Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/07/2010

Forecast Overview
Overlapping S-SW swells and June Gloom will be the most dominant features over the next few days…fortunately while we do have some S winds they won’t be super strong until later in the week. (Cross your fingers that the eddy flow will drive in some warmer water). The S-SW swells will back down a touch on Thursday and Friday…but WNW-NW windswell will move in to replace the dropping SPAC swell. More Southern hemi swell will move in again over the weekend (and early next week).

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (more S-SW swell and NW windswell along with some eddy for flavor)
S-SW swell (180-210) will continue to peak on Tuesday…holding in part to a new S-SW pulse that moves in to reinforce the first swell. NW windswell will also continue to hold in the background. Most S-SW facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout S-SW facing spots, mostly through South OC and San Diego, will be in the chest-head high range with some occasionally bigger sets mixing in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The eddy spins up again on Tuesday and we see full June gloom continue. Look for variable onshore flow, mostly out of the S-SW for OC and SD, and more W-NW for LA and Ventura. Winds should be below 5 knots for the morning but will have enough speed to crumble things up at exposed spots. W-WNW winds 10-14 knots will be on tap for the afternoon.



Wednesday – (June gloom and more So Hemi swell)
More S-SSW swell (180-200) arrives to mix with the S-SW swell (180-210) and the background NW windswell. Most S facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high+ range with some overhead sets showing at the standout S-SW breaks. Winds/Weather: The overcast skies and light S-SW winds will continue for most areas on Wednesday. Look for onshore crumble/texture at the more exposed spots but with winds in the 5-6 knot range. W-WNW winds around 10-14 knots will push in later in the afternoon.



Thursday – (Sloppy)
The S-SW swell (180-210) will start to wind down on Thursday while the NW windswell will start to increase. Most S-SW facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range on the sets, while the standout breaks see shoulder-head high+ sets through the morning…and progressively smaller/less consistent surf by the afternoon. The standout NW windswell spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range by the end of the day…with some of the South SD spots hitting head high as the swell begins to peak in the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Thursday looks a bit sloppy thanks to increasing eddy winds along the coast and strong NW winds hitting along the outer waters. Look for S-SW flow around 6-8+ knots for the morning and then W-WNW winds around 12-15+ knots for the afternoon.



Friday – (Cleaning up…well sort of)
Windswell switches more WNW-NW (285-300) and continues to hold onto some lumpy size on Friday while the S-SW swell mix fades to mostly leftover in the background. Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range while the better NW facing spots and excellent combo breaks see some shoulder-head high+ sets. Shape will be a bit mixed up since the windswell is pretty short-period (6-10 seconds) and the Southern Hemi swell stays pretty small. Winds/Weather: The eddy is supposed to blow itself out on Friday…lightening up the morning winds into the 0-5 knot range, but keeping a southerly tint to it. Afternoon winds shift to the W-WNW and stay in the 10-15 knot range for most of the second half of the day.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Still a few storms spinning around in the NPAC but nothing that looks all that exciting for Southern California. There is one system that bears watching over the next few days…this storm tracks across the mid-latitudes fairly rapidly and eventually impacts the central Coast of California around Thursday.



The current forecast has this storm moving too fast to do much swell production before arriving along the west coast…but it does show that it enhances the WNW-NW winds moving down the coast as it arrives…which will be what drives up our local windswell during the second half of the week. The larger windswell waves only really last for Thursday night and into early Friday before fading into this coming weekend. Not much on tap after that…just background local windswell for most of next week.

South Pacific
The current run of S-SW swells will hold for the rest of this week and on into the upcoming weekend…but I am starting to see a bit of a gap in the SPAC storm track that could mean smaller surf as we head past the middle of June…fortunately that gap doesn’t seem very big…long-range charts are showing more stormy action brewing up in the SW portion of our swell window in about 6-7 days.



Look for a mix of closely packed S-SW swells to arrive throughout the week…hitting on the 8-9th…the 11-12th and again on the 13th. None of these look super strong, but since they are all piling on top of one another they will be able to blend some of the energy together, producing more consistent, and sometimes larger sets. Most of this week we can expect chest-shoulder high surf at the average S-SW facing spots and consistent head high sets and occasionally overhead waves at the standout breaks.



Further out…as you can see above there is a noticeable gap (right around 120w-170w in longitude) in the bright red meatballs of SPAC storms. There is still some activity brewing up for Central America and Mainland Mexico (and South America) but there aren’t any storms in the sweet spot for Southern California…fortunately that new red over by New Zealand is going to push over and intensify after it moves out into the wider open ocean…so the wave machine will probably kick back into gear around the end of June…possibly the 19-20th if this lines up properly. Obviously this still a few days from forming...so we will have to wait and see how it breaks loose.

Tropics
No new tropical systems expected for the next couple of days.



the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, June 10th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Surf for Friday – holding S-SW swell with a side of NW windswell

Friday looks like another surfable day…but again the light eddy flow will be out there adding some texture and crumble to the more wind sensitive spots.

The first S-SW swell (190-210) will fade on Friday but another similar sized pulse will move up out the Southern Hemi to help reinforce the fading surf. Overall it looks like surf sizes will be similar to Thursday but it may be a little more consistent thanks to the newer energy in the water. NW windswell will continue to hang around the background.



Average exposed areas will be in the waist high range with less consistent chest high sets. Standout breaks see some chest-shoulder high surf with a few potential bigger waves showing at the excellent combo/SW facing breaks.

Winds will continue to be a bit weird on Friday…not really an eddy…but not totally clean either. The main driver of the winds will be an upper-level high-pressure that is strengthening over the region but since the high is pushing in NW flow the eddy is trying to form along the ocean surface. The result is that these two features are trying to cancel each other out…and we are getting these semi-textured conditions. Basically we can expect light/variable-onshore winds for the morning, with speeds hanging 5-knots or less for most areas. Onshore flow picks up around mid-morning/lunch and then we see W-WSW winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.







So overall it is still looking rideable/playful on Friday but not 100% clean. I think that the morning is going to be your best bet again…since the winds will be lightest around 6-8am...but you might be able to extend the surf window if you stick with spots that have some wind protection or something that can groom out the bump. You will probably want to stick with boards that work in smaller surf so you can squeeze more out of the smaller sets…since the bigger waves might be a bit inconsistent at times.

Here are the tides…

06/04/2010 Friday
02:25AM LDT 3.5 H
09:37AM LDT 1.0 L
04:42PM LDT 4.0 H
11:08PM LDT 2.2 L

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/03/2010

Forecast Overview

Not many changes from the last long-range forecast…but there are a few new storms starting to form out the back. For the next few days we can expect some sporadic eddy winds that will hamper conditions as we move into the weekend…fortunately it looks like there will also be some periods of clean (or at least manageable) conditions mixing in as well. S-SW swell will continue to pulse through Socal while a mix of WNW-NW short/semi-short period swell crosses things up in the background, which means that we will be able to find some playful rideable waves when the wind manages to behave. A mix of new NPAC swell and some more Southern Hemi will arrive later in the upcoming weekend and then build as we head into next week.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (Playful with a touch of texture)
Not many changes on Friday…S-SW swell will hold as the second pulse fills in a touch more and the first pulse fades out. The NW windswell will continue to hold in the background and keep a few surfable waves showing at the best windswell breaks. Average exposed areas will be in the waist high range with less consistent chest high sets. Standout breaks see some chest-shoulder high surf with a few potential bigger waves showing at the excellent combo/SW facing breaks. Winds/Weather: Mostly light winds in the morning…still a touch of eddy circulation but below the 5-knot range. S winds show down in San Diego while the other areas see mostly light/variable winds or even light offshore (like in LA county). Look for W winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.



Saturday – (Warming beach temps and leftover swell)
The surf fades slightly on Saturday…the morning starts off with mostly leftover S-SW swell (190-210) and some slightly more energetic NW windswell. Average breaks will be in the knee-waist high range while the standouts start off with a few chest high sets. A new S-SSW swell (180-200) moves in with some long-period forerunners late in the afternoon, but it will likely just be a new blip on the buoys without much energy showing on the beach. Winds/Weather: Surface winds are showing eddy for Saturday morning but it looks light high-pressure aloft will keep them from being too bad. Overall we can expect variable to light SE winds for the morning and then W-WSW winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.



Sunday – (Looks like a surf day as new S-SW swell moves in)
The surf will start to creep up again on Sunday as the new S-SW swell (180-200) fills in and overlaps the leftover SSW-SW swell and the background (but still healthy) WNW-NW energy. Most exposed spots will be in the waist-chest high range with a few chest high+ sets by the afternoon as the new swell gets going. The standout S-SW facing spots will be chest-shoulder high with some less consistent head high sets. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds on tap for the morning…mostly clean conditions with a few areas of light texture if your beach is really sensitive to southerly flow. Look for building W-WSW building into the 12-15+ knot range by the afternoon.



Monday – (S-SW swell peaks and conditions stay nice)
The S-SSW swell (180-200) will start to peak on Monday (holding overnight into Tuesday)…it will mix with some background SW energy and steady local NW windswell. Most exposed spots will be more in the waist-shoulder high range while the standout S-SW facing breaks see some chest-head high surf and a few overhead waves sneaking into the best exposed combo breaks and the excellent S facing spots. Sets may be a little inconsistent but they will be fun when they show. Winds/Weather: Winds are forecast to remain on the light/variable side for the morning with a few areas of light onshore texture at the more exposed beaches. Look for those winds to switch around to the WNW and blow around the 10-15 knot range by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The storm that was looking sort of good on the GOES satellite earlier this week continued to hang around in the Gulf of Alaska for the last few days. Unfortunately, despite its look on the visible satellites, the storm never produced much wind. Check it out…here is the “visible” look…it is decent looking system, all sorts of convection occurring around the center of the low and a big trailing tail that seems like it should be loading up some fetch for the winter spots.



This is how the ASCAT satellite looked at the same system…



As you can see the winds are not impressive…25-30 knots may set up some smaller windswell, or something a little bigger if it sat in place for 6-7 days…but this one moves fast enough that the low wind speeds will really hurt swell production. I am still expecting some short-period WNW-NW energy moving into Socal for late this weekend and the early part of next week…but the size is going to be pretty small, right around the waist high+ range at the top spots. There will be an increase in local windswell that will ride in on top of this swell that will help to drive up the surf at the WNW-NW facing spots and good combo breaks, but don’t count on any sort of sizeable surf from this side of the ocean.

South Pacific
We will have a playful mix of overlapping S-SW swells that will hold into Friday and continue through the weekend.

Next week looks a bit bigger thanks to a strong storm is just off the coast of Chile that roared through Socal’s S-swell swell window earlier in the week. Unfortunately the storm was moving pretty fast and the extra-tropical energy actually jumped up to the higher latitudes, rather than having the cold part of the storm track push down to the mid-latitudes. This means that strongest part of the storm was at best moving in a zonal track (west to east) or worse, moving away from us. Still the storm was pretty intense and the ass of the system was strung all around Antarctica which means that it did have some fetch aimed our way. Based on that it means that we will have new S-SW swell heading our way for the 7-9th…likely in the shoulder-head high range but possibly a touch bigger on inconsistent sets.



Further out there is even more zonal looking activity in the South Pacific for the next few days…but over the upcoming weekend this storm will start to form.



On the negative side this storm is still moving more west-to-east than I like…and a lot of the frontal edge of the low is traveling pretty fast, almost outrunning the swell that it is producing. On the positive side it does kick the crap out of the mid-latitude high-pressure and open the gap for some following cold fronts to set up some better looking fetch in our swell window. If it lives up to forecasts we would see some new chest-head high S-SW swell (190-220) that would arrive around the 15th.

Even Further out the long-range charts continue to be really active…and it looks like the surf is going to pick up again around the middle/end of June. Look at this new system that forms in about 4-5 days…



If this one pulls together we would be looking at some chest-head high+ surf for the standouts around June 18th but with the peak of the swell lining up more for the 19-20th.

One thing to note…as the winter mid-latitude pressure starts to build in the Southern Hemi we will see more “zonal” flow, but with some pockets of fetchy goodness as well. This zonal pattern generally forces more of our surf to come out of the SW, and through the South Pacific Island Shadow South Pacific Island Shadow which chews up the energy heading to Socal…making the swells both smaller and less consistent than they would be if they had a clearer, more southerly shot at the swell window.



Tropics
No new tropical systems expected for the next couple of days.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, June 7th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/01/2010

Forecast Overview

On and off eddy winds will hamper conditions over the next few days…but there will be some building/holding S-SW swell that we will be able to take advantage of when the wind manages to behave. A mix of new NPAC swell and some more Southern Hemi lining up for later in the upcoming weekend and on into next week.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Wednesday – (Eddy winds and holding S-SW swell)
We will have a mix of holding S-SW swell (190-210), increasing NW windswell, and touch of medium period WNW-NW swell (285-300). Overall shape doesn’t look that great…but spots with some protection from the S winds (yet still open to the S-SW swell mix) will be manageable for the dawn patrol…if the tide doesn’t drain out all the surf. Most spots will be in waist high range with some chest high sets showing at the better SW facing breaks. The standout S-SW facing spots and excellent combo breaks will be in the chest-shoulder high range with a couple of bigger sets showing on the tide push. Winds/Weather: The eddy circulation holds on Wednesday…sort of variable S-SE for SD and Orange County in the morning…and more N-NNW’erly for the passes and canyons in Ventura and Los Angeles…with increasing NW winds as you get closer to Point Conception. W-SW winds build into the 10-15 knot range by the afternoon.



Thursday – (steady S-SW swell…cleaner morning conditions)
The S-SW swell will hold on Thursday…thanks to a second pulse of S-SW energy that moves in throughout the day and helps to prop up wave heights. NW windswell will continue to cross things up at the well exposed spots. Look for more waist-chest high surf at the average S-SW facing spots. Standout SW facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets showing on the tide push. Keep an eye on the tides, they aren’t huge swings…but the midmorning low tide could drain things out. Winds/Weather: Cleaner morning conditions showing for most of Socal on Thursday. Look for light/variable to light offshore winds from Santa Barbara on down through Orange County. South OC and San Diego will have a bit more S-SE flow for the morning…but mostly below 5 knots so it should stay manageable.10-15 knot W-WSW winds will return in the afternoon.



Friday – (rinse and repeat)
Not many changes on Friday…S-SW swell will hold as the second pulse fills in a touch more and the first pulse fades out. The NW windswell will continue to hold in the background and keep a few surfable waves showing at the best windswell breaks. Average exposed areas will be in the waist high range with less consistent chest high sets. Standout breaks see some chest-shoulder high surf. Winds/Weather: Mostly light winds in the morning…still a touch of eddy circulation but below the 5-knot range. S winds show down in San Diego while the other areas see mostly light/variable winds or even light offshore (like in LA county). Look for W winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.



Saturday – (Sir Edward returns)
The surf fades slightly on Saturday…the morning starts off with mostly leftover S-SW swell (190-210) and some slightly more energetic NW windswell. Average breaks will be in the knee-waist high range while the standouts start off with a few chest high sets. A new S-SSW swell (180-200) moves in with some long-period forerunners late in the afternoon, but it will likely just be a new blip on the buoys without much energy showing on the beach. Look for this swell to fill in more Sunday and eventually start to peak as we head into early next week. Winds/Weather: The eddy returns on Saturday…not super intense…but enough to show some defined circulation around Catalina. Winds will be a bit southerly for San Diego and Orange County with more variable to slightly NW flow from Santa Barbara down through Los Angeles.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The satellites are showing a pretty decent storm out in the North Pacific this afternoon…



It may actually seem a little more impressive than it actually is when you look at it through the visible GOES images. The WINDsat and ASCAT satellites are showing 30-25 knots of wind at best…but they be pulling data from a satellite pass that went by before the storm kicked it up a couple of notches…we will have to watch this one tomorrow and see if there is a change.

At this point…this storm is actually supposed to be followed by another front that forms with some extra-tropical energy that jumps into the storm track over by Japan. If this turns out to be the case we will see some new WNW-NW swell (285-300) that arrives with some medium/short-period energy around the 5th…but really peaking more the 6-7th. It doesn’t look like much more than chest-shoulder high right now…but if the winds come in stronger we will have to add some size.

South Pacific
Still a lot of activity down in the South Pacific…a strong storm is just off the coast of Chile having roared through Socal’s S-swell window over the last couple of days. Unfortunately the storm was moving pretty fast and the extra-tropcial energy actually jumped up to the higher latitudes, rather than having the cold part of the storm track push down to the mid-latitudes. This means that strongest part of the storm was at best moving in a zonal track (west to east) or worse, moving away from us. Still the storm was pretty intense and the ass of the system was strung all around Antarctica which means that it did have some fetch aimed our way. Based on that it means that we will have new S-SW swell heading our way for the 7-9th…likely in the shoulder-head high range but possibly a touch bigger on inconsistent sets.



Further out there is even more zonal looking activity in the South Pacific for the next few days…but over the upcoming weekend this storm will start to form.



On the negative side this storm is still moving more west-to-east than I like…and a lot of the frontal edge of the low is traveling pretty fast, almost outrunning the swell that it is producing. On the positive side it does kick the crap out of the mid-latitude high-pressure and open the gap for some following cold fronts to set up some better looking fetch in our swell window. If it lives up to forecasts we would see some new chest-head high S-SW swell (190-220) that would arrive around the 15th.

Tropics
After TS Agatha trashed a lot of Central America it looks like the tropics have quieted down a touch. The NHC was watching a couple of bigger thunderstorms that had some slight spin forming to their surface winds but they both fell apart this afternoon and aren’t likely to reorganize any time soon…so no new tropical systems expected for the next couple of days.



the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, June 3rd, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Surf for Friday – Sometimes I hate you wind

Friday should be a surf day...but a weird cold front is forecast to move through the area tonight and may tweak the morning winds.

Swellwise we are going to be doing alright...we have a mix of building S-SW swell (180-200), some NW windswell, and increasing (but still small) S-SW tropical energy from TS Enrique. Nothing huge overall but with enough shift in swell direction, compared to the primarily 215-200 we had earlier this week, to make the surf seem both bigger and more consistent.



On Friday the average surf spots will see a little increase...slowly at first...but building throughout the day. Look for mostly knee-waist high+ surf with some chest high sets at the average spots. The better exposed S-SW facing breaks will be more consistently in the waist-chest high range while the standout S-SW facing spots and good combo breaks, mostly through Orange County and parts of San Diego, will have some inconsistent (at first) shoulder high sets. Look for more consistency throughout the afternoon.

Winds are where it gets funky again. I mentioned that we have a cold front (a dry cold front) moving through the region tonight that has some WNW-W winds that will follow the trough. Like the winter, the models can only give a rough estimate of when the front will actually pass through the area and the high-pressure starts to ridge in as it clears. If it moves through fast we could have cleaner winds in the morning. If it stalls out we could be looking at steady W winds around 10-12 knots, which would suck. At this point it is sort of 50/50 for the dawn patrol. The afternoon looks breezy no matter what thanks to higher inland temps spinning up the usual summer sea-breezes. Check out the front on the NWS Charts...



And now look at the COAMPS...it thinks that a mild eddy may form tomorrow.



Your best bet, because of the winds, is to give the computer (or the flags outside if you live semi-close to the coast) a good going-over in the morning. You won’t want to waste a lot of gas checking spots if you see that the wind is still up...but if conditions look calm then it might be worth further investigation.

Here are the tides...watch out for the negative low in the morning.

04:54AM LDT -0.1 L
11:05AM LDT 4.3 H
04:33PM LDT 1.7 L
10:25PM LDT 5.3 H