Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Surf for Thursday – A little more combo to the mix

Thursday is looking surfable...winds and the swell looks ok...but the higher morning tide may keep plenty of spots from reaching their full potential.

In the water we are going to see a mix of new SW swell (190-220) and some new NW energy (290-300) from a little storm that jammed through the NPAC swell window a couple of days ago. Neither swell will be very big, but they will be mixing with some leftovers from earlier in the week that may help them fill out the surf a touch better.

Since the NW’er is starting to hit NorCal and the buoys around Point Conception, namely the CDIP Harvest Buoy, the energy is being fed into the model’s graphics...and we can see (sort of) how it will filter into Socal tonight and into tomorrow. Check out the regional charts.

Wave heights aren’t going to change much in overall size tomorrow...but the swell is going to hit a bit differently as the swell directions change. So for Thursday look for the average SW and NW facing spots to stay in the knee-waist high range with a few waist high+ sets through the lower morning tides. The top spots, particularly the best NW/SW facing combo spots, will be in the waist-chest high+ range with a few bigger shoulder high sets mixing in at times. I think that the better SSW-SW facing combo spots will be a bit more consistent than the predominantly winter breaks

Winds...hmmm...I have been hearing the Santana (Santa Ana’s) term getting bandied about today...and we are definitely getting into that season...but I don’t think we are going to quite get to a full-fledged one quite yet. At this point it looks like light/moderate offshore flow for the morning, N-NE mostly around 5-8 knots but with some areas of stronger gusts, particularly at areas with passes and canyons along the beach. The winds will help conditions stay clean through the morning but moderate W winds around 10-14 knots will move in through the afternoon.

Thursday Morning Winds

Look for more fog along the beach in the morning, but expect it to try and push off and burn off through midmorning/lunch. The inland areas are going to be bummed since the air temps are going to get pretty toasty (100-degree+ in a few areas), but along the beach it will a bit cooler (particualrly through the morning).

Thursday afternoon baking

So for tomorrow...I am looking for rideable, slightly fun, conditions as the swell mix combos won’t be epic or anything, but just an average Socal Fall day. The tides are going to be a bit of a bummer...the low in the morning isn’t much of a low (still 2.9-feet at the lowest), so you are going to want to stick with spots that can handle a little more water. Trying to find a spot that can pull in as much swell as possible and still be able to handle some extra tide will be your best bet...South SD, the better S facing spots in OC, and Southern Ventura will have the best wave potential tomorrow...but it won’t be worth driving very far to check those regions.

Here are the tides...

02:49AM LDT 3.1 H
06:03AM LDT 2.9 L
12:57PM LDT 4.8 H
09:29PM LDT 1.0 L

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