Waves for the Weekend – Playful weekend surf

Saturday and Sunday are both looking like surf days.

While it won’t be firing or anything it does look like we are going to have a couple of days of playful sizes swell, lighter morning winds, and decent tidal conditions early in the day. Afternoon winds will be a bit funky but if you can get on it early you should be able to have some fun.

Saturday we are going to see a mix of peaking S-SW swell (180-200) from the southern hemi, overlapping tropical S-SW energy (180-200) from TS Enrique and Hurricane Felicia, and some background NW windswell.

On Sunday the southern hemi swell will drop slowly while the small tropical swell continues to push through at exposed areas at least through the morning. NW windswell will remain steady in the background as well.

Check out the sideways CDIP forecast...it isn’t super helpful but you can see some of the shadowed areas affected by the nearshore islands.



Over the weekend we can expect the average spots to hold in the waist-chest high range. Better S facing breaks will be more consistently in the chest high range. Standout S facing breaks will be chest-shoulder high with maybe a couple of rare bigger sets on the morning tide push.

Winds look ok this weekend as well...there is a slight eddy to the morning flow...so OC and San Diego areas may have some weak southerly texture to them, depends a bit on how the eddy center positions itself. It does look like there will be a window close to dawn (or at least the first couple hours after sunrise). Afternoon winds look breezy...mostly W around 10-12 knots with gusts to 15 knots.

Saturday Winds


Sunday Winds


Water looks pretty chilly in most spots...expect low 60’s for most areas, and even colder in other spots. Hopefully the S swell and slight eddy will push a little more warm water in over the next couple of days. Make sure to throw the wetsuit in the car or you might freeze your nibblets off.

Like I said...it will just be playful and surfable but nothing to really write home about. Your best bet is to stick with spots that have good S facing exposure, which will be most of Orange County, Northern San Diego, and parts of Northern Los Angeles. I think you should be able to get away with riding your higher-performance board this weekend...especially if it works good on smaller/faster waves...there will be enough size and consistency at the well exposed spots to get out and smack a lip or two.

Here are the tides...have a great one!

Saturday
05:17AM LDT 0.2 L
11:29AM LDT 4.4 H
05:11PM LDT 1.7 L
10:57PM LDT 4.9 H

Sunday
05:40AM LDT 0.5 L
11:55AM LDT 4.6 H
05:54PM LDT 1.6 L
11:34PM LDT 4.4 H

Random Swell Update: New swell mix showing this morning

Some of the S facing spots are seeing some playful waves this morning...the mix of S-SW swell (180-200) and some tropical SSW swell (180-190) from TS Enrique is blending together pretty well. It was also nice of Mother Nature to chill out the winds this morning.

Check out the CDIP and the S-facing buoys...




Anyway looks like a lot of waist-chest peaks at the s-facing spots now that the tide is filling in. A few of the best S facing spots, mostly through Orange County, are already seeing some inconsistent shoulder high sets. I don’t think it is going to get a ton bigger...but the Southern Hemi swell will add some more energy as we move throughout the day.

If you get a chance you might to get out and ride a few before the tide gets too high.

Surf for Friday – Sometimes I hate you wind

Friday should be a surf day...but a weird cold front is forecast to move through the area tonight and may tweak the morning winds.

Swellwise we are going to be doing alright...we have a mix of building S-SW swell (180-200), some NW windswell, and increasing (but still small) S-SW tropical energy from TS Enrique. Nothing huge overall but with enough shift in swell direction, compared to the primarily 215-200 we had earlier this week, to make the surf seem both bigger and more consistent.



On Friday the average surf spots will see a little increase...slowly at first...but building throughout the day. Look for mostly knee-waist high+ surf with some chest high sets at the average spots. The better exposed S-SW facing breaks will be more consistently in the waist-chest high range while the standout S-SW facing spots and good combo breaks, mostly through Orange County and parts of San Diego, will have some inconsistent (at first) shoulder high sets. Look for more consistency throughout the afternoon.

Winds are where it gets funky again. I mentioned that we have a cold front (a dry cold front) moving through the region tonight that has some WNW-W winds that will follow the trough. Like the winter, the models can only give a rough estimate of when the front will actually pass through the area and the high-pressure starts to ridge in as it clears. If it moves through fast we could have cleaner winds in the morning. If it stalls out we could be looking at steady W winds around 10-12 knots, which would suck. At this point it is sort of 50/50 for the dawn patrol. The afternoon looks breezy no matter what thanks to higher inland temps spinning up the usual summer sea-breezes. Check out the front on the NWS Charts...



And now look at the COAMPS...it thinks that a mild eddy may form tomorrow.



Your best bet, because of the winds, is to give the computer (or the flags outside if you live semi-close to the coast) a good going-over in the morning. You won’t want to waste a lot of gas checking spots if you see that the wind is still up...but if conditions look calm then it might be worth further investigation.

Here are the tides...watch out for the negative low in the morning.

04:54AM LDT -0.1 L
11:05AM LDT 4.3 H
04:33PM LDT 1.7 L
10:25PM LDT 5.3 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 8/06/2009

Forecast Overview
New S-SW swell (180-200) fills in on Friday, peaks Saturday and then fades slowly as we move into next week. This new Southern hemi swell will mix with increasing NW windswell from building winds in the outer waters and small, overlapping, shots of tropical swell from TS Enrique and Hurricane Felicia.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Friday
New SW swell (180-200) starts to fill on Friday, mixing with steady NW windswell, and a bit of tropical SSW swell (200-220) from Enrique and Felicia. Wave heights will start to come up in the morning with more consistency starting to show on the sets. In the morning we can expect more knee-waist high+ surf at the average spots, better S-SW facing spots will be around waist-chest high, and the standout breaks will be more consistently in the chest high range. Look for the swell to flesh out a bit more by the afternoon and start driving in some shoulder high sets at the standouts. Shape is looking a bit suspect thanks to weird winds, but it will be nice to have a little more energy in the water. Winds/Weather: A dry cold front is expected to move through the area late Thursday night and will sort of jack up the winds through the morning. A lot will depend on how fast the front moves through the area...but right now the models are about 50/50...either we are going to see some onshore bump out of the W around 5-10 knots in the morning, or the winds are going to lay down and be light/variable onshore.

Saturday
The S-SW swell (180-200) will peak on Saturday as it mixes with more NW windswell, and peaking tropical SW swell. Most spots will move into the waist-chest high range while the standout S facing breaks, particular the top S-SW breaks that can combo up the mix of swells, will be around shoulder high on the sets. Winds/Weather: Cleaner winds on tap for the morning...slightly eddish...but mostly light and variable through the dawn patrol. WNW winds 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon.

Sunday
The mix of SW swells (both S.hemi and tropical) will back down while NW windswell continues to work its way in from the outer waters. Most spots will hold in the waist-chest high range. Standout spots will still see some chest-shoulder high sets through the morning...but look for dropping size and consistency by the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds through the morning will turn westerly and build into the 10-14 knot range by the afternoon.

Long-Range

North Pacific
Still no significant storm systems in the North Pacific. Locally we get a dry cold front moving down the coast building up the outer-water NW windswell. The windswell holds into the weekend and fades as we hit early next week.

South Pacific
A better aimed S-SW swell (180-200) moves in on Friday and holds into Saturday before fading slowly into early next week. Small reinforcements will arrive as that swell is fading to help wave heights from dropping to fast.



Long-range charts are bit quiet...a new high-pressure ridge is dominating most of the mid-latitudes of the SPAC and forcing the storm track in a more zonal pattern. At this point it doesn’t look like we are going to see any significant Southern Hemi swells after the small pulse fades next week. Hopefully this trend won’t last long.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Since the last forecast we had TD-07 turn into TS Enrique, and Hurricane Felicia develop...both of which are making for a very active tropical region.



Unfortunately while both storms are in our swell window neither one is looking like a quality swell maker. I do expect a few waves from both systems (Felicia looks better than my previous tropical update...posted here)...but neither pulse of tropical swell look very big. We already have a bit of tropical activity starting to show on the buoys from Enrique this afternoon (Thursday)...this will peak into Friday and then fade out slowly over the weekend. As it fades new energy from Hurricane Felicia will start to push in out of the SW and will likely peak later Saturday/early Sunday. At this point both swells look to be around waist-chest high...if we get really lucky there may be more size from Felicia but due to her distance from Socal and westward movement I don’t think it is very likely.

Thursday’s Surf – Weak with some bump

Thursday will not be a surf day.

We are going to have a mix of fading, almost leftover, SW swell (200-220), some steady NW windswell, and some background tropical S swell (175-180) from TS Enrique. I know that it sounds like a lot of swell when you lay it out like that...but none of it will really get a chance to mix together, spots that are exposed to one swell will generally not be exposed to the others, which will make for weak, gutless waves everywhere.


Expect it to be like this...only smaller.

Average exposed areas will see surf in the ankle-waist high range. Standout SW facing spots, mostly through South OC and North San Diego, will have more consistent knee-waist high waves with a rare chest high set on the morning tide push.

Winds don’t give us much of a break tomorrow either. Generalized onshore flow will continue to push in from midmorning on. We might see a small window around dawn...with lighter variable winds at sun-up...but even then we can expect a little bit of bump at the more exposed beaches. Look for W winds around 10-12 knots by lunchtime with gusts to 15 knots by the afternoon. The extra onshore wind has been jerking around the waters temps as well...so plan on bringing a few outfits...trunks if you are lucky and fullsuits if the upwelling gets to your spot. Stupid wind.



Personally I am not very excited about the surf tomorrow...weak gutless waves, with bump on them, sound particularly frustrating for some reason this afternoon. If you have to surf tomorrow I would plan on bringing your small wave boards...something to help you power through the mush. Also try and get on it early with the lower tide and slightly cleaner conditions.

Here are the tides...

04:30AM LDT -0.3 L
10:42AM LDT 4.1 H
03:58PM LDT 1.8 L
09:54PM LDT 5.6 H