Friday’s Surf – S-SW swell and a touch of eddy

Friday looks like a surf day…but it may be hiding in the morning fog in a few areas.

We are going to have a mix of S-SW swell (180-210) that will be starting to peak around midday and some NW energy (290-300) coming from a mix of local windswell and some various background NPAC storms.



Check it out…you can see the new S-SW swell showing on the buoys this evening…



Average breaks will be in the waist-chest high range. The standout S facing spots and the excellent NW/S combo breaks, mostly through Orange County and parts of San Diego, will see surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head+ sets mixing in on the lower tides. Since a lot of the energy will be from the Southern Hemi, expect some long waits between the bigger sets.

Winds and weather look ok for Friday…not great…just sort of ok. We have a coastal eddy forming tonight that is going to set up some light onshore flow for Santa Barbara down through Northern LA County. The eddy is forecast to center around San Clemente Island which would lighten up winds for the southern regions. So at this point it looks like light/variable winds for the South Bay and then staying light on down to San Diego. One bad thing about this eddy is that it is going to cool off the air pretty quick…and as it does there could be some heavy fog (patchy heavy fog) in a few areas. So if you are unlucky enough to get the fog there may be some funky winds around the edges. Look for WSW-W winds around 10-14 knots for the afternoon.



Overall Friday looks like a surf day…but there are a lot of little things that could trip it up. Funky winds, a fat morning tide, inconsistent swell, dolphins, (just to name a few)…if we get the wrong mix it might keep conditions/shape from being all that good. Personally I am going to give the winds/weather a computer check in the morning before hopping in the truck…I am crossing my fingers that the eddy isn’t too strong, and that the fog holds further off the coast.

Here are the tides…

04/09/2010 Friday
01:17AM LDT 1.7 L
06:53AM LDT 4.1 H
01:34PM LDT 0.4 L
07:50PM LDT 4.1 H

Surf for Tuesday – Cleaner but a touch smaller

Tuesday will be a surf day.

In the water we are going to have a mix of fading WNW-NW windswell, some steady S-SSW swell (180-200), and some background SW energy (200-220). With the windswell dropping out pretty fast tomorrow plan on the bigger wave heights to shift around a bit…the purely NW/windswell spots will get quite a bit smaller…and the bigger waves will be showing primarily at the top S-facing spots.



Average S-facing breaks and the OK combo spots will hold in the waist-chest high range on Tuesday. There may be a few chest high+ sets on the early morning low tide. Standout S facing breaks, mostly through Orange County (but in a few other areas as well), will hold in the chest-shoulder high range on the sets, with a few bigger waves showing at times through the early morning.

Winds look good…finally that stupid low is gone (talk about a forecasting headache)...the local conditions are going to normalize a bit, getting back into what we generally expect for the Fall. Look for light and variable conditions for the morning, maybe even a few spots with offshore flow, and then building W-NW winds 10-14 knots on tap by the afternoon.



While it will be a surf day…I am not expecting it to fire or anything tomorrow...the tides and the sort of dropping/shifting swell may not mix well together. I think your best bet will be the early morning session if you can motivate…the tide comes up fast midmorning and hits a nearly 6’ high by 10:15 or so…by the time it drops in the afternoon the onshore bump will have moved back in. I think that it will see be fun at the better combo spots…but if you are looking for the bigger sets you will have to stick to spots that have good southerly swell exposure.

Here are the tides…

04:10AM LDT 1.7 L
10:18AM LDT 5.9 H
05:28PM LDT 0.1 L
11:36PM LDT 3.7 H

Surf for Thursday – Morning offshores

Thursday is looking good condition-wise…but the surf is going to be a bit on the soft/small side, which may prevent from becoming a real surf day.

In the water we are going to see a mix of S-SW swells (190-210) and WNW windswell…neither of which are going to be very big. I was calling for a little more size in the long-range forecast that I posted on Monday…but the NW’er that was expected to show earlier this week was not able to wrap much energy into Socal, which means that I am cutting wave heights for tomorrow. Still with the mix that will show we should be able to find a few rideable ones.



So for Thursday look for the average spots to pull in fairly consistent knee-waist high waves. The standout S-SW facing breaks, particularly those that like to combo in the windswell, will be a more consistent waist-chest high on the sets, with a few bigger shoulder high sets mixing in on the lower tides. Look for the biggest waves showing through San Diego, a few select areas in Orange County, and Southern Ventura.

Winds for Thursday look good…this funk that has been bothering us the last couple of days is expected to move on out tonight and in the process it will pull winds around to the NE. So for tomorrow morning we can expect E-NE winds around 10 knots at most spots but with some 10-15+ knot gusts coming through the passes and canyons near the beach. Overall it will be sort of a mild Santa Ana (Santana) wind in the morning…but it won’t really be able to establish itself along the coast so we will have a definite onshore switch that will arrive around midday. Expect the afternoon winds to blow out of the NW around 10-15+ knots.



I think that we will be able to have some fun tomorrow, particularly since the morning offshore flow will make our small surf seem a bit more playful. I think that the combo beach breaks will be the best call tomorrow…mostly because the windswell will help to fill in the inconsistency of the S-SW swell. I would plan on bringing your fishy shapes or small-wave gear so that you can squeeze a little more fun out of the swell mix. While the tides aren’t ideal for the morning you will want to surf early rather than wait…if you stall out too long the winds will shift onshore and you will have missed the window.

Here are the tides

02:15AM LDT 0.5 L
08:22AM LDT 4.8 H
02:24PM LDT 1.2 L
08:14PM LDT 5.0 H

Waves for Monday – More foggy surf

Monday will be surfable, but between the fog, and the lame fog winds, I think that it won’t quite be a surf day.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of still peaking NW swell (290-300) and some S-SW swell (190-220). The NW’er has been running more 295-300-degrees for most of the day on Sunday…but looking at some of the latest buoy readings it appears that some of the more westerly elements of the swell are starting to fill in…so the spread will be a truer 290-300, maybe even some energy as low as 285. Overall it will feel like more energy showing at the top NW spots, while a few of the breaks that need the more WNW swell angles will finally start to see some waves, not big ones mind you, but at least something to ride.



Wave heights are going to continue to average in the waist high range for most spots…the better NW breaks and the ok combo spots will be more in the waist-chest high+ range. Top NW facing spots (breaks that like the 295+ swell angles) as well as the best combo spots will have more consistent chest-shoulder high surf with a few bigger sets mixing in at times.

Weather still looks a bit lame…we will continue to see the periods of patchy-but-thick fog, and variable onshore flow that has crept in with it. Look for light onshore flow around 3-5 knots with some areas seeing some occasionally stronger winds. Afternoon winds pick up out of the WNW 10-15 knots.



So for tomorrow I do think there will be surf…it just won’t be all that great…winds and fog will continue to hamper conditions. I think your best bet will be just to stick to your local spots…the onshore bump is going to be mostly out of the west, which screws pretty much everyone. If you don’t mind the bump…I would concentrate on the good combo spots if you are in North LA and Orange County…and the top NW facing breaks in San Diego (mostly South San Diego) and Ventura.

Here are the tides…lets cross our fingers that conditions will improve in the next day or two. (Looks much cleaner later this week).

12:51AM LDT 0.6 L
07:34AM LDT 4.0 H
12:46PM LDT 2.6 L
06:19PM LDT 4.7 H

Waves for the Weekend – Playful weekend surf

Saturday and Sunday are both looking like surf days.

While it won’t be firing or anything it does look like we are going to have a couple of days of playful sizes swell, lighter morning winds, and decent tidal conditions early in the day. Afternoon winds will be a bit funky but if you can get on it early you should be able to have some fun.

Saturday we are going to see a mix of peaking S-SW swell (180-200) from the southern hemi, overlapping tropical S-SW energy (180-200) from TS Enrique and Hurricane Felicia, and some background NW windswell.

On Sunday the southern hemi swell will drop slowly while the small tropical swell continues to push through at exposed areas at least through the morning. NW windswell will remain steady in the background as well.

Check out the sideways CDIP forecast...it isn’t super helpful but you can see some of the shadowed areas affected by the nearshore islands.



Over the weekend we can expect the average spots to hold in the waist-chest high range. Better S facing breaks will be more consistently in the chest high range. Standout S facing breaks will be chest-shoulder high with maybe a couple of rare bigger sets on the morning tide push.

Winds look ok this weekend as well...there is a slight eddy to the morning flow...so OC and San Diego areas may have some weak southerly texture to them, depends a bit on how the eddy center positions itself. It does look like there will be a window close to dawn (or at least the first couple hours after sunrise). Afternoon winds look breezy...mostly W around 10-12 knots with gusts to 15 knots.

Saturday Winds


Sunday Winds


Water looks pretty chilly in most spots...expect low 60’s for most areas, and even colder in other spots. Hopefully the S swell and slight eddy will push a little more warm water in over the next couple of days. Make sure to throw the wetsuit in the car or you might freeze your nibblets off.

Like I said...it will just be playful and surfable but nothing to really write home about. Your best bet is to stick with spots that have good S facing exposure, which will be most of Orange County, Northern San Diego, and parts of Northern Los Angeles. I think you should be able to get away with riding your higher-performance board this weekend...especially if it works good on smaller/faster waves...there will be enough size and consistency at the well exposed spots to get out and smack a lip or two.

Here are the tides...have a great one!

Saturday
05:17AM LDT 0.2 L
11:29AM LDT 4.4 H
05:11PM LDT 1.7 L
10:57PM LDT 4.9 H

Sunday
05:40AM LDT 0.5 L
11:55AM LDT 4.6 H
05:54PM LDT 1.6 L
11:34PM LDT 4.4 H