Tropical Update – Tropical Storm Nora

A tropical disturbance that had been drifting about 600 miles SW of the tip of Baja began to organize late last night and has now strengthened into Tropical Storm Nora.



Currently TS Nora is weak-to-moderate tropical storm with core winds in the 35-40 knot range and gusts getting up around 45-50 knots. She is positioned about 900 miles due south of SoCal...and is moving slowly to the WNW (tracking at 300-degrees) at a slow speed of about 8-knots.





Forecast models are calling for Nora to intensify over the next 24 hours, reaching the “strong” tropical storm level and possibly becoming a hurricane. While this intensification is good news it sounds like it won’t last that long...while the models agree on the intensification they also agree that she will hit cooler water and some upper level wind shear shortly afterwards, which gives her a very short swell-making period. You can see her track taking her into cooler water on the chart below.



The good news is that NORA is already in our swell window and is positioned so that any swell she sends out will be a more “democratic” S swell rather than a shadowed SE swell. It also helps that she is moving slowly and has a slightly more WNW track.

The bad news is that overall she is still a pretty small storm right now...with her Tropical Storm strength winds only reaching out about 40-50 miles...and while that may increase as she strengthens it doesn’t look like it will get all that much bigger.

So after looking at today’s forecasts...I do think that we will get a few waves from Tropical Storm Nora but that they are going to be on the small side. I am looking for the new S swell (170-185) to start moving in with some tropical knee-waist high sets by late Thursday and holding into Friday. There is a chance that it will come in bigger if, and it is a big if, the storm strengthens significantly and holds together longer than the forecast models indicate...but personally I am not holding my breath.

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 8/06/2009

Forecast Overview
New S-SW swell (180-200) fills in on Friday, peaks Saturday and then fades slowly as we move into next week. This new Southern hemi swell will mix with increasing NW windswell from building winds in the outer waters and small, overlapping, shots of tropical swell from TS Enrique and Hurricane Felicia.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Friday
New SW swell (180-200) starts to fill on Friday, mixing with steady NW windswell, and a bit of tropical SSW swell (200-220) from Enrique and Felicia. Wave heights will start to come up in the morning with more consistency starting to show on the sets. In the morning we can expect more knee-waist high+ surf at the average spots, better S-SW facing spots will be around waist-chest high, and the standout breaks will be more consistently in the chest high range. Look for the swell to flesh out a bit more by the afternoon and start driving in some shoulder high sets at the standouts. Shape is looking a bit suspect thanks to weird winds, but it will be nice to have a little more energy in the water. Winds/Weather: A dry cold front is expected to move through the area late Thursday night and will sort of jack up the winds through the morning. A lot will depend on how fast the front moves through the area...but right now the models are about 50/50...either we are going to see some onshore bump out of the W around 5-10 knots in the morning, or the winds are going to lay down and be light/variable onshore.

Saturday
The S-SW swell (180-200) will peak on Saturday as it mixes with more NW windswell, and peaking tropical SW swell. Most spots will move into the waist-chest high range while the standout S facing breaks, particular the top S-SW breaks that can combo up the mix of swells, will be around shoulder high on the sets. Winds/Weather: Cleaner winds on tap for the morning...slightly eddish...but mostly light and variable through the dawn patrol. WNW winds 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon.

Sunday
The mix of SW swells (both S.hemi and tropical) will back down while NW windswell continues to work its way in from the outer waters. Most spots will hold in the waist-chest high range. Standout spots will still see some chest-shoulder high sets through the morning...but look for dropping size and consistency by the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds through the morning will turn westerly and build into the 10-14 knot range by the afternoon.

Long-Range

North Pacific
Still no significant storm systems in the North Pacific. Locally we get a dry cold front moving down the coast building up the outer-water NW windswell. The windswell holds into the weekend and fades as we hit early next week.

South Pacific
A better aimed S-SW swell (180-200) moves in on Friday and holds into Saturday before fading slowly into early next week. Small reinforcements will arrive as that swell is fading to help wave heights from dropping to fast.



Long-range charts are bit quiet...a new high-pressure ridge is dominating most of the mid-latitudes of the SPAC and forcing the storm track in a more zonal pattern. At this point it doesn’t look like we are going to see any significant Southern Hemi swells after the small pulse fades next week. Hopefully this trend won’t last long.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Since the last forecast we had TD-07 turn into TS Enrique, and Hurricane Felicia develop...both of which are making for a very active tropical region.



Unfortunately while both storms are in our swell window neither one is looking like a quality swell maker. I do expect a few waves from both systems (Felicia looks better than my previous tropical update...posted here)...but neither pulse of tropical swell look very big. We already have a bit of tropical activity starting to show on the buoys from Enrique this afternoon (Thursday)...this will peak into Friday and then fade out slowly over the weekend. As it fades new energy from Hurricane Felicia will start to push in out of the SW and will likely peak later Saturday/early Sunday. At this point both swells look to be around waist-chest high...if we get really lucky there may be more size from Felicia but due to her distance from Socal and westward movement I don’t think it is very likely.