Sunday, September 27, 2009

Waves for Monday – More foggy surf

Monday will be surfable, but between the fog, and the lame fog winds, I think that it won’t quite be a surf day.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of still peaking NW swell (290-300) and some S-SW swell (190-220). The NW’er has been running more 295-300-degrees for most of the day on Sunday…but looking at some of the latest buoy readings it appears that some of the more westerly elements of the swell are starting to fill in…so the spread will be a truer 290-300, maybe even some energy as low as 285. Overall it will feel like more energy showing at the top NW spots, while a few of the breaks that need the more WNW swell angles will finally start to see some waves, not big ones mind you, but at least something to ride.

Wave heights are going to continue to average in the waist high range for most spots…the better NW breaks and the ok combo spots will be more in the waist-chest high+ range. Top NW facing spots (breaks that like the 295+ swell angles) as well as the best combo spots will have more consistent chest-shoulder high surf with a few bigger sets mixing in at times.

Weather still looks a bit lame…we will continue to see the periods of patchy-but-thick fog, and variable onshore flow that has crept in with it. Look for light onshore flow around 3-5 knots with some areas seeing some occasionally stronger winds. Afternoon winds pick up out of the WNW 10-15 knots.

So for tomorrow I do think there will be surf…it just won’t be all that great…winds and fog will continue to hamper conditions. I think your best bet will be just to stick to your local spots…the onshore bump is going to be mostly out of the west, which screws pretty much everyone. If you don’t mind the bump…I would concentrate on the good combo spots if you are in North LA and Orange County…and the top NW facing breaks in San Diego (mostly South San Diego) and Ventura.

Here are the tides…lets cross our fingers that conditions will improve in the next day or two. (Looks much cleaner later this week).

12:51AM LDT 0.6 L
07:34AM LDT 4.0 H
12:46PM LDT 2.6 L
06:19PM LDT 4.7 H


Anonymous said...

peaking NW'er? really where not anywhere North OC! :(

kelly slater said...

Wow...nobody called the South Swell in the water today and I think you are missing it for was the dominate swell.

Adam Wright said...

The NW shouldn't have been hitting in North OC on Sunday. That NW'er is out's swell direction was just a bit too steep for most spots.

The swell was probably 295-300+ as it filled in and peaked on Sunday. For North OC, pretty much anything over 290 starts to have shadowing issues from the channel islands. Sometimes, if the swell is huge, and the swell-periods are going to cap out around 18+ seconds, then North OC will be able to pull in a swell closer to 295-degrees...smaller swells just can't wrap in all the way.

On Monday the swell will be dropping slowly as the overall energy backs off...but the swell direction is going to shift down to the west, which will let more spots pull it in.

Slater...sorry you couldn't slip past Tiago in France...that sucks. As for the S has been in the forecast for the last couple of days...and it is in the forecast for tomorrow as well...maybe you were thinking of other forecast services? one can always hope :)

Anonymous said...

bahahah today was not a surf day.