Thursday, September 3, 2009

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/3/2009

Forecast Overview

Small surf on tap for the next couple of days…looks like longboards will be needed for most spots. Look for a slight pickup by Sunday/Monday as a new, but small, SW swell starts to creep in and the local windswell inches up a couple of notches.

Short Range (next 3 days)

We see a small mix of mostly leftover energy. Weak WNW-NW swell will mix with weak SW swell, and the NW windswell will come up slightly. Most spots will be in the knee-high range while the standout NW facing breaks and the combo spots see some waist-waist high+ sets on the morning low tides. Winds/Weather: Light and variable through the morning with some pockets of light texture. WNW winds 10-14 knots move in through the afternoon.

We see more leftovers…and touch more NW energy. Expect mostly the same soft surf…knee high waves at the average breaks and a few waist high+ sets at the best windswell and combo breaks. Winds/Weather: Light and variable again, maybe a touch of S texture in SD and OC but cleaner in other areas. WNW winds 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

Our surf comes up slightly…a new, but shadowed and small, SW swell (200-220) starts to move in and mix with slightly building NW windswell. Average spots, with exposure to the SW’er, will be around knee-waist high. The standout combo breaks, mostly through San Diego, will be in the waist-chest high range, but inconsistent on the sets. Winds/Weather: More light/variable morning conditions but with a touch more westerly winds early. Still clean most places. Look for building WNW winds around the 10-14 knot range by the afternoon.


North Pacific
Not too much going on up north right now…we do have a couple of weak low-pressures pushing through the higher latitudes, right up under the Aleutians and deeper in the Gulf of Alaska, but unfortunately they are both going to be positioned too North for them to send us any real swell. Over the next few days we are going to see a mix of increasing local NW windswell and some background NW energy (295-300) from those lows. It looks like the peak of this mix will move in over the weekend and again early next week with surf around waist high at the NW facing spots and maybe a few chest high sets at the best standout windswell breaks.

Long-range charts aren’t looking great right now either, but there is a tropical system that is forecast to go extra-tropical in about 5-6 days…as it does it looks like it will pump some extra energy into the storm track. If we get lucky we might start seeing some better looking swell activity around the middle of the month.

South Pacific
The SPAC hasn’t been all that active over the last few days…in fact it is looking like we are going to see a bit of a “small-spell” through the beginning of September. It won’t be flat or anything, but I am not expecting any significant swells from the region at this time. So for the next few days we can expect a mix of SW swell (200-220) moving in from a weak mid-latitude storm that sort of drifted slowly across the SPAC just under the Southern Pacific Islands. Waves from this one will be minor, knee to maybe waist high, as it limps in over the weekend (Sept 5-6th.)

This weak storm did eventually re-energize slightly as it moved into a better position in the swell window, so we can expect a pick up in SW energy (200-210) later on the 6th and then peaking the 7-9th. Peaking is sort of a relative term since the surf will continue to hold around knee-waist high, but a few of the standouts will have some chest high sets.

Further out on the forecast charts there is some slightly better looking storm action. We have a couple of storms, one underneath New Zealand and another over by Chile that will both likely send us some swell. This next round of swell, both SE (170-180) and SW (205-220) will begin arriving on September 12th with chest high+ waves at the best exposed spots. Those waves will hang around for a few days and it looks like more similar sized SW energy will help to reinforce the first pulse around the 15-16th.

Like I said…not a ton going on…hopefully the forecast models will start showing some more activity in the next couple of days.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Not much going on in the Tropics (for SoCal), though TS Jimena is trying to drown a lot of central Baja.

Jimena moved over land yesterday, and the combination of moving off of the water and upper level wind shear has pulled apart her convection and greatly reduced her intensity. She is expected to dissipate back to a remnant low as she drifts back to the west. No waves from her, in any form, are expected as she weakens.

Elsewhere, there is a bit of tropical disturbance SSW of the tip of Baja…but it looks like a low chance that it will develop into something anytime soon.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Adam Wright

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

.... starved then inundated! WTF! ...Summer blows!