Monday, September 28, 2009

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/28/2009

Forecast Overview

We are going to see a mix of moderate S-SW swells mixing with WNW-NW energy over the next couple of days. Winds don’t look that great for Tues-Wed as a weak cold front pushes over the area…but we will likely see some form of a cleanup by Thursday. Rideable sizes will continue through the week..and a stronger S-SW swell will push in through the upcoming weekend.

Short Range (next 3 days)

NW energy (290-300) and S-SW swell (190-210) will both start backing down while the local W-WNW windswell starts to strengthen. Waves will hold in the waist-chest high range for most areas while the standout SW/NW combo spots see some chest-shoulder high sets. Shape will continue to be a bit suspect as onshore winds spin up early and hold steady through most of the day. Winds/Weather: Looks like variable onshore winds in the morning...mostly light but with a chance for some moderate texture in the more open exposed beaches. Look for building WNW winds 10-20 knots as a weak cold front pushes through the area later in the day.

We will have a mix of leftovers from earlier in the week, as well as a new S-SW swell (190-220), and steady NW windswell. Wave heights don’t change much…still mostly waist-chest high at the average exposed areas. Top spots, mostly NW/SW combo spots, continue to see surf in the chest-shoulder high range…with a couple of bigger sets at the standout windswell-combo spots. Winds/Weather: Still a bit funky…sort of variable directions in the morning, with a couple of models showing almost an eddy type circulation developing as the cold front pushes in W-NW winds. Don’t expect clean conditions for most areas…but if the eddy does start up…we could see some slightly cleaner shape at spots protected from the S winds.

Size and consistency come up a notch as more S-SW swell (190-210) and a weak WNW swell blends with the local WNW windswell. Conditions also look like the will improve dramatically with some potentially offshore winds developing as the cold front moves out. Average spots will continue to see surf in the waist-chest high range but with more consistency on the bigger waves. Standout spots see mostly chest-shoulder high surf but with a few near head high sets mixing in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: So far it looks like we might have some mild Santana conditions develop by Thursday, which would mean light-moderate offshore winds though the morning and midmorning. This isn’t set in stone yet (still a couple of days before it develops)…but it worth keeping in mind as you plan your surf week.


North Pacific
NW swell has been pushing into a few of the best NW facing spots over the last few days but hasn’t made that much of an impact on the more “average” spots. This should slowly change over the next couple of days as the last part of the swell, that had a more westerly fetch, pushes in some WNW-NW swell (285-300) that mixes in with steady short-period windswell coming in from a similar direction. Look for chest-shoulder high sizes at the better expose winter spots through the middle of the week and then fading sizes as we head towards the next weekend.

Further Out things don’t look good for the NPAC…high-pressure has built up across the Gulf of Alaska and is now shutting down the storm track. Check it out on the chart…you can see the high-pressures starting to bridge across most of the mid-latitudes. Basically these ridges are blocking the sweet spot in our swell-window…so from a long-range perspective it looks like swell production is going to be very minimal in this region for the time being.

South Pacific
The SPAC has been pushing out some playful sized S-SW swells (190-210) for the last few days…and a new chest-shoulder high sized pulse will hit on Wednesday and hold waves through Thursday before dropping later in the week. Like most Southern Hemi swells…sets will be inconsistent, but fun when they do show.

Further out we will see a stronger, more consistent, S-SW swell (180-210) that starts to move in with long-period energy on Saturday Oct 3rd…and then likely peaks Sunday/Monday Oct 4-5th. At this point it looks like this new swell will push most the average exposed spots into the chest-shoulder high range while the standout breaks will be shoulder-head high, possibly with some bigger sets mixing in at the best S facing breaks. I expect this swell to stick around for a couple of days after the “peak” hits…likely we will continue to see fun/rideable surf through the 6th before it significantly drops.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
This region is looking pretty quiet right now (though it seems like every time I type that a new storm forms…maybe I will just keep writing it). At this point the hurricane models aren’t calling for any development for the next couple of days…but I have noticed some activity showing on the larger-scale GFS models later in the week. Keep an eye on the tropics this week, we might see something new spin up by Friday.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, October 1, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

These weekends have been great, perfect for us 9-5 ers stuck at a desk all week.