Friday’s Surf – Slow start but building through the day

Friday will be a surf day…but don’t expect a ton of waves to show through the morning.

We will have new W-NW swell (275-300) and some new SW swell (200-215+220) that will both start to arrive early Friday morning…it will take several hours for them to fill in and they will have to push past yet another early morning high tide. Wave heights will be on the rise as we move throughout the day and the top WNW-NW facing spots in the Northern Counties (well basically just Ventura) can expect to see more size earlier in the day. Same goes for the SW facing breaks… spots in OC and North SD that like the SW swell direction will also start to see some new, but inconsistent, sets creeping in a little earlier than the other areas.

Morning


Midday


Afternoon


For the morning, look for most breaks to continue to hold around knee-waist high+ with some chest-shoulder high waves pushing through occasionally. Standout breaks, mostly the WNW facing spots in Ventura, will be more in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger head high sets now and then. By the afternoon all spots will be starting to see more consistent chest-shoulder high sets while the WNW standouts and the excellent combo breaks see some chest-head high surf and some inconsistent overhead sets…possibly even a bit bigger if the swell comes in with more energy in the long-periods.

Winds look light in the morning…mostly below 10 knots…sort of variable in direction depending on the county, but still weak enough to keep things at least semi-clean. NW winds around 10-14 knots move in later in the afternoon.



Like I said it looks like Friday will be surf day…though it will be hard to be patient while waiting for the swells to fill in. The winds for some reason seem a little sketchy to me, at least based on the last wind model I looked at…hopefully it will get nice and cold tonight and stomp on the little bit of funkiness that I was seeing. Water quality should be improving as well…we have had a couple of dry days and most spots have lost the tint of chocolately foulness that we had earlier in the week. Drop me some surf reports tomorrow…I like to hear how the swell is filling in.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/12/2010 Friday
01:52AM LST 1.6 L
07:48AM LST 5.4 H
02:51PM LST -0.6 L
09:01PM LST 3.9 H

Swell update – New SW-swell showing the 20’s

The first part of the new SW swell is starting to show this morning.

Our surf isn’t huge by any means for this dawn patrol…there are a few sets starting to sneak through at the well exposed breaks. More waist high waves at the better spots (mostly in South OC, Northern San Diego and Northern LA). Top breaks are seeing chest high+ waves on the mornings tide push.

While it isn’t big yet, it is showing some nice long-period energy on the buoys this morning. Check it out…I always love when a swell shows on time.



Look for this swell to fill in gradually through the day, with the peak of the SW’er hitting over the weekend. New S swell starts to overlap this one starting Sunday night and we can expect bigger surf as we head into next week.

If you need more details make sure to check out my long-range forecast and the swell-alert that I sent out earlier this week.

Long-range Surf Forecast

Swell Alert for the incoming S-SW swells

Friday’s Surf – Building SW swell and a touch of wind

Friday will start off small and inconsistent for most areas…so the early morning won’t be much of a surf day.

However, new SW swell (200-220) will be filling in slowly throughout the day and will help build wave heights as we move into the afternoon. Local NW windswell will also be on the rise but it will be pretty steeply angled (295-300+) and won’t ad much to our surf.




In the morning expect most spots to be in the knee-waist high range, with the sets being fairly inconsistent at times. Standout SW facing spots in San Diego and South Orange County may have rare waist-chest high sets as we move through the early morning low tide.

By the afternoon the SW’er will be starting to get more energy into our exposed spots. The swell will still be pretty SW so don’t expect all of the summer spots to be working…North OC in particular will be shadowed on this part of the swell. By the afternoon/evening we can expect the average spots to start to pull in more consistent waist-chest high sets. Standouts will be more in the chest high range with shoulder high sets becoming more consistent as we head toward sundown.

The winds will be a touch funky tomorrow…the forecast models are calling for some onshore texture from the W-WNW in the morning. Not completely blown out…sort of in the 4-6 knot range for many areas…maybe a touch stronger at the more exposed beaches in SD and OC. The WNW wind is expected to build fast, eventually coming onshore 12-15 knots by the afternoon. This funk is expected to hold around into Saturday but lets cross our fingers that it moves out faster than the models are saying.



So a slow start tomorrow…slow and possibly textured. Personally I would give the surf cams a check before driving very far for a dawn patrol session. I still think that you are going to want to stick to the small-wave or fishy shapes through the morning…but we might be able to start to bust out the normal boards later in the day.

Here are the tides…

04:30AM LDT -0.7 L
10:38AM LDT 5.3 H
04:34PM LDT 0.7 L
10:30PM LDT 5.9 H

Surf for Friday – Sometimes I hate you wind

Friday should be a surf day...but a weird cold front is forecast to move through the area tonight and may tweak the morning winds.

Swellwise we are going to be doing alright...we have a mix of building S-SW swell (180-200), some NW windswell, and increasing (but still small) S-SW tropical energy from TS Enrique. Nothing huge overall but with enough shift in swell direction, compared to the primarily 215-200 we had earlier this week, to make the surf seem both bigger and more consistent.



On Friday the average surf spots will see a little increase...slowly at first...but building throughout the day. Look for mostly knee-waist high+ surf with some chest high sets at the average spots. The better exposed S-SW facing breaks will be more consistently in the waist-chest high range while the standout S-SW facing spots and good combo breaks, mostly through Orange County and parts of San Diego, will have some inconsistent (at first) shoulder high sets. Look for more consistency throughout the afternoon.

Winds are where it gets funky again. I mentioned that we have a cold front (a dry cold front) moving through the region tonight that has some WNW-W winds that will follow the trough. Like the winter, the models can only give a rough estimate of when the front will actually pass through the area and the high-pressure starts to ridge in as it clears. If it moves through fast we could have cleaner winds in the morning. If it stalls out we could be looking at steady W winds around 10-12 knots, which would suck. At this point it is sort of 50/50 for the dawn patrol. The afternoon looks breezy no matter what thanks to higher inland temps spinning up the usual summer sea-breezes. Check out the front on the NWS Charts...



And now look at the COAMPS...it thinks that a mild eddy may form tomorrow.



Your best bet, because of the winds, is to give the computer (or the flags outside if you live semi-close to the coast) a good going-over in the morning. You won’t want to waste a lot of gas checking spots if you see that the wind is still up...but if conditions look calm then it might be worth further investigation.

Here are the tides...watch out for the negative low in the morning.

04:54AM LDT -0.1 L
11:05AM LDT 4.3 H
04:33PM LDT 1.7 L
10:25PM LDT 5.3 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 8/06/2009

Forecast Overview
New S-SW swell (180-200) fills in on Friday, peaks Saturday and then fades slowly as we move into next week. This new Southern hemi swell will mix with increasing NW windswell from building winds in the outer waters and small, overlapping, shots of tropical swell from TS Enrique and Hurricane Felicia.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Friday
New SW swell (180-200) starts to fill on Friday, mixing with steady NW windswell, and a bit of tropical SSW swell (200-220) from Enrique and Felicia. Wave heights will start to come up in the morning with more consistency starting to show on the sets. In the morning we can expect more knee-waist high+ surf at the average spots, better S-SW facing spots will be around waist-chest high, and the standout breaks will be more consistently in the chest high range. Look for the swell to flesh out a bit more by the afternoon and start driving in some shoulder high sets at the standouts. Shape is looking a bit suspect thanks to weird winds, but it will be nice to have a little more energy in the water. Winds/Weather: A dry cold front is expected to move through the area late Thursday night and will sort of jack up the winds through the morning. A lot will depend on how fast the front moves through the area...but right now the models are about 50/50...either we are going to see some onshore bump out of the W around 5-10 knots in the morning, or the winds are going to lay down and be light/variable onshore.

Saturday
The S-SW swell (180-200) will peak on Saturday as it mixes with more NW windswell, and peaking tropical SW swell. Most spots will move into the waist-chest high range while the standout S facing breaks, particular the top S-SW breaks that can combo up the mix of swells, will be around shoulder high on the sets. Winds/Weather: Cleaner winds on tap for the morning...slightly eddish...but mostly light and variable through the dawn patrol. WNW winds 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon.

Sunday
The mix of SW swells (both S.hemi and tropical) will back down while NW windswell continues to work its way in from the outer waters. Most spots will hold in the waist-chest high range. Standout spots will still see some chest-shoulder high sets through the morning...but look for dropping size and consistency by the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds through the morning will turn westerly and build into the 10-14 knot range by the afternoon.

Long-Range

North Pacific
Still no significant storm systems in the North Pacific. Locally we get a dry cold front moving down the coast building up the outer-water NW windswell. The windswell holds into the weekend and fades as we hit early next week.

South Pacific
A better aimed S-SW swell (180-200) moves in on Friday and holds into Saturday before fading slowly into early next week. Small reinforcements will arrive as that swell is fading to help wave heights from dropping to fast.



Long-range charts are bit quiet...a new high-pressure ridge is dominating most of the mid-latitudes of the SPAC and forcing the storm track in a more zonal pattern. At this point it doesn’t look like we are going to see any significant Southern Hemi swells after the small pulse fades next week. Hopefully this trend won’t last long.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Since the last forecast we had TD-07 turn into TS Enrique, and Hurricane Felicia develop...both of which are making for a very active tropical region.



Unfortunately while both storms are in our swell window neither one is looking like a quality swell maker. I do expect a few waves from both systems (Felicia looks better than my previous tropical update...posted here)...but neither pulse of tropical swell look very big. We already have a bit of tropical activity starting to show on the buoys from Enrique this afternoon (Thursday)...this will peak into Friday and then fade out slowly over the weekend. As it fades new energy from Hurricane Felicia will start to push in out of the SW and will likely peak later Saturday/early Sunday. At this point both swells look to be around waist-chest high...if we get really lucky there may be more size from Felicia but due to her distance from Socal and westward movement I don’t think it is very likely.

Friday's Surf - More SW swell for tomorrow

Friday will be another surf day. Our new SW swell will start to peak and winds/weather continue to look very nice as things stay hot and sunny and winds remain light.

You can already see the new SW swell hitting the buoys...here is a shot of the Dana Point Buoy. Remember to check the live site for the latest data. http://www.lajollasurf.org/buoylist.html




For the surf tomorrow we can expect this mix of SW swell (190-205), both with leftovers from earlier in the week and the new SW'er, to blend with some increasing energy from the WNW. The WNW'er will definitely be a background swell so look for the biggest waves at the SW facing spots...or good combo breaks.

Sizewise look for the average spots to see surf in the chest-high range. The better SW facing breaks in Ventura and LA will have some chest-shoulder high+ sets coming through. Standout SW facing breaks in Orange County and San Diego will see surf in the shoulder-head high range with some overhead sets mixing in at the top spots.

Winds will be mostly light offshore through the morning for all areas...maybe even some spots with moderate offshore texture. It doesn't look like a full blown Santa Ana or anything but it does look clean and a little chilly for the morning. Afternoon winds do eventually try and switch onshore but stay around 10-knots or so.

Again I managed to get a few waves around lunchtime on Thursday and the local beach breaks, that do really well pulling in SW swell, were mostly walled up. There were a couple of semi-makeable corners but mostly I was seeing sets come through with 5-6 guys taking off one right after another (about 20-yards apart) and everyone getting close out on. Occasionally there would be some heroic barrels before getting worked but I didn't see many people come out of them. So with that in mind I really think that the points/reefs are going to be the call tomorrow...beach breaks are going to be wally...and with some lovely current to paddle against as well.

Here are the tides for Friday.

12:46AM 0.3' Low
07:11AM 5.1' High
01:19PM 1.3' Low
07:00PM 4.8' High

Random Monday Morning Surf Report – Looking fun out there

Just did a quick surf check this morning and it looks pretty fun out there…and by “out there” I mean at almost all of the SW facing spots in SoCal.

The new SW swell is already showing some decent size and it will continue to build through the day (and other similar-larger size chunk of SW swell arrives over the next couple of days).

Winds are light and variable…most spots are clean (with a few pockets of southerly texture at the more exposed ones).

The points and reefs are seeing the best shape…particularly those in South OC, North San Diego, and if you like a smaller wave…in North LA County.

Wave Heights are generally in the chest-high+ range while the standout areas are seeing shoulder-high to overhead sets. It is a bit inconsistent (probably thanks to the morning tide drain)…but look for the consistency and the tide to build as we move throughout the day. If you can try and paddle out around 9am when the tide will start to switch around.

Thursday's Surf - Finally a few clean(er) ones

Thursday is looking more like a surf day...at worst it will be quite a bit better than the mess we had on Wednesday.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of WNW windswell and some slowly building SW swell (190-210). Look for mostly waist high+ surf at the average spots. Standout combo breaks, mostly in San Diego, Southern Ventura County, parts of the South Bay, and South Orange County, see some chest-shoulder high sets on the lower tides.

Winds are forecast to improve...starting off light and variable in the morning and then turning onshore out of the NW around 10-15 knots by the afternoon. I would still plan on a little onshore texture in the morning but in general the wind will be light enough to surf for most spots.

I think that the combo beach breaks (in the areas I mentioned above) will be the best call for surf on Thursday. It won't be great...but it won't be as sucky as Wednesday either...probably somewhere in-between. The mix of swell isn't all that great of a combo...the windswell will be dropping and gutless and the SW swell will be inconsistent and a bit finicky as to what beaches will have decent exposure. I would still plan on making a cam check in the morning...and if it looks halfway decent bringing a board/gear that can make the most of smaller (and sort of mushy) surf.

Thursday’s Surf – WTF! Where the heck is the rain!?!

Sorry random rant time: Seriously sometimes, when it comes to rain, I can be the worst meteorologist. I just don’t have the patience to sit around looking at slowly moving radar plots and adjust timing on the approaching fronts. Still it is damn frustrating when you are expecting rain at a certain time and all you see is blue sky. Stupid rain.

Anyway looking at the forecasts, (sigh) and radar, it looks like there will be a bit of rain tonight but it should be mostly gone by early tomorrow. (Though now that I said that you should probably make sure to pack an umbrella for the dawn patrol)

All right enough complaining about the rain…on to the surf.

Thursday will be a surf day after the morning tide drops.

We have new SW swell (195-210) filling in that will start to peak later on Thursday (and into Friday). We will also have a bit of local W windswell.

In the morning most spots will be small and soft, holding mostly in the knee high+ range. The standout high tide spots may be a touch bigger but I wouldn’t expect much.

By the afternoon, as the tide drops, we will see the SW facing spots and good combo breaks build into the waist-chest high range. Standout breaks in South Orange County and Northern San Diego will have some shoulder high+ sets sneaking through.

Winds will be light and variable in the morning and should pick up out of the W-NW around 10-12 knots by the afternoon.

I would sit out the dawn patrol if you can…it will be just too bogged out by the tide. Once it drops you should start seeing a few playful peaks at the better S facing beaches. Beach breaks will probably be your best bet shapewise...but plan on hunting around for a semi-decent sandbar. I will be doing a lunchtime check with my fishy boards once the tide drops.

Thursday’s Surf – Bigger SW swell starts to arrive...yeah for swell.

Thursday will be another good surf day…particularly for the S-SW facing spots and good combo breaks.

New S-SW swell (185-210) will start to arrive with long-period energy (20+ seconds) early Thursday morning and will blend in with the already existing mix of SW and WNW energy. Exposed areas can expect consistent chest-shoulder high+ surf through the morning while the standouts start seeing some head high+ sets as we move past the morning low tide.

Definitely expect bigger and more consistent surf to arrive as we head into the afternoon…and remember that the peak of the swell will actually be arriving on Friday.

About the only thing that I am a little concerned about is that there could be some wind issues on Thursday. Winds are getting strong in the outer waters and there is a chance that they will edge over SoCal tweaking our conditions.

Likely what will happen is that these winds will set up a bit of an eddy that will keep the stronger NW flow from tearing us up…but it does mean that we may have some mild-moderate southerly flow coming through in the morning…particularly for San Diego and Orange County. (LA, Ventura, and Santa Barbara will be more under the influence of the NW flow).

This image is actually the current wind pattern that we are seeing this afternoon (Wednesday around 3pm) but it may stay consistent overnight and into tomorrow morning.



There will still be some decent size differences between regions so I will break them out again so you can plan your session better…

Santa Barbara will continue to be shadowed from this swell mix. Expect more knee-waist high+ surf for the better breaks…and maybe a few chest high+ sets at the absolute best summer breaks.

Ventura pulls in more of the swell but is still on the shadowed side. South County breaks are way more exposed and will pick up more of the WNW energy as well. Most breaks will be around waist-chest high+ but the South County standouts will have shoulder-head high sets as the SW’er gets more established in the afternoon.

LA County will have a lot of fun surf at the exposed areas…northern LA and the north half of the South Bay will be the biggest with chest-shoulder high surf for the average spots and some head high+ sets hitting the standout combo breaks.

Orange County and San Diego County will continue to see the biggest surf. Expect most S facing breaks to be in the shoulder-head high range with sets starting to go overhead on the tide push in the morning and getting more consistently overhead by the evening. I am not sure there will be enough WNW swell to break up the bigger S swell (cross your fingers that the windswell picks up a couple of notches)…so point and reefs may be your best call for shape…remember too that we may have S winds in the morning so look for spots with a little more protection from the wind.

Personally I am locked into surfing North OC tomorrow…so I am hoping extra hard for a little more windswell and a lot less eddy winds in the morning so that the surf will be a bit more peaky at the beach breaks. At this point I am not holding my breath that it will happen…but I am going to do a little wind dance later this evening to see if I can help stack the deck a little bit.

Wednesday’s Surf – More swell and more wind

Wednesday will be a good surf day. Winds may be an issue in the afternoon but we will have plenty of S-SW swell showing at the exposed areas.

Check it out…the initial S-SW swell has already started filling in today. (This will strengthen into Wednesday. Then a second, stronger S-SW’er will fill in late Wednesday and peak Thursday and Friday…yeah S swell for everyone!)

This is a shot from one of the best buoy websites out there (both out of free and paid websites). It is run out of the Scripps group down in San Diego...and you can access the data from this link here http://www.lajollasurf.org/buoylist.html or from the link list on the right hand side of the blog.

On Wednesday we will have a mix of S-SW swell (190-210) and blend of WNW energy. A few spots will get left out of the swell mix so I will break it down by region to be a little clearer.

Santa Barbara’s surf will be pretty shadowed from both of these swells (damn Channel Islands!). Expect most spots to hold in the knee-waist high range while a few of the more exposed areas, near the southern county border, will have some chest high sets.

Ventura is more exposed to the swell mix…expect north county spots, particularly the points, to be smaller mostly knee-chest high. South County breaks will have shoulder high+ sets at the better beach breaks.

LA County will be pretty fun…northern LA and the north half of the South Bay will be in the waist-chest+shoulder high range while a few of the standout breaks see some inconsistent head high sets mixing in…particularly by the afternoon. The South Bay breaks may be a little more consistent and crossed up as it pulls in more of the WNW swell.

Orange and San Diego counties will be the biggest. Expect most S facing breaks to be in the chest-shoulder high range with head high sets. The standout S swell spots and really good combo breaks will be more consistently in the head high range and we can expect a few bigger waves sneaking through as we hit the afternoon.

Winds and weather look OK in the morning. Mostly light and variable to light onshore out of the S as a slight eddy starts to form…it should be surfable most spots but maybe a little lumpy at the most unprotected beaches. The afternoon should be a drag…NW winds 10-20 knots build in quickly through the second half of the day.

Your best bet is going to be to get on it early before the wind starts to tear it up. Head to SD and OC is you are looking for bigger waves…but any S facing spot (that isn’t heavily shadowed) should be pretty fun. Remember not to burn yourself out…there will be more S swell on tap through the rest of the week and the weekend.

Tuesday’s Surf – Slowly building

Tuesday will be a surf day...and if you can get out in the morning is should be pretty fun.

We will have a mix of steady local windswell, and a new building S-SW swell that will fill in as we move throughout the day.

Most spots…the average breaks throughout SoCal…will be in the knee-waist high+ range. Standout spots, mostly in Orange County and San Diego, will have chest-shoulder high sets in the morning with a few bigger waves mixing in around sundown.

We will still have the high tides rolling through most of the day so expect it to be pretty boggy once they have gotten a foothold around lunchtime.

Weather should be ok as well…mostly light and variable winds in the morning with some onshore NW winds pushing through in the afternoon.

The dawn patrol is going to be your best bet on Tuesday…I wish there was going to be more SW swell showing early but since the tide is going to swamp it out we are going to need to get what we can, while we can. Beach breaks will have the best shape and a little more pop to the sets. The points and reefs will be working as well but may not connect as well as usual. Personally I am going to be checking the local beach breaks in the morning and see if I can pick off a few before they re-chain me to this computer.