Waves for the Weekend – Playful weekend surf

Saturday and Sunday are both looking like surf days.

While it won’t be firing or anything it does look like we are going to have a couple of days of playful sizes swell, lighter morning winds, and decent tidal conditions early in the day. Afternoon winds will be a bit funky but if you can get on it early you should be able to have some fun.

Saturday we are going to see a mix of peaking S-SW swell (180-200) from the southern hemi, overlapping tropical S-SW energy (180-200) from TS Enrique and Hurricane Felicia, and some background NW windswell.

On Sunday the southern hemi swell will drop slowly while the small tropical swell continues to push through at exposed areas at least through the morning. NW windswell will remain steady in the background as well.

Check out the sideways CDIP forecast...it isn’t super helpful but you can see some of the shadowed areas affected by the nearshore islands.



Over the weekend we can expect the average spots to hold in the waist-chest high range. Better S facing breaks will be more consistently in the chest high range. Standout S facing breaks will be chest-shoulder high with maybe a couple of rare bigger sets on the morning tide push.

Winds look ok this weekend as well...there is a slight eddy to the morning flow...so OC and San Diego areas may have some weak southerly texture to them, depends a bit on how the eddy center positions itself. It does look like there will be a window close to dawn (or at least the first couple hours after sunrise). Afternoon winds look breezy...mostly W around 10-12 knots with gusts to 15 knots.

Saturday Winds


Sunday Winds


Water looks pretty chilly in most spots...expect low 60’s for most areas, and even colder in other spots. Hopefully the S swell and slight eddy will push a little more warm water in over the next couple of days. Make sure to throw the wetsuit in the car or you might freeze your nibblets off.

Like I said...it will just be playful and surfable but nothing to really write home about. Your best bet is to stick with spots that have good S facing exposure, which will be most of Orange County, Northern San Diego, and parts of Northern Los Angeles. I think you should be able to get away with riding your higher-performance board this weekend...especially if it works good on smaller/faster waves...there will be enough size and consistency at the well exposed spots to get out and smack a lip or two.

Here are the tides...have a great one!

Saturday
05:17AM LDT 0.2 L
11:29AM LDT 4.4 H
05:11PM LDT 1.7 L
10:57PM LDT 4.9 H

Sunday
05:40AM LDT 0.5 L
11:55AM LDT 4.6 H
05:54PM LDT 1.6 L
11:34PM LDT 4.4 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 8/06/2009

Forecast Overview
New S-SW swell (180-200) fills in on Friday, peaks Saturday and then fades slowly as we move into next week. This new Southern hemi swell will mix with increasing NW windswell from building winds in the outer waters and small, overlapping, shots of tropical swell from TS Enrique and Hurricane Felicia.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Friday
New SW swell (180-200) starts to fill on Friday, mixing with steady NW windswell, and a bit of tropical SSW swell (200-220) from Enrique and Felicia. Wave heights will start to come up in the morning with more consistency starting to show on the sets. In the morning we can expect more knee-waist high+ surf at the average spots, better S-SW facing spots will be around waist-chest high, and the standout breaks will be more consistently in the chest high range. Look for the swell to flesh out a bit more by the afternoon and start driving in some shoulder high sets at the standouts. Shape is looking a bit suspect thanks to weird winds, but it will be nice to have a little more energy in the water. Winds/Weather: A dry cold front is expected to move through the area late Thursday night and will sort of jack up the winds through the morning. A lot will depend on how fast the front moves through the area...but right now the models are about 50/50...either we are going to see some onshore bump out of the W around 5-10 knots in the morning, or the winds are going to lay down and be light/variable onshore.

Saturday
The S-SW swell (180-200) will peak on Saturday as it mixes with more NW windswell, and peaking tropical SW swell. Most spots will move into the waist-chest high range while the standout S facing breaks, particular the top S-SW breaks that can combo up the mix of swells, will be around shoulder high on the sets. Winds/Weather: Cleaner winds on tap for the morning...slightly eddish...but mostly light and variable through the dawn patrol. WNW winds 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon.

Sunday
The mix of SW swells (both S.hemi and tropical) will back down while NW windswell continues to work its way in from the outer waters. Most spots will hold in the waist-chest high range. Standout spots will still see some chest-shoulder high sets through the morning...but look for dropping size and consistency by the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds through the morning will turn westerly and build into the 10-14 knot range by the afternoon.

Long-Range

North Pacific
Still no significant storm systems in the North Pacific. Locally we get a dry cold front moving down the coast building up the outer-water NW windswell. The windswell holds into the weekend and fades as we hit early next week.

South Pacific
A better aimed S-SW swell (180-200) moves in on Friday and holds into Saturday before fading slowly into early next week. Small reinforcements will arrive as that swell is fading to help wave heights from dropping to fast.



Long-range charts are bit quiet...a new high-pressure ridge is dominating most of the mid-latitudes of the SPAC and forcing the storm track in a more zonal pattern. At this point it doesn’t look like we are going to see any significant Southern Hemi swells after the small pulse fades next week. Hopefully this trend won’t last long.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Since the last forecast we had TD-07 turn into TS Enrique, and Hurricane Felicia develop...both of which are making for a very active tropical region.



Unfortunately while both storms are in our swell window neither one is looking like a quality swell maker. I do expect a few waves from both systems (Felicia looks better than my previous tropical update...posted here)...but neither pulse of tropical swell look very big. We already have a bit of tropical activity starting to show on the buoys from Enrique this afternoon (Thursday)...this will peak into Friday and then fade out slowly over the weekend. As it fades new energy from Hurricane Felicia will start to push in out of the SW and will likely peak later Saturday/early Sunday. At this point both swells look to be around waist-chest high...if we get really lucky there may be more size from Felicia but due to her distance from Socal and westward movement I don’t think it is very likely.