Thursday, September 17, 2009

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/17/2009

Forecast Overview
Looks like a surf weekend coming up…we will have a mix of new NW and SSW swell pulsing in over the next couple of days mixing with decent morning tides and light winds. More playful sized combo swell (and more clean conditions) will be on tap for most of next week as well.

Short Range (next 3 days)

New NW swell (290-300) moves into SoCal and overlaps the playful NW pulse that we are already seeing. The new energy will show mostly in Ventura/LA for the morning but will trickle down to OC and San Diego as we move throughout the day. This blend of NW’ers will be mixing with some S-SW energy (190-220), and some background tropical energy. Most NW facing spots and SW combo breaks will hold around waist-chest high on the sets. The standout NW facing spots and excellent combo breaks will be around waist-shoulder high with some bigger sets mixing in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Conditions look clean for the morning with mostly light/variable to light offshore flow. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.

The NW swell (290-300) will hold while a new SSW swell (180-200) moves in later in the afternoon. Wave heights will generally be the same as Friday but we will lose a touch of size at the NW facing spots while the S facing breaks get a little energy. Basically it is a win for the combo breaks. Expect the average spots to hold in the waist-chest high range while the standout NW breaks and good combo spots see some waist-shoulder high surf and some shoulder high+ sets at times. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions continue…mostly light and variable for the morning. WNW winds around 10-14 knots move in through the afternoon.

The NW’er backs off a touch more but the S-SSW swell (180-200) starts to peak. Look for more waist-chest high+ surf at the better S facing breaks, particularly ones that can pull in a bit of the leftover NW’er. Top combo spots will be more in the waist-shoulder high range. Winds/Weather: Winds continue to look good…mostly light and variable to even light offshore for the morning…and just moderate NW winds (10-12 knots) by the afternoon.


North Pacific
The North Pacific is continuing to pick up steam. Of course it hasn’t cranked up to full winter strength but it has been able to roll out a series of playful sized WNW-NW swells that have blended nicely with some playful Southern Hemi swells.

The trend of decent Fall-sized NW swells will continue as we move through the weekend and into next week. New NW energy starts to arrive on Friday and will peak overnight into Saturday before fading slowly on Sunday, (get the size/direction details in the short-range section). The swell sort of stabilizes in the knee-chest high range as we move into early next week…holding rideable waves at the NW facing spots through Monday and Tuesday.

Further Out the forecast charts are showing another decent storm moving through the Gulf of Alaska over the next couple of days that will set up another round of NW energy (290-300) filling in on the 23rd and then peaking the 24th with more waist-chest high+ sized surf at the top spots. Looks like more WNW-NW swell (285-300) moving in on the 25-26th with similar sizes…and then the potential for a bigger, shoulder high+, NW’er around the 27-28th.

South Pacific
While the SPAC has been on the zonal side lately it hasn’t totally shut off swell production…we have a few small S and SW swells moving in over the next several days that will hold playful waves at the S facing and combo spots.

New S-SSW swell (180-200) peaks on Sunday the 20th and holds waves through the 21st. Another similar sized SSW swell (180-205) moves in on the 22nd and holds more waist-shoulder waves through the middle of next week.

Further out in the SPAC it looks like some new storm action pulling together around New Zealand that will poop (that’s right I said poop) out another SW swell (190-210) that will send more chest-shoulder high waves to the top spots around the 27-28th.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Currently we have TS Marty cruising about 200-300 miles SSW of the tip of Baja (about 700 miles SSE of Socal)…he is in our swell window but there is not much to like about him. He isn’t a very strong storm, his wind speeds (and directions) have been questionable, and his position isn’t that great. I don’t expect much, if any, rideable surf from Marty…just a slight increase energy from the SE that may help to prop up the better looking SPAC swells.

There is another tropical disturbance brewing closer to Mainland Mexico…but it is taking its time getting organized…something may spin up over the next couple of days, but it will still have some travel time to reach our swell window, so it looks like our chance for tropical swell is pretty slim at this point.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, September 21, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster


Anonymous said...

Look boys and girls that man just said "poop"

Anonymous said...

He called the sh*t, poop! Who gots the lighter?