Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/17/2009

Forecast Overview
Looks like a surf weekend coming up…we will have a mix of new NW and SSW swell pulsing in over the next couple of days mixing with decent morning tides and light winds. More playful sized combo swell (and more clean conditions) will be on tap for most of next week as well.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Friday
New NW swell (290-300) moves into SoCal and overlaps the playful NW pulse that we are already seeing. The new energy will show mostly in Ventura/LA for the morning but will trickle down to OC and San Diego as we move throughout the day. This blend of NW’ers will be mixing with some S-SW energy (190-220), and some background tropical energy. Most NW facing spots and SW combo breaks will hold around waist-chest high on the sets. The standout NW facing spots and excellent combo breaks will be around waist-shoulder high with some bigger sets mixing in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Conditions look clean for the morning with mostly light/variable to light offshore flow. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.

Saturday
The NW swell (290-300) will hold while a new SSW swell (180-200) moves in later in the afternoon. Wave heights will generally be the same as Friday but we will lose a touch of size at the NW facing spots while the S facing breaks get a little energy. Basically it is a win for the combo breaks. Expect the average spots to hold in the waist-chest high range while the standout NW breaks and good combo spots see some waist-shoulder high surf and some shoulder high+ sets at times. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions continue…mostly light and variable for the morning. WNW winds around 10-14 knots move in through the afternoon.

Sunday
The NW’er backs off a touch more but the S-SSW swell (180-200) starts to peak. Look for more waist-chest high+ surf at the better S facing breaks, particularly ones that can pull in a bit of the leftover NW’er. Top combo spots will be more in the waist-shoulder high range. Winds/Weather: Winds continue to look good…mostly light and variable to even light offshore for the morning…and just moderate NW winds (10-12 knots) by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The North Pacific is continuing to pick up steam. Of course it hasn’t cranked up to full winter strength but it has been able to roll out a series of playful sized WNW-NW swells that have blended nicely with some playful Southern Hemi swells.

The trend of decent Fall-sized NW swells will continue as we move through the weekend and into next week. New NW energy starts to arrive on Friday and will peak overnight into Saturday before fading slowly on Sunday, (get the size/direction details in the short-range section). The swell sort of stabilizes in the knee-chest high range as we move into early next week…holding rideable waves at the NW facing spots through Monday and Tuesday.



Further Out the forecast charts are showing another decent storm moving through the Gulf of Alaska over the next couple of days that will set up another round of NW energy (290-300) filling in on the 23rd and then peaking the 24th with more waist-chest high+ sized surf at the top spots. Looks like more WNW-NW swell (285-300) moving in on the 25-26th with similar sizes…and then the potential for a bigger, shoulder high+, NW’er around the 27-28th.

South Pacific
While the SPAC has been on the zonal side lately it hasn’t totally shut off swell production…we have a few small S and SW swells moving in over the next several days that will hold playful waves at the S facing and combo spots.

New S-SSW swell (180-200) peaks on Sunday the 20th and holds waves through the 21st. Another similar sized SSW swell (180-205) moves in on the 22nd and holds more waist-shoulder waves through the middle of next week.



Further out in the SPAC it looks like some new storm action pulling together around New Zealand that will poop (that’s right I said poop) out another SW swell (190-210) that will send more chest-shoulder high waves to the top spots around the 27-28th.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Currently we have TS Marty cruising about 200-300 miles SSW of the tip of Baja (about 700 miles SSE of Socal)…he is in our swell window but there is not much to like about him. He isn’t a very strong storm, his wind speeds (and directions) have been questionable, and his position isn’t that great. I don’t expect much, if any, rideable surf from Marty…just a slight increase energy from the SE that may help to prop up the better looking SPAC swells.





There is another tropical disturbance brewing closer to Mainland Mexico…but it is taking its time getting organized…something may spin up over the next couple of days, but it will still have some travel time to reach our swell window, so it looks like our chance for tropical swell is pretty slim at this point.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, September 21, 2009


Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.Socalsurf.com

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/14/2009

Forecast Overview
Waves heights will slowly fade from the weekend but won’t drop too far thanks to a mix of new SW and new NW energy that moves in over the next couple of days. We can expect more new NW and SW energy to move in later this week and help keep playful waves at the exposed beaches through next weekend. Man I love Fall...

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
The NW swell (290-300) will be slowly winding down as it mixes with some SW swell (200-220) and some leftover tropical SW energy. The average spots will be in the waist-chest high range. The standout NW facing spots, as well as the best combo spots, will be in the waist-shoulder high...with a couple of rare plus sets showing at the top NW breaks during the low tides. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to variable-onshore for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.

Wednesday
Wave heights will sort of stabilize as we head into the middle of the week. New energy from both the NW and the SW move into to reinforce the fading swell from earlier in the week. Most spots will continue to see surf around waist high with some less consistent chest high sets. Standout breaks, again mostly the NW facing ones, but with a few of the better combo breaks mixed in as well, will be in the chest high range with some less consistent shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to variable-onshore for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.

Thursday
Overall size will drop a touch...but more NW energy (295-300) in the blend of local windswell and background NPAC energy will move in and continue to send in playful waves to the best exposed areas. Look for more knee-waist high surf at the average spots. Standouts will be more in the waist-chest high range...but the top NW facing spots will still have some rare shoulder high sets mixing in. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to variable-onshore for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Activity in the North Pacific is starting to pick back up...nothing all that great showing yet but there are a lot of good indicators of seeing a significant increase in WNW-NW swell. In the short-run we are going to see a steady, but steeply swell-angled, pulse of NW swell in the form of windswell and background NPAC energy...this will be arriving through the middle of the week, helping hold up the fading NW swell that hit this last weekend. It won’t be much bigger than shoulder high even at the top spots...but it will keep the “winter breaks from going flat.

Further out we are going to see another weak/moderate storm move under the Aleutians later this week that will push some waist-chest high+ NW swell (290-300) our way for the 19-20th. Check it out on this chart...(it is the broader low-pressure) under Alaska...



What really interests me on this chart...and the later parts of the forecast run is Typhoon Choi-wan. That storm is forecast to make a swing through the waters east of Japan and then go extra-tropical as it moves into the high-latitudes. Generally when this happens we see the storm track get very unstable and start to brew up some much more intense storms as the energy locked in the warm tropical low are released. I expect to see an increase in storm strength in the NPAC later this week...who knows we might see a better looking storm form up in a few days...

South Pacific



The SPAC continues to roll along...almost exactly how the forecast charts have been calling it. Storm action has been a bit on the zonal side...but there has still been enough fetch to kick out some rideable sized swells. We are going to see a mix of smaller, less consistent, SW swells for the next few days…and then a slightly better SSW swell (190-210) moving in around the 18-19th.

Over the next few days the SW swell (205-220) that peaked over the weekend will be fading out...but it won’t drop too far thanks to some reinforcement from the SW (200-220) that arrives with waist-chest high+ surf on the 15-16th.

A slightly stronger pulse of SW swell (190-220) moves in on the 19th and peaks into the 20th...this one will be good for chest-high surf at most of the S-SW facing spots and larger sets around shoulder high+ at the standout SW breaks. This will actually be followed by another pulse of SW energy (210-220) that fills in on the 22nd and holds into the 23rd before dropping...it doesn’t bring any more size but it will help string along the wave heights from the first swell a little longer.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
It is quiet down in the tropics all of a sudden...almost too quiet. OK it isn’t completely shut down but actual tropical storm activity has dropped off now that Linda has dissipated. There are a couple of areas that are worth keeping an eye on though...looks like a large areas of thunderstorms are forming just to the SSW of Central Mainland Mexico. The hurricane models are showing signs that the atmospheric conditions are improving and we might see these thunderstorms become more organized over the next couple of days...and that there is a chance that we could see a new tropical-depression or storm form later this week.






Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, September 17, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.Socalsurf.com

Tuesday’s Surf – More summer fun

Tuesday is going to be a surf day.

The leftovers from the weekend will still be dropping on Tuesday but the surf isn’t going to fade too far thanks to a new building SW swell (190-210). This new SW’er will be filling in through the morning, peaking later in the day, and then holding into Wednesday. There will also be a bit of WNW windswell (and some weak, longer-period, WNW energy) holding in the background.



Our surf is going to be a more manageable waist-chest high at the average spots, as well as a few bigger chest-shoulder high sets on the more favorable tides. The standout SW facing breaks, and good combo spots, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with a few inconsistent head high faces sneaking through.



Winds are going to be pretty decent on Tuesday. Look for light and variable to slightly southerly morning winds, with the cleanest conditions at spots with high-cliffs and kelp. A few of the really exposed beaches may have a bit of light texture. Afternoon winds return out of the WNW around 10-15 knots.

Now that the southern hemi swell isn’t steamrolling all of the combo windswell it looks like shape is starting to improve at the beach breaks. Points and reefs will likely continue to be the call from an overall shape standpoint but the beach breaks with exposure to both swells in the mix will be a good second choice. With the warm water, light winds, and still fun swell there isn’t a lot of reason no to get in the water tomorrow.

Here are the tides…

02:46AM LDT 3.2 H
08:17AM LDT 1.7 L
03:11PM LDT 5.0 H
10:51PM LDT 1.2 L

Surf for Monday – Some cleaner combo swell

Monday looks like a surf day.

We will have a mix of new S swell (170-180), some SW energy (190-215), and some background NW windswell.



Waves will be in the waist-chest high range at most of the exposed spots. The standout S facing breaks (mostly in Orange County) and excellent combo spots (mostly in San Diego County), will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bigger set now and then on the lower tides but I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for them either.

Winds will be fairly clean. Mostly light and variable throughout the region…with some very light southerly flow for a few of the more exposed breaks. In general I expect semi-glassy conditions through the morning. NW winds come onshore in the 10-15 knot range by the afternoon…expect the water temps to cool off a touch as these winds start to tear things up.



I think it will be fun tomorrow…nothing outstanding, just sort of playful. If you can I would try and get on it early before the tide fills in…too much water is probably going to swamp out the shape a bit, particularly at spots (like the ones in parts North OC) where the sandbars got chewed up by the bigger S swell last week. If you do have to surf later in the day…try and stick to spots that can handle the tides.


03:59AM LDT -1.6 L
10:26AM LDT 3.6 H
03:00PM LDT 2.0 L
09:12PM LDT 6.9 H