Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Surf for Thursday – Morning offshores

Thursday is looking good condition-wise…but the surf is going to be a bit on the soft/small side, which may prevent from becoming a real surf day.

In the water we are going to see a mix of S-SW swells (190-210) and WNW windswell…neither of which are going to be very big. I was calling for a little more size in the long-range forecast that I posted on Monday…but the NW’er that was expected to show earlier this week was not able to wrap much energy into Socal, which means that I am cutting wave heights for tomorrow. Still with the mix that will show we should be able to find a few rideable ones.



So for Thursday look for the average spots to pull in fairly consistent knee-waist high waves. The standout S-SW facing breaks, particularly those that like to combo in the windswell, will be a more consistent waist-chest high on the sets, with a few bigger shoulder high sets mixing in on the lower tides. Look for the biggest waves showing through San Diego, a few select areas in Orange County, and Southern Ventura.

Winds for Thursday look good…this funk that has been bothering us the last couple of days is expected to move on out tonight and in the process it will pull winds around to the NE. So for tomorrow morning we can expect E-NE winds around 10 knots at most spots but with some 10-15+ knot gusts coming through the passes and canyons near the beach. Overall it will be sort of a mild Santa Ana (Santana) wind in the morning…but it won’t really be able to establish itself along the coast so we will have a definite onshore switch that will arrive around midday. Expect the afternoon winds to blow out of the NW around 10-15+ knots.



I think that we will be able to have some fun tomorrow, particularly since the morning offshore flow will make our small surf seem a bit more playful. I think that the combo beach breaks will be the best call tomorrow…mostly because the windswell will help to fill in the inconsistency of the S-SW swell. I would plan on bringing your fishy shapes or small-wave gear so that you can squeeze a little more fun out of the swell mix. While the tides aren’t ideal for the morning you will want to surf early rather than wait…if you stall out too long the winds will shift onshore and you will have missed the window.

Here are the tides

02:15AM LDT 0.5 L
08:22AM LDT 4.8 H
02:24PM LDT 1.2 L
08:14PM LDT 5.0 H

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

The NW didn't wrap in? It was head high this morning in Encinitas/Cardiff. We even had a few overhead sets.

I can't figure out whether you forecast mostly for the OC or not. If it's not too much trouble, could you let us know a little more what to expect at W facing beaches throughout SD?

I can't see the waves said...

Don't know what part of Encinitas/Cardiff you were looking at but Swamis was 2-3 feet at best. Cardiff reef seemed a little bigger on the high tide, but head high???

You know what head high is, right?

These forecasts have been spot on as far as I'm concerned. The problem is we have all these dawn patrol/newbie/corporate/hero-in-there-own-mind/spring suit-bootie men who clog the lineups every morning.

They get worked up about standing up on a 2 foot close-outs on their 9'0" pop-outs and then go home and claim the waves were head high.

I remember when real surfers were only out in the morning. That was the catch-you woke up early and you got to surf without these meatheads.

Now the swamis parking at 6:30 in the morning is a joke. Retards pulling SUPs out of their Mercedes and 45 year old beginners comparing Costco fishes. And don't even get me started on all the republicans over at Pipes or Cardiff.

This shows just how sad the North County surf scene has gotten-we have dumbasses who can't even tell the difference between a head high wave and a 2 foot mush burger.

I'm probably going over board on this one but it really just gets old.

With that said, I apologize for all these in-breeds newbies commenting from North County-They just moved here from Indiana so they are still figuring things out.

Please continue to provide us with your informative forcasts that I come to every day. You doing a great job.

Anonymous said...

Whoa buddy. Other people were there as well. I left around 9. It slowed down fast as the tide swamped. Don't get insecure about your surf cred, and don't question mine. That's retarded. Anyone that does that is retarded. Not sure what to say, but the waves were there. You missed it. Now go to hell because you're every bit as annoying as that dude that just moved here from Indiana (oh, but you came from Florida).

I looked at Swamis. It was smaller than down the reef. Swamis doesn't pull in the windswell like the almost beach reef breaks down the way. Of course, you could have checked Del Mar as well.

Adam does fine work. Pointing out differences in our perceptions helps me understand and get better sessions. Maybe someday a surfer will learn that discussion leads to better understanding and precision. It's idiotic to get so defensive and outright question the facts. I just want to learn his language and be able to better understand his forecast.

Anonymous said...

kooks are starting to take over surfing, sad so so sad!!
Us good surfers must take over all the kook surfers with all are power tell its to late to do anything.

Adam Wright said...

Hey gang...I definitely appreciate the feedback on all fronts...the more details I get the better I can dial in the forecasts for you guys.

And I can understand and even share can't-see-the-wave's frustration with crowds...Socal is a crowded place, and sometimes it feels like our surf is a finite resource...trying to find your (and my) share of quality waves can be maddening at times. I could go on...but I think all of us, even the guys just starting and the experienced ones, all feel the same way at one point or another.

As for the NW swell that I was saying didn't "wrap in"...should have clarified that I meant the long-period swell from the extra-tropical Choi-wan storm...that swell was a bit of a bust. The med-period windswell (8-11 second stuff) that SD pulled in today/this morning, brewed up last night and sort of slipped though the forecast window, forming up after I had posted it and walked away from the computer. I never like missing swells but occasionally they do slip through.

Just a note on the forecasts as well...I am working on some ways to give some tighter regional information (say on a county level)...hopefully I will be able to roll it out before too long...and that you guys will be stoked on it.

Cheers

Adam

deckmanx said...

If you don't have fun, don't surf!

Anonymous said...

South of Point Conception is soft 97% of the year; get used to it or move away.

j said...

The forecast is about as good as it's going to get and it's free. If you want detailed county info, maybe drop some big donations Adam's way and keep it private.

How detailed do you want? So 300 of your not so best friends can show up at the same spot you do? Maybe Adam should give a county wide break by break break down so that way everyone will show up to the same spot at the same time. Now that's not a bad idea.

Come on, use this as a guide not a mantra. Do some homework on your own.

Anonymous said...

I saw Pipes pulling in some OK waves. Definitely not head high but at least fun on the bigger waves. Mushier than hell, but OK.

Either way was better than I had expected.

I can see where Anon is going. Lets face it the surf sucks in North County. Its always small and we get the odd ball macking day like once every other year. Kind of messes with your size perception and these little burgers can seem pretty big at times since its always sooo small!

I was put in my place about a year ago on a trip to the Gold Coast. The waves seemed over-head to me, but even the groms were telling me it wasn't more than 2-4 foot.

Goes to show how us North County surfers have a tendency to stretch the the truth in terms of wave sizes when ever we can.

Anonymous said...

There is a reason why Hawaiians measure a wave by the back not the front. I'm 6'7. A grom surfer who is 5'0 might have a completely different idea of what head high is.

Perspective. Regardless who cares? Did you get to surf? Yes? Well then you've had a good day. /story

Anonymous said...

you kooks have ruin surfing in southern california forever. i hope for your sake, adam you don't give out anymore information when you do your forecasting. it's good how it is and if these kooks can't figure it out by now then they shouldn't be in the water in the first place.

Anonymous said...

Long live the Republicans! Democrats are dick draggers, and Obama is your leader. Remember Hawaii?

SC fool said...

B.O. stinks.