Waves heights will slowly fade from the weekend but won’t drop too far thanks to a mix of new SW and new NW energy that moves in over the next couple of days. We can expect more new NW and SW energy to move in later this week and help keep playful waves at the exposed beaches through next weekend. Man I love Fall...
Short Range (next 3 days)
Tuesday
The NW swell (290-300) will be slowly winding down as it mixes with some SW swell (200-220) and some leftover tropical SW energy. The average spots will be in the waist-chest high range. The standout NW facing spots, as well as the best combo spots, will be in the waist-shoulder high...with a couple of rare plus sets showing at the top NW breaks during the low tides. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to variable-onshore for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.
Wednesday
Wave heights will sort of stabilize as we head into the middle of the week. New energy from both the NW and the SW move into to reinforce the fading swell from earlier in the week. Most spots will continue to see surf around waist high with some less consistent chest high sets. Standout breaks, again mostly the NW facing ones, but with a few of the better combo breaks mixed in as well, will be in the chest high range with some less consistent shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to variable-onshore for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.
Thursday
Overall size will drop a touch...but more NW energy (295-300) in the blend of local windswell and background NPAC energy will move in and continue to send in playful waves to the best exposed areas. Look for more knee-waist high surf at the average spots. Standouts will be more in the waist-chest high range...but the top NW facing spots will still have some rare shoulder high sets mixing in. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to variable-onshore for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.
Long-Range
North Pacific
Activity in the North Pacific is starting to pick back up...nothing all that great showing yet but there are a lot of good indicators of seeing a significant increase in WNW-NW swell. In the short-run we are going to see a steady, but steeply swell-angled, pulse of NW swell in the form of windswell and background NPAC energy...this will be arriving through the middle of the week, helping hold up the fading NW swell that hit this last weekend. It won’t be much bigger than shoulder high even at the top spots...but it will keep the “winter breaks from going flat.
Further out we are going to see another weak/moderate storm move under the Aleutians later this week that will push some waist-chest high+ NW swell (290-300) our way for the 19-20th. Check it out on this chart...(it is the broader low-pressure) under Alaska...
What really interests me on this chart...and the later parts of the forecast run is Typhoon Choi-wan. That storm is forecast to make a swing through the waters east of Japan and then go extra-tropical as it moves into the high-latitudes. Generally when this happens we see the storm track get very unstable and start to brew up some much more intense storms as the energy locked in the warm tropical low are released. I expect to see an increase in storm strength in the NPAC later this week...who knows we might see a better looking storm form up in a few days...
South Pacific
The SPAC continues to roll along...almost exactly how the forecast charts have been calling it. Storm action has been a bit on the zonal side...but there has still been enough fetch to kick out some rideable sized swells. We are going to see a mix of smaller, less consistent, SW swells for the next few days…and then a slightly better SSW swell (190-210) moving in around the 18-19th.
Over the next few days the SW swell (205-220) that peaked over the weekend will be fading out...but it won’t drop too far thanks to some reinforcement from the SW (200-220) that arrives with waist-chest high+ surf on the 15-16th.
A slightly stronger pulse of SW swell (190-220) moves in on the 19th and peaks into the 20th...this one will be good for chest-high surf at most of the S-SW facing spots and larger sets around shoulder high+ at the standout SW breaks. This will actually be followed by another pulse of SW energy (210-220) that fills in on the 22nd and holds into the 23rd before dropping...it doesn’t bring any more size but it will help string along the wave heights from the first swell a little longer.
Northeast Pacific Tropics
It is quiet down in the tropics all of a sudden...almost too quiet. OK it isn’t completely shut down but actual tropical storm activity has dropped off now that Linda has dissipated. There are a couple of areas that are worth keeping an eye on though...looks like a large areas of thunderstorms are forming just to the SSW of Central Mainland Mexico. The hurricane models are showing signs that the atmospheric conditions are improving and we might see these thunderstorms become more organized over the next couple of days...and that there is a chance that we could see a new tropical-depression or storm form later this week.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, September 17, 2009
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.Socalsurf.com
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