by another shot of slightly bigger WNW-NW swell (280-300) for Wednesday/Thursday (March 17-18).

Waaaaaay out there is still some more activity swirling around on the end of the forecast run…hopefully this will pan out into some new swell for around the 20-21st…don’t bet the farm on this one it still has a lot of time before it actually develops.

South Pacific
The SPAC continues to heat up…but it still isn’t showing anything all that impressive. Right now we can expect a mix of SSW-SW swells (190-220) that will filter through over the next few days with some inconsistent surf in the knee-waist high range for most SW exposed spots and some chest high sets at the standouts. By Thursday the shot of SW energy will pulse up a little more pushing average spots more into the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high waves at the standouts. These sizes with stick around into the weekend but then trail off a bit by early next week.



Further out there is a better storm pulling together right now in SPAC that will be sending swell for next week…this one looks a little better than the last few storms…with a more defined fetch that makes the south-to-north movement that we need to get a bit more energy from the storm. This new round of S-SSW swell (180-210) begins moving in on Tuesday (march 16) but looks like it will peak more Wednesday/Thursday (March 17-18). This one won’t be huge but I do expect some waist-chest high+ sets at the average spots and some shoulder high+ sets at the standout S facing breaks.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, March 11th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Monday’s Surf – Clean with a small swell mix

Monday will be rideable but I think that the morning high tides and the small swell mix will keep most spots from having a real surf day.

On Monday we are going to see a mix of WNW-NW windswell, some small SW swell (190-210), and a touch of background NW energy (295-300+).



Most of the average exposed spots are going to hold around knee high through the morning high tide but may see some knee-waist high sets once things start to drain out. The top NW facing breaks and the good combo spots are going to be more in the knee-waist high range through the high tide but with a few chest high sets sneaking in as we head towards a lower tide in the afternoon.

Winds look good for Monday…mostly light and variable to light/moderate offshore for the morning (showing the strongest offshore flow up toward SB/Ventura/LA). Then variable onshore winds, mostly out of the W, around 8-12 knots for the afternoon.



Your best bet is going to be the combo beach breaks that have more NW exposure, mostly those through Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego…of course it would be best if they could power through the 6’+ high tide that hits right in the middle of the morning…but if they can’t the winds should stay OK enough to still get a semi-clean session once the tide starts to fade out. Overall I think you are going to want to stick with the small wave gear…but you might be able to get away with some fishier shapes at the top spots.

Here are the tides…

11/16/2009 Mon
01:37AM LST 1.9 L
07:46AM LST 6.3 H
03:07PM LST -0.8 L
09:24PM LST 3.8 H

Links for the regional forecasts…

Santa Barbara - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/

Waves for the weekend – Sloppy Saturday but cleaning up Sunday

Overall it won’t be a great weekend surfwise…Saturday looks pretty sloppy most of the day as the onshore winds continue to hamper shape/conditions. Sunday, however, looks bit cleaner as winds go offshore…hopefully there will be enough windswell hanging around to make it worth getting wet.

Swellwise on Saturday we can expect a mix of holding WNW-NW windswell and some background SW swell (200-220). The windswell will peak through the morning and then rebuild again in the afternoon as the winds get going.



For the surf on Saturday, expect the average spots to hold around knee-waist high…since the majority of the windswell energy will just be skipping past breaks that don’t have excellent NW exposure. Those top NW facing spots, mostly through San Diego, but up in parts of Ventura and the South Bay as well, will be in the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high+ sets sneaking through at times. Shape does not look very good thanks to those winds…but there may be a short early morning window where the bump isn’t so bad…don’t drive very far to check it, but if you live close you might at least give the cameras a quick run through in the early morning.

Winds on Saturday will be a bit of a mixed bag in the morning. NW flow will continue to push into Santa Barbara/Ventura early in the day…while LA/OC/SD all see more light/variable flow for the morning. Nothing looks really clean but like I said there may be a few pockets of surf hiding out through the early morning. NW winds 10-20 knots will blow through the area by the afternoon.



Sunday the WNW-NW windswell will be fading pretty fast while the weak SW’er continues to limp into the best exposed spots.



Sunday the windswell will be fading fast as those winds turn offshore and start to knock it down…but it looks like we will hang onto a few waves for the morning. Look for more knee-waist high surf at the average exposed spots. The standout NW facing breaks, again in those best SD/VEN/South Bay areas, will be in the waist-chest high range with some rare plus sets early in the day…but expect the bigger sets to fade out by the afternoon.

The offshore flow for Sunday is starting to back down its intensity a bit in the forecast…still I am expecting light-moderate offshore flow for the morning with the stronger gusts holding around the passes and canyons in Northern LA and Ventura Counties. Look for clean morning surf and then building NW winds 10-15 knots moving back in by the afternoon.



So…the surf won’t be great this weekend…but it won’t be flat either, just sort of sucky. I definitely wouldn’t spend a lot of time/money/gas driving around looking for waves, but if you are just a short drive from the beach you might want to at least give the cams a quick morning check, or stage a drive-by on the way to get some donuts…(particularly on Sunday)…you might be able to find a little peak worth getting wet for.

Here are the tides…

11/14/2009 Sat
12:30AM LST 1.2 L
06:44AM LST 6.1 H
01:47PM LST -0.4 L
07:50PM LST 4.0 H

11/15/2009 Sun
01:05AM LST 1.6 L
07:15AM LST 6.3 H
02:28PM LST -0.7 L
08:38PM LST 3.9 H

Links for the regional forecasts…

Santa Barbara - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/

Waves for the Weekend – Playful weekend surf

Saturday and Sunday are both looking like surf days.

While it won’t be firing or anything it does look like we are going to have a couple of days of playful sizes swell, lighter morning winds, and decent tidal conditions early in the day. Afternoon winds will be a bit funky but if you can get on it early you should be able to have some fun.

Saturday we are going to see a mix of peaking S-SW swell (180-200) from the southern hemi, overlapping tropical S-SW energy (180-200) from TS Enrique and Hurricane Felicia, and some background NW windswell.

On Sunday the southern hemi swell will drop slowly while the small tropical swell continues to push through at exposed areas at least through the morning. NW windswell will remain steady in the background as well.

Check out the sideways CDIP forecast...it isn’t super helpful but you can see some of the shadowed areas affected by the nearshore islands.



Over the weekend we can expect the average spots to hold in the waist-chest high range. Better S facing breaks will be more consistently in the chest high range. Standout S facing breaks will be chest-shoulder high with maybe a couple of rare bigger sets on the morning tide push.

Winds look ok this weekend as well...there is a slight eddy to the morning flow...so OC and San Diego areas may have some weak southerly texture to them, depends a bit on how the eddy center positions itself. It does look like there will be a window close to dawn (or at least the first couple hours after sunrise). Afternoon winds look breezy...mostly W around 10-12 knots with gusts to 15 knots.

Saturday Winds


Sunday Winds


Water looks pretty chilly in most spots...expect low 60’s for most areas, and even colder in other spots. Hopefully the S swell and slight eddy will push a little more warm water in over the next couple of days. Make sure to throw the wetsuit in the car or you might freeze your nibblets off.

Like I said...it will just be playful and surfable but nothing to really write home about. Your best bet is to stick with spots that have good S facing exposure, which will be most of Orange County, Northern San Diego, and parts of Northern Los Angeles. I think you should be able to get away with riding your higher-performance board this weekend...especially if it works good on smaller/faster waves...there will be enough size and consistency at the well exposed spots to get out and smack a lip or two.

Here are the tides...have a great one!

Saturday
05:17AM LDT 0.2 L
11:29AM LDT 4.4 H
05:11PM LDT 1.7 L
10:57PM LDT 4.9 H

Sunday
05:40AM LDT 0.5 L
11:55AM LDT 4.6 H
05:54PM LDT 1.6 L
11:34PM LDT 4.4 H