Waves for the Weekend – SW swell and some tropical SE-S swell from Hurricane Celia

Overall I would call this weekend rideable…but it will be hampered from reaching its true potential by local winds. (Stupid Eddy…I bet it is controlled by the dolphins.)

There will be surf this weekend…we have new SW swell (190-220) starting to fill in on Saturday, eventually peaking on Sunday and holding into Monday. On Saturday we will also have a mix of background tropical energy, some SW leftovers from TS Blas and some new SE forerunners form Hurricane Celia, but neither will bring in very much size. Look for NW windswell to hold steady in the background.



We can expect average spots to see surf in the chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets pulsing in at the better SW facing breaks. The top S-SW spots and the excellent combo breaks will have more consistent chest-shoulder high surf with some head high sets showing by the end of the day. Maybe even a few plus sets at times at the best sets.

Winds look light in the morning…with a little W flow around Santa Barbara and Ventura, variable winds throughout LA, and light Southerly winds for Orange County and San Diego. Most areas will see winds below 10-knots, but expect some texture at the more open breaks.



Sunday the SW swell (190-220) will start to peak, while new tropical SSE-SE swell moves in from Celia and the NW windswell continues to stick around in the background.



Average spots with S-SW exposure will see surf in the chest-head high range…a little inconsistent on the sets if the break is only exposed to the SW energy. The standout S facing spots, particularly the breaks that can pull in both SW and SE swell like a few of those in Orange County, will have surf in the shoulder-overhead range…with some larger sets, likely a couple of feet overhead, showing by late in the day. (the peak of the tropical swell will likely arrive on Monday).

Winds look a bit lighter on Sunday…the eddy flow will still be out there, but in general it won’t be as intense. Look for light onshore texture from the W in SB and Ventura…with some more variable winds in LA. OC and SD will see the light S winds again…but winds look slower, more in the 3-5 knot range, and they get a later start too…coming in right around dawn, which should suppress the wind bump a little more.



I think there will be some fun this weekend…even some occasionally healthy sized surf as the two SW and SE swells peak. I am still being a bit conservative on the Hurricane Celia swell…especially now that she has started to back off her intensity (she is down to a Cat-4 and is still weakening)…but there is always a chance that she could have out-produced her estimated wind speeds…so I would keep an eye on the buoys as we head into Sunday and Monday.

I think the points and reefs are going to have the best shape…with these SE-SW swells in the water it is bound to get pretty lined up at the beach breaks (the SE facing beach breaks will be particularly walled up and will see a lot of side-shore and rip currents once the tropical swell fills in). Like I said above…the buoys and live swell models (like the CDIP) are going to be your friends this weekend…make sure to use them to home in on the exposed areas, (or avoid them if you want smaller surf).

Here are the tides…happy hunting this weekend…stay safe!

06/26/2010 Saturday
04:26AM LDT -1.0 L
10:53AM LDT 3.6 H
03:28PM LDT 2.2 L
09:33PM LDT 6.0 H

06/27/2010 Sunday
05:01AM LDT -0.9 L
11:27AM LDT 3.6 H
04:07PM LDT 2.2 L
10:08PM LDT 5.8 H

Waves for the Weekend – Eddy still kicking it on Saturday…but conditions clean up Sunday

Saturday will be rideable but the eddy winds are going to stick around…so it won’t be very clean for most areas. Sunday conditions clean up (thanks to backing down winds)…and a new S-SW swell starts to fill in.

Yep, the eddy is still holding on pretty strong (oh and thanks for all of the anonymous comments telling me about it…haha, jerks, now I have to go have a cry after writing this) and at this point it doesn’t look like it is going to back down all that much as we head into Saturday. Fortunately there are a handful of spots that can handle the S winds…so there will be some surfable, even semi-clean, waves on tap for Saturday morning. Swellwise we are going to see a mix of steady WNW-NW windswell (285-300…but still mostly showing at spots with the steeper 290-300 exposure), some leftover S-SW swells (180-210), and some very long-period SW swell (190-210 @ 20 seconds) that will be slowly filling in on the buoys throughout the day (but not showing much on the beach until Sunday).



Sizewise we can expect the average exposed spots, both WNW and SW, to see surf in the waist-chest high range…while the better WNW-NW facing breaks see some shoulder high sets. The standout NW facing breaks in Ventura and the South Bay will see some shoulder-head high surf…and the best breaks in Southern SD will have some overhead sets showing on the lower tides.

Weather will still be a bit funky on Saturday…overcast skies and eddy winds will be on tap for the morning, which means that Orange County and San Diego will have some S winds in the 5-8 knot range. Los Angeles will have lighter S-SE winds in the 4-6 knot range. Ventura and East Santa Barbara will see some ESE flow for the morning…mostly below 10-knots…but expect the winds to flip onshore pretty fast after the dawn patrol. All of the regions can expect W-WNW winds around 10-15+ knots for the afternoon.



Sunday looks to be more surfable and warmer as the winds back down, new S-SW swell arrives, and the overcast skies burn off early. We can expect the WNW-NW windswell to back down a bit more on Sunday as the winds in the outer waters trail off…but we have new S-SW swell (190-210) filling in throughout the day.



Average spots will continue to see surf in the waist-chest high range on Sunday…but the better combo spots and the more SW facing breaks will see more consistent chest-shoulder high sets on the lower tides. The standout SW facing spots, mostly through South OC and parts of San Diego, will be in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets starting to show by the afternoon.

Winds look better for the morning…mostly light and variable, with a few pockets of texture (on and offshore) depending on how the weak ridge of pressure filters through the region. Look for building WNW-NW winds around the 10-15+ knot range by the afternoon. Weather looks nicer too…warmer air temps and sunnier skies thanks to the clouds moving out earlier in the day.



So that pretty much sums up the weekend…some rideable, but not super clean waves on Saturday…and then cleaner conditions on tap for Sunday. It is worth noting, (most of you have noticed already) that the eddy is being a pain in the ass and not really following the forecasts all that much…so it would probably be best to keep an eye on the conditions when your surf windows roll around. The local-level winds are so “spot specific” that you might luck into a cleaner session than you expect…or you could get shafted if the winds turn a couple of degrees the wrong way.

Here are the tides…have a good weekend…and go USA! (it would be nice to get some World Cup love on Saturday).

06/12/2010 Saturday
04:18AM LDT -1.2 L
10:46AM LDT 3.6 H
03:17PM LDT 2.1 L
09:27PM LDT 6.4 H

06/13/2010 Sunday
05:00AM LDT -1.3 L
11:29AM LDT 3.6 H
04:03PM LDT 2.1 L
10:11PM LDT 6.3 H

Thursday’s Surf – New WNW/SW swell and more rain out the back

Thursday is looking pretty surfable but there may be a few areas, namely Santa Barbara and Ventura, that will have some wind issues in the morning.

New mix of WNW-NW swell (280-300) and new SW swell (190-215) began moving in some new, long-period energy on Wednesday…adding touch more size in the afternoon but will be mostly filling in more after dark. Check out the buoys from this afternoon (Oceanside Buoy for the SW swell mix and the Harvest Buoy for the WNW-NW energy)….



The new swell mix will peak on Thursday…showing biggest at spots with good WNW-NW exposure…but setting some fun waves at the good combo spots as well. Looks like high tide will keep things soft through the morning but if winds can hold off shape and consistency will improve through midday.



Sizewise we can expect the average WNW facing spots and the good combo breaks to be in the chest-head high range on Thursday…maybe a little smaller/less-consistent through the morning. The better WNW-NW facing breaks and excellent combo spots, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will have shoulder-overhead surf with sets going a couple of feet overhead at times.

A new cold-front is forecast to move through the region late tonight and then move out on Thursday…driving some early NW-N winds in a few areas. Right now it looks like Santa Barbara and Ventura will have some N-NW winds around 10-15 knots for the morning…possibly stronger as you get out towards Point Conception. LA, OC, and San Diego will see more light/variable winds early in the morning, maybe a chance of some pockets of onshore texture here and there…but the onshore winds are expected to push in pretty fast, likely chunking things up around midday. More rain is forecast to move in on Friday and over the weekend…hopefully we will get a chance to enjoy the swell mix before it arrives.



So we have new swell, even some combo swell, showing on Thursday…but the weather is trying to work us over. Once again we are going to be sort of caught between a high morning tide with cleaner conditions and the lower tides with building onshore winds. Personally I think that there will be enough new swell at the standout breaks that it should be able to work even with the higher tide, particularly at spots that can handle a little extra water. I am thinking about getting on it early, rolling the dice with the tide, and trying to beat the wind…I hope this works out but I am not holding my breath either.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/25/2010 Thursday
05:56AM LST 5.8 H
01:17PM LST -1.1 L
07:37PM LST 3.9 H

Surf for Thursday – A little more combo to the mix

Thursday is looking surfable...winds and the swell looks ok...but the higher morning tide may keep plenty of spots from reaching their full potential.

In the water we are going to see a mix of new SW swell (190-220) and some new NW energy (290-300) from a little storm that jammed through the NPAC swell window a couple of days ago. Neither swell will be very big, but they will be mixing with some leftovers from earlier in the week that may help them fill out the surf a touch better.

Since the NW’er is starting to hit NorCal and the buoys around Point Conception, namely the CDIP Harvest Buoy, the energy is being fed into the model’s graphics...and we can see (sort of) how it will filter into Socal tonight and into tomorrow. Check out the regional charts.









Wave heights aren’t going to change much in overall size tomorrow...but the swell is going to hit a bit differently as the swell directions change. So for Thursday look for the average SW and NW facing spots to stay in the knee-waist high range with a few waist high+ sets through the lower morning tides. The top spots, particularly the best NW/SW facing combo spots, will be in the waist-chest high+ range with a few bigger shoulder high sets mixing in at times. I think that the better SSW-SW facing combo spots will be a bit more consistent than the predominantly winter breaks

Winds...hmmm...I have been hearing the Santana (Santa Ana’s) term getting bandied about today...and we are definitely getting into that season...but I don’t think we are going to quite get to a full-fledged one quite yet. At this point it looks like light/moderate offshore flow for the morning, N-NE mostly around 5-8 knots but with some areas of stronger gusts, particularly at areas with passes and canyons along the beach. The winds will help conditions stay clean through the morning but moderate W winds around 10-14 knots will move in through the afternoon.

Thursday Morning Winds


Look for more fog along the beach in the morning, but expect it to try and push off and burn off through midmorning/lunch. The inland areas are going to be bummed since the air temps are going to get pretty toasty (100-degree+ in a few areas), but along the beach it will a bit cooler (particualrly through the morning).

Thursday afternoon baking


So for tomorrow...I am looking for rideable, slightly fun, conditions as the swell mix combos up...it won’t be epic or anything, but just an average Socal Fall day. The tides are going to be a bit of a bummer...the low in the morning isn’t much of a low (still 2.9-feet at the lowest), so you are going to want to stick with spots that can handle a little more water. Trying to find a spot that can pull in as much swell as possible and still be able to handle some extra tide will be your best bet...South SD, the better S facing spots in OC, and Southern Ventura will have the best wave potential tomorrow...but it won’t be worth driving very far to check those regions.

Here are the tides...

02:49AM LDT 3.1 H
06:03AM LDT 2.9 L
12:57PM LDT 4.8 H
09:29PM LDT 1.0 L

Waves for the Weekend – Some new swell on Sunday

This weekend will have a few rideable waves but conditions and tides may hamper shape.

At this point Sunday is looking like more of a surf day than Saturday but winds may pick up a bit early on Sunday that could tweak things.



Swellwise on Saturday we are going to see mostly fading SW swell and small WNW windswell. Wave heights are going to be mostly around knee-waist high at the average spots. The standout SW facing spots will have some chest high sets, but even those areas are going to be on the weak side as we see the tail end of the swell and the higher tides keeps things pretty burgery. Look for light onshore winds in the morning on Saturday and WNW flow 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

Sunday a new SW swell (200-220) and slightly bigger NW windswell begin to fill in. The morning will start off pretty slow as the very first part of the new SW’er starts to arrive. For the morning expect more knee-waist high surf at the average spots and some slightly more consistent chest high sets at the standouts. Look for SW’er to slowly fill in throughout the day building the exposed spots into more consistent chest high sets and the standouts into the shoulder high+ range. Tide and afternoon winds will likely hamper shape as the swell starts to peak but if you have a spot with a little protection you might be able to pick off a few playful ones.

Sunday’s winds will be similar to Saturday...light onshore, with some bump at exposed areas. WNW winds 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

Check out the COAMPS for the next couple of mornings...

Saturday


Sunday


I don’t know that I would call this weekend a “surf weekend”...mostly because of the tide and the wind will be problematic...but at the same time, it is summer, a weekend, the water is warm, and it won’t be totally flat, all of which sound like decent reasons to get in the water. I guess if you head out with the right expectations then you could have a little fun. Anyhoo I don’t know about you guys but I am ready to start this weekend...

Here are the tides...have a good one!

Saturday
02:05AM LDT 0.0 L
08:50AM LDT 3.5 H
12:58PM LDT 2.8 L
07:05PM LDT 5.4 H

Sunday
02:42AM LDT -0.2 L
09:17AM LDT 3.6 H
01:43PM LDT 2.6 L
07:45PM LDT 5.6 H

Waves for Wednesday – more swell and a little storminess

Wednesday will have some more waves but thanks to conditions it doesn’t look like a surf day.

The current mix of WNW energy will increase on Wednesday with both the short and longer-period swells gaining a bit of strength. We will also have a new pulse of SSW swell starting to push into the mix…not a ton…but enough to break it up at the combo spots.

Wave heights will build into the chest-shoulder high range at most exposed W facing breaks and the better combo spots. The top WNW facing breaks in San Diego and Ventura as well as the best combo breaks in the other regions can expect sizes in the chest-head high range fairly consistently with some overhead sets mixing in at times. San Diego looks like it will be the most exposed and will be the most consistent but there will be plenty of waves at the other regions as well.

Winds and weather are where the wheels come off…we have this lovely storm/cold front sitting off the coast.



The current forecast models are showing the front brushing over Socal and heading off to the NW over central California…enough to give us a few scattered showers and some funky windage. Not a real storm but enough to sort of hack up the surf shape. Here is what the current COAMPS model is calling for…



It is mostly onshore wind on this model…but there is a little weird buffer between the stronger winds off the coast and the actual beach. This is showing 7-8am…so there may be a chance at some surf in select areas. Basically I would expect variable onshore flow around 5-8 knots tomorrow morning for most areas and some stronger S-WSW winds around the Santa Barbara and Ventura areas. The afternoon looks even sloppier with W winds around 10-15 knots.

What I am hoping is that it gets really cold tonight…if it does there is a shot at a little high-pressure ridge setting up over Socal that could bump the front further north…leaving us with some manageable winds in the morning. I don’t have a lot of faith in this happening (it is the worst winter ever)…but it is worth watching for.

Basically I would plan on giving the cams a check in the morning and, if your local spot looks clean enough, then heading to the beach. It is supposed to be drizzly, a little cool, and have some onshore sickness…so I don’t think it will be worth driving very far. Hopefully we will get lucky and we can get some of this swell mix before the winds tweak it too much.

01:47AM LST 4.8 H
10:25AM LST 0.1 L
06:06PM LST 2.8 H
08:29PM LST 2.7 L

Thursday’s Surf – Random morning surf report

So since I was trapped on a plane again on Wednesday I missed the forecast…but I did get a lot of text messages from my friends telling me that the surf was finally good on Wednesday (well not “good” but better than the mess we had over the last few days). So I was properly tortured.

Anyway, I was looking at the cams and the beach this morning and it looks like we have some fun, if a bit high-tide swampy, surf out there this morning.

Our swell is a mix of new WNW energy, some background SW swell, and a touch of leftover windswell. We also have a new storm that is holding off the coast about 800 miles that will be slowly leaking in some W-WNW swell throughout the day and should start to peak later tonight and into Friday.

On average the WNW breaks and the good combo spots are seeing chest-shoulder high surf. It is soft thanks to the tide but clean in the SD, OC, and LA areas, and a little funky up around Ventura/SB (the winds are little more side shore lumpy for the few spots I could see around there).

I think that as the tide drops (and if the winds hold together) we should start to see some bigger head high and head high+ sets at the standout NW facing spots by the afternoon.

Here are the tides…I will be back to the normal update schedule by this afternoon

05:14AM LST 4.5 H
12:59PM LST -0.1 L
07:45PM LST 3.3 H

Waves for Wednesday – Doctor I feel a pulse!

Wednesday isn’t going to be a great surf day but it is going to be a little more rideable than the last couple of days.

We are going to see a small pulse of inconsistent SW swell (200-220) and a slow increase in WNW energy (285-300) in the background. You can see on the CDIPper that there is a little of the mix showing in the model this evening...should be a touch more of both by tomorrow.



Overall we are not going to see a huge jump in the surf...the average exposed breaks will move into a more consistent knee high range. The better standout combo breaks will be more in the inconsistent waist high range...and a few of the top spots, mostly in San Diego and Orange County, will have a few scattered chest high sets by later in the afternoon.

Winds look good too...mostly offshore through the morning...sort of an E-ESE bend to it. Check out the COAMPS for tomorrow morning. (I don’t think it will be as intense as this is calling for but I think it has the general idea).



Afternoon winds will be fairly calm as well...mostly variable around 10-12 knots.

So while we are going to see some slightly better waves tomorrow it isn’t going to be stellar...I would still recommend your small wave gear, probably longboards, for most spots. The morning is going to be pretty inconsistent but we should see a general increase in consistency as we head toward the end of the day. Don’t spend a lot of time driving for waves...but if you close enough for a driveby I would give it a look (or spend a little quality time checking the cameras).

As for Thursday...conditions are still looking a bit nasty...but there is a chance at S-SE winds through the morning dawn-patrol that may help us see a few pockets of cleaner conditions. Forecasts are not showing this little window lasting long so it may even be gone before the sun comes up...but at least we have a chance (1 in a 1000? More like 1 in a million Lloyd) of getting some of the increasing W-WNW swell before the winds and the rain turn it to poo.

Here are the tides for Wednesday...

03:40AM LST 5.2 H
11:54AM LST -0.2 L
06:48PM LST 2.9 H
10:19PM LST 2.5 L

Tuesday’s Surf – Taking my sweet time with these forecasts

Tuesday is looking pretty surfy…winds continue to look good and we have a fun combo mix of WNW and SW swell…now we just need a certain surf forecaster to get off his butt and tell us about it.

Swellwise…We have a fading but still healthy push of WNW energy (both short and medium period stuff coming in from 285-300), and some new SW swell (200-220) that is filling in as well. The SW’er doesn’t look great, it had to come in from a shadowed section of the SPAC but it should punt in a few sets to the better exposed combo breaks.



On average we are going to see most of our surf coming from the WNW swell mix. Look for the average spots that can pull in some of WNW’er to have surf in the waist-chest high+ range with some shoulder high sets. Standout WNW facing breaks, mostly through San Diego (but in a few other areas as well) will have some shoulder-head high+ sets through the morning. Combo spots will be similar in size but may be a touch less consistent.

Winds look good for the morning again. We should have light and variable to light offshore flow for most spots. There may be a couple of spots of texture but in general they will be pretty localized. Look for those winds to shift around out of the WNW-NW around 10-12+ knots for the afternoon.

I think there are going to be plenty of waves out there tomorrow. Santa Barbara will probably be a bit smaller than the other regions (look at the CDIP map). So if you usually surf those more exposed areas there will be plenty of places to check…I would probably stick with the breaks that can pull in the WNW energy or at least the better combo spots. Again I think the beach breaks will do better, particularly if there is something like a pier or jetty to break up the swell. Points and reefs will still be fun but may be a bit sectiony off the shorter-period swell.

Tides for Tuesday

12:38AM LST 1.2’ Low
06:48AM LST 6.1’ High
01:51PM LST -0.5’ Low
07:56PM LST 4.1’ High

Waves for the weekend - Happy Halloween!

We are going to have some surf this weekend. The waves are already in the water but actual shape/conditions are going to depend a lot on the approaching cold front. Right now it looks like the storm is stalling out and won't be able to push as much wind/rain over SoCal as the earlier forecasts predicted...we may still get some weather Sunday and Monday but it looks a lot more rideable on Saturday.

Hopefully this storm will fizzle out completely before it gets to the SoCal coast and just let us have the surf without jacking up our winds and weather.



Oh by the way the Daylight Savings Time switch is this weekend...make sure to set your clocks (Saturday night at 2am!)

To make the forecast a little more clear I broke each day out into its own section.

Saturday's Surf - The new SW'er (190-210) will hold while WNW (280-300) energy begins to build. Most spots will push into the waist-chest high+ range. The standout SW facing spots and the good combo spots will have chest-head high sets through the morning and some potentially overhead sets by the afternoon.

Saturday's weather - Looks like we could get a surf window on Saturday...winds are expected to be light and variable through the morning and then stay on the light side (under 10-knots) through most of the afternoon. Hopefully it will be clean enough that we can finally get some halfway decent combo swell.

Sunday's Surf - The SW swell holds but a new pulse of W-WNW swell (270-300) starts to arrive. It will be showing pretty well in Santa Barbara and Ventura in the morning but won't really get going in LA, OC, and SD until late in the afternoon evening (it will peak in those areas overnight into Monday). Average spots will be in the chest-shoulder high+ range while the standout W facing breaks and the combo spots see overhead sets.

Sunday's Weather - Not as good as Saturday...W winds around 5-10 knots through the morning with some increasing clouds. W winds 10-20 knots by the afternoon with the potential for gusts topping out around 25 knots.


Saturday will likely be the best day...but not the biggest since the majority of the W-WNW swell arrives Sunday and Monday. Still there should be plenty of surf at the well exposed spots. San Diego will have the most size/consistency overall but there will be fun waves at most of the better combo spots throughout the other regions as well. I don't think that you will have to drive too far for surf, there will waves all over, but you may want to focus on spots that aren't super wind sensitive.

Sunday...well I am not ready to write off Sunday totally...but personally I am going to be keeping a "weather eye" on conditions around my house as well as the buoys and the cams...I am hoping that winds stay light through the morning, at least enough that we can get a few waves before the winds come up.

Here are the tides...

Saturday
12:14AM 3.4' High
04:13AM 2.7' Low
10:34AM 5.4' High
06:29PM 0.3' Low

Sunday
01:24AM 3.2' High
03:30AM 2.9' Low
10:07AM 5.1' High
06:24PM 0.6' Low

And finally have a great holiday tonight...Happy Halloween! Stay safe!

Tuesday's Surf - Slow pick up

Tuesday will be a small surf day...it will be rideable but slow and a bit soft overall.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of S-SW swells, (one fading and new one slowly filling in), and some local NW windswell.

Most spots with some exposure to the SW'er will be around knee high with some waist high sets. Spots that will be working off just the NW windswell will be mostly knee high and below.

Standout SW facing breaks and good combo surf spots in San Diego and Orange County will have surf more consistently around waist high...with some sets getting close to chest high on the lower tides.

Winds are looking good...mostly light and variable in the morning with some increasing W flow around midday that tops out close to 10-12 knots later in the afternoon.

Here is a look at the latest CDIP Model...this is showing the "Nowcast" from Monday afternoon. By tomorrow morning there will be a bit more SW swell leaking in to the exposed areas.




While it won't be really all that good it will have more "push" than the weekend, particularly at the standout OC and SD areas. Is it worth $4.49 a gallon to get to those spots? No not really...but if you are close by those will be best bet.

Really it might be nice to get out and start to shake the dust off from this latest flat spell...we have more surf, both from the Southern Hemisphere and the tropics, on tap later this week so look for increasing surf to start arriving by Thursday and building into the weekend.

Wednesday's Waves - Rideable but with more of the lame-o bump

Wednesday will be a surf day but once again conditions/shape will be on the marginal side for some areas.

In the water we will have a mix of new SW energy (210-220) and more local NW windswell. Wave heights will continue to hold in the waist-chest high range for most of the average exposed breaks. Standout combo spots, mostly in San Diego, will have some chest-shoulder high faces sneaking through on the morning tide push. Here is a shot of the Tuesday afternoon CDIP model...Wednesday will be very similar but with a little more SW energy filling in.



Morning winds are expected to continue the weak eddy that we have seen over the last couple of mornings. Look for mostly light/variable winds with some onshore NW texture for the northern areas (like Santa Barbara and Ventura) and W-SW texture for Orange County and San Diego. LA County will be marginally cleaner in the morning, well at least it will have better winds, the surf will only have slightly better shape than the other areas. Afternoon winds come onshore out of the W-NW around 10-15 knots (the usual). Check out the NWS/NOAA graphic forecast for Wednesday morning (8am). As you can see I am back to drawing ugly arrows in photoshop.




It will be rideable tomorrow but I don't think that it will be all that fun. The mix of swells is still a bit fugly...too much of the actual wave heights will be powered by the short-period windswell (4-6 second swell periods which really suck for surf). The SW'er will send in some occasionally decent sets to the exposed breaks but I think it is going to be inconsistent enough to make surfing the rest of the crap pretty frustrating. Your best bet will be to hit up a really shallow sandbar that can pull in the combo swell... I would try and get on it in the morning so the winds are lighter...if you wait too long and it will be pretty sloppy.

Thursday’s Surf – Finally a few clean waves

Thursday looks like a halfway decent surf day.

We will have a mix of slowly fading WNW windswell, leftover S-SW swell, and some new SW swell (200-220) that will be arriving with long-period energy through the morning filling in slowly throughout the day.

Most exposed breaks will hold surf in the knee-chest high range. Standout SW facing spots, and good combo breaks will be more consistently around chest high and will start to see a few chest-shoulder high sets sneaking through as we get closer to the afternoon.

The new SW’er may be a little inconsistent at times so expect to wait around for sets.

Winds will be much better than we experienced on Wednesday. Look for them to start off mostly light and variable to light ESE (down through OC and San Diego)…all areas should stay below 5-knots in the morning. These winds shift onshore through the day and eventually push in out of the W around 10-12+ knots for the afternoon.

San Diego and South OC will likely be your best bet for surf tomorrow. They will both have decent exposure to both the WNW and SW swell mix, which will let the windswell fill in the gaps between the SW sets. The north South Bay and Southern Ventura will be decent fall-back regions but won’t have much of the building SW energy.

Don’t expect it to be outstanding tomorrow…just a lot better than it has been for the last few days. I would still probably make a cam check in the morning…just so you don’t get skunked by the tide…or pick a shadowed spot on accident.

Friday’s Surf – More SW swell and something bright and shiny to look at

Friday will be a surf day…but the swell is a little shadowed for a few areas and it looks a bit inconsistent even for the exposed areas.

In the water we will have a mix of slowly building SW swell (210-220) and some local NW windswell.

Most breaks will be in the knee-waist high range while the standout breaks, in San Diego, South OC, the north half of the South Bay, see some shoulder high sets. (See my cool new wave height box…is it not nifty?)




Winds look good for the morning. Mostly light and variable through the dawn patrol. Expect onshore W winds around 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

The swell slowly builds throughout the day so look for more consistent and bigger sets as we head toward sundown.

For the best surf you are going to want to stick with the exposed areas…the swell already has some shadowing problems from going through the SPAC islands but as it approaches the coast you are going to see even more (and heavier) shadowing from the nearshore islands like Catalina, San Clemente Island, and the Channel Islands. Expect longer waits between waves but fun sets when they do show.

From an overall exposure standpoint San Diego will be the best region to hunt around for some surf. The other areas will be less exposed but will still have a few playful waves at the SW facing spots.

Unfortunately I am locked down in the North OC swell shadow for the day…but I may break out my ugly-stick longboard to catch a few at lunch.

Oh hey make sure to send me some feedback if you like the wave height chart…it is sort of a pain to produce but if you guys like it I will keep posting it. Wave heights are in face size if you were wondering.

Random SW Swell Alert – The South Pacific is heating up!

We have a new storm setting up an overhead+ SW swell for Baja, Mainland Mexico, and Northern Central America. (After it smacks Tahiti along the way naturally). The same storm will be sending a smaller, but still healthy, version of the SW swell to Hawaii and California.

(if you just want the swell details…skip this next part…seriously if you don’t you will just get pissed at my rambling)

After a couple week hiatus it looks like the South Pacific is finally starting to get its act together. It has been a slow couple of weeks so it will be nice to have some more juice showing out in the line-up. This last gap between storms (translation total lack of significant Southern Hemi swell) that we have just had is actually fairly normal for the SPAC.

When you look at the big picture you start to see that most of the storm/wind/wave energy in the Southern Ocean (the band of ocean that circulates around Antarctica) moves in a west-to-east pattern…forecasters generally refer to this a “zonal flow”. Unfortunately we need a storm that breaks out of the zonal pattern, trying to change its latitude, and in the process sets up fetch that is aimed toward our regions. This happens quite a bit but not always in a location that is ideal for sending us surf (like on the other side of Australia, or up next to South America).

A sort of dumb analogy for the process is to picture the South Pacific as a pot of boiling water with the storms being the bubbles that boil to the surface…but only way cooler because when a bubble forms in the right spot it sends us a good swell.

Anyway there are a couple of triggers that cause these “bubble” storms to form…and they almost always involve some sort of energy transfer from a warm-weather area to a cold-weather area. A particularly violent example of this is when you get warm tropical moisture that moves into the cooler upper-latitudes. This process is generally called a tropical based storm (or air-mass) going “extra-tropical”. I could totally bore you with the physics behind latent-heat energy in water…but then my brain would hurt all weekend…so just trust me when I say that there is a lot of energy in tropical moisture…and as the air-mass carrying it cools that energy needs to go somewhere. And it does…usually in the form of strong winds in a bad-ass storm.

I can already hear you out there…”gee Adam that is great but tell us about the swell already weather-nerd!”

Hahaha…jerks. I actually wanted to bring the process to your attention because it is just this “extra-tropical” process that is setting up this next swell.

Here I made a cool chart!



On the chart you can actually see two low-pressures. One is a tropical system and the other a colder mid-latitude low. If you follow the numbers you see the tropical system take a slow dive towards Antarctica…and in the process it expels a ton of energy as it cools. This energy tries to spread out but instead is gathered in by the following storm system.

By slide #5 the cold storm, which is moving in a great direction for all of our surf spots, has jumped in intensity, likely it would have had about 30-40 knots of wind in the core but now, thanks to being jumpstarted by the extra-tropical system, it is seeing winds closer to 60-65 knots (which is the lower end of the wind speeds in the CAT1 Hurricane category). Basically the storm has jumped from being an average to below average swell maker to a good-swell producer.

To cap it off the cold storm continues to push the good area of fetch into the lower latitudes and sort of seals the deal on the swell energy heading towards Mainland Mexico. Anyway…just thought I would share some of the mechanics behind this next swell.

OK Finally the swell details (the hungover may continue reading now)

Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America – There is actually plenty of smaller swells sending in surf to this region right now. So if you are down there or planning on going down there you will have some fun-sized overhead surf while you are waiting for the bigger SW’er to arrive. This swell that I was just talking about will actually start to arrive with long-period energy on the 19th and then peak on the 20-21st. Most breaks will build into the shoulder-overhead+ range with sets going 2-3’ overhead+ at times. Deepwater breaks will be closer to double-overhead on the big sets.

Baja Sur Mexico – The SW swell (210-220) is actually pretty westerly in swell angle so it hits Baja Sur about the same time it moves into Mainland Mex. Most pacific side spots will see this swell start to hit later on the 19th…but it really fills in more on the 20th and eventually peaks into the 21st. Look for lots of shoulder-head high waves at the well exposed areas. Standout spots will have some bigger sets...but expect some inconsistency at times.

Southern California – The SW swell moves in on the 20th, actually following a small playful one that hits around the 17-18th. This new bigger SW’er (200-220) ends up peaking on the 21st and into the 22nd. Due to a little shadowing from the South Pacific it won’t be as big or consistent as the other regions. We can still expect the average breaks to be around waist-shoulder high. Standout spots, mostly in North San Diego and Southern Orange County, will have some bigger head high+ sets at times. NOTE: The forecast for SOCAL has be REVISED...please see this post for the more current details.

Hawaii – There is a good portion of fetch heading toward the islands…so we will actually see decent sized S swell arrive on the South Shores around the 16th…and eventually peaking on the 17-18th. This one looks good for shoulder-overhead faces with sets going 1-2’+ overhead as the swell peaks at the top breaks.

As usual I will give some updates on this swell as it gets closer…particularly if size or timing needs adjusting…so check back for more details.

Wednesday’s Waves – Overhead swells…Get on it!

Wednesday there is going to be plenty of surf…maybe even a little too much for some areas. There should be decent shape at spots that can handle the swell mix.

In the water we have a mix of new SW swell (185-210) and new WNW swell (280-300)…both of which are already showing some solid energy on the buoys. These swells will start to hit their peaks overnight and hold energy into Wednesday…the WNW’er will actually hold into the weekend as more reinforcing swells move in behind it.

Wave heights will be consistently in the shoulder-head high range for the average exposed spots. Top SW and WNW breaks will see overhead+ sets. Standout spots, particularly the combo breaks, have to potential to go a couple of feet+ overhead on the bigger waves.

Winds should be good as well, at least through the morning. Expect variable to NW flow around 3-5 knots in the morning and then onshore NW winds around 10-15 knots by mid-afternoon.

You are basically going to be able to surf any where you want tomorrow. There will be enough swell in the water that almost every spot, except the most protected, will have some sort of surf coming through. Your best bet is going to be a spot that can handle a little juice…some of the beach breaks may have a little too much water moving around...so you might think about the better points and reefs. Because these swells have some longer-period energy there may be some deceptive lulls between sets…make sure to watch the beach for a while before paddling out.

Random Side Note: I surfed HB at lunch here on Tuesday and it was freaking good…some easy 4-6’ sets with some nice a-framed shape and open shoulders…if the wind had been offshore it would have been unreal.