Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Tropical Update – Tropical Storm Marty

New tropical activity brewing up today...TD-16e formed early this morning and has now strengthened into Tropical Storm Marty.

TS Marty is inside our swell window but he is hanging just on the SE edge of it...which isn’t the best location for sending swell to SoCal since lots of our areas stay pretty shadowed. At this point the storm is real lopsided with a lot of the cloud convection occurring on westward side of the system (the side that has winds aiming away from us) can see some spin on the lower levels of clouds but it is hard to tell if the storm is really putting some wind on the water. Check him out on the visible satellite image...looks like he is hanging a bit to the left.

If you can’t tell I am not super stoked on Marty...he isn’t the strongest storm, he doesn’t have great circulation, and a lot of his swell generating side is right on the edge of the swell window. On the other hand he does have a couple of points in his favor...he is relatively close to SoCal (aprox 1000-1100 miles), he is forecast to strengthen slightly, and he is moving very slow (but deeper into the more southerly part of our swell window).

So at this point I am expecting some SE energy from Tropcial Storm Marty...but I think it is going to be minimal...likely chest high and below for the best spots...with the energy arriving on Thursday/Friday. As usual a lot depends on how he behaves over the next couple of days...if things improve I will let you guys know.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I'm way down for a little Choi-Wan and Marty oceanic dancing around the 26th